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Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency (thehill.com)
goethes_kind 2 hours ago [-]
From a game theoretical perspective this is a good result. It is a clear reiteration of the message to the Democrats: you won't win by claiming to be 0.1% less bad. The Democrats should have fielded a strong personality in their own right. This is not about left or right. It's about mobilizing people by giving them something to care about. "More of the same" and "not like that guy" isn't very enticing.

I don't think the policy positions even matter that much, if you can make a strong case and gain the confidence of the electorate.

ryukoposting 1 hours ago [-]
As someone living in WI who got barraged with ads from both sides, that wasn't the messaging anyone saw AFAICT. The biggest issue on people's minds was the economy. Dem messaging on economic policy was nonexistent. Women's healthcare isn't an issue that resonates with young (read: unmarried) men. It should, but it doesn't. There could have been some "look out for your wife" messaging, but there wasn't.

There's a lot of people in the comments parroting whatever narrative they cooked up for 2016, but the reality is that both candidates' approaches were wildly different this time around.

mnky9800n 51 minutes ago [-]
More than that, I think there was a lot of democrat messaging that the economy is the greatest its ever been because of Biden. When I would say, it is because of Nvidia, haha. and what does that have to do with the price of milk or eggs for some random american?
llamaimperative 32 minutes ago [-]
Nvidia has literally nothing to do with record low unemployment.
torginus 14 minutes ago [-]
I'm pretty sure some guy who made it big on stocks now can afford to have his front deck renovated.
ryukoposting 44 minutes ago [-]
The fact that Tim Walz made it through a 90 minute debate without mentioning the CHIPS act a single goddamn time absolutely blows my mind.

Dems could try to explain why Trump's economic policy made the US economically brittle, leaving Biden no choice but to pay the piper to avoid a depression. You're not going to woo voters with that kind of narrative, though, even if it's the truth.

cranberryturkey 10 minutes ago [-]
you got it buddy, been in tech (silicon valley) for 25 years. I got laid off in August 2023 and the market sucked even back then. No recruiters reach out anymore. Back in 2022 it was twice a day or more.
mschuster91 29 minutes ago [-]
Yeah, that's the core. Politicians love to claim "the economy is good!"... but if the people see it in their daily lives that almost none of that supposed "good" makes it into their pockets, there will be problems. People aren't stupid ffs.

Many people got raises after the inflation shock... but rent hikes ate that up, prices for food and staples didn't go down despite fuel/energy prices going low, and many people didn't get raises at all or (especially in the tech sector) got laid off entirely.

llamaimperative 19 minutes ago [-]
People literally are stupid. Inflation was a global phenomenon, clearly not “caused by” POTUS, and the US managed it far better than every peer.

The idea that if you don’t like inflation you should vote Trump is pretty much the definition of stupidity.

dalmo3 3 minutes ago [-]
This is why the US is so great. You debase the dollar, the whole world suffers, and you can still claim "we've outperformed our peers". Fantastic.
15155 11 minutes ago [-]
The global inflation in question was a result of the COVID over-response. I imagine the indirect deaths from negative economic impacts far exceeded the 0.1% IFR COVID-19 peaked at.
llamaimperative 6 minutes ago [-]
Which was neither an American nor a Democratic Party phenomenon, and again the US did better with recovery than anyone else by a huge margin.

Revisionist history points toward COVID response being a left-wing thing, but there was almost zero variation in policy state to state. The only point of variation was school reopening schedules.

The one thing that was knowably wrong to do at the time we did it was to deliberately slow down testing to keep Trump’s numbers looking good. Everything else was flying blind and to the extent we made mistakes (visible in retrospect), we made fewer of them than any of our peers.

mschuster91 15 minutes ago [-]
People are still feeling it in their wallet every time they go grocery shopping. The greatest mistake of the Biden era was to ignore the cost of living explosion and the uncontrolled greed.
llamaimperative 12 minutes ago [-]
They absolutely didn’t ignore the cost of living explosion or uncontrolled greed.

Kamala proposed several policies targeted at those problems. Many of which I disagree with, but it’s demonstrably untrue they “ignored” it.

The American people were just lied to successfully by the world’s biggest liar.

pineaux 1 hours ago [-]
Yeah. Most democrat leaning people here and outside are not reading the situation correctly. We are currently in the process of the creation of a new world order. Its happening everywhere. Right-wing, anti-immigrant, egomaniacs with little respect for democracy as we know it are taking power in all of the western influence sphere. It might be because this is the way countries like China/russia can undermine the hegemony of the west. It might be because of the way the internet works that takes away power from the systems that used to work. Or what we could conclude that the story the liberals/left are telling all over the world implicitly locks out most people that vote and is self destructive. Either way. Don't believe the pundits they are consistently wrong.
coderenegade 52 minutes ago [-]
The anti-immigration thing is because the great experiment of mass migration has failed to work for the average person, and the political left have failed to show up with an answer, a policy, a plan -- anything, really. People are voting for candidates who are at least willing to pay lip service to the issue. I don't know how bad it is in the US, but in the rest of the West, it's been a disaster. Overcrowded cities, erosion of quality of life, strained services, competition for housing, suppression of wages, the complete abandonment of on-the-job training, falling tertiary education standards, minority enclaves with values that are fundamentally incompatible with the West... The list goes on.
bjourne 25 minutes ago [-]
How you figure immigration is the cause of all that? You might as well add hemorrhoids and back pains to your list.
astrange 6 minutes ago [-]
Immigration opponents just make up things so they can claim immigration caused it. The biggest tell is that they mention wage suppression, because they think it'll make them sound sympathetic - but there is absolutely zero evidence that immigration lowers any native wages, rather it most likely increases them because of increased demand.

That and employment for prime aged (i.e. not retirement age) Americans is as high as it's ever been.

adrianN 8 minutes ago [-]
Where I live I have the impression that cities are overcrowded because that’s where the jobs are. I don’t think immigration is the main problem, but I don’t know the actual data.
okeuro49 46 minutes ago [-]
It's getting really noticeable across every western democracy.

The far-left strategy seems to be clientele politics, and attempting to rule over the fractured result.

arp242 18 minutes ago [-]
Everyone in Europe has been talking about it for decades and many parties on the left have nuanced views on it, and they're certainly not ignoring it. In the US, "the wall" Trump was banging on about in 2016 already existed. Deportations under Obama were higher than under Trump, and higher still under the Clinton administration.

Secondly in many countries "the left" hasn't really been in power for a long time; often government are in the centre or centre-right.

anovikov 30 minutes ago [-]
But well, immigration has to only increase. Many of the problems of the West are due to insufficient immigration. And at the present time, we don't even care much about quality. We need just "bodies": whoever is willing to come, ideally those who are likely to have lots of children (although their birthrate falls dramatically once in). Because a generation down the road, those people will run out and countries will be competing hard to get ANYONE in.
n4r9 49 minutes ago [-]
All the things you listed are a result of neoliberal austerity politics much more than they are a result of immigration.
cassepipe 31 minutes ago [-]
You would need to show up with data to back up those claims.

I live in (around) a major city. Sure it's overcrowded but that has nothing to do with foreign immigration and everything to do about it being a economic powerhouse. Quality of life has been increasing since the city has invested/is investing in more transportation/bikeable lanes/better air pollution standards/less noise. Also laws that are forcing better insulation standards are a net quality of life both in terms of comfort and footing the bill. Even the people who really need to take their cars will benefit because there will less traffic jams on account of 1. people for whom it was mostly comfort leaving the road and 2. reduced speed means less unnecessary braking to get out and in the motorway around the city.

Strained services seems to be because of budget tightening. It's a policy choice that has to do with ideology (don't fund a service when it could made profitable by outsourcing it) and trying to save on budgets because of a bad economy. Again you'd have to back up with data that it has something to do with immigration.

I could on and on but basically what you are saying there was too much new people too fast but I don't think this is nowhere true in my western european country.

The only thing that could worry is the minorities enclaves but it's not hard to break up a ghetto by opening it up sociogeographically and economically, you just need to the political will to do so but instead it's left in place and used as convenient fear-mongering tool for politicians.

sampo 2 minutes ago [-]
> Sure it's overcrowded

The Guardian (a left-leaning newspaper) estimates that leaving the housing crisis unfixed also fuels the far right parties.

https://www.theguardian.com/news/article/2024/may/06/fix-eur...

amarcheschi 24 minutes ago [-]
If wages are suppressed and you look at some guy making less than you with a different skin color, I think you're looking at the wrong guy.

I agree with what you say, I regret not having voted in my Italian city and now third places have been closed because not profitable

Jensson 18 minutes ago [-]
Supply of cheap labor lowers wages, not sure why you believe otherwise. There are other things that can lower wages, but cheap supply is a factor.
astrange 2 minutes ago [-]
This is the lump of labor fallacy. Adding people increases demand more than supply, meaning it increases wages. Immigrants also have complementary skills to natives, which further reduces risk.

There is no empirical evidence of anyone's wages being lowered by immigration.

https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/repost-why-immigration-doesnt-...

amarcheschi 13 minutes ago [-]
I'd rather have solidarity with other average Joes than put the guilt on them, just because they're enabling someone to pay lower wages shouldn't put the responsibility on their shoulders
cranberryturkey 6 minutes ago [-]
If Trump deports all the H1Bs I'll be happy.
emilfihlman 17 minutes ago [-]
You'll get a lot of hate for saying these things, but it's good you said them.

People really need to face reality and that our society simply cannot sustain even limited immigration if those people end up as a negative for the state in terms of financials.

astrange 6 minutes ago [-]
The US doesn't give immigrants welfare, and they pay taxes, so that would be difficult.
immibis 39 minutes ago [-]
What you're observing is that:

- there's immigration

- normal people are getting shafted

However, the two things are entirely unrelated.

However, the ones doing the shafting tell people they're related so often that people believe it.

Once again, we see a tactic identical to Nazi Germany. Hitler rose to power by saying the terrible economy was because of the Jews.

jvmboi81 18 minutes ago [-]
That's really a quite very unrefined view of Hitler's rise to power. If you really want to prevent Hitler then you have to prevent the end-stage of the Weimar Republic. So, you'd need a strong economy, rule of law, public order and a culture of decency and trust. What makes people yearn for autocratic rule isn't "blaming the jews" it's the everyday circumstances that arise when liberals are done running a place into the ground. Like California, at the moment.
Rinzler89 10 minutes ago [-]
>it's the everyday circumstances that arise when liberals are done running a place into the ground.

Not just running the place into the ground, but also actively lecturing people how everything is fine and how it's their perception that is wrong. That's what really pisses people off and gets the to vote extremists as those tend to at least acknowledge some of the issues average people are facing or seeing.

Average working class people don't like being lectured by upper class higher educated elitists off their high horse on how they're wrong.

UniverseHacker 30 minutes ago [-]
This is simply the ancient political strategy of blaming our problems on groups of people that are different, and not actually taking responsibility to identify and fix the real causes. It is a formula as old as time for despots to seize power by fabricating an enemy that doesn’t exist from peoples prejudice and fear.
vidarh 43 minutes ago [-]
That is going to be explosive because there isn't a developed economy anywhere that can avoid major crises without maintaining or increasing immigration levels over the coming decades as the effects of fertility rates really start to bite.

In the UK we saw the Tories try to play the ball in two places at once: Enable lots of immigration while simultaneously pretending the country was under siege to appeal to the anti-immigrant crowd. It blew up in their faces in a spectacular way.

ben_w 21 minutes ago [-]
While I'd like that to be an accurate description of why the Tory party lost, my understanding is that the migration topic was basically the only thing the Tories did that continued to resonate with voters, and what actually lost them was a continuing series of incompetent leaders, starting with Cameron (who didn't realise the mic was still hot immediately after resigning). Nobody (of any party) liked May, Johnson got away with pleasing lies until Partygate, Truss was a forgettable joke, and Sunak was basically Jim Hacker.

IMO the only reason the Tories didn't lose sooner was that the Labour party was also stuck with Corbyn.

15155 26 minutes ago [-]
How about door 3: only allow immigration for skilled individuals capable of adding outsized value to our economy?
ben_w 18 minutes ago [-]
As a person who can be described that way: why would I want to migrate to any country whose leaders were elected on a platform of hating migrants?

"Oh but not like you, you're one of the good ones!" - imagine yourself being described that way, and ask if that's a crowd you care to spend your time living with.

15155 9 minutes ago [-]
> why would I want to migrate to any country whose leaders were elected on a platform of hating migrants?

"Hating migrants" != "want only the migrants that pull their own weight"

Why would you personally want to immigrate to a place where you are immediately expected to foot the bill for everyone else?

deniscepko2 16 minutes ago [-]
It works if your existing population is willing to do unskilled labour. Which in my country is not the case
15155 10 minutes ago [-]
I love this one because it's so basically obvious: the price for this work will increase or it simply won't happen and wasn't necessary anyway.
astrange 4 minutes ago [-]
You can't get native Americans to do farm work for any amount of money, because they'd have to live in the middle of nowhere near the farm and that's no fun.

(That is, you'd have to pay them so much they could buy the farm and then hire someone else to work it. But you're not going to do that.)

15155 55 seconds ago [-]
The market will take care of this: people will do the work or pay for it or they won't eat.
ChocolateGod 33 minutes ago [-]
> coming decades as the effects of fertility rates really start to bite.

I mean one solution is to promote policies that encourage people to have more children, but we "can't afford it", expecting we'll be able to afford the incoming social care crisis.

15155 27 minutes ago [-]
> We are currently in the process of the creation of a new world order ... with little respect for democracy

Damn, we should have definitely installed an anointed candidate with zero primary votes .. to save democracy.

numbsafari 57 minutes ago [-]
All the libertarian mumbojumbo about the internet and encryption prove to be wrong. The internet becomes a tool of mass surveillance and misinformation affording the oligarchic takeover and dissolution of democracy and broad based freedoms.
sAbakumoff 56 minutes ago [-]
The result is a combination of all these factors and many others, including racism, misogyny, and a desire to return to a time when groceries were cheap. Next summer, the recession will come as a great surprise to those who expected to be better off under Trump
cpursley 1 minutes ago [-]
You sound quite confident. Are you willing to place financial bets?
mvdtnz 54 minutes ago [-]
Yeah keep beating that ludicrous "end of democracy" drum. See how far it gets you next time.
immibis 37 minutes ago [-]
You said the same thing in 1935 in Germany.
jvmboi81 15 minutes ago [-]
nobody here was there in 1935 and I doubt that you have anything more than cursory knowledge of what happened in Nazi Germany at that time.
ssijak 53 minutes ago [-]
Or maybe, just maybe, the Democrats (and other similar parties elsewhere) went too crazy and left and did not focus on real issues ordinary people face?
messe 25 minutes ago [-]
The Overton window has shifted insanely right in the US. The democrats would be considered centrist or even centre right in much of the EU.
jvmboi81 17 minutes ago [-]
you think conservatives in europe want tax hikes, mass immigration and abortion at 9 months?
41 minutes ago [-]
meiraleal 43 minutes ago [-]
Liberal isn't left. Maybe their problem is that they actually didn't go left (workers).
galactus 48 minutes ago [-]
What, in practice, was too crazy and left in the Biden administration? (Honestly asking)
bagels 35 minutes ago [-]
Defending trans people apparently was a bridge too far for many, for one.
15155 29 minutes ago [-]
> It should, but it doesn't.

A flight or bus ticket to California or Colorado for a once-in-a-lifetime service costs multiple orders of magnitude less than the recurring cost of groceries and basic goods.

ryukoposting 25 minutes ago [-]
Your wife dying because your flight got delayed, and you being imprisoned for trying to save her, are also once in a lifetime events.
15155 22 minutes ago [-]
How many people die because they didn't obtain an abortion in the nick of time? Is this normally an urgent service (outside of legally time-limited states?)

How many people struggle to afford buying groceries?

creato 18 minutes ago [-]
There have been several cases that made the news in the last few weeks in the wake of new abortion bans, e.g. https://www.texastribune.org/2024/11/01/nevaeh-crain-death-t...
15155 16 minutes ago [-]
These edge cases are tragic, yes, and shouldn't happen.

Economic hardship results in orders of magnitude more all-cause mortality, making it the more important problem to solve.

adrianN 11 minutes ago [-]
I find it sad that this is framed as an either-or problem.
15155 5 minutes ago [-]
We have a two-party system: this is the natural conclusion of applied game theory and is unfortunate.
amarcheschi 2 minutes ago [-]
How many people struggling to afford buying groceries voted for the guy who promised tax cuts for the rich?
arghwhat 9 minutes ago [-]
Looking purely at the cases where an abortion is required for health reasons:

Emergency abortions required for health reasons are often needed when things go wrong, and when that is the case it might need to be performed either soon or immediately. Being in a state that opposes it might delay the decision in ways that injure or kill the mother.

Non-emergency abortions required for health reasons - that is, when there is significant risk but it is not unfolding yet - also happen but being in a state that opposes abortions at any level in general might make it difficult - doctors not willing to suggest it to avoid risk to their business, those around you refusing the need and convincing you that it would be bad, not to mention having to plan a medical trip to a foreign location to get it done - and in turn put the mother at risk of injury or death through inaction.

15155 4 minutes ago [-]
Ok, how many people die or commit suicide because they cannot afford basic goods and services?
antifa 3 minutes ago [-]
It's a new thing Texas invented.
CalRobert 22 minutes ago [-]
You are absolutely right, but there are still a lot of people who can't pony up the cost of flight, lodging, etc. at short notice in a stressful situation.
15155 19 minutes ago [-]
I think not being able to afford food and basic services may make it more difficult to sock away the $500 required for this edge case.
bigfudge 4 minutes ago [-]
But inflation has been a global/western phenomena post Russian invasion and not unique to the US. Your economy has outperformed the developed averages. Non existent dem messaging on it is inexplicable to me… from a uk or European perspective your economic performance under Biden was enviable.
kragen 25 minutes ago [-]
If you don't get arrested when you get off the return flight.
flakeoil 8 minutes ago [-]
I hope you will enjoy your flight to another state the next time you are sick and need surgery.
15155 3 minutes ago [-]
Fortunately, I'll be able to afford it because I wasn't pumping my entire paycheck into social programs, groceries, and supporting a massive population of unskilled illegal immigrants
FrustratedMonky 13 minutes ago [-]
"bus"???

Isn't one of the proposals from Republicans is to ban inter-state travel for pregnant women?

oefrha 54 minutes ago [-]
> I don't think the policy positions even matter that much.

The tribalism at this point is insane, it’s basically organized religion. You choose your tribe and get assigned a (terrible) religious leader and a list of dogmas you have to subscribe to without getting ostracized. Why should my view on trade be linked to regulations be linked to climate be linked to drugs be linked to criminal justice be linked to refugees be linked to Israel be linked to identity politics be linked to abortion be linked to guns? No idea, but take it or leave it. And the choices of religious leaders? Between someone who lies as readily and confidently as he drinks water and someone who’s a boring ladder climber and <omitted because this is an overwhelmingly one-tribe site>. No thank you.

arghwhat 18 minutes ago [-]
Tribalism is human nature, as social success - a key survival criteria - requires alignment.

The reason it becomes a problem is that there the only options for each "tribe" is one of two extremes, and that these are perceived so fundamentally different it is hard for people to find common grounds. When you have many more parties, you have a wider spectrum where you can have partial agreement and disagreement with much softer borders between political strongholds, and tribes can incrementally move within the spectrum without having to switch all their beliefs and ideologies from one day to the next.

Being more understanding of tribes with other ideas rather than making them villains would also help both sides in communication and political mobility.

nemo44x 4 minutes ago [-]
I don’t think it’s as tribal as you think. At the margins yes, there are wing nuts both ways. But Trump got a lot of votes he didn’t get before and Kamala got fewer than Biden.

Inflation has been a shocker. The border being flooded is terrifying. The economy is and has been struggling in many peoples lives. And the democrats want to still focus on identity politics.

I think they can easily win in 4 years but they need to change their ways. They need to abandon the poisoned ideology that Obama inspired.

rozab 1 hours ago [-]
I assume by 'strong personality' you mean populist. I think it's a big mistake to think populism can only be fought with populism, otherwise all democracies would have fallen to it long ago.

I do think if we're pointing fingers, most of the problems came from before the Harris campaign kicked off.

goethes_kind 1 hours ago [-]
Populism is just democracy taking the reigns back from the entrenched political establishment. There is nothing democratic about a social class of bureaucrats gatekeeping all political offices. If anything, it seems to me that populism is necessary to overcome the local minimum that the political landscape settles in from time to time.
chimprich 52 minutes ago [-]
It's pretty hard to define what populism is; it's kind of a "know it when I see it" kind of definition for most commentators.

My best attempt at a definition would be a platform that denies known truths in favour of superficially popular positions. For example, claiming that tariffs don't increase prices, or that legal convictions are lies, or even that solid, established scientific evidence (like vaccines are safe and hugely effective or climate change is real) are untrue.

aziaziazi 13 minutes ago [-]
Good definition! Here’s the Cambridge one:

“political ideas and activities that are intended to get the support of ordinary people by giving them what they want”.

Giving someone all they want is not seen as a good thing… unless you are the recipient, in that case internal bias comes to play.

gg82 23 minutes ago [-]
Nah, that is not what it means.

Populism is a political approach that seeks to represent the interests and voice of "ordinary people" against what is perceived as an elite or establishment. Populist movements often emphasize a direct connection between the leader and the people, bypassing traditional political institutions or parties, and claim to speak for the "common people" against corrupt or out-of-touch elites. Populism can appear across the political spectrum, taking different forms depending on the issues and ideologies within a given society.

This is likely to cause winners and losers to come out of the situation... and probably after time, the leaders end up becoming elites who become out of touch with the "common people" and the process is likely to repeat.

I think it is closer to Democracy than whatever the democrats seem to say - which they seem to define as: "whatever gives them the power to do what they want"

ks2048 22 minutes ago [-]
It's funny how "populism" has a shifting definition (as I see it). Your comment implies populism is the opposite of democracy. While it's literal meaning seems to be exactly democratic (doing what the populous wants).
zelphirkalt 1 hours ago [-]
From the outside this is what I think too. Biden tried too desperately to be the next candidate again and Harris' campaign could have started 1 or 2 months earlier than it did.

If Trump actually wins, the world might be in for a lot of trouble very soon. Quite worrying. Aside from totalitarian regimes, wherever you look around the world people were hoping the crazy dude would not win, wondering how anyone could be so blind not to see what kind of person he is, how uneducated, silly, and what a loser in the general sense.

kryogen1c 2 hours ago [-]
> Democrats: you won't win by claiming to be 0.1% less bad

It's been confusing since the first trump term how many dems held this position. How can you call trump obviously reprehensible and irredemable... and then lose?

I made the mistake of debating politics with a then-friend who called all 75 million trump voters "drooling fucktards". Word?

We don't talk anymore

JustFinishedBSG 1 hours ago [-]
> It's been confusing since the first trump term how many dems held this position. How can you call trump obviously reprehensible and irredemable... and then lose?

How is that in any way contradictory ?

archon1410 1 hours ago [-]
It implies that either they themselves are even more reprehensible and irredeemable, or the majority of US voters are so morally bankrupt that they prefer reprehensible and irredeemable candidates. The latter is probably true, but why would they say that and then continue to run for elections? Why do they want the approval of morally bankrupt people who prefer reprehensible candidates?

Another option is that voters are just very stupid and fail to see that which is "obvious", repeatedly, despite billions spent on trying to make them "see". Or perhaps their claims are not actually "obvious", and they ought to be... kinder to the other side.

data_maan 49 minutes ago [-]
Voters everywhere are stupid but in the country of exceptionalism, they lately seem to have become exceptionally stu... tolerant!
bjourne 1 hours ago [-]
You are asking why they would say true things.
archon1410 1 hours ago [-]
No, I am asking why they would knowingly desire the approval of those who prefer "irredeemable" candidates. They would either have to lie a lot to get it, or pull themselves down to be more reprehensible. So, what's their strategy? Lieing a lot after telling the "one truth", or becoming more reprehensible themselves? Probably both.
Zak 36 minutes ago [-]
Seeking votes is not like seeking approval in a social context. Someone trying to win a contested election desires votes for the purpose of winning.
bjourne 54 minutes ago [-]
You did: "The latter is probably true, but why would they say that" The implication of your comment is that politicians shouldn't tell the truth because that offends voters.
hhjinks 15 minutes ago [-]
So your opinion is that elections are a referendum on the moral virtue of the candidate, or that you shouldn't run for office if you think the electorate is morally bankrupt?

I'm sorry, but I have to be blunt. That is an extremely narrow view, and a single second of critical thinking should present a million other possibilities. The former is obviously untrue, considering Trump's long list of vices. The latter is a complete non sequitur. Power is power; the electorate's morals only matter insofar as they're willing to check the box next to my name.

Trump can be reprehensible and irredemable, and still win if he's more believable on the issues Americans care the most about. He could be a fraud, a cheat, even a traitor, so long as he's persuasive. That's how democracy works, how it should work.

throw0101d 20 minutes ago [-]
> Another option is that voters are just very stupid and fail to see that which is "obvious", repeatedly, despite billions spent on trying to make them "see".

I think this is the correct options.

I mean, look at the people who worked for him in the last administration:

> So how do we explain this near-universal rejection of Trump by the people who worked with him most closely? I guess one explanation is that they’ve all been infected with the dreaded Woke Mind Virus. But it’s unclear why working for Donald Trump would cause almost everyone to be exposed to the Woke Mind Virus, when working for, say, JD Vance, or Ron DeSantis, or any other prominent right-wing figure does not seem to produce such an infection.

> Of course, not everyone who worked for Trump has abandoned and denounced him. Rudy Giuliani, who is now under indictment in several different states, is still among the faithful. Michael Flynn, who was fired by Obama for insubordination and then removed by Trump for improper personal dealings with the Russian government, is still on board, and is now threatening to unleash the “gates of Hell” on Trump’s political enemies. Peter Navarro, the economist1 who served four months in prison for defying a Congressional subpoena, is still a Trump fan. And so on.

> You may perhaps notice a pattern among the relatively few people who are still on board the Trump Train from his first term. They are all very shady people. I don’t think this is a coincidence; I think it’s something systematic about Donald Trump’s personality and his method of rule.

* https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/trumpism-is-kakistocracy

The GOP party has changed:

> As many people have noted, Trump’s movement is a cult of personality. Since Trump took over the Republican party in 2016, essentially every tenet of modern conservatism has been replaced with belief in a single leader. Trump appointed the judges that killed Roe v. Wade, but he constantly goes back and forth on the topic of abortion rights. Trump didn’t cut entitlement spending, but whether he wants to do that in his second term or not depends on which day you ask him. Trump has flip-flopped on the TikTok bill, on marijuana legalization, on the filibuster, on SALT caps, and so on.

> But these flip-flops do not matter to his support at all. His supporters are sure that whichever decision Trump makes, it will be the right one, and if he changes it the following week, that will be the right decision as well. If tomorrow Trump declared that tariffs are terrible and illegal immigration is great, this would immediately become the essence of Trumpism. Trump’s followers put their trust not in principled ideas, but in a man — or, to be more accurate, in the idea of a man. That is what Trumpism requires of its adherents.

* Idid.

siffin 1 hours ago [-]
It's like being a pastry chef and mocking someone's cake as if it's the worst cake ever, but you can't even make a better one even though it's your profession.
Fricken 33 seconds ago [-]
It's more like trying to convince someone to eat their vegetables when the other side is promising pastries.
zimpenfish 1 hours ago [-]
It's more like making an edible cake but the customers preferring the one containing rat entrails because they'd rather eat rat entrails than let anyone else eat an edible cake.
mvdtnz 53 minutes ago [-]
No, it isn't. And the fact that you think it is, is the problem.
gregoryl 35 minutes ago [-]
This kinda of argument is the crux of your issue. "no it isn't" vs "this is why I disagree:"
diffeomorphism 1 hours ago [-]
Or you do make a better one but still lose because people did not actually care about the cake but about the messaging.

Or in meme form:

https://i.redd.it/g0r0x1ldi0e71.jpg

prepend 54 minutes ago [-]
I think it’s more about taste being subjective. So if my “better” cake is actually less preferred, then it’s not actually better.

Making an objective statement about subjectivity is kind of silly in the first place. Then losing shows it to be stupid.

indy 1 hours ago [-]
It's always amazing what a biased media/social network can do to the perception of otherwise rational and intelligent people.
lobsterthief 1 hours ago [-]
Just remember how rational and intelligent the average person is. Then realize that half the US population is less rational and less intelligent than that.
smnrg 59 minutes ago [-]
Original quote by George Carlin, not US-centric: “Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”
codethief 22 minutes ago [-]
I take it confusing the arithmetic average for the median is part of the joke?
badmintonbaseba 15 minutes ago [-]
Intelligence is not inherently quantifiable. IQ is an arbitrary way to quantify it, but there average and median is pretty much equal by definition.
Jensson 16 minutes ago [-]
"The average person" typically means the median person.
aziaziazi 28 minutes ago [-]
> just remember

I don’t and you shouldn’t. Mocking others intelligence only shows that you lack enough to understand them. As I understand it, this is precisely the point of GP

smackeyacky 1 hours ago [-]
He wasn’t wrong
frereubu 1 hours ago [-]
How is this different from what Trump supporters were saying about Democratic voters? Genuine question - I'm not in the US and from my perspective the vitriol was pretty universal.
Jensson 1 hours ago [-]
If both sides spouts vitriol then you pick the side that doesn't pour it on you, that is the problem described by "one side is 1% less bad than the other". If you want voters then try to welcome them instead of blame them for all the problems, goes for both sides.
frereubu 1 hours ago [-]
Sure, but then shouldn't the universal vitriol cancel itself out somehow? Democracts have been on the receiving end of a lot of name-calling too. This doesn't feel like a good enough explanation. It feels much more like the Democrats ignored (or were perceived to have ignored) a lot of substantive issues for a large section of the population.
Jensson 54 minutes ago [-]
> Sure, but then shouldn't the universal vitriol cancel itself out somehow?

It does, both sides got about the same amount of votes as you can see.

> It feels much more like the Democrats ignored (or were perceived to have ignored) a lot of substantive issues for a large section of the population.

I don't think so, it doesn't matter how much you try to do for people if you also namecall them at the same time, they will assume you aren't on their side even if your policies are better for them. Vitriol ensures the vote becomes tribal instead of rationally inspecting both sides and picking the better option.

Dalewyn 38 minutes ago [-]
I think Trump and the Republicans did actually succeed in welcoming in a truly diverse base of new and former voters: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/06/us/politics/p...

This is the Red Wave that was promised in 2020 and 2022 but failed to materialize.

Why didn't Harris and the Democrats pull it off? Well, they could start by not playing identity politics or calling Americans deplorables, Nazis, and garbage. Godwin's Law was in full swing for them.

I'm Japanese-American, demographically I should be a bleeding heart Democrat, but truthfully I can't stand their constant victimizing and divisive rhetoric and is why I voted for Trump and the Republicans in 2016, 2020, and 2024.

Daishiman 25 minutes ago [-]
You literally voted for a guy who said things 1000x worse and this is your take?
foldr 5 minutes ago [-]
I recall a vox pop in the Washington Post that included a woman who was voting for Trump because she thought he'd be better than Harris at standing up to Putin. Trump seems to attract a combination of low information voters and voters who are reluctant to give their real reasons for voting for him.
cglace 27 minutes ago [-]
As someone who pays attention to politics exceptionally closely, I wonder what you would call Trump's rhetoric if not divisive.
Dalewyn 3 minutes ago [-]
I call it practical, on point, gruff, and charismatic.

Practical and on point because Trump talks about things that the common American actually gives a shit about in a way that the common American can understand and relate to. This also has a side effect of uniting people under a common cause despite outward appearances.

Gruff because that style of speech appeals to most Americans who don't like being sophisticated, or worse: Being politically correct. Remember that being politically incorrect was one of the reasons Trump won in 2016, and it's still one of the reasons he won again today.

Charismatic because, well, I think everyone has to at least admit that the man draws people in despite any and all odds.

noobermin 37 minutes ago [-]
The right gets to hate, the liberals don't. Basically the media let Rs play on handicap and the electorate basically buys it.

You're right it's unfair but if you're not American and thus stuck in the political media stew then you can see it clearly.

mondrian 16 minutes ago [-]
This is a deep insight. It's a reactionary vs. establishment dynamic where the reactionaries get a free boost because they're fundamentally more provocative from a content perspective. I think it's more like "the reactionaries get to hate, the establishment doesn't" and R and D may swap those positions.
_heimdall 26 minutes ago [-]
I'm not so sure about that, I've seen plenty of hate from both sides.

Covid was a great example, anyone who disagreed with the main narrative or even just wanted bodily choice was blasted by many liberals, including the president, with all kinds of hateful speech.

Since 2016 many liberals also have used hateful speech to describe anyone willing to vote for Trump. I personally didn't like either candidate the political machine offered us, but in many of my discussions with anyone liberal Trump voters were often held as something like a second class citizen, that's pretty damn hateful in my book to consider anyone "lesser than."

leptons 1 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
lelanthran 1 hours ago [-]
> fascists have come to power in the past, or they are just into fascism and prefer that kind of thing.

This, right here, has been the focal point of Dem supporters everywhere - doubling down on the name-calling.

I seriously doubt that more than half the voters are homophobic, misogynistic fascists, but calling them that only stops them from engaging, it doesn't magically cause them to rethink their position and switch their vote.

trymas 49 minutes ago [-]
I guess there is no group of people that trump hasn’t name called (dems, gays, hispanics, blacks, you name it, etc.).

It should’ve been disqualifying when president publicly mocks and physically parodies disabled journalist instead of answering god damn questions.

Taking high road didn’t help in 2016, wouldn’t have helped now.

But this trend is obviously not only in USA. Some political groups and their voters don’t care what is said, and other political group must upstand the highest moral standards.

Jensson 22 minutes ago [-]
> I guess there is no group of people that trump hasn’t name called (dems, gays, hispanics, blacks, you name it, etc.).

There are a few groups not there, and those won Trump the election, and Democrats has name called those groups. If Democrats didn't demonize those people then maybe Trump would have lost.

foldr 53 seconds ago [-]
Trump got a larger share of the hispanic vote than in 2020. I'm not convinced that voters really care that much about being insulted on the whole. If you go through the archives, which parts of Trump's voter base haven't been insulted by him at one time or another?
siffin 1 hours ago [-]
You're right, but boy does it suck when antifa has to not only fight to win, but take the moral high ground and baby the potential fascists so they don't become actual fascists.
UniverseHacker 16 minutes ago [-]
I don’t see it as name calling, the word Fascist plainly and accurately describes their positions and strategies. If they sincerely believe this is what is best, why would they see it as an insult rather than a compliment?

It is true that Americans are pretty proud of winning WWII, and label that as defeating fascism… but it is plainly obvious that this current political movement aims to implement exactly what we were fighting to prevent back then. I think this is why it is an insult- people that language implies betrayal of what a lot of Americans died fighting for.

master-lincoln 1 hours ago [-]
So these people care more about what other people call them than how their nation is governed?
lelanthran 1 hours ago [-]
> So these people care more about what other people call them than how their nation is governed?

When it is the people governing them, that's a perfectly rational decision - why would someone who views me with contempt govern me fairly?

1 hours ago [-]
lobsterthief 1 hours ago [-]
It goes both ways though. Taking the high road doesn’t seem to work either.
frereubu 1 hours ago [-]
@whoitwas The point of this comment was that not all Republican voters are MAGA.
cglace 31 minutes ago [-]
If you support and vote for a fascist you are a fascist.
immibis 35 minutes ago [-]
It's not name calling, it's descriptive and neutral.
whoitwas 1 hours ago [-]
Dude. Read history. Read words. MAGA is literally fascist.
pineaux 44 minutes ago [-]
Maybe, but does it matter? How do you beat fascists? Look at Deutschland before the NSDAP took power. Many people tried to fight the NSDAP, with violence, with writings, with rallies, demonstrations... But all of it didnt work. It only made them more resolute. There must be a better way.
whoitwas 32 minutes ago [-]
With public education which they fight against or a world war.
pineaux 1 hours ago [-]
This. Its the arrogance of the Dems that is making people turn to Trump. It's getting on the high horse and calling all Trump supporters trash and drooling fucktards and stuff like that. You are making yourself look bad. Imagine someone isnt so politically active, but hears an elitist dem calling people they dont know a drooling fucktard, what do you think they will think?
data_maan 41 minutes ago [-]
Except Trump calls people all kinds of bad things and it doesn't seem to hurt him.

Conclusion: You cannot arrogantly call someone a drooling fucktard. But you can call someone garbage non-arrogantly while also being a convicted felon.

The MAGA snowflakes prefer the felon, their soft skin can't seem to withstand arrogance.

oersted 24 minutes ago [-]
I don’t understand, Trump has been explicitly, frequently and consistently insulting to almost every group. That’s how it all started, that is also to a large degree his “saying how it is” appeal. If name calling and arrogance are the root of the issue, how come it has worked so well for Trump? This is a bizarre inversion, I would understand if you insisted on other qualities like wokeness or economic policy, but how are you managing to attribute the exact worst qualities of MAGA to the Dems?
zimpenfish 1 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
ekianjo 39 minutes ago [-]
Who is homophobic?
486sx33 54 minutes ago [-]
Wow, I knew the comments would be bad. But this is the point where I literally said wow aloud.
immibis 35 minutes ago [-]
Did he say something incorrect?
prepend 48 minutes ago [-]
> literally

I do not think you know what this word means.

frereubu 1 hours ago [-]
This is a confusing comment that I don't think answers my question.
monstertank 45 minutes ago [-]
I like how you seem to think no atheists voted for Trump
arp242 9 minutes ago [-]
Half the stuff Trump says is some insult to someone. "Owning the libs" and "libtards" has been a thing for a long time. Remember when the tea party said Obama was literally Hitler for trying to come up with a better health care system? etc. etc. etc.

But somehow everyone else needs to be on their best behaviour and as soon as they say "fuck you back" in response to a torrent of "fuck you"s it 's a big deal.

If you want to talk tone and insults then you're definitely starting at the wrong end.

matwood 1 hours ago [-]
To your point, the Democrats should win every election, especially against Trump. But, they can't get out of their own way. Go all the way back to when the party hosed Bernie, and now this time when they were Hiden Biden.

While the economic numbers are good, they are mainly good for people with already high economic status like existing home owners and professionals. For example, student loan forgiveness sounds great but then leaves every blue collar worker who didn't go to college wondering WTF are they doing for me? They are giving more money to people who are already ahead. When Musk says pain is coming, many of Trumps supporters are happy because they are already in pain and want to see those benefitting feel some of that pain.

Then they go and overplay their hands with social issues. I didn't see it at the time, but all of the DEI rollbacks we've been seeing over the past year or so should have been a signal. One of the middle of the road people on TV last night mentioned he had friends who tried to avoid interacting with people at work because they were afraid of saying something offensive. And these were likely center left people. I have had similar discussions with even my most progressive friends. The almost refusal to message young men is also a problem.

Most Americans want legal immigration, but the Democrats took too long to do something and then Trump was able to kill the bill last minute. It looked like the Democrats wanted to simply ignore it until they no longer could.

There are more, but I think these are some of the big Democrat self owns.

noobermin 34 minutes ago [-]
There was no student loan forgiveness.
_heimdall 23 minutes ago [-]
They tried extremely hard to do it though, and wasted a lot of political capital on the issue. The fact that they tried so hard and couldn't get it done is a good example of what the GP was talking about.
creato 1 hours ago [-]
> Most Americans want legal immigration, but the Democrats took too long to do something and then Trump was able to kill the bill last minute. It looked like the Democrats wanted to simply ignore it until they no longer could.

You forgot the part where they claimed their hands were tied, then finally did something about it 8 months before the election.

matwood 1 hours ago [-]
Yes, completely dropped the ball on an issue they could have addressed head on.
llamaimperative 28 minutes ago [-]
Biden introduced a bill for border security on the first day of his administration, GOP nuked it. Wasn’t ignored.
apinstein 51 minutes ago [-]
It’s fascinating how no one mentions that Trump didn’t pass comprehensive immigration legislation during his first term despite it being core to his platform.

This issue is a mess and has been kicked down the road for literal decades at this point. Maybe finally it will get passed…

llamaimperative 25 minutes ago [-]
He seems quite literally incapable of a “comprehensive” solution to anything. Every solution was the simple one that had the predictable unintended consequences.

E.g. on immigration he prevented courts from deferring certain deportation cases, which meant high-risk immigrants stayed in the country for longer.

mschuster91 17 minutes ago [-]
> He seems quite literally incapable of a “comprehensive” solution to anything. Every solution was the simple one that had the predictable unintended consequences.

That is because the result doesn't matter, not in "starve the beast" [1] cycle politics - it used to be mostly about money but the model can be used also for general politics. The playbook is:

1. side A rise to power claiming "issue X must be solved by doing Y" (all while knowing that doing Y is useless or counterproductive, but the voter base doesn't care - be it immigration or the defunding of healthcare or whatever)

2. The consequences hit delayed, when the term is at its end and the competitor B takes over (usually in US political cycles every 8 years, but these days it seems like the ping-pong is accelerating)

3. That leaves an opportunity for side A to constantly barge in from the side "look at issue X, vote for us next time and we'll fix it (for realsies this time!)"

4. Side A wins the next election.

When it comes to anything budget related, replace the campaigning slogan with "look at issue X, it is clear that the government is incapable of doing anything about that issue, let us privatise it".

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starve_the_beast

llamaimperative 9 minutes ago [-]
This is all true but I actually don’t think Trump knows his solutions won’t solve these problems. I think he’s actually a simple-minded man who’s saying the simple solutions he thinks will work because he hasn’t ever thought about the problem.

I mean he came into power and proudly declared he had never heard of NATO before running (!!) but was brought up to speed in ~2min (!!). That’s who he is.

mschuster91 23 minutes ago [-]
> Then they go and overplay their hands with social issues. I didn't see it at the time, but all of the DEI rollbacks we've been seeing over the past year or so should have been a signal.

Yeah, a signal of large players in economy preparing themselves for a Trump victory - the begin of which was Meta unbanning Trump and the culmination of which was Bezos banning the WaPo endorsement. Big Business doesn't care about any values, all it cares about is money, and so it prepared for Trump possibly taking over again in time and getting into good terms with him.

nervousvarun 2 hours ago [-]
That's basically it in a nutshell for my experience as well. Elections are won by swaying Independents...the Dem strategy for Independents appeared to be "Trump is a fascist" "Trump supporters are garbage".

Ok well..that's not really an argument?

And yes we can bring up all the terrible Trump examples but if the point is separating yourself from that, how is what they've done any different?

It just feels each side just despises the other and it all ends up like children arguing on the playground.

Where are the adults?

There's going to be all kinds of hyperbole thrown around today on both sides but personally see this as a failure by the Democrats to sway Independents.

kragen 49 minutes ago [-]
One of the hardest lessons to learn growing up is that there aren't really any adults, not in the sense I believed when I was a kid. "Adult" is a role people play when they're interacting with kids. Some do it better than others. But inside every adult is a terrified child† desperately struggling to make sense of an uncertain, incomprehensible world. Unfortunately for that child, life always ends in death; it won't be long until you are dead and everyone who remembers you is dead. And our reasoning abilities are not capable of understanding very much of the world, so often nothing we do matters, not even for the purposes it was intended for. Mostly our understanding of the world consists of stories we tell ourselves with relatively little connection to reality.

Our understanding of the world is profoundly mediated by fiction, which is to say, lies.

That's why it all ends up like children arguing on the playground. The kind of playground‡ where my 14-year-old classmate Evangalyn Martinez got stabbed to death for, I think it was, stealing Joella Mares's boyfriend, and nobody leaves the playground alive.

Under those circumstances, what does it mean to live a good life rather than a bad one?

______

† This is a metaphor. I don't mean that each adult has literally swallowed a child and is digesting them like a python.

‡ Technically that was actually the parking lot. Also, I was already no longer her classmate at the time.

vundercind 1 hours ago [-]
One major difficulty with addressing republicans and “low-information” independents (there aren’t a ton of true-swing voters anyway, most are partisans who prefer not to label themselves that but vote as if they were) is that you can’t discuss issues with them. If you try, you immediately get sidelined into dealing not with disagreements on issues, but with having to try to convince them that basically their entire list of concerns is fictional.

We had an R state rep candidate come by our house. Highlighted two issues in her message to us. Both were simply not actual things. The existence of the problems were lies. WTF do you do with voters who consume media that’s made them believe those? It’s like a huge moat around even being able to talk to them about anything real, even if only to disagree about some real thing.

autoexec 25 minutes ago [-]
> If you try, you immediately get sidelined into dealing not with disagreements on issues, but with having to try to convince them that basically their entire list of concerns is fictional.

I wish that democrats had spent less time telling republicans that the boogeyman doesn't exist and more time showing them how we're going to keep them safe from the boogeyman. In WI, there was a referendum question that asked if people wanted to add language to the state constitution which would explicitly specify that only US citizens could vote. The democrats fought against that saying that election fraud was basically non-existent and that it would be a waste of time to change anything since it's already illegal for non-citizens to vote.

They fucked up though, because no matter how right the democrats were about the safety of elections the fear republican voters have is real and it's never a waste of time to ease those fears.

As it turns out, if the referendum passes (and I'm guessing that it will) the result will be replacing language which says that every US citizen gets to vote with language that says only US citizens get to vote. It never said that in the referendum question though. The fear of illegal immigrants voting has likely been used to remove language protecting the right of US citizens to vote in WI and could open the door for laws that prevent certain US citizens from voting.

Since Democrats and Republicans are in full agreement that only US citizens should be able to vote the smart thing democrats should have done was push to add language explicitly stating that only citizens can vote but without replacing anything else. That would have satisfied the fearful republicans and protected the voting rights of all citizens. Instead they wanted to lecture republicans about voter fraud statistics.

When you have people acting like frightened children about something that isn't real, sometimes you just have to comfort them.

This is the same problem democrats have when republicans say they are afraid of small children getting sex change operations. Democrats want to tell them that they are misinformed and that little kids aren't getting surgery, but they'd be smarter to say "You're right, little children getting sex changes at school is a horrible thing and we are putting forward a law that would ban that practice so that no child gets sex change surgery!". Why keep letting these issues both sides agree on become arguments that divide us?

vundercind 19 minutes ago [-]
Heh, I have similar feelings about gun issues. Democrats are dead right but I wish they’d just drop the entire issue completely. I mean they already barely talk about it, though, so who knows if talking about it even less would be enough to convince e.g. my dad that his homemade “Biden and Harris will take your guns” sign is definitely wrong and makes him look ridiculous (somehow, this never happening no matter how many times he thinks it will hasn’t convinced him)
autoexec 12 minutes ago [-]
The trick isn't to stop talking about gun control. Democrats should be proactive about addressing the fear. They should campaign on a promise to never go door to door and take everyone's guns away and push for legislation that specifically states that the mass-unarming of the public is explicitly illegal while giving them an opportunity to carve out the exceptions that the majority of people, including republicans, agree on like keeping guns from crazy people and violent felons.

The point is that the irrational fear has to be addressed. Making fun of it, ignoring it, or lecturing on why the threat is imaginary won't help.

pessimizer 46 minutes ago [-]
> We had an R state rep candidate come by our house. Highlighted two issues in her message to us. Both were simply not actual things. The existence of the problems were lies.

This has been a constant refrain from Democrats: "The thing that you are upset about is not happening. Well, it is happening, but it is the exception. Ok, it's happening everywhere, but it's a good thing." No, of course Harris isn't for government sex changes for imprisoned illegal immigrants, except for the fact that she said she was. The truth is that we all know that she would say anything to win, and holding her to any position she ever publicly held feels unfair.

The people who have been kept low-information are the Democrats, because they have been surrounded by media largely controlled by their political party. Republicans often have bad information, but they're constantly out there consuming information and hate-reading what Democrats are saying. Independents, in my experience, are the highest-information of all, because they don't think of political parties as something they can offload their morality to. Independents only see politics in terms of actual issues, and track those issues rather than having parasocial relationships with political celebrities.

In that vein, I'm pretty sure that if I had an experience where a political candidate came to my house and talked about issues that weren't real, I'd talk about those issues specifically, and speculate about their origin. I think you don't mention them because they were real, but a lot of liberals have taken this position of officially denying reality if reality could help Trump. Is widespread voter fraud real? No. Should people be unconcerned about making it easier? Also, no.

If upper-middle class liberals could have won the "stop sounding like Scientologists" challenge, they could have won. If The Democratic party could have wanted to win more than they wanted to avoid alienating any donors, they could have won by taking any popular position on anything. Trump spent most of his campaign actively campaigning for Harris by calling her a radical-left socialist; if she were actually a radical-left socialist instead of an empty vessel to be filled with cash, she would have won. If the Democratic party hadn't chosen again not to run a fair, open, lively primary, they would have won.

With Trump campaigning against radical-left socialist Harris, and Harris campaigning against rapist Hitler, homophobic Stalin, and racist Mussolini, the majority of people looked at which candidate was lying the most, and voted for the other one. Everybody knows who Trump is, and he's already been president, and nobody went to camps. It was a rather sleepy standard Republican presidency, whose few deviations from the norm pleased people. The only reason we heard about Harris is because she (and Buttigieg) pretended to be for single-payer healthcare in order to destroy a popular candidate who was running on an honest program.

data_maan 21 minutes ago [-]
> The truth is that we all know that she would say anything to win

While Trump wouldn't do any of that, right? He would say things because they're true :D

> It was a rather sleepy standard Republican presidency, whose few deviations from the norm pleased people

Just a small insurrection at the end, no biggie. Oh, and some international agreements were shattered, but who cares about those anyway. I mean, there was also Corona which jolted some people from sleep, but thanks to Trump's recommendation to get some chlorine you could get right back to sleeping :)

vundercind 16 minutes ago [-]
Ensured an R-partisan Supreme Court for the rest of my life, odds are. And I’m only middle aged.
vundercind 36 minutes ago [-]
1) “Local crime in your specific hilariously safe rich town is out of control and rapidly rising, which is why the cops are asking for more money and I’m going to give it to them!” I double checked to be sure, and no, of course this was fiction. So you encounter a supporter of hers and want to talk about actual issues, you get stuck pulling up the cops’ own crime stats on your phone I guess. Good luck with that conversation, we’ve tried it with relatives who are convinced it’s true about their own different rich low-crime towns. Now you’re stuck fighting phantoms.

2) “boys in girls sports”. So incredibly niche that who gives a fuck, and does not appear to be an actual problem that sports conferences and associations aren’t handling just fine on their own. Why does anybody care about this? Right wing news, entire reason. Not an actual issue.

pessimizer 30 minutes ago [-]
1) I don't know where you live, you may be right about crime where you are. It is not specifically Republican or uncommon to run on law & order while exaggerating disorder.

2) Boys are in girls sports, and Biden destroyed Title IX with an executive order. And you've gone from "fictional" to "Why does anybody care about this?" You don't see this as a dishonest progression?

edit: and now edited to "who gives a fuck." Women who dedicate their lives to sports. Men who think that half the population deserves half the medals and half the opportunity. Me.

vundercind 25 minutes ago [-]
> Biden destroyed Title IX with an executive order

Oh she mentioned defending title IX and I had zero clue wtf she meant (I mean, I know what title IX is, but figured it was some kind of allusion to something I’d only know if I listened to Mark Levin even more than I already do). A glance at The Googles and this appears to be exactly the kind of thing I mean.

Xeamek 1 hours ago [-]
Ok, well... that's not really an argument, is it?

It actually is, though.

Sure, it didn’t work—probably because enough people weren’t convinced that it was true enough (and also because they didn’t care)—but it's not unreasonable to think that such an argument should have been enough.

krona 43 minutes ago [-]
Appealing to insult is not, in fact, an argument. It's a form of rhetoric which doesn't change peoples minds, it reinforces them.
Xeamek 35 minutes ago [-]
"X is a fascist" is not just a simple insult. Pretending that's all it is is ignorance at best
llamaimperative 23 minutes ago [-]
“You are fascist” actually isn’t just an insult. If you display fascist tendencies then you’re a fascist, and he displays many of those typical tendencies.
throw0101d 12 minutes ago [-]
> the Dem strategy for Independents appeared to be "Trump is a fascist" "Trump supporters are garbage".

> Ok well..that's not really an argument?

Choosing to not put a fascist(-leaning) individual into power is "not really an argument"? So it's okay to re-elect individuals who have tried at least once to stop the peaceful transfer of power?

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup

contracertainty 1 hours ago [-]
As a European I have to ask - do you really need another argument? If I stand on a platform for government in Europe with an arguably fascist agenda I will get called out as a fascist and will lose. Never mind if I am a convicted felon, rapist, and probable russian intelligence asset. Seriously, what are you guys thinking here? Americans would actually vote for an extreme right wing candiate just to prove a point to the dems? Just to get one over on the libs? Please explain.
sien 57 minutes ago [-]
Giorgia Meloni - President of Italy.

Victor Orban - President of Hungary.

The AfD in Germany got a higher percentage of the vote in Thuringen in Germany than any other party. Currently polling higher than any member of the governing coalition nationally.

Geert Wilders - successful in the Netherlands.

Marine Le Pen - possible next president of France.

The Freedom Party of Austria - has been in government.

These parties all sometimes win in Europe.

amarcheschi 47 minutes ago [-]
In italy happened the same "nooo you can't call them fascist"

Freedom of protest was, in fact, restricted in italy in a way that it affects climate manifestations more than lobbies manifestation - we have taxis striking and blocking cities if someone wants to touch their ungodly privileges -

Journalist striked on the public news because news has become unreliable, propaganda spewing news at a level before unheard of

It didn't happen, but Giorgia meloni wanted to abolish the crime of torture to better allow police to do its work (lmao even)

At the season opening of the teather la scala di Milano, one man shouted "viva l'Italia antifascista" (long live antifacist italy). Police was sent to check his documents and similar intimidatory shit

2muchcoffeeman 1 hours ago [-]
I think there are also a lot of single issue voters who don’t think about the ethics of the candidate or their world view.

How many evangelical Christians just voted for an adulterer and convicted criminal because he’s not pro choice?

_heimdall 14 minutes ago [-]
I live in a very Republican area and know quite a few people who do vote only on the one issue of pro-life. I don't think many of them would actually agree that Trump is an adulterer or a criminal though. They would chalk it up to Democratic lies or political attacks using the legal system as a weapon.

Heck, I know quite a few people who are very strongly religious and somehow view Trump as a good Christian candidate. That one really blows my mind, unless they've changed the ten commandments entirely since I was growing up.

indy 1 hours ago [-]
Fascist has become an overused word by the left. Everyone else (the majority of the american voting population it would seem) are tired of the label and tune out anyone who accuses someone of being a fascist. The response from the left has been to double down and accuse more people of fascism.
jonathanstrange 46 minutes ago [-]
It doesn't matter whether they're tired of it or not, and you're probably feigning ignorance anyway. Of course, Fascists sometimes deny they are Fascists if that helps their strategies. There are objective characteristics for Fascism, for example Umberto Ecco's 14 points, and there is no doubt that Trump/MAGA is a Fascist movement. It ticks the boxes according to any characterization of Fascism. You can test that for yourself, look up characterizations and definitions from the seminal literature and check MAGA for them. There is just no doubt about it.

I'm personally also worried about the rise of left-wing authoritarianism in the US but that's another matter and far less of a general danger to the world at this time. But it's worth noting that authoritarian positions are popular on either side of the political fence in the US right now, and classical enlightened liberalism seems to be completely dead. (To be fair, it was never strong in the US to begin with.)

krona 14 minutes ago [-]
The distinctive fascist doctrine of perpetual war doesn't seem to be a MAGA calling cry. In fact isn't the opposite more true?

And then the cult of traditionalism while strong in the NRx movement, is arguably stronger in the Republican side than in MAGA itself.

Ultimately Fascism is deeply spiritual but all I get from Trump is brash 80's boomerism. He's not ideological enough.

kristiandupont 49 minutes ago [-]
Trump has called his opponents fascists a million times.
amarcheschi 1 hours ago [-]
I wouldn't be so sure about the fascist agenda in eu given some recent results of some parties throughout the union
card_zero 1 hours ago [-]
(Except in Austria, which now has Volkskanzler Herbert Kickl.)

Edit: maybe not, I think they're still in procedural limbo because no other party wants to be in the coalition.

nervousvarun 1 hours ago [-]
I can't begin to speak for America, my point was about the importance of Independent voters: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/first-us-independent-turnou...
fch42 22 minutes ago [-]
only European but if your choice is binary, you can only make it that way.

Some Americans may well vote for the rightwing candidate because they want to stick it to the left (or whoever the "anti" would be).

Personally, I don't think that alone makes a majority in that binary choice; in Europe, it would mostly end up in the vote for a minor "ultra" party. And less-"anti" conservative voters have other options.

In the US though, as someone with conservative values and views, one always has to choose ... do I want to vote with everyone else who votes for "my" camp including the stick-it-tos (because there's only one option "on my side"), do I not vote, or do I even vote against what feels closer to me because the stick-it-tos vote for them as well, and/or their head on the ticket is clearly one of the stick-it-tos ?

Am I glad I needn't make that choice. And am I sad what kind of asocial extremes are encouraged by the binary, winner-takes-all US political system.

xdennis 1 hours ago [-]
The problem is that it doesn't stick and people see it as desperate.

Trump was very favorable to Israel and has a Jewish daughter. Not typical fascist behavior.

Debbie Dingell said Trump will build internment camps and put her in one. Were were the internment camps in Trump's first term?

nerdix 40 minutes ago [-]
Anti-Semitism isn't an inherit trait of fascism. It's an inherit trait of Nazism.

Mussolini was in power in Italy 10 years before Hitler was in Germany and he wasn't very anti-Semitic at all. He was influenced by Hitler towards the end of his reign but even then his anti-Semitic policies were mild when compared to Germany.

Part of the problem with calling someone a fascist is that people associate the word with Hitler. But Hitler wasn't the only fascist or even the first fascist.

Rinzler89 45 minutes ago [-]
>Trump was very favorable to Israel and has a Jewish daughter. Not typical fascist behavior

So because Israel is involved in something means that something can't be fascist? What about the fascist things Netanyahu is doing with Israel?

card_zero 59 minutes ago [-]
He'll definitely go away without a fuss after his second term, right? He isn't considering what could be done about the 22nd amendment. Putin extended his terms in office in creative ways, but Trump isn't Putin and has a high regard for established political mechanisms, even if they mean there will be less importance for Trump at some point in the future.
gg82 41 minutes ago [-]
I'm sure Trump will be happy to go into being former president Trump at the end of his term.... if the left let him.
card_zero 34 minutes ago [-]
Is there any source of reassurance about this I can look to, or only your gut feeling?
graycat 9 minutes ago [-]
> Seriously, what are you guys thinking here?

Okay, I'm in the US and will try to explain.

> As a European

Yup, the US is at least different!

> an arguably fascist agenda

> extreme right wing candiate

US politics can be tough fighting, lots of lying, deception, anxiety creation, violent demonstrations, assassinations, emotional appeals, media definitely biased and pumping out paid for propaganda, big influence from special interests (e.g., want money from the central government), lots of money buying and selling, e.g., as I recall, the Democrat Party spent ballpark $1.6 billion on ads -- the rich people giving that money want a return on their investment.

In the US, Trump is a moderate, i.e., "all the traffic is in the middle of the road".

The US middle of the road: Free enterprise, entrepreneurs should be free to be successful in business, often based on a lot of private investment capital (money) but sometimes based on just two guys in a rented garage or one guy in college with a Web site or some guy with a simple Web site selling books and records. Curiously, it was the US that did that, for the US and now the whole world. People should make their own way financially, etc. If people genuinely need help, then there, in various forms, is a social safety net with some help but not enough for a good life or everything. Real socialism where the government is Big Daddy that everyone can count on is left and not widely accepted. A guaranteed minimum income is not quite here yet. There is still some question how much the government will supply in free health care and education. Can spend $100,000+ a year on college, the main point is who you meet, not what you learn. For learning there are plenty of cheap colleges and universities where can learn as much as want as there is known now.

US politics and media throw around "fascism" essentially only as an insult for people who don't understand Germany in the 1930s or what real fascism was. The fascism insult is to lead to a Hitler insult, wildly far from the truth.

In simple terms, fascism has the government have much more power, especially over the economy including industry and business, than Trump wants or used in his first term as POTUS.

Uh, fascism needs a LOT of power in the government; in the US mostly people don't trust government and don't want government to have that much power. So, a charge of fascism is a lie to get votes from people afraid of power. Yes, in his first term, Trump had a lot of power, and now has it again. But, really, the US left wants more power, in total, than Trump or the US center or right. In particular, if listen to what Kamala really said, she wants nearly all revenue to flow to DC (District of Columbia, seat of the central government) and then returned as government programs to people and selected businesses; Kamala wanted such in principle (like some sophomore college women with an all-night bull session with plenty of beer and about politics and society) but had no meaningful details for implementation.

> a convicted felon, rapist, and probable russian intelligence asset.

All 100% junk information generated and spread as political mud wrestling:

In no meaningful sense is Trump a "convicted felon". Parts of the US judicial system went after Trump to have some people BELIEVE he was a felon. It was political propaganda, all lies for a political purpose, with the eager complicity of parts of the media, to damage Trump's reputation and have stories and narratives to get eyeballs and ad revenue. The crime was from the prosecutors and judges, not Trump. But there the judicial system's bite had no teeth: All the cases are delayed for various reasons and, now that the election is over, have served their propaganda purpose and will disappear via various actions. It was all cooked up, made up, kangaroo court, dirty politics, lawfare, election interference".

There is no meaningful evidence that Trump is a "rapist". Again, that's propaganda.

> probable russian intelligence asset

Nonsense. Cooked up, made up, fake, contrived nonsense by Hillary Clinton and others to convince some naive people. The complicit, biased media got a lot of shocking headlines, eyeballs, and ad revenue.

The US Constitution has its First Amendment, "freedom of speech". So, people get to speak nearly anything, including lies and propaganda. It's up to the listeners to filter the truth from the rest.

> extreme right wing candiate

No good evidence. Not Trump. Just look at his statements and record -- he's solidly in the middle of the road. Ukraine? It's partially about NATO, will Ukraine belong to NATO? Get help from NATO? The far right has Cheney, John Bolton, and others who never wanted to pass up another opportunity for a war, e.g., for Ike's Military/Industrial Complex, war profiteers, one world*, US "New American Century", police the world people.

> Please explain.

Okay, just did that!

whoitwas 1 hours ago [-]
I mean ... if you support that guy. It's accurate.
redeux 2 hours ago [-]
This is likely game over for Democrats and democracy in the US. Democracy has already been on the backslide here for some time, so it’s not overly surprising, but I don’t expect either to last the next couple of years.
vundercind 1 hours ago [-]
Citizens United and the coup attempt neither being treated as five-alarm fires for our Democracy were probably the moments when a major slide toward authoritarianism became far, far more likely. Democrats just sat on their hands.

By the time we got to the news that at least two Supreme Court justices and very likely more are being bought, and collectively shrugged rather than making that the issue until they were out, well, that wasn’t so much a landmark on the way down as another ordinary day.

neotek 1 hours ago [-]
"Each act, each occasion, is worse than the last, but only a little worse. You wait for the next and the next. You wait for one great shocking occasion, thinking that others, when such a shock comes, will join with you in resisting somehow. You don't want to act, or even talk, alone; you don't want to 'go out of your way to make trouble.' Why not?-Well, you are not in the habit of doing it. And it is not just fear, fear of standing alone, that restrains you; it is also genuine uncertainty. Uncertainty is a very important factor, and, instead of decreasing as time goes on, it grows. Outside, in the streets, in the general community, 'everyone' is happy. One hears no protest, and certainly sees none. You know, in France or Italy there would be slogans against the government painted on walls and fences; in Germany, outside the great cities, perhaps, there is not even this. In the university community, in your own community, you speak privately to your colleagues, some of whom certainly feel as you do; but what do they say? They say, 'It's not so bad' or 'You're seeing things' or 'You're an alarmist.'

"And you are an alarmist. You are saying that this must lead to this, and you can't prove it. These are the beginnings, yes; but how do you know for sure when you don't know the end, and how do you know, or even surmise, the end? On the one hand, your enemies, the law, the regime, the Party, intimidate you. On the other, your colleagues pooh-pooh you as pessimistic or even neurotic. You are left with your close friends, who are, naturally, people who have always thought as you have....

"But the one great shocking occasion, when tens or hundreds or thousands will join with you, never comes. That’s the difficulty. If the last and worst act of the whole regime had come immediately after the first and smallest, thousands, yes, millions would have been sufficiently shocked—if, let us say, the gassing of the Jews in ’43 had come immediately after the ‘German Firm’ stickers on the windows of non-Jewish shops in ’33. But of course this isn’t the way it happens. In between come all the hundreds of little steps, some of them imperceptible, each of them preparing you not to be shocked by the next. Step C is not so much worse than Step B, and, if you did not make a stand at Step B, why should you at Step C? And so on to Step D.

"And one day, too late, your principles, if you were ever sensible of them, all rush in upon you. The burden of self-deception has grown too heavy, and some minor incident, in my case my little boy, hardly more than a baby, saying ‘Jewish swine,’ collapses it all at once, and you see that everything, everything, has changed and changed completely under your nose. The world you live in—your nation, your people—is not the world you were born in at all. The forms are all there, all untouched, all reassuring, the houses, the shops, the jobs, the mealtimes, the visits, the concerts, the cinema, the holidays. But the spirit, which you never noticed because you made the lifelong mistake of identifying it with the forms, is changed. Now you live in a world of hate and fear, and the people who hate and fear do not even know it themselves; when everyone is transformed, no one is transformed. Now you live in a system which rules without responsibility even to God. The system itself could not have intended this in the beginning, but in order to sustain itself it was compelled to go all the way."

— Milton Sanford Mayer, They Thought They Were Free: The Germans 1933-45

vundercind 31 minutes ago [-]
That entire book is excellent.
danparsonson 50 minutes ago [-]
Sums it up beautifully, thank you
rothron 1 hours ago [-]
These are the same noises that were made on the right prior to the election. As long as people are sufficiently mad about the status quo, the other party has a chance to take over.
jorts 1 hours ago [-]
Keep in mind this site swings heavily right wing.
matwood 1 hours ago [-]
Fiscally conservative, socially liberal (in that order) probably best describes HN.
tirant 6 minutes ago [-]
Economically liberal (as in Milton Friedman, Thomas Sowell) and socially liberal.

Trumps tends to be economically liberal internally and a conservative for international economics.

moomin 50 minutes ago [-]
I feel like that's a story HN and a lot of tech likes to tell itself, but the truth is that when push comes to shove they support candidates who are neither, but _are_ deeply right wing.

Concrete actions tell the real story.

ks2048 16 minutes ago [-]
I agree there are a lot of right wing, libertarian types, but I'm guessing just voting by the HN crowd would be a Harris landslide over Trump. For example, donations for Alphabet employees was supposedly 89% to democrats, 11% to republicans.
aydyn 1 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
girvo 1 hours ago [-]
It skews techno-libertarian, which is more right than left. Always has done, at least as long as I’ve been here. Makes sense considering the audience.
aydyn 1 hours ago [-]
There are certainly vocal and well spoken conservatives here, but by and large this site skews massively liberal. I mean just read this threads comments, ffs.
_heimdall 8 minutes ago [-]
If this is somehow the end of democracy here, it wasn't Trump's election that killed it. One election alone (or two if you believe both terms were the cause) couldn't likely kill an otherwise healthy democracy. Democracy would have been dead for my of my lifetime if this is the moment it becomes clear that its gone.

That said, I very much dislike Trump and would rather have an empty oval office (arguably we have that already), but I think his threat to democracy has been wildly overblown. Unless a rogue president throws out the book entirely, Congress would have to be the ones to actually get rid of most of our democratic processes and systems.

Al-Khwarizmi 28 minutes ago [-]
I see this claim often but (from my position as an outsider, not American) it doesn't look very plausible: Trump was already president once and that didn't happen, why would it happen now?
wil421 1 hours ago [-]
Highly unlikely. The next Governor of my state is likely that person who stood up to Trumps fraudulent voting claims. We will see if the Democrats can find a decent candidate but I doubt it. They used the same person twice with the same results.
_heimdall 7 minutes ago [-]
If the democrats were interested in winning they would have had a few options this election. The party seems to have other priorities that they always prioritize over winning though, and that hasn't worked out well for them.
aydyn 1 hours ago [-]
Bro, things will be more or less the same just like the last time (sans pandemic obviously).

I hate to break it to you but actually you are literally a major reason Trump won. People are tired of your bullshit rhetoric.

Get a grip on reality. Far from the end of Democracy, Trump was elected _by_ Democracy.

fidrelity 1 hours ago [-]
Someone democratically elected can still end democratic processes.
aydyn 1 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
mattgperry 1 hours ago [-]
But it isn't wrong, is it? Democracy elected Hitler, Hitler ended democracy in Germany. I'm not saying that is going to happen here, but your flippant comeback to a valid point is not a rebuttal.
lobsterthief 57 minutes ago [-]
This guy isn’t interested in having a real conversation with you btw
Tainnor 35 minutes ago [-]
I wish people didn't use the Hitler comparison because it always derails discussion (almost everyone is better than Hitler, even Trump). There are however enough other cases throughout history of people being elected and then becoming dictators.
eterps 23 minutes ago [-]
Interesting point.

Actually there are more interesting parallels to be found between Trump and Mussolini:

- Both displayed arrogant ignorance and avoided in-depth conversations

- Shared a tendency to appear knowledgeable rather than actually being knowledgeable

- Demonstrated hostility toward the press

- Appointed family members to high government positions

- Exhibiting thin-skinned reactions to criticism

- Showing contempt for experts and professionals

- Took credit for successes while blaming others for failures

- Working with existing nationalist movements

- Attacking democratic institutions as "enemies of the people"

But I don't think that would not derail the discussion. Pretty much any comparison with a dictator leads to painful discussion.

The question is, how would it even be possible to address this in a constructive way. I honestly don't know.

Tainnor 18 minutes ago [-]
> But I don't think that would not derail the discussion. Pretty much any comparison with a dictator leads to painful discussion.

Yes, but when the dictator is also someone who orchestrated the holocaust, the discussion becomes all about how Trump doesn't literally hate Jews etc.

aydyn 1 hours ago [-]
yeah its wrong as hell, but here we go again analogizing the situation to nazis. How did that work out for you this time?

My response is flippant because you dont actually have a good point. You wrap it up in 10 cents words and nice prose, but its still empty.

bagels 36 minutes ago [-]
Guy said he'd be dictator on day one and that sometimes it's okay to suspend the constitution. Some of us are concerned about what things he said might be true.
eterps 1 hours ago [-]
Huh?? But how is he wrong?
jmdots 31 minutes ago [-]
Edited: nevermind.
Dalewyn 16 minutes ago [-]
Read about Godwin's Law here: https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/GodwinsLaw

In a nutshell, you automatically lose any argument if you have to invoke Hitler or the Nazis.

tessierashpool9 1 hours ago [-]
how you know there's not going to be a pandemic
aydyn 1 hours ago [-]
I meant that the pandemic was something that did change things and wasnt "more or less the same". But that has little to do with Trump.
TrackerFF 43 minutes ago [-]
Yeah, that's the problem.

Last time we had the fake electors scheme, which was stopped due to someone having integrity.

How that Pence is gone, and Vance - who still claims the last election was stolen - what's going to stop round two, come 2028?

Have people been sleepwalking the past years?

mupuff1234 57 minutes ago [-]
Last time it wasn't a full sweep, who knows what's gonna happen now.
foobarbecue 1 hours ago [-]
Why are you so sure there will be no pandemic this time? I think mismanagement of Trump's CDC was a big contributing factor to the last one. Compare, e.g. how Obama's CDC successfully fought ebola.
mattmanser 2 hours ago [-]
You don't think the democratic state Governors will step up if there's even a hint of that happening?

In the end a lot of the money and power is mostly in blue states.

labster 1 hours ago [-]
Governors can be killed by executive order. It’s an official action so under the new Supreme Court ruling the President can’t be prosecuted. Anyone who carries out the order can be pardoned. The courts can of course reverse the executive order, but not resurrect a man so the case would be moot.

This is a man who has talked about shooting political opponents on the campaign trail, I’d be astonished if he doesn’t follow through if there will be no consequences.

testrun 1 hours ago [-]
Governors can be killed by executive order

This is a bald faced lie. Stop talking rubbish.

polotics 45 minutes ago [-]
The sequence of event presented by the poster you are responding to is indeed a joke in 2024. Can you however not see a future where it becomes a practical possibility?
light_hue_1 35 minutes ago [-]
When the liberals on the Supreme Court say this:

> Looking beyond the fate of this particular prosecution, the long-term consequences of today’s decision are stark. The Court effectively creates a law-free zone around the President, upsetting the status quo that has existed since the Founding. This new official-acts immunity now “lies about like a loaded weapon” for any President that wishes to place his own interests, his own political survival, or his own financial gain, above the interests of the Nation. Kore­matsu v. United States, 323 U. S. 214, 246 (1944) (Jackson, J., dissenting). The President of the United States is the most powerful person in the country, and possibly the world. When he uses his official powers in any way, under the majority’s reasoning, he now will be insulated from criminal prosecution. Orders the Navy’s Seal Team 6 to as­sassinate a political rival? Immune. Organizes a military coup to hold onto power? Immune. Takes a bribe in ex­change for a pardon? Immune. Immune, immune, immune.

Then the claim that the President can in their official capacity assassinate others with impunity and protection from prosecution is no lie.

https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23-939_e2pg.pdf

You're living in a pre-Trump world. The Supreme Court changed the rules while you were asleep.

startupsfail 1 hours ago [-]
That money and power doesn’t seem to be willing to move towards centrists policies. And there is a lot of power in the president, considering how unstable the world is the most likely scenario now is further consolidation of that power. And Russia or Israel are good examples, if anyone wants to see what happens after the power gets consolidated.
ekianjo 38 minutes ago [-]
> game over for Democrats and democracy in the US

So voting is the end of democracy? Interesting take

tail_exchange 26 minutes ago [-]
Because no dictators are voted into power? Hitler, Mussolini, Mugabe, Chavez...
llamaimperative 20 minutes ago [-]
“Not worried about Trumpism” is a near-100% accurate indicator of extreme ignorance of authoritarian regimes and of the American political system, unfortunately.
boomskats 1 hours ago [-]
Didn't the DNC kill democracy in the US all the way back in 2016?
ks2048 12 minutes ago [-]
No, way back in 2000, the Supreme Court prevented a recount of votes in Florida.
snickerbockers 1 hours ago [-]
I'm always amazed by how many people consider it a failure of democracy for the candidate they voted for to lose.
simonask 1 hours ago [-]
It's not that she lost, it's that somebody who seems to oppose democracy won.
tirant 5 minutes ago [-]
As a non-American, how does Donald Trump seem to oppose democracy?

That is the message continuously published here by generalist German newspapers, but I cannot find any substance behind it.

NotMichaelBay 29 minutes ago [-]
The candidate who was just voted into power is a convicted felon awaiting sentencing and also awaiting 2(?) other criminal trials which are now probably going to just disappear. It's objectively a failure of democracy.
Xeamek 1 hours ago [-]
You know that Hitler was literally voted into power, right?

I am NOT saying Trump is literally Hitler, but the idea that democratic vote can't have un-democratic outcome in the long run is simply false. It can, and history showed us that more then once

snickerbockers 1 hours ago [-]
That's the problem with this statement: Trump is not Hitler and any hypothetical "undemocratic outcomes" aren't apparent in the extreme short term. He hasn't run on a platform of eliminating democracy and there isn't any indication at this point that he will.
jamincan 46 minutes ago [-]
I've not been as immersed in the presidential race, but hasn't he explicitly said he wants to be a dictator, this is the last vote you will need, we should stop so and so from voting and so on? Like, right out of his mouth? How is that not an undemocratic platform?
snickerbockers 33 minutes ago [-]
> he wants to be a dictator

The full quote was that he was going to be a dictator but only on the first day. It's probably one of the dumbest things he's ever said, but the fact that he put a limit on his own supposed dictatorship contradicts him being a dictator. At any rate, while I'm not a fan of what he said, he definitely did not preclude the continuation of American democracy even if interpreted in the most literal possible way.

> this is the last vote you will need

He said that you [the people at his rally] aren't going to need to vote anymore because hes going to accomplish all his goals this time. Not that there won't be a vote or that his supporters won't be allowed to vote. They definitely won't be allowed to vote for him since he'll be at up against the term limit.

> we should stop so and so from voting and so on

This one I've never even heard before outside of him claiming that his opponents want to let non citizens vote

onlyrealcuzzo 52 minutes ago [-]
He ran on a platform that he won the 2020 election, and it was stolen.

How is that not anti-democratic?

ks2048 8 minutes ago [-]
He said many times very explicitly he will be a dictator on day one. We'll find out in a few months what the means exactly. I honestly don't know.
Sabinus 37 minutes ago [-]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_fake_electors_plot

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_6_United_States_Capito...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempts_to_overturn_the_2020_...

This stuff was not merely spicy words, it was dangerous. Democracy runs on norms and good people, and is precious and hard won. Trump being in power is a risk.

wyatt_dolores 43 minutes ago [-]
He has literally said "Vote for me, and you'll never have to vote again."
FractalHQ 36 minutes ago [-]
What about when he said he wanted to be dictator so people wouldn’t have to vote anymore? And when he made himself above the law with MAGA court justices? Or talked about a firing squad for his opponents and opening fire on peaceful protestors? Or when he attempted a violent coup on the White House? Or when he praised Hitler and asked for generals like Hitlers that will do anything he says without question? Or when he praised Putin, Kim Jun Un, and other the dictators of the world?
dsmithn 54 minutes ago [-]
“Except for day one”
formerly_proven 45 minutes ago [-]
> hasn't run on a platform of eliminating democracy

Didn't he literally say in his victory speech that he's now elected the 47th president, as he also was the 46th?

In the story Trump tells, he literally already is a third-term president.

kristiandupont 46 minutes ago [-]
He literally tried to overthrow the election 4 years ago. I mean, he wasn't exactly being subtle about it!
Jensson 37 minutes ago [-]
But in the end he didn't end Democracy, he let the democratic procedures take place, a fascist wouldn't do that.

> He literally tried to overthrow the election 4 years ago

Not openly, the people who went to the white house weren't under Trumps command. He argued against the election result using the proper tools of the democracy, you are allowed to do that.

I'm not sure why worry now when we already know he handed over the power once. Maybe it wasn't willingly but he will be forced to step down in 4 years as well.

Zak 17 minutes ago [-]
The call to Brad Raffensperger asking him to "find" votes has been public for years. I'm in disbelief that anyone could listen to that conversation and conclude it was anything but an attempt to steal the election.
Jensson 2 minutes ago [-]
Trying to cheat a few votes isn't more fascist than gerrymandering, it is corrupt but it isn't fascism.

If he had rigged the whole election I'd say it is fascism, but rigging a whole election is on such a different scale and planning and conspiracy level that it isn't the same thing, he didn't even try to rig the election.

kristiandupont 29 minutes ago [-]
> he let the democratic procedures take place, a fascist wouldn't do that.

He did so because he had no other choice. Mike Pence, of all people, rescued democracy. If it hadn't been for him, Donald Trump would not accepted the transfer of power.

And this is what the difference boils down to. You and I both know that Trump would have declared himself the winner no matter what the vote count had been. And we also both know that Harris is going to concede to Trump because the vote count says so.

Jensson 25 minutes ago [-]
Luckily it isn't the presidential candidates who decides the winner, so it doesn't matter who Trump or Harris thinks the winner is.
Xeamek 32 minutes ago [-]
>But in the end he didn't end Democracy, he let the democratic procedures take place, a fascist wouldn't do that.

Fascist wouldn't fail?

Again, You know Hitler literally tried a coup, failed and then switched to 'democratic' means?

Jensson 28 minutes ago [-]
> Again, You know Hitler literally tried a coup, failed and then switched to 'democratic' means?

Hitler never left the seat of power once he got it. Trump did. They are not the same. Hitler did a coup to try to get power, he failed at that, Trump already succeeded grabbing power (he got elected) and then left it.

Clubber 41 minutes ago [-]
>You know that Hitler was literally voted into power, right?

He was not. This is a popular misconception.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adolf_Hitler%27s_rise_to_power

AshamedCaptain 15 minutes ago [-]
What do you call being the majority party, winning referendums, etc?

Certainly there is a lot of voter intimidation, control of the press, etc. behind it, but I think that's precisely what is being debated here.

Clubber 13 minutes ago [-]
>What do you call being the majority party, winning referendums, etc?

Nazi's were not the majority party when Hitler ran for president, they were the largest party, but not majority. They weren't even a majority even when Hitler was appointed (not voted) chancellor by Paul von Hindenburg, the man who won the presidential election. There were a few more steps before he acquired absolute power, but none of them involved voting. It's interesting, read the article.

Like I said, it's a common misconception.

AshamedCaptain 11 minutes ago [-]
Well the largest party (as per HN rules please "use the best form of the argument", no need to nitpick), and not by a small margin . And you'll still argue he did not "win" elections?

(You could not "vote" a chancellor. In a lot of perfectly valid democracies, the PM position is always appointed, never directly voted, usually from the larger party or the at least the candidate most likely to pass a (constructive) motion of no confidence. So he was elected legally per the correct democratic process. Cleanly/Fairly -- that's another question. But would you really be surprised Hitler could win elections? He had pretty ridiculously good reputation in some circles. He would have likely polled pretty well even in the US.).

data_maan 58 minutes ago [-]
> I don't think the policy positions even matter that much, if you can make a strong case and gain the confidence of the electorate.

If this were true it would mean Americans are dumb as rock and don't really care about "boring", technocratic but important decisions like climate change, geopolitical alliances, etc. - and just want a showman to dazzle their softened brains.

UniverseHacker 57 seconds ago [-]
> just want a showman to dazzle their softened brains

Nietzsche made this case really strongly in his chapter/essay “The Flies in the Marketplace” back in the 1880s, and pretty well predicted how this would emerge play out half a century later in Germany. “ Full of clattering buffoons is the market-place,—and the people glory in their great men! These are for them the masters of the hour.”

kragen 19 minutes ago [-]
This is obviously true and has been for decades. Neil Postman's Amusing Ourselves to Death from 01985 makes the case fairly strongly, but probably even stronger evidence is that the US apparently just elected as president a Twitter troll and reality-show TV host who doesn't know how to capitalize English and signed bills with a Sharpie in his previous presidential term.
data_maan 18 minutes ago [-]
So... dumb as rock it is then?
kragen 13 minutes ago [-]
Yes, I said that was obvious.
numbsafari 57 minutes ago [-]
Yeah. Exactly.
weberer 26 minutes ago [-]
>I don't think the policy positions even matter that much

I disagree hard. You should have a strong policy that people can believe in. When the average person sees that the price of certain groceries are 3x what they used to be, they stop caring about petty personal attacks.

dtquad 17 minutes ago [-]
How are Democrats to blame for inflation caused by Trump-era COVID entitlements funded by money printing? Sure some of it continued for months into the Biden administration but the bulk of it happened under Trump.
weberer 3 minutes ago [-]
Why didn't they focus on that? I think the average person would care a lot more about that fact than Trump being convicted on 34 counts of not properly filing business records. Since inflation actually affects them. Yet the convictions took up no shortage of airtime in attack ads.
ecuaflo 47 minutes ago [-]
Probably not a good message to circumvent the democratic process and skip the primary either
boosting6889 41 minutes ago [-]
It is much simpler than that. My dad watches Fox News all day nonstop. When I say all day I mean he is watching it from the time he wakes up at 6am until going to sleep and doesn’t watch anything else. It does not matter who the democrats field, Fox News will just demonize that person and their viewers will vote accordingly. He does not even agree with any traditionally conservative ideology; he is pro-choice, pro-LGBT rights, pro-union, doesn’t like tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy doesn’t agree illegal immigration is a huge problem, but he votes for Trump because he watches Fox News nonstop. The one common thread among every Trump supporter I know is Fox News.
macspoofing 1 hours ago [-]
> The Democrats should have fielded a strong personality in their own right.

I think Biden's decision to run for a second term was what sunk them. That was a selfish decision. He then bowed out too late, and Democrats had to scramble and nominate the only viable alternative. Biden should have refrained from running last year in order to give the Democrats a full primary to choose a candidate.

c22 1 hours ago [-]
Agreed. I thought it seemed obvious back in 2020 that we'd see a candidate flip for this election, but no one in the Dem's leadership saw this coming? If they'd been positioning Harris and laying groundwork for the last four years this would have been an easy win for them.
prepend 39 minutes ago [-]
Or perhaps if they had used democratic practices and let the constituents of their party actually vote to choose who they thought was best suited.

Biden pulling out so close to election didn’t let them actually go through their process to elect their nominee. It’s quite possible democrats would have chosen a candidate who was not associated with Biden and thus more electable.

nirav72 35 minutes ago [-]
I think Biden is going to go down as the person that broke the democratic party. But in reality, the blame lies on Obama for convincing Biden to step aside in 2016 and let it be Hillary Clinton. Biden had a much better chance at beating Trump in 2016 than Clinton.
laniakean 25 minutes ago [-]
People were praising Biden for stepping aside, but he only stepped aside once he was forced. Had he made this decision earlier, the Democratic Party would have had the time to do a proper primary.
cxr 1 hours ago [-]
You think?
giantg2 31 minutes ago [-]
"I don't think the policy positions even matter that much, if you can make a strong case and gain the confidence of the electorate."

That's pretty sad state of the system. Policy positions should be the primary thing voters care about.

"It's about mobilizing people by giving them something to care about."

Yeah, but this is how you get the most extreme candidates. Look at the primaries. They have very small numbers of voters, and the voters in just a few states set the tone for those elections due to timing. You can make a huge difference by mobilizing voters with increasingly extreme positions or rhetoric. As you said, status quo doesn't energize. That means the people are less likely to get involved fir the staus quo unless they have a strong sense of duty about voting.

bko 1 hours ago [-]
I think it would have been better if they didn't hide Biden's mental deterioration and let the primary process pick out a better candidate. There isn't a single county that she outperformed Biden from 2020.
DrScientist 6 minutes ago [-]
It's about the courage to be honest- or perhaps just plain honesty.

Note I'm not saying Trump is honest - it's just some of the democrat dishonesty was off-the-scale.

As an example - "Biden is fine to serve 4 more years".

Such obvious dishonesty is really damaging when voting is largely emotional.

xbmcuser 46 minutes ago [-]
Democrats lost the enthusiasm once they sidelined Bernie Sanders for Hillary Clinton at that time they had a similar fire among it's voters. I feel they lost a lot of young male voters at that time and they are still paying for it
12 minutes ago [-]
pineaux 34 minutes ago [-]
Yes. At that point many people saw the corruption of the democratic party.
rmbyrro 37 minutes ago [-]
Nah.. as the old saying goes: "It's the economy, stupid."

Trump wasn't elected, the bad inflationary economy created by monetary shenanigans elected Trump.

agumonkey 2 hours ago [-]
I sincerely fear this will inject way too much inertia in wrong directions globally even if it sends a clear message to non right wing crowds.
1 hours ago [-]
ludsan 49 minutes ago [-]
> you won't win by claiming to be 0.1% less bad.

Please.

whoitwas 1 hours ago [-]
I can't understand. The orange goon can't complete a sentence, hates everything, crimes everything, is basically a 300# toddler... A literal toddler would be 99% less bad. If given the choice between Hitler and Trump ... at least you know what Hitler thinks. Trump will change his mind for an extra ketchup.
Applejinx 22 minutes ago [-]
He's run out of Russia, and that explains a lot. This is really a worldwide battle, but the death mostly isn't caused by bombs in most places.

It's caused by intentionally mismanaging health crises while sending healthcare to Putin. There's nothing mysterious about this. It's simple warfare, but on the terms used within the Russian regime domestically.

We've been the Zone for some time now, and the fog isn't any lighter this morning.

immibis 41 minutes ago [-]
From a game theoretical perspective the Democrat establishment is fine with this since they all support Trump anyway. They'd rather not be in power but have their policies represented in the President, than have the president but have him not do what they really want.
Tainnor 2 hours ago [-]
Not an American, but it's wild to me how anyone could describe Kamala as "0.1% less bad". She's an accomplished politician.
zarkenfrood 1 hours ago [-]
Accomplished politician wouldnt be a compliment though would it. One of the recent issues is bureaucratic bloat caused by career politicians. In that sense she would be less appealing.
Tainnor 57 minutes ago [-]
I understand that this appears to make sense for a lot of people but to me a president should... actually be qualified to be a president.

Otherwise, it's as if you had a string of bad CTOs and then decide to hire a gardener with no tech skills as your new CTO.

rascul 13 minutes ago [-]
Experience as a politician is not a qualification for US President
bilvar 26 minutes ago [-]
In a democratic system everyone should be fair game to hold office, that’s the whole point. What you’re advocating for is aristocracy and leading to phenomena such as career politicians existing, who are leeches to productive societies.
Tainnor 11 minutes ago [-]
It would be aristocracy if you had to be born into it.

Now, I'll admit that the US system of mostly only very rich people getting access to top universities is not exactly fair - but you can in principle become a politician no matter your background.

I don't think it's crazy to assume that qualifications matter. And most of the US's best presidents (such as Lincoln, both Roosevelts etc.) were highly educated and had had political careers before.

bilvar 8 minutes ago [-]
Err no. Let me educate you a bit. The word aristocracy is an ancient Greek word that means “Rule of the most capable/best”.
jeffhuys 2 hours ago [-]
What did she accomplish?
tomrod 2 hours ago [-]
jeffhuys 2 hours ago [-]
I honestly expected more, especially more specifics, but I recognize I'm biased. The reason I asked, is that nobody really knows when you ask them, which is what surprises me often. You needed to send me a link as well.

Of all those, I really like the insulin one.

I guess people in America have different priorities than the accomplishments on that list.

tomrod 2 hours ago [-]
I sent you a link for your review and reference, not because I couldn't name accomplishments. I prefer to respect the intellectual honesty of the person I speak with by providing citations for information they are unaware of.
pabl0rg 2 hours ago [-]
It says she “Led the push for the Domestic Workers Bill of Rights Act, federal worker unionization”. Federal worker unionization is very undemocratic b/c federal employees essentially blackmail voters. They become untouchable.
simonask 1 hours ago [-]
In most countries in the world, unionization doesn't mean "get everything you want", it means collective bargaining. It's an approach that cuts both ways, creating stable employment terms, which benefits both employer and employee.
mavamaarten 46 minutes ago [-]
Indeed. It's crazy to me that unionizing is seen as a bad thing by exactly the people that would benefit from them, these days.

They're only bad for big companies that prey on and abuse their workers.

ekianjo 27 minutes ago [-]
> She's an accomplished politician.

So accomplished she could not even win a primary against an old man and was the first one out.

roenxi 2 hours ago [-]
The accomplished politicians seem to struggle a bit because they have a history of being terrible. It isn't like Trump came out of nowhere - it has been most of a decade now and when he won in 2016 that was on the back of backlash that had obviously been brewing for a long time. It was notable in 2016 that he had to knock out Bushes and Clintons from the presidential race who visibly couldn't wring compelling support out of their insider status. The Bush family name was more of a serious liability because of the family history of, you know, the Bush years. Trump's most memorable line of attack on Jeb Bush was making callbacks to how bad George's tenure was (which isn't entirely fair, but it does go a long way to showcasing why being an "accomplished politician" is a handicap given how badly US policy has been playing out for the last few decades).

If the US political class had a history of success then being an accomplished politician might be a tick on the report card, but in practice it seems to mean that they have sympathies to the military-industrial complex and a number of extractive lobby groups.

lawn 2 hours ago [-]
Constantly lying, grifting, and being a convicted felon somehow is only worth 0.1%...

Anything of the shit Trump has done would be an immediate disqualification for anyone else, yet everything constantly gets a shrug.

amarcheschi 1 hours ago [-]
Imagine if a convicted woman were to be the democratic candidate
beeboobaa3 2 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
vbezhenar 1 hours ago [-]
They did exactly that 4 years ago and America didn't float anywhere. US state is surprisingly strong despite weird people in power. As to why old men with obvious dementia signs, who are unable to clearly reason without being on drugs (yes, both of them), are being candidates to President - that's a puzzle to me. Are those the best Americans for this work? I doubt it, so selection system does not work somewhere.
jeffhuys 2 hours ago [-]
So many doomers everywhere. This is exactly the same rhetoric as in 2016. Do y'all hear yourself? America isn't going anywhere, democracy isn't dead, calm down. The world won't end, and you know it. Being so over-the-top is why democrats lost anyways.
__egb__ 27 minutes ago [-]
Trump has said he won’t make the same mistake of having people like Kelly or Milley or Wray around.

Commander in Chief is an official duty of the President. With the Supreme Court ruling, is there such a thing as an illegal military order from the President anymore?

There are less guardrails in place now than were in 2016. It is dishonest to act like everything is the same.

seanp2k2 1 hours ago [-]
I’m 100% sure he’s committed to an even smoother transition of power in 2029 than 2021 /s
beeboobaa3 2 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
jeffhuys 2 hours ago [-]
I'm not American, no need to insult me. Also, I don't agree :)
scrollaway 2 hours ago [-]
It's weird how when a company gets acquired by Oracle, everybody here understands that it's dead day 1 but it'll still take years for people to feel the effect.

Yet when it's about a country of 400 million, there's zero concept that shit takes time.

You understand that the full-scale invasion of Ukraine was greatly helped by Trump's previous presidency, for example, right?

beeboobaa3 2 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
uxcolumbo 2 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
monstertank 32 minutes ago [-]
Trump voters think the conviction was excessive, the rapist claim is untrue, and that he is not a bad person.

They believe he will improve the economy and thus their lives.

They did not vote spitefully against Harris, however, due to the pressure from left wing controlled law makers, media, talking heads and general vitriol from the left of their opinions... they might have voted spitefully against progressives in opposition.

c22 58 minutes ago [-]
Yes, I think a lot of Trump voters are just trying to force this to a head so we can reset and shake the bugs out of what is clearly a political system that is going off the rails.
jck 52 minutes ago [-]
I think it is naive to attribute this victory to accelerationists. Trump has a very clear mandate and this seems to be what the American people want now.
ta20240528 1 hours ago [-]
> Do Trump voters really think he's going to improve their lives?

Nope, but ask how many of them expect their sons to have to kneel in the next four years.

You aren't asking the right questions.

PS. Not American, think he' a dick, but spent a half-century watching hundreds of millions where I live keep voting for the worst people.

leptons 1 hours ago [-]
If Hamas had not attacked Israel, trump probably would have lost. Plenty of people just didn't go out to vote this time, abstaining because they only care that Biden and Harris support Israel. Talk about cutting off their nose to spite their face.
Tainnor 33 minutes ago [-]
Statistics show that Israel/Palestine wasn't really an important issue for voters on either side.
potato3732842 28 minutes ago [-]
"my workplace does not allow open toed shoes" class Americans all over the political spectrum are sooooo much more sick of the foreign wars the "everyone in my workplace has some sort of college degree" class Americans think they are.
dtquad 13 minutes ago [-]
Not really. There is a reason Ron Paul didn't win in 2008 and 2012 despite dominating early social media.
alephnerd 40 minutes ago [-]
This hypothesis doesn't pan out when looking at states that flipped Blue to Red.

The biggest reason for Trump's win is the fact that 50% of Latinos, 46% of Asians, and 20% of African Americans voted for Trump - all significant increases compared to 2020.

And the biggest reason for that flip is because of Illegal Immigration and Inflation - for legal immigrants illegal immigration is basically a big F-you for following the correct path, and inflation has had a general impact nationwide.

mango7283 26 minutes ago [-]
At least MAGA types are open about their racism. There is an onerous brand of commentary now wishing harm on the minorities that voted Trump that highlights the disingenuous racism of proclaimed liberals...
alephnerd 19 minutes ago [-]
I'm Asian...

And my dad flipped to Trump for those very reasons.

The Trump team built a very strong minority outreach apparatus, and actually microtargeted based on ethnicity.

The Dems were not granular enough so their messaging didn't land.

xdennis 59 minutes ago [-]
> The more important question, who are those people that happily vote for a convicted felon, rapist

Some people voted for him because of that.

He was found guilty on 34 counts of paying a pornstar, Many people see it a persecution not prosecution because he doesn't even know what he's guilty of. The judge allowed jurors to decide on whatever secondary charge they wanted and not even have to tell him what it is. They didn't even have to agree on a single crime, as long as they all found a one.

He denied he raped that woman (who doesn't even remember what year she was raped in) so she sued him for defamation. Jury found him not guilty of rape, but guilty of sexual assault. The judge reversed the decision saying that sexual assault is basically rape so he awarded her millions of dollars.

In both cases laws were changed specifically so he could be charged. Alvin Bragg even ran for district attorney on a platform of getting Trump.

Donald Trump ran his 2016 campaign on getting Hillary, but never actually did it. The Democrats actually prosecuted him by any means necessary.

realusername 1 hours ago [-]
The media people consume will never portray Trump like you are doing just now, their vision of Trump is so distorted that you can't really even tell them any of those things, they will just disregard it as nonsense.
aydyn 1 hours ago [-]
Americans hate you. Thats why they voted for Trump. Think about it.
EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 1 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
Bost 1 hours ago [-]
Apparently that's the case.
lelanthran 1 hours ago [-]
> From a game theoretical perspective this is a good result. It is a clear reiteration of the message to the Democrats: you won't win by claiming to be 0.1% less bad.

Yeah, I said as much on a reddit comment prior to knowing the results: This is a good thing for the future of the Dems! They can now take this valuable feedback and put together a better platform to run on in future races.

Running on social activism isn't a winning strategy, no matter how loud that vocal minority is shouting.

a_victorp 1 hours ago [-]
This has happened before... I don't expect Dems to ever really learn this lesson
notnaut 26 minutes ago [-]
Why would they? The party in its current form exists as a reactionary pressure release valve for after the actual party of action deconstructs the roadblocks that keeps the money controlling both parties from self-replicating.
yoz-y 58 minutes ago [-]
What kind of political landscape will democrats come back to in 2028? Doesn’t project 2025 aim to dismantle a lot of the current establishment?
gmueckl 40 minutes ago [-]
Trump and Vance will almost certainly pull strings to erode the current political system in Washington with no regard for the spirit and likely even the letter of the constitution.
lelanthran 46 minutes ago [-]
> Doesn’t project 2025 aim to dismantle a lot of the current establishment?

Didn't the Reps distance themselves from that? Vocally and repeatedly?

You may think that that playbook is their playbook, but apparently their distancing themselves from it worked well enough.

vundercind 1 hours ago [-]
Did Harris run on social activism? I didn’t get that from the campaign’s messaging. Not Biden’s, either.
dgfitz 1 hours ago [-]
I believe social activism has been associated with the Democratic Party recently, I suppose it is implied when you run under their umbrella.
vundercind 29 minutes ago [-]
It’s rather tricky to fight this perception when it doesn’t primarily come from either one’s messaging or one’s actions.
e40 1 hours ago [-]
It’s clearly the perception. Before Harris entered the race.
creato 55 minutes ago [-]
It doesn't need to specifically be Harris or Biden's policies to drag them down. There's very obviously a backlash against some progressive ideology going on, and the democratic party is clearly at least partly beholden to adherents of that ideology. That's why Harris can't give obvious and clear answers to (some) simple policy questions.
hokumguru 42 minutes ago [-]
I can’t imagine what it’s like trying to moderate this thread right now so I just want to say thank you Dang!
Gud 19 minutes ago [-]
Yes! Thank you Dang, we all owe you a beer!
Rinzler89 15 minutes ago [-]
I don't have the feeling it's being moderated at all at the curent time. Plenty of comments calling out Trump voters as Nazi, bigots, fascists and misogynists here are not flagged/removed while other comments explaining why democrats lost do get flagged.

Regardless of ones feelings towards the Orange Man and his voters (over half the country!) you shouldn't be able break HN ToS and get away with it. So either moderation efforts are being overwhelmed (hats off to Dang) or HN is heavily politically biased from the userbase to moderation team.

cynicalpeace 20 minutes ago [-]
Parties basically switched sides this election. From 2008 to now: - Pro war party: Repubs -> Dems - Dick Cheney party: Repubs -> Dems - Elitist party: Repubs -> Dems - Working class party: Dems -> Repubs - Pro free speech party: Dems -> Repubs - Bigger spending party: Dems -> Repubs - Skeptical of large corps: Dems -> Repubs

There are some issues where they haven't switched (eg. abortion)

JansjoFromIkea 7 minutes ago [-]
RE: "Skeptical of large corps" do you mean their voter base or their actions? Because I seriously doubt whoever is replacing Lina Khan is going to be more skeptical of large corporations
dtquad 3 minutes ago [-]
JD Vance said he supports the anti-US-big-tech campaign of Lina Khan and that he thinks she has a place in the new admin.

They will most likely break up Google and Meta.

dtquad 7 minutes ago [-]
How are the repubs not pro-war?

They are pro-Israel and anti-Palestine.

They are pro-Russia and anti-Ukraine.

_heimdall 1 minutes ago [-]
The republicans I know have pretty varying opinions on those two wars. One pretty common thread is that they don't want us involved though, regardless of which side of the wars they align with.
whoitwas 8 minutes ago [-]
It's objectively true that the US stock markets are at an all time high. It's also true that MAGA wrecked our economy from 2016-2020. No one can predict what will happen with the markets, but I'm selling every stock I own.
JansjoFromIkea 3 minutes ago [-]
Maybe it wrecked the economy but all my US stock done extremely well over that span of time, even excluding the big crazy bump a bunch of them had over the first year of covid.

I expect the stock market to bloat like hell for a year or two at the expense of pretty much everything else.

phplovesong 2 minutes ago [-]
Total failure. As an european, its truly AMAZING how you could vote for someone like trump. The poor will get poorer, the dumb dumber and womans rights? Out the window. Leaopards will eat LOTS of faces in the coming 4 years.
m4r1k 16 minutes ago [-]
the biggest problem is the climate. with trump winning, most/all of the climate policies will be revered irreparably damaging our planet bringing us to the brink of extinction. ofc it won't be all trump fault, current trends are gloomy enough yet those are the very last few years to actually do something..
koolba 5 hours ago [-]
For some of us this is not unexpected at all. But the margin and the likely win of the popular vote should send a clear message.
underwater 3 hours ago [-]
Can you please explain to a non-America what is that message is? I hear this refrain all the time and all I get is a vague insinuation that people are not being listened to.
j-krieger 2 hours ago [-]
Stop calling working people without a college education stupid and stop alienating men. "Non-educated" people work just as hard or harder than the rest of us. I've been to college and the only thing it "educated" me in is Computer Science, which I majored in. I'm not in any way better as a human being than my friends working in construction. Quite the contrary, their job is far more important to society than mine. If I stopped my niche research tomorrow, no one would really care. If handymen, farmers, or truckers stopped working, there would be riots.

Also, the DNC should really stop forcing unwanted candidates down people's throats. It doesn't work, even when you spam social platforms with your narrative.

archagon 2 hours ago [-]
This is all moot now. We have a far-right supermajority in government. America is fucked for the next few decades at the very least. The DNC is no longer relevant.
carom 2 hours ago [-]
Calling republicans far right is the exact rhetoric that alienates and divides people. Take the next four years to try to find some common ground with the right.
_s 1 hours ago [-]
Not at all wanting to be confrontational- genuinely curious; if they’re not on the far right then where are they? The Democrats seem fairly centrist, and it’s the more wayward independents (eg Greens) that seem to be on the Left.

My perspective is European & Australian, so I wonder if that skews it.

archagon 1 hours ago [-]
They are absolutely far right, they just hate it when you call them that.
stogot 44 minutes ago [-]
Because it’s illogical. Far right implies there is an edge to a majority “right”. Calling the entire majority “far right” is just lazy adhominem attacks. Calling the entire the democrat party far left is equally stupid.
slightwinder 5 minutes ago [-]
> Because it’s illogical. Far right implies there is an edge to a majority “right”.

"far right" and "far left" are terms for contextualizing a political stance, based on the world view and actions. It's doesn't matter where the majority of people stands, they can be all far right or far left or in the center, it wouldn't change the definitions.

dns_snek 35 minutes ago [-]
Calling the democratic party "far left" is stupid for a different reason, viewed from a global perspective, they're probably best positioned as centre-right.
spiderfarmer 13 minutes ago [-]
Yeah, you’re mixing up a couple facts with opinions here.
carom 51 minutes ago [-]
They are a corporate party, just like the democrats. Supporting secure borders is not far right. Republicans have support of every race, they are not racist despite the media repeating that they are. Trump is very hesitant about getting involved in wars. I see nothing far right about them, maybe they are somewhat nationalistic instead of globalist, but the US is a diverse nation. At the end of the day they are just another corporate party that appealed more to the American people.
YetAnotherNick 44 minutes ago [-]
Can you define far right?
gorgoiler 8 minutes ago [-]
That some people are born better than others and they deserve more in life. It’s an incredibly appealing message.

If you think you’re exceptional, vote Gorgoiler ‘28!

spiderfarmer 11 minutes ago [-]
Why would you ask someone to define a known concept that has been around for decades? It’s not like definitions are based on someone’s opinion.
n4r9 15 minutes ago [-]
According to Wikipedia, "Far-right politics ... are typically marked by radical conservatism, authoritarianism, ultra-nationalism, and nativism"

Digging into the page for radical conservatism, "Elements of ultraconservatism typically rely on cultural crisis; they frequently support anti-globalism – adopting stances of anti-immigration, nationalism, and sovereignty – use populism and political polarization, with in-group and out-group practices.[3][4][5][6] The primary economic ideology for most ultraconservatives is neoliberalism.[6] The use of conspiracy theories is also common amongst ultraconservatives.".

Trump is well-known for his populist, anti-globalist, anti-immigration, and pro-nationalist rhetoric. He has also promulgated conspiarcy theories such as the Obama birther conspiracy and claims of stolen elections.

As for authoritarian, Trump forms a textbook example of a personality cult. He frequently attacks existing institutions and an independent media, undermining trust in a free democratic process. He frequently issues positive messages about authoritarian dictators in other countries such as Bolsonaro, Orban and Putin.

Yaina 1 hours ago [-]
Common ground. The whole democratic apparatus of the United States might get severely hollowed out for the foreseeable future, and you're talking about finding common ground.
spiderfarmer 9 minutes ago [-]
What he means is: please let us hollow out democracy without you interfering.
gmueckl 37 minutes ago [-]
The positions the Republicans voiced in their campaign cam ony be summarized as far right. So applying the moniker to the party in it's current form is accurate. The party isn't the same as their voters/supporters.
e40 1 hours ago [-]
Perhaps you haven’t been listening to the rhetoric of republicans.
ChrisRR 41 minutes ago [-]
As a non-american, I don't see what else they could be defined as. Why try to seek a middle ground with the far right when they clearly don't want to
moomin 47 minutes ago [-]
That really isn't the primary alienating and divisive rhetoric from this election. It's just the bit you didn't like.
lobsterthief 49 minutes ago [-]
It seems to me like those in power should be the ones to attempt to find common ground with those they govern.

Am I crazy to think that?

spiderfarmer 7 minutes ago [-]
They like authoritarianism for a reason: they simply don’t care about other people. The lack of empathy is chilling.
siffin 52 minutes ago [-]
Why is everyone else responsible but the people responsible? Not calling out fascism is surely just as problematic.

Do you have any data (except for interpersonal psychology) on whether letting fascism slide or calling it out ultimately makes the situation worse? At what point do you call fascism fascism? When it's too late?

Jensson 43 minutes ago [-]
> At what point do you call fascism fascism? When it's too late?

You call it fascism when it is fascism. Once it is openly fascist then it is probably too late to stop, but you don't call it fascism until it is fascism.

theonething 22 minutes ago [-]
How exactly is Trump/Republican party fascist?
siffin 4 minutes ago [-]
Let's hope we never have to find out, but so many people captivated by a conman while simultaneously crying about everyone else's position is a recipe for abuse.

Separating children from parents at the border, reverting hard fought women's right to their own body, that is the stirring of fascist behaviour.

spiderfarmer 6 minutes ago [-]
You could try to answer this yourself by looking up the definition and cross checking it with the rhetoric from the republican party during this campaign.
mbs159 24 minutes ago [-]
In my country in Europe our most "right-wing" parties would be considered leftist in the US, so hopefully this brings into perspective just how extremely right-wing republicans are.
21 minutes ago [-]
Applejinx 19 minutes ago [-]
No. Turns out I found common ground with Liz and Dick Cheney. Wouldn't have had that on my bingo card in 2016.
lm28469 42 minutes ago [-]
I mean, they call Harris a communist so all bets are off. Even Sanders would barely register on the left side pretty much anywhere in the western world
archagon 2 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
nazka 1 hours ago [-]
Actually that statement shows exactly the political and societal problems there is today in the US. If people can’t even talk together and even get insulted it’s going to go even worst.
archagon 1 hours ago [-]
There is really no worse left to go.
theonething 21 minutes ago [-]
Your illogical and hyperbolic rhetoric is part of the problem.
nazka 1 hours ago [-]
Ho really? Did not history teach us everything that is happening today and can happen tomorrow ?

It can go worst as in a civil war. To a full split of the country in x countries. Now I don’t think it will happen but saying it can’t go worst is both factually false and not anchored in reality

pessimizer 40 minutes ago [-]
Nothing has happened to you. Nothing is happening to you. If you're in hell, than what is Gaza?
Spooky23 54 minutes ago [-]
There’s no bottom, bro.
casey2 52 minutes ago [-]
It's just the standard leftist doublethink of the past decade. Any realistic definition that labels 99% of Republicans as far right would label 95% of Democrats far right too. If their ideas were popular they would have started their own party a decade ago instead of being ground up in the DNC.

They claim "harm reduction" but that's not how just not voting works, 95% is still a super majority and anything you "win" is just tokenism at the end of the day.

DiscourseFan 2 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
lqet 21 minutes ago [-]
> Quite the contrary, their job is far more important to society than mine.

Non-american here, but I feel pretty much the same way. I also do niche research in computer science. People working in the supermarket, people driving trains and busses, medicine workers, construction workers, they all do work that is vastly more important to society than mine. A single educator in my child's kindergarten most likely does work that is orders of magnitude more important to society than mine is. Maybe this attitude comes from the fact that both of my parents never set a foot into higher education, but it is something I feel very strongly, and which is quite humbling.

I remember my father predicting in the early 2000s that the academic elite was increasingly crippling the country by adding more and more non-pragmatic rules in seek of some idealistic utopia, and that they would lose the support of the masses pretty soon. As a young teenager, I did not believe him, and in my arrogance of youth, I also dismissed it as the ramblings of an uneducated worker. But sure enough, most of the things he feared back then turned out to come true.

rtpg 2 hours ago [-]
I understand calling people stupid is not a strategy to convince someone.

But it’s not like that is why someone votes for Trump, right? It’s maybe more of a way to disincentivize conversions back.

I… really wish there had been a primary though. Biden deserves to be hated for the rest of his life for this (along with all of his other decision making)

j-krieger 2 hours ago [-]
I wish there had been a primary, too. The DNC did a massive disservice to the American people.
johnny22 1 hours ago [-]
there was no time to have a real primary with biden dropping out when he did if she still wanted to end up on ballots.
notnaut 16 minutes ago [-]
Yes. It was Biden and his team’s decision to prop him up til it was too late.
pessimizer 35 minutes ago [-]
They should have had a primary instead of having a ritualistic anointing of Biden. The reason Biden had to drop out is because he was there when he shouldn't have been.

I can vaguely understand fixing a primary for H. Clinton, but for Biden? One of the things Biden ran on in 2020 was a vague indication that he would leave after one term.

happyraul 33 minutes ago [-]
If one handyman or one farmer or one trucker stopped working, no one would really care. If all CS researchers stopped working, I'd wager people would care, just as they would if handymen/farmers/truckers stopped working.
y7 2 hours ago [-]
What I don't get is how the bar for the Democrats seems to be so much higher than for Trump. Sure, "the typical man" is more easily validated by Trump than Harris, but at the same time Trump says much worse things about women than Harris about men. I can see how the Harris seems more "elitist" in a way than Trump, but to me that seems like a subtle negative versus Trump's long list of very obvious flaws.

How does the hatred for the Democrats get so big?

soco 2 hours ago [-]
We call that "double standard" and it's top on the list of common fallacies. The lack of education, whether I demonize it or not, definitely has a saying in its spread. And dismantling the department of education won't help getting people more educated in the following elections.
danmaz74 1 hours ago [-]
My impression is that it's not about what Kamala Harris (or most Democrats) said, but the fact that the Republicans were able to create the perception that there are strong movements which hate "whites" and which hate "men" (in various combinations), and that voting Democrats would help those movements. Apparently, they were able to convince enough non-white men and white women that Trump will be better for them.
dbspin 2 hours ago [-]
I think the difference is that Harris (less so than Clinton but to some extent) was seen as representing a liberal consensus that men, particularly white, heterosexual men are 'over', that the 'future is female', etc.

Trump is just Trump. A rhetorically violent, deeply unpleasant convicted rapist, but not the vanguard of an explicitly misognist movement. At least not one thats culturally hegemonic. So while American progressives may label Trump voters sexist or racist, the overwhelming majority of them don't see themselves that way. Meanwhile, a highly vocal minority of progressives do actively demean men, while people, straight people etc, and have for a decade. They've enacted DEI practices, and scholarship and funding practices that exclude men from fair participation in the workforce, education and the arts. As efforts to correct historic imbalances in that participation. At the same time, they've ignored how male participation in higher education has dropped off, the epidemics of alienation and underemployment affecting men.

Edit: Just to clarify I'm addressing the question - not advocating Trump, or suggesting that life for men or white people or straight people is in fact materially worse. Just pointing out people strongly dislike being disliked, actively biased against and demeaned and this does in fact affect their voting preferences.

archagon 2 hours ago [-]
Yes, being a woman in power is clearly a political statement in this country.
lobsterthief 53 minutes ago [-]
Some people definitely think it is.
dbspin 54 minutes ago [-]
I'm genuinely at a loss as to how that connects to anything I wrote. It's not Harris' gender that was the issue - to the extent that the position I'm taking helped shift the dial. It's the perception that she would continue the policies and forward the ideological perspectives listed above. It doesn't help that she seems extremely disingenuous and politically opportunistic. Trump is of course both these things - but conservatives seem to care less about that, likely because of the redemption narrative built into Christianity. You can be as much of a villain as you like provided you push that button. It's worth noting that Obama and Bill Clinton both pushed their Christianity when campaigning, and that appeal wasn't lost on evangelicals. Progressives, it would be difficult not to admit, are pretty adamantly set against redemption currently.
Applejinx 14 minutes ago [-]
It doesn't. Part of what you're seeing is just straight up cheating. Florida wouldn't allow election observers. It might take a little while to sink in, but American elections are more or less running like Russian elections at this point, and these results are what you get when it's not honest. Sometimes it's like this, and sometimes the leader figure is said to get like 99% of the vote, when he doesn't feel like playing coy about it. It's up to him, not you.

America started when it rebelled against being ruled. I'd say that's not entirely off the table. First it has to become clear that we're getting ruled, not represented.

lynx23 2 hours ago [-]
I dont know about the USA. But I know from personal experience, that COVID politics destroyed my trust in left-leaning parties. I voted left until 2020. I will never give them my vote again, ever.
Reviving1514 1 hours ago [-]
I would be interested in learning what happened during COVID that led to this, if you have the time to talk about that. No worries if not, of course.
n4r9 2 hours ago [-]
That's madness. Trump - along with several other right-wing figures in the US and globally - consistently downplayed COVID's danger, went on wild tangents about hydroxychloroquine, ultra-violet light, and injecting disinfectant, and challenged the use of effective measures such as face masks and social distancing.
Applejinx 11 minutes ago [-]
Yes. To me, it looks like this was intentional, as a form of warfare against the country. I mean, it sure worked, and it's said that RFK Jr., a weird crank, will get put in charge of all healthcare. That basically means all medicine becomes underground, forbidden.
1 hours ago [-]
j-krieger 2 hours ago [-]
Trump doesn't alienate a specific group of hardworking Americans who turn out to vote. The people who are turned off by him largely don't vote at all.

> but at the same time Trump says much worse things about women than Harris about men

One would think so, but Trump's talk about women is just how society in general talks about women. As sad as it is, women are used to that rhetoric.

> How does the hatred for the Democrats get so big?

Multiple high profile members of the Democratic Party actively demonize rural Americans and especially men.

zip1234 2 hours ago [-]
Trump talks shit about everyone—somehow all his supporters ignore that he has trashed each and every one of them at some point
n4r9 2 hours ago [-]
You're saying that Trump won because US society is misogynistic?
j-krieger 2 hours ago [-]
In essence, yes. I'm saying that Trump's narrative on women is no worse than societies default. Women experience far worse things than macho talk. It takes more to alienate a lot of them.
n4r9 1 hours ago [-]
It feels like you're balancing two conflicting notions here:

1. Stop calling average people ignorant.

2. Average people are misogynistic.

dutchCourage 2 hours ago [-]
Was Kamalas campaign demeaning to the working class and alienating men?

I was under the impression that the Dems were doing more for the working class, and that Trump was alienating women.

dkdbejwi383 2 hours ago [-]
It's a good marketing case-study.

Costed policies that are feasible and attainable in one-term? Boring

Promises of fantastic wealth and glory? Much more appealing

Same thing the Brexit campaign failed on.

carom 1 hours ago [-]
Flooding the country with millions of undocumented workers to compete with Americans is not a favor to the working class. That is a hand out to corporations.
Olreich 43 minutes ago [-]
I can’t find any statistical reporting to back there being millions more undocumented immigrants coming into the country in the last 4 years. Data-backed reporting indicates that we’ve had ~11 million undocumented workers since the 2005 with little change until 2020. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/07/22/what-we-k...

Any chance you know where to find some more?

onlyrealcuzzo 38 minutes ago [-]
Ah, yes, because all those people are working at Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft.

It's a handout to anyone buying those services and a loss to anyone selling them (trade workers).

Companies can't "just hire" illegal immigrants in most states - the majority of the ones Trump won.

thiht 1 hours ago [-]
It was not, but the Trump campaign continuously lied about it. Trump lied and lied and lied about the democratic party being anti-men, anti-cis, anti-Christian, Kamala being low IQ, and whatever other stupid shit he could think about, but somehow it's Harris fault for being "too divisive" (not sure how).

Trump is the incarnation of a thin-skinned bully, he allows himself the worst but will cry as loud as possible on the first sign of a backslash.

If people who voted for him are not stupid, they certainly act like it.

theonething 14 minutes ago [-]
And I view Kamala as a fake, policy flip-flopping, question dodging word salad spewer.

> If people who voted for him are not stupid, they certainly act like it.

This attitude of "you must be stupid if you don't see things my way" I expect on Reddit, but am disappointed to see it here.

onlyrealcuzzo 36 minutes ago [-]
> If people who voted for him are not stupid, they certainly act like it.

Being stupid is not a prerequisite to being apathetic.

nabakin 51 minutes ago [-]
Both represent the working class, just different subsets. Rural working class vs urban working class.
vkou 1 hours ago [-]
The Kamala campaign had one and only one major problem.

COVID stimulus and an economic slowdown from 2020 caused four years of inflation in the entire world, and people see the price of milk going up and punish the incumbent (not even the person who was in charge in 2020.

At which point, it doesn't matter how you campaign, or if the opposing candidate is actual Satan, nobody's going to vote for the incumbent.

It also doesn't help that the press normalized actual insanity that would not have been tolerated from anyone else, and collectively pretended that it's normal and reasonable behavior.

c22 20 minutes ago [-]
It does matter how you campaign. Very few people live without access to information beyond the price of milk. If you see that global inflation is a thing and that it is a topic of importance for potential voters you could acknowledge that it exists and work on your messaging/make it look like you're trying to do something to fix it.
0xEF 2 hours ago [-]
Depends on who you ask. Both sides demonize the other, but say they don't. Republicans are just much, much better at it. The ads and rhetoric are all designed to solicited emotional responses from the constituency, putting them in a very easy position to "Other" anyone who disagrees. If you can make your followers feel like they are disenfranchised then it's a simple matter to control them by promising to be the solution for their discontent.

Project 2025 also helped, since Democrats answered it with shock and horror instead of countering with their own improved version. Say what you will about the depravity contained within those pages, but Trump voters hold it up as "at least it's a plan" without having read it, much like their other beloved book, The Bible. Knowing that, it was quite easy for the Trump campaign to whip up support.

As much as I want to end with some pithy comment like "manipulation is a hell of drug," I can't. Half the country just got permission to put their ugly truths on display and they certainly did not disappoint. I have trouble laughing about that anymore.

theonething 12 minutes ago [-]
> Republicans are just much, much better at it.

Isn't it the Democrats who sling words like nazi, fascist, racist, deplorable, trash?

matwood 1 hours ago [-]
The working class and young men (all young people really) have been completely left out of the economic recovery. Harris saying she would change nothing about what Biden has been doing was a huge problem. She tried to address it later.

At the end of the day, "it's the economy, stupid".

ruthmarx 2 hours ago [-]
You are correct, but bizarrely working class people still think the GOP is the party that works in their favor. Despite literally increasing taxes for them and giving tax cuts to the rich.

Tonight's election flat out showed that democracy doesn't work with an uneducated population.

2 hours ago [-]
yladiz 2 hours ago [-]
Which candidate was unwanted?
j-krieger 2 hours ago [-]
Harris. She was dead last in the 2020 primary.
lupusreal 2 hours ago [-]
The one that didn't win their primaries.
EricDeb 2 hours ago [-]
Yea Kamala should not have been the candidate. She was tied to Biden who was associated with inflation which I think really decided this. I'm not sure the rest of your comment has that much to do with it
theshrike79 2 hours ago [-]
"Associated with" not "caused by".

This is why we call Trump's voters "stupid", the US is still under Trump's tax plan until 1/2025. So if someone has an issue with taxes, it's not Biden's fault even though he is in office.

I know this and I'm not even American

iinnPP 2 hours ago [-]
Inflation and taxes are two different things.
vkou 1 hours ago [-]
Inflation was caused by the Covid stimulus of 2020, and the mountains of free money printed that year (which is why it hit the entire world - every government did the exact same thing). Last I checked, Biden wasn't president at the time...
iinnPP 52 minutes ago [-]
I merely pointed out that taxes and inflation are different things and that the respondent said one, where they were replying to the other.

Making it a left or right issue makes no sense given the content of my post was to point out the mismatch in arguments.

EDIT: This post is the same thing fwiw.

MisterBastahrd 1 hours ago [-]
Given that Trump's economic policies are primarily the cause of inflation in the US, not sure what your point is. He printed and gave away 8 trillion dollars when combined with his tax cuts for the wealthy and people wonder why the cost of everything went up. Corporations across the planet were the beneficiaries of corporate welfare as governments printed money to battle COVID, and then they pocketed the profits and told their employees that they couldn't afford to give them raises.
theshrike79 27 minutes ago [-]
Doing stock buybacks with government stimulus is next level evil shit - but there were zero penalties for doing it, so why not?
dkdbejwi383 2 hours ago [-]
> She was tied to Biden who was associated with inflation which I think really decided this.

What about the rest of the world who've also been experiencing the same?

It's a very shortsighted take, and we've seen the same in the UK where Liz Truss 6 weeks as PM has taken the blame for global inflation in the court of popular opinion

EricDeb 2 hours ago [-]
Of course, its not logical, but voters "feel" they were better under trump without realizing inflation was a global phenomenon. This was also a failure of Dem messaging.
mytailorisrich 2 hours ago [-]
What you've written is exactly what happened in the UK during the Brexit referendum. The lessons still haven't been learned.
d4rti 2 hours ago [-]
What happened is that the remain side had to fight on the side of a reality that existed and the Brexiteers made up a fantasy future that has failed to materialise.
ben_w 2 hours ago [-]
> Brexiteers made up a fantasy future

Worse: many different and mutually incompatible fantasy futures, which they denied ahead of the referendum, and which after the referendum became a source of infighting that made all possible Brexits impossible to get past Westminster until Johnson came along and lied to everyone to get enough support to actually close a deal.

(The only time I can think of when digging a deeper hole got anywhere, even if the where was a… I guess in this metaphor: a disused basement where the stairs were missing?)

mytailorisrich 2 hours ago [-]
Your comment somewhat illustrates the point. It disparages those who voted for Brexit instead of trying to understand them, which is a recipe for eventual failure as we've seen.

Judging by this thread, it's still not possible to have a discussion on this...

chimprich 34 minutes ago [-]
> It disparages those who voted for Brexit instead of trying to understand them,

But why? Why is it the job of the people who are on the side of established truth who have to understand the views of the fantasists? I saw more "disparagement" from the pro-Brexit crowd than the Remainers. Why isn't it their responsibility to understand the realist position?

We told them Brexit would be a disaster. We were told we were scaremongering. It went ahead anyway, and it turned out to be awful. It was a stupid decision, and it was terrible judgment.

Why can't we tell people that some proposals are stupid? And why can't we tell people after the fact that they made a stupid decision? How is it our fault that they make bad decisions?

d4rti 1 hours ago [-]
There was nothing coherent to understand. A rag tag coalition mainly built on delusional positions.

- we can have all the trade benefits without freedom of movement (specifically denied by EU at the time, didn't materialise)

- we will have 'more trade' afterwards (fails to understand how trade works)

- we won't have to follow EU rules (in reality, we can't really diverge that much from how the EU works without incurring penalties)

- we won't have to pay anything to them / we hold all the cards / ... (we did pay for our liabilities and we definitely didn't hold the cards)

- we can become much more left wing if we leave the neoliberal EU (fails to account for the fact our country isn't particularly left wing overall)

- politicians will have to take responsibility/can't blame the EU (brexiteers keep blaming the EU even now, BJ et.al. have faced minimal or no consequences for their actions)

- we can fish again (ignores relative importance of fishing vs the actually productive economy, disregards that EU is a big market for said fish)

What do you suggest we engage with?

ozim 31 minutes ago [-]
Well oversight on financial institutions by EU is gone, yeah you still have regulations for normal business that you have to do with EU. But super rich and corporations can drop their money in UK puppet territories and EU is not going to have pressure points. Google "UK tax havens" and I bet brexiteers were handsomely paid for their efforts by people who want that scheme to continue instead of sharing any of that money with EU.
amarcheschi 2 hours ago [-]
As in, they were right calling people bigots if they wanted to get out of the eu? That definitely didn't improve uk, I've even heard about people feeling "betrayed" by the now valid tariffs that damaged their UK business
ben_w 2 hours ago [-]
I believe the argument being made is that calling spades spades is bad when spade is an insult and you need to convince the spades to vote for you.

Which is also why Republicans calling Democrats childish names such as "Dummy-crat" or saying "socialist" (or "commie") for all things to the left of their Overton Window doesn't convince any to their left to change their minds rightward.

amarcheschi 2 hours ago [-]
I think that might be the culprit, but then you have no escape. Some post brexit interviews have been - at least for an European - quite hilarious. I feel sorry for them tho, but it's sort of a leopards ate my face situation
ben_w 1 hours ago [-]
Indeed, and similar.

I used to live in Cambridge; I knew only one person who was a long-time UKIP voter in EU elections, who was "delighted" by the result of the referendum.

Even though I'd already been openly discussing moving to Germany ahead of the referendum, and went on an InterRail trip immediately before it to find a place to move to in the event of Leave winning, he did not comprehend that my reaction to the result included cutting him out of my life entirely.

He wanted the Cambridge to shrink, I left. That's his face leopard.

(As for intelligence: he also sometimes boasted of being in the international maths olympiad, this was Cambridge after all).

mytailorisrich 2 hours ago [-]
Working class people who, especially, wanted to control immigration were called bigots, uneducated, stupid, racist, etc and were ignored. Result is that they voted for Brexit. No, that didn't change anything because this was ignored by the establishment (both Labour and Conservatives) and that is still festering with the resulting rise of the Reform UK party (of Nigel Farage who's celebrating with Trump in Mar-a-Lago right now).
imp0cat 2 hours ago [-]
Here's a better analysis of the Brexit thing which was posted here yesterday. It was mostly decided by the fact that the pro-Brexit people had better marketing campaign.

https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/q-and-a

rgblambda 52 minutes ago [-]
Your "analysis" is from someone involved in the Brexit campaign. Of course Cummings is going to say he was amazing at marketing.

Another argument would be that Vote Leave broke campaign spending rules. In countries with legally binding referenda, that would justify rerunning the referendum. But in the UK it was "only advisory".

mytailorisrich 2 hours ago [-]
"Better marketing" campaign is another word for saying that they understood people's concerns better and were thus able to use that to their advantage instead of insulting the people they were supposed to convince (as the Remain campaign did). This is what Cummings did to win.
chimprich 16 minutes ago [-]
> instead of insulting the people they were supposed to convince (as the Remain campaign did)

Can you point to any examples of this? I don't think the official Remain campaign did anything of the sort. Insulting the people you are trying to convert is a poor strategy, which is why I don't believe they did it.

When you say "were called bigots, uneducated, stupid, racist, etc", what I think happened was that the Leave campaign alleged that that was what the Remainers thinking/saying and it gained traction.

Dylan16807 2 hours ago [-]
Use that to their advantage by telling the truth or by lying?
2 hours ago [-]
lynx23 2 hours ago [-]
I couldn't agree more. This "my political enemy is stupid" approach is very divisive and will not lead to good outcomes.
unrealhoang 50 minutes ago [-]
How come? Trump’s just won an election with it.
tessierashpool9 2 hours ago [-]
But Scholz, Esken and von der Leyen are really popular! Oh wait, we're talking US politics here, my bad ...
ruthmarx 2 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
tessierashpool9 2 hours ago [-]
and everybody just pointing out that climate protection cannot be forced onto a population is also framed as a climate change denier. i don't deny climate change. but i don't see why current generations' lifes should be tougher just to help out future generations. there needs to be a healthy balance.
jltsiren 1 hours ago [-]
That's what the previous generation said in the 90s. They could afford that choice, because they knew they would likely be dead before climate change started really affecting everyday life. Our generation – those who are not close to retirement – does not have the same luxury. Our future will be tougher anyway, both from the climate change itself and from the efforts to mitigate its effects.
Olreich 31 minutes ago [-]
Do you want your children to have a better life than you? They won’t unless we start putting in the work to fix climate change.

As a species we took on some climate debt to improve our standard of living, and we’ve been talking bigger loans every year. Those loans are coming due in the form of larger and more frequent weather-based disasters as well as health problems for millions. If we start paying off the loan more aggressively now, we can help prevent harsher payment plans for the next 50 years.

You don’t pay off a house all at once, but you’ll thank your future self for paying it off earlier rather than later.

tessierashpool9 26 minutes ago [-]
i don't have children and i don't care about the future of our species. solution is easy - don't bring children into this world. having said that; life always finds a way and even dire future projections won't be much worse (maybe not even close) to stone ages, dark ages or natives living in a jungle. and they all did well enough and do. that's how it is.
j-krieger 2 hours ago [-]
People with these beliefs tend to largely vote Trump. On the other hand, not every one who votes Trump has these beliefs. You can't just inverse this.
dmm 2 hours ago [-]
> think a zygote is equivalent to an infant

Missouri and Florida were won by Trump and both passed constitutional amendments to guarantee abortion access.

> think vaccines cause autism

I don't think this is a partisan issue. I've spoken to plenty of liberals who believe similar things. Basically the "crunchy mom" stereotype.

satvikpendem 1 hours ago [-]
Florida's failed to pass
dmm 33 minutes ago [-]
Thanks, I didn't realize that it needed 60%. It only got ~57%.
creato 27 minutes ago [-]
But it outperformed Trump in the vote totals, so the point stands.
leptons 38 minutes ago [-]
The road is clear now for the right-wing to ban abortion federally.
arkey 2 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
ruthmarx 2 hours ago [-]
> We should never doubt climate change as is presented to us,

Oh god, you're one of them, aren't you?

It's not like there's literally decades of evidence showing climate change to be objective truth...

Sigh.

Great job.

vetinari 41 minutes ago [-]
Climate change is a part of Earth's lifecycle. There have been ice ages, and there have been periods like jura, when it was warmer. It's all natural.

What you probably mean is how humans influence this cycle; whether accelerating or delaying it, in effect disrupting it. For that, there's no evidence; however, there are many politician lobbyists (and yes, also scientists taking advantage of juicy grants to deliver what was ordered) going to capitalize on the fear that it might be.

ruthmarx 7 minutes ago [-]
> how humans influence this cycle; whether accelerating or delaying it, in effect disrupting it. For that, there's no evidence;

Le sigh.

mandmandam 4 minutes ago [-]
Here is a graph to explain the difference between what's happening now and previous changes:

https://xkcd.com/1732/

Do you get it?

mandmandam 2 hours ago [-]
~99.9% of studies agree on human-caused climate change [0].

We know, with absolute certainty for an undeniable fact, that Exxon's own climate scientists skillfully and accurately predicted climate change as a result of increasing fossil fuel use [1].

And we know that Exxon's response to that was to systematically sow doubt for decades, using tobacco-lobby style FUD tactics.

And yet you want us to err on the side of apocalypse. "What if we create a better world, and it was all for nothing".

You've been conned. I know how difficult it is to show someone they've been made a fool of, and I won't try. In fact, I agree with you that in many cases science ought to be questioned - lobotomies, mockery of germ theory, racism presented as science based, Daszak's infamous Lancet paper, etc.

On climate change though, there's very little to respect on the side of deniers. I would argue that, at this point, denying anthropogenic climate change amounts to treason against life.

0 - https://phys.org/news/2021-10-humans-climate.html

1 - https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2023/01/harvard-led-a...

hoseja 1 hours ago [-]
Ok then, remove the greatest polluters. Hint: not the westerners.
eterps 48 minutes ago [-]
5 logical fallacies in 10 words that's a pretty good score!
mandmandam 45 minutes ago [-]
Hang on, what exactly tf do you mean by "remove"?

... Also, yes, the West is responsible for the vast majority of CO2 release. It's not remotely close [0].

* The United States has emitted more CO2 than any other country to date: at around 400 billion tonnes since 1751, it is responsible for 25% of historical emissions [at 4% of world population].

* This is twice more than China – the world’s second-largest national contributor [18% of world population].

* The 28 countries of the European Union (EU-28) – which are grouped here as they typically negotiate and set targets on a collaborative basis – is also a large historical contributor at 22%.

* Many of the large annual emitters today – such as India and Brazil – are not large contributors in a historical context.

* Africa’s regional contribution – relative to its population size – has been very small. This is the result of very low per capita emissions – both historically and currently.

0 - https://ourworldindata.org/contributed-most-global-co2

lynx23 2 hours ago [-]
To declare an arbitrary date when a human being starts to be a human being is so hypocritical, its no longer funny. Actually, I would call that ignorant and evil.
ben_w 2 hours ago [-]
> To declare an arbitrary date when a human being starts to be a human being is so hypocritical

How is that avoidable?

200,000 BC, were we still humans? 2 mya? 20?

Or for individuals, why care about a fertilised egg rather than (as per Monty Python) "every sperm is scared"?

No matter what we pick, it's arbitrary.

lynx23 2 hours ago [-]
We're using abortion as birth control, in at least 90% of the cases, if not more. Because we dont want to tell the people involved that they have responsibilities in life, and if they dont want children, they are supposed to keep their legs closed or use some other form of birth control. The motivation is clear, its a convenience. But morally, its absolutely evil. I used to see it differently, but that was for my own convenience. Because I secretly hoped that if I ever accidentally knock a women up, I could avoid my responsibility if she is willing to abort. 20 years later, I realize its my responsibility, and I cant make a doctor kill a human being just because I would like to have an easy life.
ben_w 1 hours ago [-]
> But morally, its absolutely evil.

At what level of development is a human foetus anatomically distinguishable from a cow foetus?

There's no fact-based reason to draw the line in any particular place. We, humanity, don't know what "personhood" really is beyond the laws we write while guessing and the just-so stories we tell each other to justify those laws.

That's why I'm vegetarian, and why I'd become vegan quickly as soon as someone can get milk from GM bacteria. (And sell it in supermarkets).

It's also one of two reasons why I try to be nice to LLMs: just in case. (The other reason takes it as read they have no experience of existence: by being trained on humans, they'll do better and worse exactly when real humans would do better and worse, and that means worse on holiday season and when getting insulted).

ruthmarx 18 minutes ago [-]
> We, humanity, don't know what "personhood" really is

It's self-awareness, at least in general and as considered by a court when granting it to a chimp.

It's also why I would likely never go vegan, although I do advocate for a drastic overhaul of animal welfare standards.

leptons 39 minutes ago [-]
So you are just fine with denying abortions to women (and young girls) who are raped because they "could not keep their legs closed"? How convenient for you.
jeffhuys 2 hours ago [-]
The abortion thing is very much down to opinion.

Also, why is bacteria life on mars but a clump of cells is not life on earth? ;p

There's no winning this. That's why it's actually smart to let the states decide this - that way Trump has no say in it.

dspillett 1 hours ago [-]
> why is bacteria life on mars but a clump of cells is not life on earth

That is conflating life (the ability is eat, shit, reproduce, and the potential to late become sentient) with actual sentient life, which is not correct.

Also, no one is planning to ban antibiotics because bacteria is considered life so we can't do anything to save the host by killing it.

Olreich 23 minutes ago [-]
We could make it not opinion with ease. Make the test:

“Can the fetus survive without the host body?”

That’s a medical question that will slowly move toward not aborting ever. And it solves the medical issues as well. “This fetus is killing the host” always allows for removal, because we can either keep them alive, or it can’t survive.

Then the folks who want more babies to reach term can focus on improving medical technology instead of getting involved with the mess that is people’s love lives.

John23832 2 hours ago [-]
> Also, why is bacteria life on mars but a clump of cells is not life on earth? ;p

Because the bacteria on Mars would plausibly exist on it's own. On a different planet.

noworriesnate 1 hours ago [-]
A newborn can't exist on its own though. It needs to nurse, has to have someone change its diapers, etc.
John23832 31 minutes ago [-]
>A newborn can't exist on its own though. It needs to nurse, has to have someone change its diapers, etc.

A newborn by literal definition can exist on its own. It has been born.

A newborn can breath, metabolize foods, and does not depend on being connected to another life giving organism.

The more appropriate work you're looking for is "care". You need to care for a newborn for it to survive.

You can provide care specifically for a newborn. You cannot specifically provide care for a fetus, you are providing care for the mother.

I know all of this is falling on deaf ears though.

ruthmarx 2 hours ago [-]
> The abortion thing is very much down to opinion.v

It's a question of ignorance and nothing else.

A zygote is not a life, period.

jvmboi81 4 minutes ago [-]
Besides the fact that a zygote IS a life, the debate isn't really about zygotes.

Most conservatives are willing to compromise on early abortion. Many places around the world agree that abortions in the first trimester should be possible under some circumstances.

We are not willing to agree to abortion free for all where you can just kill a fully formed baby at nine months like you can in Walz's Minnesota.

tzs 2 hours ago [-]
Huh? Since when is a zygote not alive? It has a cell membrane, contains genetic material, has metabolism, can maintain homeostasis, and can grow. That's pretty much the definition of life.

Do you also think neurons, muscle cells, etc are also not alive?

The abortion debate is not about whether or not the thing that gets removed during abortion is life--I doubt you can find any competent biologist who would say it is not--but rather whether that particular cell or group of cells should be treated different than other cells or groups of cells in your body.

E.g., why should abortion be any different from removing tonsils or from circumcision, both of which also involve the removal and death of living cells from the body?

ruthmarx 2 hours ago [-]
> Do you also think neurons, muscle cells, etc are also not alive?

There is a difference between something being 'alive' (although I think the examples you give are dubious), and being a 'life'.

dspillett 1 hours ago [-]
By that logic, we should also consider banning antibiotics. In a world where we consider a cell or a small grouping of cells to be a life (rather than just alive) antibiotics are essentially a tool for genocide.
badpun 53 minutes ago [-]
A zygote is not a life? Is bacteria "a life" for you?

You probably meant "human life".

ruthmarx 24 minutes ago [-]
A zygote and a bacteria have some fundamental differences.

> You probably meant "human life".

No, I said and meant and exactly what I meant to say.

Lanolderen 2 hours ago [-]
I don't care for the abortion topic but that cell comparison is really good.
Dylan16807 2 hours ago [-]
No it's not. "a [human] life" and "life" are completely different things. For example: a tree
Lanolderen 11 minutes ago [-]
True. Although the scale for anything from sperm to baby is probably human<->animal<->bacteria life. I liked it because it definitely shows it's a form of "life" in an accessible way. Where on the scale it falls and whether that life should be protected is an entirely different matter.
ruthmarx 2 hours ago [-]
I remember reading about college professors who shows a 1 day old zygote or whatever and a skin cell which appear pretty indistinguishable from one another.

Does any reasonable person believe that zygote at that stage is truly equivalent to a human life?

Next up no one should be masturbating because each sperm is potentially the next Mozart or Einstein.

catlifeonmars 53 minutes ago [-]
How do you feel about cancer cells?
jeffhuys 2 hours ago [-]
I know, right? It's not mine. I don't really care for it either (except for the "kill at 9 months" thing), but it's interesting to see the two groups argue about it. Both seem to think they're undoubtedly 100% right, as a fact, etc.

Compromises must be made!

ruthmarx 1 hours ago [-]
By that logic ending slavery should have been a 'compromise' as well.
beeboobaa3 1 hours ago [-]
Enjoy your dictator I guess. And enjoy sponsoring Russia in taking over the rest of the world. Fascist.
dzonga 3 hours ago [-]
don't take the voters as stupid, don't impose candidates who can't 1 win a 1 horse race.

pretty much the democratic party has to introspect and stop blaming voters for their failed campaign.

skhunted 2 hours ago [-]
People who vote for a sexual predator, a conman, pathological liar, a felon, a cheat, and a person who obviously has narcissistic personality disorder are stupid. We are living in a tyranny of the stupid. He’s the President we deserve.
smallstepforman 47 minutes ago [-]
It clearly shows how bad the D candidate/policy is, such that people prefered the R candidate with all the flaws you listed. The eye opener should be why people rejected the D candidates.
skhunted 42 minutes ago [-]
It’s a white nationalist backlash. They cared not about the messenger; only the message. It’s also the product of Russian disinformation. Russia has perfected the art of sowing division and faux outrage. We’ve done it to other countries so we deserve it in some sense. We’ll see a rise of toxic masculinity. Women exercising sexual autonomy and gaining power is not something snowflake men can handle.

Such is my belief. I could be entirely wrong.

ekianjo 21 minutes ago [-]
Russia again?? Sure always look for external excuses for one's problem. That's the lesson of the day.
skhunted 15 minutes ago [-]
Russia and China have been waging a cyber war against the U.S. for a long time now. Russian accounts on social media have been effective at sowing dissent, chaos, conspiracy theories, and false information. Tim Pool and others on Russia’s payroll is clear evidence of this.

The lesson of the day is that the U.S. is far more conservative than I thought. Trump is the President we deserve and we deserve what comes next. White rural voters will not be helped by him and I will not shed any tears at their plight.

vetinari 30 minutes ago [-]
Everyone at this level of power is either psychopath or sociopath. So it's not like the voters have any choice in that.
skhunted 21 minutes ago [-]
For the most part. But one can vote for the party that is more supportive of human rights, the environment, etc.
mariusor 2 hours ago [-]
I think the only lesson that Democrats can learn from the past three elections is that women have no chance at presidency. If anything, as an outsider, the campaign Harris led, seemed to reach vastly more people than Biden's.
vundercind 43 minutes ago [-]
I am 100% convinced a Republican woman could win. I was in touch with a lot of deep-red middle-of-the-country Republican voters and candidates for state and federal offices when Palin was the VP pick. Shooting-stuff-in-political-ads sorts. It was practically all they talked about. They liked her a ton better than McCain. I think they’d have gladly voted for her at the top of the ticket (granted, they lost that one, but I think an R woman could absolutely be elected President, probably more easily than a Democratic one).
walterbell 2 hours ago [-]
Bill Ackman, https://x.com/billackman/status/1854019674385547454

> The Democratic Party.. lied to the American people about the cognitive health and fitness of the president. It prevented, threatened, litigated and otherwise eliminated the ability of other [Democratic] candidates for the primary to compete, to get on ballots, and to even participate in a debate.

formerly_proven 2 hours ago [-]
Isn't that sentence literally true for the Republican party as well? So how would it be a differentiating factor?
walterbell 2 hours ago [-]
There was a 2024 Republican Presidential Primary, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Republican_Party_presiden...
stouset 2 hours ago [-]
And it turns out the voters don’t seem to actually care about the cognitive health of the President, nor do they seem to care about being lied to about it.
j-krieger 2 hours ago [-]
The Republican Party didn't hide the President of the United States from the public because he was no longer able to speak publicly.
vkou 1 hours ago [-]
The gibberish that routinely comes out of their candidate barely qualifies as speech.

The reality is, nobody who was wringing their hands about Biden's cognitive abilities, or his son's legal problems actually cared about either issue. If they did, they wouldn't have voted for an mentally declining criminal today.

walterbell 2 hours ago [-]
Joe Rogan's three-hour interview of one candidate got 40M+ views.
dialup_sounds 1 hours ago [-]
Soon: "Terrence Howard nominated to head Department of Education"
baybal2 2 hours ago [-]
[dead]
aydyn 2 hours ago [-]
Also don't blatantly exaggerate and lie in journalism:

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/01/politics/donald-trump-liz-che...

refurb 54 minutes ago [-]
Agree 100%. The "am I wrong? no, it's the voters who are wrong!" is a sure sign the next campaign will flop as well.

A large percentage of Americans aren't interested in what the Democratic Party is selling. The party can either stick to their policies and live with these kinds of showing, or take some time to really think about what the American voter is looking for.

skhunted 47 minutes ago [-]
I don’t believe you are correct. People who vote for a man as debased, self centered, sexually depraved, and criminally inclined as Trump are “wrong”. White men latched onto a horrible person as their savior. If that’s what they want then they deserve what comes. But the people who don’t want that should stick to their principles.

What does it say about Trump that so many of his lawyers and advisors ended up in jail and that so few former cabinet members endorsed him? What does it say about his supporters who cared not that he raped children with his pal Epstein?

Remember when Cruz and Lindsey Graham spoke honestly about Trump just before November 2016? Recall what they said then to what they say now. It’s a cult.

refurb 29 minutes ago [-]
> People who vote for a man as debased, self centered, sexually depraved, and criminally inclined as Trump are “wrong”.

Maybe you're too young to remember Bill Clinton?

He was accused of sexual harassment by a number of women (including a rape). His relationship with Lewinsky (22 years old), is highly exploitive in terms of the power he held over her career. While he might have supported women's right politically, he was certainly exploitive in his personal life.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Clinton_sexual_assault_an...

There were also a number of "questionable business dealings" in his past. Arkansas land deals, Whitewater, almost impeached by Congress for lying.

But I'm sure you'll say "oh, those were just trumped up charges by the Republicans". Ok, then don't blame Trump voters when they think "oh, those were just trumped up charges by the Democrats".

So while people got worked up, he got re-elected handily.

It's funny to me when people entirely overlooked Clinton's life because they liked him as a President and they liked his policies.

You'd think the Democrats would know this.

skhunted 23 minutes ago [-]
The Clintons earned $120 million in 10 years after he was President. Hilary gave 30 minute speeches at Goldman Sachs for hundreds of thousands of dollars. Clearly these were payouts for repeal of Glass-Steagal and other policies. He was a predator and not deserving of the adulation he got. She became senator for New York by having it basically handed to her.

It would benefit humanity if people were taught to be consistent in their views. If they understood that extremism is when the cause is more important than the truth.

Maken 2 hours ago [-]
As a foreigner, the Democratic party just lives of to crying wolf on the Republican party without offering any meaningful difference. And people have gotten tired of it, judging by the fact that Trump is not getting more voters than in 2020, but they are getting considerably less.

Maybe I'm a bit too optimistic, but rather than "people want Trump" I read all this debacle as "people want something different from the Democrats".

theshrike79 2 hours ago [-]
Nah, the problem is that Republicans have openly played a dirty game for almost a decade with ZERO repercussions. They flaunt the laws and conventions of politics and nothing happens.

Democrats still play by the rules for some reason and don't call out the shit done by the other party with simple enough terms.

gmueckl 9 minutes ago [-]
This. One side sticks to the rules and watches silently while the other side slowly undermines them.

At the same time, the Republicans have perfected the twin strategies of sowing distrust in neutral media reorting and playing the victim card consistently to everything, even their own attacks.

Spooky23 55 minutes ago [-]
Hispanic and black voters won’t turn out to vote for a woman, regardless of race.

Next time, run a 6’2” white guy with good hair.

shultays 2 hours ago [-]
Don't kill squirrels just before election
loktarogar 2 hours ago [-]
The vice-president doesn't order squirrel murders.
pabs3 2 hours ago [-]
sethammons 1 hours ago [-]
But it is a shiny example of what most sane people call Too Much Government.

People love to hear Trump saying he will drain the swamp.

surfingdino 2 hours ago [-]
In this election, the Democrats were unable to offer the majority of voters the past they fondly remember or the future they can look forward to. It's that simple.
prawn 2 hours ago [-]
Succinct. Haven't seen a relevant explanation phrased like that.
3 hours ago [-]
Modified3019 2 hours ago [-]
The lesson is that Reddit is not real life, and that calling half the country racist sexist fascist inbred stupid genocidal monsters turns out to not be a winning strategy.

Whether democrats finally learn that lesson is another thing. I am not optimistic on that.

PunchTornado 3 hours ago [-]
the message is: we don't want immigrants, we don't want to help other countries at our short term cost (even if it is a long term gain for us). like it or not, this is what people want.
atoav 3 hours ago [-]
And: we don't care about ethics or looks as long as it serves us.
caskstrength 2 hours ago [-]
> we don't want to help other countries at our short term cost (even if it is a long term gain for us)

It is not even that since what they basically propose is to dial down the war in Eastern Europe but get more involved in the war in Middle East and possibly soon in East Asia. That stance always seemed very confusing to me as a non-US person.

galfarragem 3 hours ago [-]
Rephrased: we, the average tax payers, want prosperity too.
fabioborellini 2 hours ago [-]
But you aren't getting any with this ticket. There is no political force in the US that would question the trickle-down fairytales, and your broken elections system won't allow one to emerge.

So you vote for change, yet the economics policies stay as unequal as always. But in the process you supported a rapist and a criminal who calls execution of journalists, suppression of women, blatant racism and just death and destruction of non-privileged people everywhere.

DiscourseFan 2 hours ago [-]
if the genuinely unprivileged gain some consciousness of their condition because of Trump, there will be changed. You cannot claim it for them.
twixfel 2 hours ago [-]
So, accelerationism?
DiscourseFan 1 hours ago [-]
accelerationism would be launching yourself into the unknown and not committing to a particular political ideology except the continuous development of capitalism. This is simply working with the concrete situation: a Trump presidency, which clearly opens up more opportunities for radical action then a Harris presidency, since Trump will be too busy completely destroying the economy and the FBI, CIA, and NSA, the judiciary and the legal system more broadly, to be even capable of fighting back against resistance or even stopping the conditions for a popular foment. Or, maybe I'm wrong, who knows. But at least now we'll get to know.
rob74 2 hours ago [-]
That's what's the most mind-boggling for me - since when are the Republicans the ones considered most likely to bring prosperity to the masses?
galfarragem 2 hours ago [-]
Since they don't promote politics that keep salaries low, inflate housing prices, increase external spending or drive criminality.
stouset 2 hours ago [-]
You may want to give Republican policies a quick double check.
Symbiote 2 hours ago [-]
Can you give an example of such a policy?

(Not to doubt it, I just don't know as I'm on the other side of the world.)

galfarragem 2 hours ago [-]
Illegal immigration disregard, feeding stupid wars, ignoring small thefts.
LunaSea 1 hours ago [-]
Republicans started the war in Iraq and Afghanistan so that's not true.

And Republicans are against increasing the federal minimum wage so that's also not true.

Disinformation is what won this campaign.

mango7283 11 minutes ago [-]
Notably those wars were not started or escalated by Trump's republican party. While >Dick Cheney< got accepted by Dems now just because he is against Trump...
LunaSea 7 minutes ago [-]
I see that we're already moving goalposts.

Trump has a responsibility in escalating the tension between Israel and Palestine following the move of the American embassy to Jerusalem.

He also escalated bombings in Syria.

His terrible Afghan deal also made it so that there was no time or guarantees to fly Americans and people that helped America to the US while also leaving a lot of American military gear to the Talibans. This also ridiculed the US on the international stage.

hcfman 3 hours ago [-]
Well, so long as prosperity doesn't mean cheaper TVs with Chinese parts in them. I guess they will have to buy American TVs from now on.
dgfitz 2 hours ago [-]
I’ve seen more than a few comments and tips on HN about how to keep one’s TV from phoning China.
ossobuco 31 minutes ago [-]
> we don't want to help other countries at our short term cost (even if it is a long term gain for us)

More like stop trying so hard to bring us closer to a WWIII. The USA's current foreign policy is the main cause of all the turmoil we're seeing in eastern Europe and the Middle East. Anything that can change it should be welcomed by anyone with a desire to live.

zmmmmm 1 hours ago [-]
it's actually really interesting, Trump already modified his rhetoric. In the rallies in the last week and in his acceptance speech he has suddenly talked about how they want immigrants to come in legally - even went out of his way to talk about "geninuses" in the acceptance speech. Pretty clear here that people like Musk have been heavily exerting influence to shape his viewpoint towards favouring immigration that allows high skilled workers in.
mrkeen 2 hours ago [-]
> the message is: we don't want immigrants

It wasn't the case last time with Melania. And it won't be the case this time with Musk.

3 hours ago [-]
impulser_ 3 hours ago [-]
It's not immigrants. It's illegal immigrants. It was very clear from the beginning that this is what will kill the democrats chances. When you have poor people that have lived in this country since birth not be able to get help from the government because the government services in their community are over ran due to the influx of people. Who do you think they are going to vote for? Why do you think the Republicans had an historic election with minority voters?

All they had to do was actually do anything about the tens of millions of immigrants coming over the board, but they ignored it and Trump used it against them.

The Democrat party is ran by a bunch of idiots. Hopefully this is a wake up call for them to get with the real world on issues.

Calling someone Hitler when they clearly aren't is also not going to help people support you especially AFTER he was president before and they experienced a presidency under him lol.

benterix 2 hours ago [-]
This has happened and is happening in Europe, too.

Many people are coming in, some of them don't integrate and cause problems, the center says it's not a problem and the left says let's have more of them.

More people are coming in, problems are getting worse (both real and imaginary), people are getting upset, the right realizes they can use that and they build their whole agenda or that and win the elections.

The number of countries this has happened in increases, so non-right parties need to rethink their strategy if they want to stop losing.

Symbiote 2 hours ago [-]
Europe is able to change political course much more gradually: the EU is 27 countries, and the EU Parliament is elected with proportional voting systems which leads to coalitions and compromise.

A 10% increase in 'right' votes means roughly 10% more influence for the 'right' opinions.

In the USA, a tiny increase in 'right' votes means 100% more influence.

Maken 2 hours ago [-]
Europe is already rethinking it. Have you heard of Sahra Wagenknecht?
j-krieger 2 hours ago [-]
Europe is currently experiencing a hard shift to the right because progressives keep lying and downplaying bad economy policies and illegal immigration. Yet somehow each party has their own scapegoat.
saulrh 2 hours ago [-]
"Tens of millions" "coming in over the border"? Mexico only even has 120m people in the first place. What, you think that half of their population walked into Texas and bought a house in Dallas?
bertjk 2 hours ago [-]
> From 2014 to 2020, migrants from outside Mexico and Central America — known as “extra-continentals” — accounted for 19 percent of immigration court cases.

> In the last four years, those “extra-continentals” have risen to 53 percent of all court cases. They have arrived from countries such as India, China, Colombia and Mauritania.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/interactive/2024/...

saulrh 2 hours ago [-]
Okay. Sure. Mexico only has 120m people. You think that a third of their population walked into Texas and bought a house in Dallas? A quarter? Hell, ten percent?

Fine. I'll bring some of my own statistics. There might be ten million undocumented immigrants living in the United States total. There are fewer than half a million illegal border crossings a year; if the expected lifespan following an illegal border crossing is, I don't know, forty years, then it's obvious that the overwhelming majority of illegal border crossings don't convert to undocumented immigrants. These numbers are easily available on the relevant Wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illegal_immigration_to_the_Uni..., which itself has extensive citations from a wide variety of sources. Saying that there are "tens of millions crossing the border" is clearly and blatantly incorrect.

And, of course, that's not even getting into the real meat of the issue, that's just sarcastically calling out the surface-level lies. No, what I really want to say about illegal immigration is that undocumented immigrants commit fewer crimes than either documented immigrants or outright citizens, that they pay more taxes than they cost in government spending, that they do not affect job access or pay of legal residents, that they prevent offshoring, and that they contribute to GDP via spending and labor. Undocumented immigrants are, as far as I can tell, purely positive contributors to America at every level I look at, for the people working alongside them and going to school with them all the way up to the grandest statistics. If we truly wanted a healthy economy - if we wanted more citizens to have better jobs, if we wanted more money for education and healthcare, if we wanted less crime and less exploitation of labor - we would legalize all of them and invite more in after them.

carom 1 hours ago [-]
250k (recorded border patrol contacts) came across in December 2023 (peak), about 55k this last August. It is usually fewer then a million per year but still a significant number of people. Bad policies in 2023 led to an absolute flood. That is competition for American workers.
wyatt_dolores 27 minutes ago [-]
Is it really competition? Do American workers get paid in cash from employers who don't ask for their Social Security number? Skilled jobs require documentation. Unskilled jobs require documentation. Working undocumented means being paid in cash by an employer who doesn't tell the IRS about you. Are citizens really lining up to work these jobs that undocumented immigrants perform? Food prices will increase again when all of the migrant farm workers are deported.
saulrh 31 minutes ago [-]
Still not "tens of millions", don't motte-and-bailey me.

Also, I thought competition was good and that we needed more of it. That's the usual fiscal-conservative line, right?

I'll further note that there are more job postings open right now than there have been at any time since 2000, that unemployment right now is incredibly low considering the pandemic and 2008, that the unemployment that still exists can be fairly easily traced to the previous trump presidency rather than any other cause, and that multiple detailed studies (refer to previous Wikipedia link) fail to find that illegal immigrants have any effect at all on the jobs or pay of American workers. Having more workers in total increases spending which opens up more jobs, for example, standard jevons paradox stuff. Your conclusions are not supported by any kind of evidence, your models do not describe or provide accurate predictions of reality, and your proposals will not work the way you think or claim they will.

nirav72 19 minutes ago [-]
Most of the illegal migrants coming into the U.S are not from Mexico. They're from Latin American and Asia. Actual migration from Mexico by Mexican citizens has been on the decline in the past 10 years. Possibly due to Mexico's growing economy.
wordofx 2 hours ago [-]
It’s not /only/ Mexicans crossing the border…
bbarnett 2 hours ago [-]
Even I, a Canadian, know that immigrants from all the way down to South America are streaming across the US border.
bagels 3 hours ago [-]
People who ignore the Nazi rhetoric are poisoning the blood of this country.
shakiXBT 2 hours ago [-]
Ignoring the issue and calling everyone nazi or fascist is precisely why the democrats lost today. Hey, at least you have 4 years to learn your lesson
bagels 1 hours ago [-]
Calling out people who invoke Nazi themes doesn't make them more Nazi, nor does giving them a pass make them less so.
roenxi 3 hours ago [-]
> ...are poisoning the blood of this country

Isn't that Nazi rhetoric? "Blood of the country" seems like exactly the sort of thing the Nazis would have been focused on. Are you going for irony?

creato 3 hours ago [-]
justin66 2 hours ago [-]
Congratulations on discovering the punchline.
bagels 3 hours ago [-]
Yes.

They're poisoning the blood of our country,” Trump told the crowd at a rally in New Hampshire.

"All great cultures of the past perished only because the originally creative race died out from blood poisoning," Hitler wrote.

bbarnett 2 hours ago [-]
Devil's advocate.. if Hilter once remarked that broccoli is good for you, would people throw that back at someone saying the same?
2 hours ago [-]
Symbiote 2 hours ago [-]
Hitler was vegetarian back when that was very unusual, and post-war the vegetarian movement in the UK was set back significantly as a result.
mandmandam 2 hours ago [-]
If Hitler then used that line to try and justify murdering millions of brussels sprout eaters, then yes. Otherwise you've missed the point by an almost impressive margin.
j-krieger 2 hours ago [-]
There is nothing inherently "Nazi" about being anti-illegal immigration. 30 years ago the left stood for a lot of anti immigration rhetoric.
bagels 1 hours ago [-]
Sure, but invoking Hitler's language while denigrating people from other countries is pretty Nazi though.
tzs 55 minutes ago [-]
And when told that it sounded like something out of "Mein Kampf" Trump's response was that he had never read "Mein Kampf".
Dalewyn 2 hours ago [-]
>Calling someone Hitler when they clearly aren't is also not going to help people support you especially AFTER he was president before and they experienced a presidency under him lol.

One bigly reason I voted for Trump was because his first term was by far the most peaceful both this country and the world at-large ever was in my lifetime.

For four years we didn't start or join any new wars, we even flat out refused to when the military industrial complex begged to Trump to start one with Iran after they shot down one of our drones. North Korea didn't fire a single missile and China wasn't anywhere as loud with their saber-rattling (I'm Japanese-American, I care deeply about Japanese security). Russia didn't invade Ukraine. Israel and Hamas/Hezbollah/et al. weren't brutally killing each other.

For four god damn years life was actually peaceful, and I want that again.

korm 33 minutes ago [-]
> North Korea didn't fire a single missile

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile...

> Russia didn't invade Ukraine

Russia invaded in 2014 and the conflict stabilized (but didn't stop) in 2015.

In the meantime, the Syrian civil war was raging on.

Similarly, if we ignore all the events in the prelude to WW2, the world was a very peaceful place. According to Hoover, Roosevelt was a threat to world peace, not Hitler.

I'm not implying anything with the analogy, I'm only trying to illustrate that the world was not peaceful between 2016 and 2020, despite the president's efforts.

Perhaps if we had gotten 2 consecutive terms, it might have provided more long term stability.

girvo 32 minutes ago [-]
Er, Russia was already in Ukraine.
dotancohen 1 hours ago [-]
Warring Middle East nations signed more peace treaties under Trump than in any other time in modern history. Israel signed four peace treaties with Arab Nations under Trump.
skhunted 2 hours ago [-]
Obama is the only 2 term President to have gotten a majority of the vote both times since Ronald Reagan. Our system had been broken in a sense (depending on your perspective). We’ve had candidates get a plurality and some a majority of the vote who did not get elected. I think the electoral system needs to be abandoned.

The U.S. is far more right wing than people thought. That Trump got a majority of the vote is a huge win for him. No one can claim his win is because of a backward electoral system and not because he is popular. This is huge. Democrats will be dead for 2 years minimum. Trump will be able to enact whatever legislation he wants to.

He is the President we deserve. The DNC needs to be abolished. Democrats had the opportunity to reform the system. It’s been over 100 years since the number of Representatives has been updated. They could have imposed election reform. They could have gotten rid of archaic Senate rules like filibuster.

arp242 2 hours ago [-]
> Democrats had the opportunity to reform the system. It’s been over 100 years since the number of Representatives has been updated. They could have imposed election reform. They could have gotten rid of archaic Senate rules like filibuster.

When? How? Any change like that in the last few decades would be very hard, and probably before that as well.

I don't disagree with you, I've argued "fixing the system should be #1 priority" for years, but even if the Democratic party wanted to, I don't see how they could have done so.

skhunted 2 hours ago [-]
When Obama was President his first two years Democrats had clear majorities of both houses. But that fool was obsessed with “bipartisanship”. He acted as if the political norms of the 70s had not changed. Also, they haven’t even tried to fight for the things I mentioned.
SpicyLemonZest 2 hours ago [-]
In Obama's first term, the parties were not nearly as ideologically sorted as they were today. There was a Democratic majority of 257 in the House, yes, but 54 of those were members of the explicitly conservative Blue Dog Coalition. They wouldn't have agreed to vote for sweeping partisan reforms.
skhunted 1 hours ago [-]
I think they would have gone for updating the number of a Representatives. But they didn’t even try to do such things. Obama kept trying the make a deal with Republicans and acted like it was the 1970s. In the end he saw what his efforts were worth when Republicans refused to even vote for his Supreme Court nominee.
CodinM 3 hours ago [-]
The message is the same even for non-America - we need to engage with these folks and stop disparaging them. We need to talk to them, we need to understand where they're coming from, we need to help clear the air between "us and them" so that there won't be an "us and them" and so we can _together_ avoid people that tell us what we want to hear.
ookblah 3 hours ago [-]
I bought that line in 2016 and again in 2020. I'm not saying I'm done with trying to understand, but that level of fks to give is very minimal now.

Obviously, I don't think 50% of the population is stupid, but every time I try to "understand" it's becoming increasingly clear it's about his "charisma" and "our team" and less about hard policies.

People out here voting against their own interests or blaming things on ignorance (inflation, etc.).

manquer 3 hours ago [-]
> 50% of the population is stupid

That would be the charitable interpretation, the alternate is that they are knowingly misogynistic, deeply racist and have strong fascist leanings to follow a flawed corrupt politician with cult-like devotion.

conradfr 1 hours ago [-]
But how Obama and Biden got elected then?
manquer 1 hours ago [-]
They were both men, it should be obvious .

Misogynistic was my first qualifier, it is not an coincidence that Trump has won only against women twice, and it is not an oversight that in 250 years America is nowhere close to electing a woman president.

conradfr 48 minutes ago [-]
That's a good point, although it was projected he would win against Biden.
manquer 9 minutes ago [-]
[delayed]
jajko 2 hours ago [-]
Maybe mankind ain't yet so developed that what you list isn't present in general population in large numbers, even majority.

Echo chambers like HN or typical workplace of typical HN user give skewed image how much rational folks out there generally are. Most people that I ever met are trivially susceptible to smart manipulation via emotions, even to the point of shooting their own foot.

refurb 48 minutes ago [-]
"Am I out of touch? No, it's the American voter who is wrong"
Rinzler89 2 hours ago [-]
That's why Kamala lost: they called supporters of the other camp racist and misogynists like you're doing right now instead of discussing and listening to their grievances.

Shitting on your voter base is no way to win sympathy.

astrange 2 hours ago [-]
The marginal voter doesn't have grievances like that unless the country is seriously in trouble (like it was in 2008 and 2020.) They're not paying close enough attention to have them, nor do they have clear ideas about which piece of government is capable of addressing which problems. They have better things to do.

If you talk to the median voter their thinking will be like "something happened three years ago I was mad about" or "my husband wants us to vote this way because he saw it on TV" or "the Democrats want to legalize incest" or "I like voting for whoever I think is going to win" (and yes these are all real.) They especially do not have coherent opinions on economic policy.

Mainly the problem is the US doesn't have a coherent media ecosystem anymore and Republicans were better aligned with newer media, ie Facebook posts and bro-y podcasts like Rogan. So TV ads and "ground game" don't work.

EricDeb 2 hours ago [-]
You have no idea if thats why she lost. Thats why you want to believe she lost but it could be things like inflation, immigration, and not having clear messaging. Also not distinguishing herself from an otherwise unpopular president.
manquer 1 hours ago [-]
We should hear their grievances on our bodily autonomy and healthcare ?

There are aspects where we can compromise, or empathize and learn to live together on such as economy or immigration, basic human decency and healthcare are not it.

Also bit rich that we have to listen to their grievances, they haven't afforded anyone that courtesy, or respected the process of democracy.

If the results were other way round, we would be hearing conspiracy theories about election interference non stop. You can only compromise with people acting in good faith, it is clear that majority of Americans don't want to do that.

mrkeen 2 hours ago [-]
If what you say is true, that only confirms the point.
tomcam 2 hours ago [-]
You are so right. Thank heavens she was defeated.
laborcontract 3 hours ago [-]
I've read people say this over and over. And yet, I don't know of any single substantive position that Kamala has taken. She chose a vibes fight and she lost.
therouwboat 2 hours ago [-]
Do you wait for candidate to come tell you their position? Even in smaller elections, I feel like its my job to find "my candidate".
laborcontract 1 hours ago [-]
look at the comment i’m replying to. if you go to both candidates pages, they’ll have their policy positions laid out. Kamala made none of them a part of her core message. She instead leaned bizarrely into the threat of fascism.
johnny22 1 hours ago [-]
middle class taxes cuts, bringing back roe v wade.. all that..
j-krieger 2 hours ago [-]
The common answer to that was often "just read this 90 page document where she vaguely describes her opinions". This isn't how it works, people.
XenophileJKO 3 hours ago [-]
I think the lesson is you can't win an election with "Well they aren't like the other guy.."
willvarfar 3 hours ago [-]
The last 20 years of the UK is an interesting rollercoaster.

There was a massive international financial crisis that outed the Labour government and brought in a Tory/Lib Dem coalition government based on promises of government austerity.

There was an independence referendum in Scotland where the main campaign point for staying with England was to ensure they stayed in the EU etc.

Then the Tories managed to pin the blame for the failings of the coalition on the minor partner and drew a line under that for the next election.

Then there's brexit, which was really a vote to put an end to bickering inside the Tory party. But the population, narrowly voted to leave the EU! This was very much a protest vote.

Then there's a utter crazy story of quick rotation of prime ministers and scandal and sleeze and very very poorly-received budgets and things.

So then this year Labour are back, and their main strategy was 'at least we're not the Tories'. They are not popular, but they are not the incumbents.

blibble 5 minutes ago [-]
> There was an independence referendum in Scotland where the main campaign point for staying with England was to ensure they stayed in the EU etc.

in reality this was maybe priority #10

the main campaign point was currency

Maken 2 hours ago [-]
The UK is rapidly collapsing and at this point is a husk of a country in which nothing works except the City banking accounts.
twixfel 2 hours ago [-]
The UK is just developed country facing the same problems associated with an aging population as every other developed country (and also many developing countries—sucks for them...). There's absolutely nothing special about the UK and if the UK is a failed state then so too is Germany (where I live) and the rest of Europe, and the only "successful" countries on the planet are the US, Switzerland and a handful of microstates.
TheCoelacanth 3 hours ago [-]
Also can't win with substantive policies or personal integrity either, so what's left?
EricDeb 2 hours ago [-]
She didnt explain why inflation happened. She didnt explain why dems did not crack down on the border until right wingers made an issue out of it. She didnt distance herself from biden. She didnt explain how she would protect abortion rights. I wanted her to win but she didnt have answers or her messaging was not getting through
a1j9o94 2 hours ago [-]
Inflation: "inflation has come down over the last two years, a lot of it has been from the healing of the supply side of the economy.

What is that? Supply chains have improved. The labor force has expanded, partly due to increased immigration, and that's helped to take some of the edge off of the supply-and-demand imbalances that we had when inflation was very high two years ago." https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/examining-how-economic-pla...

Immigration: "After hitting a record high in December 2023, the numbers of migrants crossing the border has plummeted since then. Harris and the administration have credited their tough anti-asylum measures for stemming the flow, although increased enforcement on the Mexican side has also played a key role." https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/elections/2024/where-trum...

Abortion rights: "At one of her first campaign events, she stated that if Congress “passes a law to restore reproductive freedom, as president of the United States I will sign it into law.”" https://www.aclu.org/news/reproductive-freedom/how-kamala-ha...

If you don't like what her positions are that's your prerogative but it's just not true that she did not have answers to these questions.

3 hours ago [-]
djtango 2 hours ago [-]
Yes and the media needs to stop being so obviously biased because it both undermines their role as the arbiters of truth and it undermines the party they allegedly want to win

I liked this podcast from Zachary Elwood:

https://open.spotify.com/episode/5DYBm6we1WcTtktFpqHj7K?si=A...

card_zero 3 hours ago [-]
I was just thinking the exact opposite, maybe the US needs to split into two nations. I was drawing border lines in my mind around central regions and wondering how things would pan out if they seceded. The lack of geographic continuity would be a problem for the coasts, but perhaps they could join Canada.
lenkite 2 hours ago [-]
Won't this be impossible since you have the urban/rural areas of the same state belonging to these two different nations ? At-least impossible without a gargantuan civil war that makes the 1861 war look like a toddler's quarrel.
ncruces 3 hours ago [-]
Try splitting Georgia, where Harris wins a few populous counties with a 30 to 70 pp margin, and Trump leads the lump of smaller counties with a 30 to 70 pp margin.

They reelected the DA that's prosecuting Trump on one of the populous counties, on the same election where the state swung further towards Trump.

DeathArrow 42 minutes ago [-]
That would need some population exchange.
verisimi 3 hours ago [-]
Didn't the south try this, before being forced back into the "union"?
card_zero 2 hours ago [-]
True, that was an awkward episode. Now you've got me reading about the motivations for the civil war. I mean obviously slavery, but why go to war rather than let the Confederacy be a separate nation? Seems the fighting was over the political future of yet-to-be Arizona, New Mexico and Oklahoma (if I've got the right territories there), and whether they would have slavery, once populated.
tstrimple 3 hours ago [-]
Blue areas aren’t states. They are cities. Democratic voting counties account for over 70% of the nations gdp. Conservative counties quite literally cannot support themselves.
squilliam 2 hours ago [-]
> Blue areas aren’t states. They are cities. Democratic voting counties account for over 70% of the nations gdp. Conservative counties quite literally cannot support themselves.

But they can feed themselves.

carry_bit 52 minutes ago [-]
GDP is a flawed measure, and that's especially true when you look at the 70% figure in detail. For details see https://treeofwoe.substack.com/p/gross-domestic-fraud
ruthmarx 2 hours ago [-]
> Conservative counties quite literally cannot support themselves.

And yet they hold democratic counties hostage. Somewhat like parasites.

card_zero 2 hours ago [-]
It works the same way in other countries, such as the UK and Turkey - rural areas are where the traditionalists live.
ruthmarx 2 hours ago [-]
It's much worse in the US though because the gap is so much wider. Even in the UK or Canada or Australia, the right is not opposing climate change or healthcare or anything reasonable to the same extent as in the US.
mrkeen 2 hours ago [-]
The last time the right got voted in in Australia, they revoked the carbon tax that the left had recently set up.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/southern-crossroads/...

cmrdporcupine 2 hours ago [-]
They absolutely are here in Canada. Especially around climate change because Canada is an oil exporter. And they will be emboldened by what just happened in the US.

Alberta outright banned renewables development for 6 months and then slapped a huge set of restrictions on them after that "moratorium" was lifted. A tax on electric car owners added. The conservative parties nationally are on a constant drum beat about the national carbon tax and it's doomed. Weak emissions caps we have are also doomed. Any little things that have been done for the last 10 years will be undone.

At a recent party convention in Alberta, the ruling party passed a climate denial resolution as official party policy.

Amazingly lots of people on this forum trying to sanitize what these people are about.

sixothree 3 hours ago [-]
It might at least be the correct time for blue states to stop subsidizing the existence of red states.
roenxi 3 hours ago [-]
The Joye of Ye Taxes is that you cannot choose to stop paying them just because of a disagreement about how they are spent. Elections need to be won first.
cmrdporcupine 3 hours ago [-]
Cross the border from here in Canada into very "blue" New York and you'll drive through a huge swathe of what is actually "red" Trump country in Western New York.

Outside of the urban areas even "blue" states are red, or "purple."

The reality is that America voted for this guy. It's not nearly as regionally divided as liberals in America want to think.

For me, it means not going there anymore. I just won't cross the border for any reason.

Bost 2 hours ago [-]
We need to understand that such people want to be distracted and entertained.

Give them the show they want, promise them something and they happily make you their king.

They don't ask you to fulfill the promises. They just want to hear them.

That's it.

astrange 2 hours ago [-]
You're losing if you write like this, because this is liberal/left wing writing. If the voters prioritize strength and machismo, you should be insulting them even more. They don't mind, they'll just assume it's about someone else.
watwut 3 hours ago [-]
Meh, it is clear where they care coming from and they talk quite clearly. What we need to do is to stop like naïve Pollyanna's, stop relying on fact checks, stop pretending "both sides are equal" and engage with dirty fight they do.
Tainnor 3 hours ago [-]
What "dirty fight" are you envisioning? Prosecuting Trump in court doesn't appear to work and is disparaged as "lawfare". Biden calling Trump voters trash apparently backfires, but nothing Trump or his campaign says ever backfires.
watwut 3 hours ago [-]
Prosecuting Trump in court is not dirty fight. It is something that should have happen, because being politician should not mean being lawless.

I envision actual politicians and journalists calling trump what he is more rather then less.

rob74 3 hours ago [-]
> politician should not mean being lawless

Well, the US Supreme Court decided more or less exactly that presidents can break the law and get away with it: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czrrv8yg3nvo

And "calling him what he is" has so far failed to sway his supporters, I don't see how it will do it now. OTOH, he (probably?) won't stand for election again, so the point is probably moot...

rightbyte 2 hours ago [-]
"Lock her up!" Wasn't that the chant from some of his supporters?

It is funny how these things turn out and who actually does what in the end and how differently it is treated.

Tainnor 2 hours ago [-]
> Prosecuting Trump in court is not dirty fight. It is something that should have happen

I agree, but I call it "dirty fight" because that's what it's perceived as by the Trump supporters.

stavros 3 hours ago [-]
That's not what the GP means, the popular vote is likely to be for the Democrats, as has happened basically every election. It's only because of the electoral college system that Republicans win the presidency.
Tainnor 3 hours ago [-]
The current results are unfortunately such a blowout that Trump may very well be winning the popular vote. I guess this is what OP was referring to.
stavros 3 hours ago [-]
Ah interesting, I don't know enough about which states do what. Is it not at the point where the states we knew the results of have been tallied, and the swing states are still unknown?
jeffhuys 2 hours ago [-]
I suggest you look for yourself at reuters or something. Whatever I type here, it's out-dated every 10 minutes or something.
Symbiote 2 hours ago [-]
You can easily look at any news site for this.
vote4felon 3 hours ago [-]
I would respectfully suggest you check the results before commenting, but I know reading TFA isn’t all that popular anymore.

Trump is currently leading by over 5,000,000 votes and there does not appear to be momentum to change that lead in the remaining precincts.

EricDeb 2 hours ago [-]
it will shrink with california but yes hes on track to win
stavros 3 hours ago [-]
I don't know how US elections work, for all I know all the Democrat states haven't finished being counted yet.
nkrisc 3 hours ago [-]
Won’t matter. It doesn’t matter if Harris beats Trump by a billion votes in California.
stavros 3 hours ago [-]
It will for the popular vote, the vote we're talking about.
verisimi 3 hours ago [-]
Yes. The US does not have a democracy.
fny 3 hours ago [-]
Inflation. Record illegal immigration. Identity politics. Inflation. An anointed candidate. Perceived censorship. Inflation. Income inequality. Cover ups. Inflation.

I’m not saying Trump will fix any of this. I’m just saying people feel like PC culture has gone over the top while a 20oz Coke has tripled in price. Harris campaigned on “we’re not going back” but a lot of people would trade Trump’s insanity for housing prices of yore.

pavlov 2 hours ago [-]
Inflation was global, and the USA navigated it much better than other Western economies.

But of course that’s far too much nuance for the average voter anywhere.

astrange 2 hours ago [-]
Funny thing is we saved ourselves from 2008-style economic collapse with stimulus, which partially caused the inflation here but also caused it in all the other countries. But nevertheless, all their incumbent parties lost over it.
sethammons 52 minutes ago [-]
When you get punched in the face, the first thought is not who else got punched. Of course ppl will vote based on their own recent face punching. "I didn't get punched in the face when the other guy was president"
crabmusket 32 minutes ago [-]
So what you're saying is that voters are stupid? Punch-drunk unable to think about the consequences of their actions?
sethammons 7 minutes ago [-]
I wouldn't say stupid, I'd say ignorant. A more progressive interpretation: you can't help someone else until you have your own mask on. People are voting based on how they feel their life is compared to 4 years ago and apparently half of america very much recalls life being better then. They don't feel the need to dig any deeper than that; they need to get their own oxygen mask on.
pavlov 48 minutes ago [-]
Which is a bit of a weird argument because people did get punched hard in 2020. Things were mostly very bad during Trump’s last year in office. Jobs were lost, millions died; Trump himself spent days in intensive care in October 2020.

But of course political memories are very short. Trump can get excused for the botched Covid response because it’s ancient history, but Biden can’t get excused for global inflation which followed from the same disaster.

refurb 42 minutes ago [-]
> Inflation was global, and the USA navigated it much better than other Western economies.

This comes across as very out of touch. By "navigated it" you mean brought inflation under control. But it's not like prices came down.

The $1,500 per month grocery bill that was $1,000 in 2019 is still $1,500.

People don't look at the CPI and think "phew, glad the Fed was able to get inflation back to target" they think "I remember when I used to have $1,000 left over each month".

And they remember that every single month.

ruthmarx 2 hours ago [-]
It is astounding how many people don't get that.

Also how many people blame it on Biden while giving Trump credit for Obama's work.

redeux 2 hours ago [-]
Not only will Trump not fix these things but he’s the cause or at least contributor to all the things you just mentioned. You may be right that those are the reasons people voted for Trump, but if they did they’re naive at best.
EricDeb 2 hours ago [-]
Spot on. You nailed it. And dems needed to communicate why those things were not their fault or have answers... instead they tried "vibes"
ddorian43 3 hours ago [-]
Wasn't the inflation done by Trump though? Not allowing Powell to raise rates and threatening to remove him?
tomrod 2 hours ago [-]
Yes. We Americans have the collective memory of a Mayfly and the inability to pay attention to things that drive actual inflation that take a lot of time to resolve, like bad housing policy, logistics logjams, and starving the beastly budget needed for oversight.
jpamata 2 hours ago [-]
Could be, or the Ukraine war, the pandemic, or some other policy

It's nonfalsifiable. People will settle on the simplest observation:

it happened under Biden

EricDeb 2 hours ago [-]
of course. And this was a failure of messaging by dems
fny 3 hours ago [-]
I completely agree that Trump printed a ton of money, but Biden also continued to print a ton of money.

In addition, people tend to associate outcomes with the administration in power even if it’s due to a prior administration. Inflation appeared under Biden, not Trump. Inflation decreasing also does not mean prices decreasing.

komali2 3 hours ago [-]
Every individual is a rational/irrational actor. I don't know the split of time they're irrational vs rational. Maybe 50/50.

Some people are better than other people at convincing other people to do things in a certain way. Might have a little to do with genetics, probably more to do with education and size of platform, which is mostly a function of whose legs you popped out of and a little bit of whatever magic sauce makes you, you.

Most people that are good at convincing other people to do things a certain way are doing so in a way to personally enrich themselves. Sometimes they have a little more empathy, or perhaps intelligence, and know the personal enrichment can't be too flagrant, but regardless they all share that goal.

Unless one becomes too much of an outcast from the other good-convincers (think e.g. Lenin, Mao, CKS, Washington and his friends) and they convince everyone to go kill the followers of the other good-convincers until an equilibrium can be reached where either only one good-convincer is being enriched or at least both are to an acceptable degree.

This dynamic will play out eternally. Part of the mechanism of good-convincerness being sustainable is that you never disturb that equilibrium too much, so in this case to ground it, hence why the democrats tried to pivot right to fight accusations of being leftists (an ideology very much opposed to this idea of the best convincers being extremely personally enriched). In the end, they didn't really lose. Kamala will continue to likely have a powerful political career, and if not she can at least write some books and die phenomally wealthy like Hillary will. Democrats can switch from having much federal power to being an opposition party. Nothing actually changes, the message simply switches from "give us votes and money to enshrine whatever it is you care about" to "give us votes and money to fight fascism rah rah." Both messages are of course a lie, the real message is "give us votes and money in a way that allows us to continue to collect votes and money."

The message is that in the global zeitgeist, the natural human tendency among everyone, good convincer and not, for liberation, personal agency, and fulfilment, is obviously not being met when no matter where they turn there's someone telling them that if they want these things they have to all support a given good convincer. In the early Soviet Union, communist leaders too advantage of the opposite zeitgeist to achieve the same thing. Right now, the reactionaries have acquired a greater share of the zeitgeist, maybe because their messaging coincides well with several refugee crises and the inevitable climate refugee crisis.

In my personal opinion these tendencies can't be rewarded in this form of top down hierarchy where it's good-convincers pitting their supporters against each other. Imo we can overcome the nurture and saecular aspects of what makes someone a good convincer (education, self determination, material conditions provided for) to make everyone more level in their ability to convince others to do things. Early societies had this more "flat" organization, where the best convincers lived basically on raw rhetorical ability (look up some old Cherokee transcriptions for their interactions with missionaries, they were genuinely hilarious and viciously good at humiliating rhetorical opponents), and even that could only go so far.

During the Spanish civil war I believe the anarchists did a phenomenal job educating and "leveling the playing field" among an astounding number of people - off memory as I'm on my phone, something like 70% of their economy had been syndicalized. Somehow they convinced a shitload of the population to think deeply about their engagement in society and politics and become active, daily, if not hourly, participants in that process.

This fascinates me and I want to try this again. It of course involves sucking it up and talking to Trump supporters which I find very difficult because they say some very silly things, but regardless, if an alternative power structure isn't injected into the mix, the game of good-convincers playing hackey sack with the zeitgeist to maintain power will never end.

bloomingkales 2 hours ago [-]
This fascinates me and I want to try this again. It of course involves sucking it up and talking to Trump supporters

That’s a good attitude, because nothing is truly solved with a Trump presidency. His victory was always just an expression of the undercurrent. The electorate has just voiced it, for a second time, but that’s all.

selimthegrim 3 hours ago [-]
> In the early Soviet Union, communist leaders too advantage of the opposite zeitgeist to achieve the same thing.

What was the opposite zeitgeist?

laborcontract 3 hours ago [-]
I agree that it's a clear message. The messaging the last time Trump won the election was that the electoral college was broken, Trump lost the popular vote, Americans deserve better.

8 years later, after all of this political baggage, prosecution, and media repudiation the Democrats managed to lose in resounding manner – not just the electoral college, but the senate, house, and popular vote.

This is after what is arguably a great Biden presidency, economy-wise. The Democrats have centered their entire identity for the last 8 years about being anti-Trump. There are no bright spots in the results for them, no messaging that they can hang their hat on, and build on going forward. From a base building perspective, this is brutal. The next election is square one for them.

stuaxo 3 hours ago [-]
The Democrats never seem to do much about the system when in power.
astrange 2 hours ago [-]
If they'd done something they would've lost more. Voters, who on average are near retirement age, hate it when you do anything because they think it'll affect their retirement.

In this case they were blocked by Manchin/Sinema from anything like filibuster reform, but they did get some big important economic reforms in.

tomrod 2 hours ago [-]
You nailed my biggest complaint.
tstrimple 2 hours ago [-]
My new unhealthy conspiracy theory is democrats like being perpetually in the minority where they can talk a good game but don’t actually have to follow through on anything. That’s why they always tack right and try to compromise with people who call them enemies and groomers and demons. “We’ll welcome them into our cabinet” never sat well with me in the era of Trump.
astrange 2 hours ago [-]
Polls show voters think Harris/Walz were too liberal, not the other way round. They mostly haven't gone right either; Biden campaigned as a moderate and ran as the most progressive administration in my life.

(Which was good! But voters hated it because they don't like change and don't like inflation.)

bezier-curve 2 hours ago [-]
To me it seems like Democrats just failed to listen to their constituents, and being one who wanted Bernie Sanders to have some chance at running in 2016 and 2020, I think this is the reckoning of that more than anything. The Democrats have ignored their own base and this is what happens when they pander to signals from everywhere else.
oldpersonintx 3 hours ago [-]
the message is America completely rejected the "establishment"
watwut 3 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
matt-attack 2 hours ago [-]
Wow you couldn’t misinterpret this any more.
aydyn 2 hours ago [-]
GP is indistinguishable from a bot. Treat him that way.
xenospn 3 hours ago [-]
My thinking exactly. Just steamroll over everyone with disregard.
watwut 3 hours ago [-]
It works well for GOP. It is literally key to their electoral success.
xenospn 2 hours ago [-]
Also, seems like there's general disregard for law and order when the person doing the disregard is "one of us". Maybe there's a lesson there.
dustedcodes 3 hours ago [-]
It was never a close race to anyone who paid attention, especially when looking at minority voters as well.

Let’s be clear Donald Trump has the support of more than half of America, across men, women, latinos, asians, whites and blacks.

I’m not going to mince my words because we are frankly done with this dishonest nonsense, so I’ll be as frank as possible:

The vast majority of people don’t want to turn their sons into daughters.

They don’t want their daughters to compete against men in sports.

They don’t want male perverts share showers and locker rooms with their kids.

They don’t want the relentless race baiting.

They don’t want to get constantly shut down and cancelled when they want to openly debate difficult issues like the response to a pandemic.

They don’t want to be forced to take injection. The vast majority want to get vaccinated but out of free will and not through threats.

They want free speech and being able to question why millions of illegal immigrants are being allowed to come into their country without being labelled a racist, because there is nothing racist about having a secure border.

They want to live in a high trust society.

They want to live in happy marriages and have children and not being told by woke politicians that their wives should lie to their husbands and that schools can decide to transition their children without a parent’s consent or knowledge.

They don’t want to get taxed on unrealised capital gain which is as unamerican as it gets.

They want peace, harmony and a cohesive society and people who seek to divide should simply leave.

That’s the truth and I will get downvoted massively for saying it here but everyone knows it’s true. Only Hollywood wanted to continue this nonsense because they all castrated their children. Everyone else wants their children to live happily in a prosperous society.

Gasp0de 2 hours ago [-]
I don't understand everything you're saying, probably because I am not involved in day to day US political discussion, but a few of your points seem wildly exaggerated or misunderstood.

No one is forcing anyone to turn any sons into daughters, are they? What you're really saying is that you don't want anyone to be allowed to change their gender. That's a quite prohibitive stance for a country that puts so much emphasis on freedom.

What's this "male perverts sharing locker room" stuff about? Who's campaigning for letting random adults into kids locker rooms?

Who's being forced to take an injection?

j-krieger 2 hours ago [-]
They are talking idpol in general.
j-krieger 2 hours ago [-]
Exactly. The race rhetoric is the most important point.
ThePowerOfFuet 1 hours ago [-]
>The vast majority of people don’t want to turn their sons into daughters.

Uh... what? Parents aren't doing that.

>They don’t want male perverts share showers and locker rooms with their kids.

Ah, now I see that you were actually trolling.

sethammons 58 minutes ago [-]
They are not. Strive to understand while not vilifying their position. Your inability to do so is why you may be confused by half the country
acdha 23 minutes ago [-]
This is harsh: it’s effectively trolling, but it’s not by the original poster but a calculated political campaign designed to smear Democrats. Saying anyone wants “male perverts [to] share showers and locker rooms with their kids” is untrue, but it’s really effective at getting people to pick a side because it sounds terrible and even though this is not a pressing problem in the real world (if we’re talking child size abuse, the risk is family members and trusted adults) it’s perfect for getting strong emotional reactions, as we can see from how heavily used it is.

Governor Youngkin got elected in Virginia riding on a wave of anti-trans sentiment based off of a single reported assault where the accused wasn’t even trans, didn’t identify as such, wasn’t allowed to be in the bathroom where the assault occurred, etc. but that was such a volatile claim that it was all over the news for the end of the campaign even though it was a single assault out of thousands.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/05/magazine/loudoun-county-b...

I think it’s possible to recognize that a position is not factual and based on emotional impact but we need a better term than trolling to describe it.

sethammons 45 seconds ago [-]
agreed; I'm not saying the person is _right_. If the left wanted to get dirty, they should have tossed up all the pedo priest data. At the end of the day, it was absolutely a messaging problem. People very literally believe that their kids could be targeted and become trans. Education and more propaganda are the only options.
3 hours ago [-]
5 hours ago [-]
dheera 2 hours ago [-]
The popular vote is not a good indicator. I live in a deep blue state, the fact that my vote doesn't actually influence the electoral college reduces the incentive to go vote, drastically.
lpa22 2 hours ago [-]
That goes both ways. In fact, there might be more Red voters who think their vote is futile and don’t do out to vote.
relaxing 8 minutes ago [-]
There isn’t. The polling and results are all out there.
Cthulhu_ 2 hours ago [-]
Yeah, that the US democratic system is broken; each state having an equal say is not fair given the populations are far from equal.
defrost 2 hours ago [-]
I'm an outsider; is the US a democratic union of 50 states (plus districts and territories) or is it a democratic union of ~ 335 million individuals?

Is the EU vote in Brussels passed by countries or by individual citizens?

As I recall the current electoral system was set up to weight the votes of states that were members of the union .. if the US has moved to a single unified country of individuals then it might be time to reset the rules (the US founders would be in favour if I read their comments on evolving systems correctly).

Perhaps 'dated' is a better description than 'broken'.

messe 55 minutes ago [-]
That's a silly comparison when even the EU is a mix of by-country/by-population (council/parliament—and even the parliament is weighted toward giving smaller countries more representation)
iainmerrick 1 hours ago [-]
You're confusing the electoral college with the Senate. In the electoral college, the states are weighted by population. It's a flawed system, but it's not "each state having an equal say".
wrasee 28 minutes ago [-]
But even then the weighting is _very_ uneven. The number of votes per elector can vary wildly by state, by as much as some small whole multiple. So the “weight” of one vote in one state can be say, four times that of another state.

It’s amazing to me that this can stand and efforts to change never seem to get very far.

csomar 1 hours ago [-]
He is taking the popular vote too. Have other ideas to bash his presidency?
LunaSea 58 minutes ago [-]
He increased the deficit while supposedly raining in on spending?
mirthflat83 2 hours ago [-]
You do know that USA stands for United States of America, right?
throwaway345724 12 minutes ago [-]
[dead]
panja 3 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
3 hours ago [-]
ainiriand 3 hours ago [-]
I would like to skip that rethoric here on HN whenever possible. You cannot possibly reduce 70M voters to that.

I would like to explore the whys and hows of this apparent step backwards in so many things and why Trump was voted like he was and this reductionist view helps no one.

Tainnor 3 hours ago [-]
You're right to point out that this kind of rhetoric isn't really in the spirit of HN.

On the other hand, it's a fallacy to assume that there must be merit to an argument just because it's championed by a majority.

I'm aware that it's politically suicidal to say that "most people are stupid", but I'm not a politician (I'm not even American) and I feel like "stupidity" should not a priori be ruled out as an explanation.

karencarits 3 hours ago [-]
You would have to provide a better and more precise definition of "stupid" then, the word has a tendency to become circular
bogle 3 hours ago [-]
Perhaps you could use the word "idiot" and refer to them as "idiots". The term has been used in a medico-legal context in the past to define a person's mental age.

That there is a divide between the two parties and the average intellectual ability of their supporters is a well-known fact. I'd contest that this is less of an issue than their racism.

econ40432 3 hours ago [-]
Engineering students are actually more conservative than a group like communications majors. Are communications majors smarter?
bogle 2 hours ago [-]
I was moving the point away from a measure of smartness to one of racism. I do hope you haven't just damned all the other engineers on HN!
DeathArrow 2 hours ago [-]
So you really think more than half of the Americans are mentally impaired? The probability of being mentally impaired is higher for a random poster like you than for half of American people.
bogle 2 hours ago [-]
Your understanding of statistics is deplorable. Also, your reading ability. I specifically said it's racism, rather than the (verifiable) lack of intelligence.
Tainnor 3 hours ago [-]
True, "stupid" is a very imprecise term. But my main point was merely that epistemically, there is no validity to something just because a majority is behind it.
stavros 3 hours ago [-]
Well, technically, stupidity is relative. If you're defining it as "below 50%", then that's half the people. "Below 90%", even more, etc, so the statement in itself doesn't really make sense.

If you're in the 90th IQ percentile, sure, most people are stupid to you.

RickarySanchez 3 hours ago [-]
You would be a fool to think that an entire population is stupid. Perhaps a proportion sure but the deciding vote comes from a large proportion of the population that are by no means stupid. Democracy in theory is a form of distributed computation and just because you don't agree with the end result does not make every else stupid
tomrod 2 hours ago [-]
So you are saying people who think other people are stupid are, in fact, the stupid ones. Fascinating.
lucianbr 3 hours ago [-]
What would you say if most of a population think that most of the population is stupid, themselves excluded?

Which seems to actually be the case quite often.

DeathArrow 3 hours ago [-]
>I feel like "stupidity" should not a priori be ruled out as an explanation.

If that is the case, stupidity shouldn't be ruled out for both sides.

Tainnor 2 hours ago [-]
That is correct.
ainiriand 3 hours ago [-]
I don’t believe we can judge what happened just by looking at the majority opinion and give it merit, but I also can’t dismiss it as simply "stupidity."

Messages from certain leaders can resonate deeply with people. If a message is well-received by so many, it could mean the opposing side didn’t present a strong enough argument—basic politics.

In my persoanl view, the discourse needed to challenge figures like Trump is limited by U.S. politics, which is heavily influenced by corporate funding. This influence likely explains why the Democratic Party often seems unwilling to take bold stances.

Policies like stronger unions, better social protections, higher taxes for the wealthy, and a meaningful minimum wage increase are hard to promise if campaigns depend on corporate backing.

dijit 3 hours ago [-]
People feeling disenfranchised and reaching for populists is a common issue throughout time.

I believe social media has widened the most extreme opinions and forced polarisation on most people, I can feel it with the UK too, where a very clearly corrupt government, with a revolving door of leadership: one losing the country enough money in 14 days to pay for the NHS for a decade… are being talked about favourably over a meek, awkward, slightly right of centre leader who happens to be wearing a red badge instead of a blue one.

Discourse is so swollen with bitter defence and snide attacks with soundbites of “sides”, I really do believe that its the fault of platforms showing the most divisive voices most often.

The thing that pushes me towards right for example, is seeing people dehumanising men for being men (not behaviours, just clear misandry against the gender) on social media so openly- and to much fanfare. I would otherwise be considered extremely left wing by UK standards.

Tainnor 3 hours ago [-]
> people dehumanising men for being men

Is this something you do actually experience in real life though?

Because I'm with you that social media is part of the problem. When I was using Twitter, many years ago, I also saw a lot of these super-woke people that I thought were just crazy.

But in real life, I don't see these caricatures so often (where they do exist, they tend to stick together in close-knit organisations and so are easy to avoid). Most women, gay and trans people, minorities etc. that I met just want to have some basic rights and don't care about culture wars about language use etc.

dijit 3 hours ago [-]
no, exactly, you can feel the effect on some peoples beliefs and behaviours but they can always be reasoned with in reality. You are completely correct that these behaviours are so much more extreme online with the #KillAllMen Movements, 4B[0] and choose the bear. I still hear whispers of these beliefs, but it’s not nearly as strongly held or widely seen as it is on social media.

More impressionable people might hide stronger beliefs, like my mum, who is a reformer in the UK and parrots all their talking points and soundbites, but only down the pub with her like minded friends, or with me. Never to a labour supporter or in a public forum- so they almost never get challenged; and they become so deep rooted.

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/4B_movement

taylorius 3 hours ago [-]
"this apparent step backwards"

When optimising globally, sometimes a backward step is required to escape a local minima. It is possible that progressive politics has made a misstep, and that correcting that is the right thing to do.

bogle 3 hours ago [-]
I think we can all see that correcting to oligarchy/authoritarianism/fascism never works out well for any nation. I don't see your suggestion of a correction working out here either.
imoverclocked 3 hours ago [-]
I really wish your comment to be relevant.

There is probably no single thing that you could ascribe to 70M voters except that they vote. However, there are plenty of themes that are touted amongst supporters, many (all?) of which are easily shown to be false. Also, his biggest benefactors are people with a lot of money or influence... which are definitely not most of those 70M voters.

The man was convicted by a jury, impeached, and is known to have raped people. He is a known national security risk. ... the "critiques" are endless.

IMHO, to say that there is a useful message to be sent by electing him is naive at best. The fact that nobody can seem to discern that message despite truly trying is also telling.

Is the message, "people just want to watch the world burn?" Is it something else? As far as I can tell, nobody actually knows.

Meanwhile, he has declared victory before the votes are actually finalized. Is the probability high? Yes. Does it undermine the process? Also, yes.

Are there factors such as, "Kamala is a black female" at play? Almost definitely. Does Trump pander to groups that are covertly/overtly racist? Yes. Do all of his supporters understand/admit that? No.

TrackerFF 3 hours ago [-]
Voters complain that the economy is bad.

Trump promises to truly crater it, Musk stands behind him and promises said austerity.

Voters still vote for Trump on the basis of economy.

Are there any other ways to interpret it? Than that your average voter simply doesn't know the basics of econ?

econ40432 3 hours ago [-]
What are the "basics of econ" in your view?
komali2 3 hours ago [-]
Tariffs increase prices, for example.
econ40432 3 hours ago [-]
I agree that tariffs aren't good econ policy. What are your views on grocery "price gouging"? Rent controls?
bagels 3 hours ago [-]
Tariffs are worse, but, all three aren't great.
komali2 3 hours ago [-]
Depends on implementation but in general we already don't have a free market, and if we did the American economy would collapse with the destruction of the entire farming sector and possibly the oil and gas sector, so I don't dismiss price controls on groceries or rent controls out of hand.

Singapore has nationalized housing and is extraordinarily prosperous. Perhaps rent control isn't a good measure and we should simply do that instead.

agent86 3 hours ago [-]
In interviews with people who are primarily voting on the economy a common response is that they feel things were economically better for them under Trump than they were under Biden. They want to go back to that, and they believe Trump can do it again.
unethical_ban 3 hours ago [-]
Structure:

We have a first pass the post voting system which only allows for two parties.

We have this thing called the electoral college that further obfuscates the popular will.

Both of these flawed systems disillusion millions of people every election cycle. People in non-swing states who have a minority opinion feel they have no voice, and often do not vote.

People who have serious issue with the two major parties have no viable method to express their political will.

---

Media:

We have a highly polarized media environment where a large number of people only get their facts from highly biased sources. This can happen on "both sides" but it's particularly evident with conservative media such as Fox News. In this outlet, millions of people see an alternate reality to the one we live in. They don't see Trump's age-addled brain or his most offensive rhetoric.

---

Policy:

Many people seem to think that the Democratic party is responsible for the inflation of the past 4 years. Many people seem to think that Trump stands for lower taxes for the working class, in ways that won't hurt them.

If we take Trump literally, he wants to deport many millions of people who live and work in this country peacefully, but do not have proper documentation. He wants to give Ukraine to Russia. I believe he is at best ambivalent to a national abortion ban. He doesn't show any support for combating climate change.

I'm probably leaving some points out, it's late.

vdqtp3 3 hours ago [-]
You mention that the EC obfuscates the popular will, but you ignore that it's a balance that gives a voice to many who would otherwise have none.

Would you find a popular vote system that entirely ignores the votes of dozens of states in favor of just a few somehow carrying less obfuscation of the will of the people?

3 hours ago [-]
baxuz 3 hours ago [-]
Ok, let's take the nuanced route. Not all are stupid.

They're just more uneducated than ever, more conservative than ever, and idolizing dehumanization and evil totalitarians more than ever.

The root of everything is social insecurity and bad education, caused by the USA actually not being a country for its people but for corporations and billionaires.

I'm sorry but if you want a pathological liar, criminal and an overall horrible human being as a president of the (probably) most powerful and influential country in the world, you're just scum. Keep the downvotes coming.

bogle 3 hours ago [-]
The inequality in a nation must have a huge effect on the nature of the people in that nation. That a treatise on inequality has won a Nobel prizes for economics would tend to support your thesis [1]. That another Nobel prize winner has also written on inequality should clinch it [2].

Fix inequality.

[1] https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2015/dea... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Stiglitz

squigz 3 hours ago [-]
> I'm sorry but if you want a pathological liar, criminal and an overall horrible human being as a president of the (probably) most powerful and influential country in the world, you're just scum. Keep the downvotes coming.

This is precisely what I'm talking about. You really think this comment is going to do anything but push even more people to vote for the right? Because why would they side with your camp when you just called them scum, because you don't understand their intentions for voting for him/the party?

Which is extra unfortunate, because your comment up until that part was pretty good.

baxuz 2 hours ago [-]
I understand their intentions. I understand that these votes come out of a place of fear. They are unhappy and a lying demagogue is pointing them to a solution and fuels them with hate. [1]

I also understand that they willfully choose to ignore massive red flags and are a bunch of hypocrites. These people have no shame and need to be shamed. It is the key emotion that leads to change and motivates to action.

Sadly, due to electoral interference by totalitarian regimes, media outlets, Musk, and the internet in general, these people who would otherwise be ostracized by the community due to their antisocial behaviours have been normalized.

Once you're set up like that, it's extremely difficult to get out of. I am afraid that the US has check-mated itself for at least an entire generation. The only thing that can drive a change is hope and basic human decency, ethics and morality.

Which brings us back to people wilfully being the exact opposites of those values. We've had lying oppressive demagogues probably since the dawn of humanity. Most certainly in the last century.

However, despite being afraid and frustrated, many people sided against such leaders. And this is why I consider not doing so a personal moral failing.

[1] https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2024/11/trump-voters-li...

squigz 1 hours ago [-]
> These people have no shame and need to be shamed. It is the key emotion that leads to change and motivates to action.

> these people who would otherwise be ostracized by the community due to their antisocial behaviours have been normalized.

The Internet (or global communication in general) does indeed mean shame won't work, because people can just ignore you and go find people who support them - whether that's Trump, Musk, or some randoms on the Internet is irrelevant.

So let's double down on the shame thing, which has worked out so well lately?

> The only thing that can drive a change is hope and basic human decency, ethics and morality.

I think the crux of many social issues is that people have different ideas about what 'basic human decency, ethics and morality' even mean.

baxuz 28 minutes ago [-]
> I think the crux of many social issues is that people have different ideas about what 'basic human decency, ethics and morality' even mean.

Everybody knows that lying, stealing, swindling, rape, misogyny, selfishness, narcissism, taking pride in ignorance and probably a dozen more wouldn't make that list. Everybody.

People vote for who they identify with as this gives legitimacy and backing to their own views and behaviours.

squigz 8 minutes ago [-]
Morality is not universally as simple as 'stealing is bad' - a basic lesson in ethics, really. Is it bad to steal food for your starving family? If your answer is a simple 'yes', then I applaud you your certainty in life. I wish I had that. But for me, and many others, things aren't quite that simple.

In any case, I wasn't really referring to things like those on your list (one of those things is really not like the others, by the way. Seems very bad faith to me) but more things like trans issues, immigration, welfare, etc.

mort96 3 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
squigz 3 hours ago [-]
Just so you know, this is exactly the sort of divisive rhetoric - from all sides of the political spectrum - that has led America down this path, and will continue to do so.

You can chalk it up to "stupidity", which is rather silly on its face, or you can acknowledge that this result is the symptom of something far deeper, and try to explore what those issues are, and try to find solutions.

One's easier though, I imagine.

card_zero 3 hours ago [-]
What is it a result of? I'm guessing: voters blamed post-covid global economic downturn on Biden because he was around at the time.

Erosion of democracy didn't seem to trouble the minds of the land of the free very much. I'm not too worried by Trump's second term, but I'm anxious about his third and fourth. One other issue is a fear of turning into Mexico, which people seem to think might happen by letting Mexicans in, but may yet be accomplished in a home-grown manner through insurrections and dismantling institutions.

plasticeagle 3 hours ago [-]
It's well documented that Americans are, on average, quite undereducated. And it's also quite well documented that most of the people that vote for Trump are poorly educated.

So, not stupidity, no. But a lack of education can look similar.

https://www.uneducatedamerica.com/useful-links

southernplaces7 3 hours ago [-]
I'd argue that anyone blandly categorizing dozens of millions of people who vote for a candidate (including many from communities of color and among immigrant demographics) as just uneducated ignorants is themselves overwhelmingly ignorant.

You can be against Trump for many good reasons, but a good look at why he won is about much more than just deriding his supporters as ignorant.

ncr100 3 hours ago [-]
Racism, and misogyny appear to be the deeper issues vs the more general and generous stupidity.
notadoomer236 3 hours ago [-]
Millions of desperate people from very different cultures came into the country overwhelming welfare services and small communities, getting paid under the table by greedy businesses undercutting Americans and subverting labor laws. The current party in power allowed this influx to reach record levels, and didn’t do a thing about it. Any path to amnesty for these people down the road will change our political landscape forever, and Americans never voted for this policy.
roenxi 2 hours ago [-]
> ... and Americans never voted for this policy.

Seems a bit of an overclaim. Strategic questions of how to handle the border was a defining issue in the 2016, 2020 and 2024 elections. Americans are continuously voting on border policy, it is one of the major elements of their national conversation. What the Biden administration did was a bit extreme but ballpark what was on the tin when he was voted in.

roenxi 3 hours ago [-]
Has there been a root cause analysis on why the racists and misogynists only strike sometimes? They appeared to be powerless when the Democrats nominate charismatic candidates like Obama. My read from a distance is the man was propelled somewhat by his racial background.

I put it - as an outside chance - that it is possible that the policies and outcomes of said policies have a bearing on the voting decisions people make.

fny 3 hours ago [-]
How do you justify the gains he made with Hispanic and black voters?
cpursley 3 hours ago [-]
Please explain the large increase in black and other non white votes Trump got this time around, then. Or were those just the stupid ones?
watwut 3 hours ago [-]
The problem is that one side engaging in divisive rhetorics while the other trying to take the high ground is why Trump is winning.

Trump is engaging in hate and divisive politics, he rules GOP. Democrats are constantly trying to play the high ground, they are loosing.

squigz 3 hours ago [-]
You've missed the point, which is that painting one side as angelic and the other as evil is exactly what has led to this point.
watwut 3 hours ago [-]
I am painting one side as kinda evil and other one perfectly within norms of non-evil. Not angelic, but clearly and significantly less anti-democratic and destruction seeking.

I think that the politics got to this point because the "sides" are graded on the curve. No matter how bad one side gets, you are supposed to project best possible intentions on them, worst possible intentions on their liberal opposition just so someone can say "they are the same". Like common. The long term plan to destroy Roe vs Wade for real and worked. The rights of gays and trans are going down the drain. There is literal plan to make anticonception harder to get. Trump was literally talking about this being last election and literally tried the coup after last election.

Can we please, stop with the nonsense? I remember center mocking feminists when they said abortion rights are at dangers. Guess what, they were right.

This is not about needing to listen in a more approving way. It is about needing to listen and oppose more strongly, because what they say about themselves is that they find "evil" to be something to aspire to.

Dig1t 3 hours ago [-]
How is accusing him of being a Nazi, an extremist, a dictator, etc "taking the high ground"? He was already president once and was provably NOT Hitler..
TheCoelacanth 3 hours ago [-]
His own running mate called him America's Hitler.
watwut 3 hours ago [-]
Firstly, Democratic establishment goes out of their way to not say these. Which is their mistake, GOP has no equivalent problem to accuse democrats of evil.

Second, he literally said he aspires to be a dictator, talks approvingly about dictators, and he does engage in literal extremist rhetoric on his rallies. You can be Nazi, an extremist, a dictator while not being literally Hitler in every single detail.

He likes when people say that about him. Not saying those is just lying, insisting that others dont say those is insisting on everyone lying.

readthenotes1 3 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
kazinator 3 hours ago [-]
In their defense, they faced a tough choice: convicted sex offender or empty suit.
pferde 2 hours ago [-]
All other things aside, don't you think choosing a convicted sex offender over an empty suit is quite damning on its own? Are his values the values USA wants to promote both internally and externally? Apparently so. :(
abhinavk 3 hours ago [-]
It's sad if that's tough.
kazinator 3 hours ago [-]
Indeed; I don't mean in their complete defense.
the5avage 2 hours ago [-]
Is there some analysis why the polls didn't correctly predict the result?

A failure in representative polls like this should be avoided with statistical methods.

eigenspace 2 hours ago [-]
You didn't listen to what the pollsters were saying.

What they said was that they could not predict the outcome, and were giving basically 50/50 odds of either candidate winning, which is essentially just another way of saying "I have no idea".

Just because their odds were 50/50 though, does not mean the outcome would be close. The pollsters were all warning that the swing states would likely be strongly correlated, so if a candidate performed strongly in one swing state, they'd probably perform strongly in all of them.

mike_hearn 1 hours ago [-]
the5avage is asking why the polls 'failed', that is, could not predict the result despite the clarity of the outcome. Being unable to compute an answer is the same thing as failing for pollsters.
joelthelion 1 hours ago [-]
I disagree. There's a big difference between saying "kamala will win, it's certain", and "we don't know".
mike_hearn 1 hours ago [-]
That's true, lacking confidence is less of a failure than confidently getting it wrong. But they weren't actually saying "we don't know". They were predicting a split election. Do pollsters even have a way to report that they lack enough confidence to give a prediction? I rarely see CIs on reported poll results so presumably they'd have to just refuse to publish any prediction at all, which clearly, they weren't doing.

Nate Silver has recently written about the clear problems in polling, and in particular the herd-like way they were reporting implausible numbers:

https://www.natesilver.net/p/theres-more-herding-in-swing-st...

theurerjohn3 2 minutes ago [-]
I dont belive that claim was actually true?

the most likely result predicted by 538 was 312 for trump [0]

the issue with the model was the 2nd most likely result was 319 for harris.

they thought the odds of a recount being decisive was around 10%.

That hardly seems evidence of "predicting a split election". which prediction are you thinking of?

[0] https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

iainmerrick 55 minutes ago [-]
What sources are you thinking of? Everywhere I looked, I saw "the polls are very close, the result probably won't be so close but we don't know which way it will go". I don't recall seeing anyone outright predicting a very tight result (beyond "here's what happens if there's a tie" articles -- background info rather than prediction).
KeplerBoy 54 minutes ago [-]
That's fundamental to this election mode. Most swing states were within the predicted range, they just happen to all be correlated (which is expected) and swung in the same direction having a huge effect on the electoral college.
oersted 10 minutes ago [-]
Indeed, 538’s model showed ~50 out of 100 wins for either side, when running simulations. But that doesn’t mean that they were predicting a 50/50 split, a significant number of simulation results showed a large vote margin for one side, it was just equally likely which side it would be.

Although I don’t actually think it was equally likely like that, we are missing something to make all this analysis actually informative rather than a “all I know is that I don’t know anything”. We had mountains of evidence indicating that it was totally unclear, so frustrating. Perhaps that’s how the probabilities actually were, but somehow guts pointed to Trump much more regardless of personal bias, and in hindsight it feels rather obvious. Confirmation bias I guess, I’d like to rather trust all the expert analysis.

mvdtnz 36 minutes ago [-]
The pollsters were predicting a close election. That was universally the message. It was unambiguous. I'm sorry if you somehow missed that but that's what it was.
avazhi 2 hours ago [-]
Same exact thing that happened in 2016: if you repeatedly demonise a section of the population, don’t expect that section of the population to be honest with you about its opinions when those opinions are what led you to demonise it in the first place.
MrScruff 1 hours ago [-]
I would say from the outside American politics seems to have devolved into this ultra-polarised culture war/identity politics that doesn't seem to benefit the left at all electorally. It probably helps the biggest proponents of it (on either side) in terms of playing to their base, but it feels like it's overall a net win for the right.

But I don't know how big a factor this is in reality versus the economy.

iainmerrick 59 minutes ago [-]
What are you talking about?

In 2016, the majority of outlets gave Clinton a 90% chance or more. This time almost everyone said it was 50:50. The result is somewhat similar, the predictions could hardly be more different.

SilverBirch 25 minutes ago [-]
Whilst this is objectively true - this result is basically within the margin of error of most polls. I highly doubt this argument is going to be accepted by most people. It'll be exactly like Nate Silver screaming into the void for the last 8 years pointing out he gave Trump a ~30% chance of winning and that happens... 30% of the time!
Tuna-Fish 2 hours ago [-]
The polls were actually surprisingly close. The final margin between the candidates in key states will be smaller than a reasonable margin of error for any poll.

The margin in Pennsylvania will continue to shrink, as the only place with lots of votes left to count is Philadelphia. Michigan might still flip blue, because the only place with votes to count is Detroit. Arizona is still a total coin toss, with 51k vote difference and >1200k votes left to count. Wisconsin is going to be close too, although it will likely stay red.

None of that matters when there are less ballots left to count than the margin in PA, but still, the message from the polls before election was "this will be a nailbiter", and it kind of was.

pfortuny 2 minutes ago [-]
Single-event statistics projections are pretty useless. Much more so when the “projections” are 50/50.
disgruntledphd2 2 hours ago [-]
If you look at the polls, they were incredibly close. This result is totally consistent with the polls, given the margin of error.
DiscourseFan 2 hours ago [-]
Harris won by around 5 points in NJ, Biden won NJ in 2020 by 16 points. That is a far wider swing than any poll predicted.
mbg721 2 hours ago [-]
People in a non-swing state figure "yolo" and vote for their emotional favorite, because they're dissatisfied with the status quo and have no other way to express it?
DiscourseFan 2 hours ago [-]
Well, it was close enough that it should worry the Dems and put NJ in play for Republics in the near future. NJ has not always voted consistently for democrats.
manquer 59 minutes ago [-]
The question is not why there was a swing, any number of reasons can be attributed ex post facto.

The point is no poll caught any of the swings at all. To win with this margin Trump the polls can hardly be tied and be called accurate.

The result is not a close at all, and it is not about swing states and electoral college swings. Trump is winning the popular vote by a large margin something he has never be able to do so before.

davedx 18 minutes ago [-]
If you read on the methodology of some of these 'election models', you'll understand there's a lot of narrative chasing that goes on (or even just "herding towards the least controversial number").

For example, from Nate Silver's blog:

> The Silver Bulletin polling averages are a little fancy. They adjust for whether polls are conducted among registered or likely voters and house effects. They weight more reliable polls more heavily. And they use national polls to make inferences about state polls and vice versa. It requires a few extra CPU cycles — but the reward is a more stable average that doesn’t get psyched out by outliers.

All this weighting and massaging and inferencing results in results that are basically wrong.

Come Election Night he basically threw the whole thing in the trash too!

astrange 2 hours ago [-]
The polls all said it was 50/50. They seem to be very accurate so far.
agumonkey 2 hours ago [-]
Trump seemed to have a head start early on, it really didn't feel like a close call somehow.
Hasnep 38 minutes ago [-]
But it wasn't actually a race, the votes were all finished being cast and were just being counted, so concepts like "having a head start" or "being ahead" don't really apply.
vdvsvwvwvwvwv 59 minutes ago [-]
Do you mean early in the counting? Surely thay doesn't matter.
agumonkey 35 minutes ago [-]
yeah it's was a fuzzy comment, i guess you mean the important/big states are always known last, but he really was ahead all along with a comfortable margin
everdrive 2 hours ago [-]
What I heard recently is that the 2020 polls were actually less accurate than the 2016 polls. (the 2020 polls simply accurately predicted the winner, so there wasn't so much controversy.) From that standpoint, it's not clear that polling has had very good accuracy from 2016. What I'm not sure about is why pollsters are not able to adjust their models towards more accuracy, but it does seem to be a longitudinal problem.
smallstepforman 32 minutes ago [-]
Busy people have no time to answer polsters. When you heavily critisize one group of supporters (and the social stigma associated with it), dont be suprised that in private they think differently. Finally, intentionally fabricating wrong poll results can psychologically influence weak minded (due to group think and our desire to comply with social norms). So it is immature to accept polls as a real indicator of what people think (especially in controversial political environment).

In reality, a lot more people have traditional values when it comes to race, LGBT whatever, sexism, spiritual values, opinions on Russia, Israel etc. However in public they may be scared to voice their true opinions.

ianhawes 3 minutes ago [-]
Most polls are conducted via text message now and have fairly robust screening to weed out fake responses.
tessierashpool9 2 hours ago [-]
"the polls" are often just part of a narrative to influence the outcome.
2 hours ago [-]
kragen 15 minutes ago [-]
The polls were predicting a near-tie for months. That was the correct prediction.
fcanesin 2 hours ago [-]
AtlasIntel did. I met Thiago (CTO) in Rio and Boston while he was doing his math PhD at Harvard, he is nice person and a fine mathematician: their methodology uses online polling on social media with micro-targeting. I only assume competitors are not leveraging social media as well as they are. Roman, the CEO, said they will donate all their raw data from the final polls to Roper Center at Cornell for academic research[1].

[1] https://x.com/andrei__roman/status/1854051400273244534

fernandotakai 6 minutes ago [-]
atlas intel has got so many elections correctly that i really don't understand why other pollsters are not copying their methodologies.

even nate silver called then the most accurate pollster during the 2020 race.

raldi 1 hours ago [-]
The polls predict chance of winning, not share of the vote.

If I predict a coin toss to be 50/50 that doesn’t mean I expect it to land on its side.

vbezhenar 49 minutes ago [-]
I guess dead squirrel changed public opinion enough.
csomar 1 hours ago [-]
Heavy partisan bias. Polymarket predict this quite well. Putting your money on the line is still a thing.
vdvsvwvwvwvwv 56 minutes ago [-]
Only if this attracts professional punters. I imagine pros prefer to punt on preductible things like 1000 soccer games they modelled using a million datapoints rather than 1 hard to predict election. A combination of vast predictive data and Kelly Criterion. I imagine the election money was dumb. It may have happen to be right.
dotancohen 1 hours ago [-]
All models are wrong. Some models are useful.

That pool was apparently more the former than the later.

arp242 2 hours ago [-]
Eh? All the polls basically said "we don't know, either can win", maybe followed with "X is slightly more likely to win".

Also note that a "90% / 10% change to win" is not necessarily "wrong" if the 10% candidate wins. Anyone who has played an RPG will tell you that 90% chance to hit is far from certain. Maybe if there had been 100 elections, Clinton would have won 90 of them.

dredmorbius 28 minutes ago [-]
The polling margins were razor-thin.

Pollsters such as Nate Silver were giving gut-takes of Red over Blue, e.g.:

"Nate Silver: Here’s What My Gut Says About the Election, but Don’t Trust Anyone’s Gut, Even Mine" (Oct. 23, 2024)

<https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/23/opinion/election-polls-re...>

I've done a somewhat half-assed take tonight of comparing actual returns to latest pre-election polling by state

Why that is, isn't clear. Political pollsters have been struggling for years with accuracy issues, particularly as landline usage falls (it's <20% in most states now), and unknown-caller blocking is more widely used (both on landlines and mobile devices).

Polling does have periodic calibration events (we call those "elections"), but whatever biases the polls seem to experience in the US, it's apparently systemically exceeding adjustment factors.

Polls / votes and deltas:

  QC   State EV  BP  RP  BV  RV   Bd   Rd

   4:  AL     9  36  64  32  65   -4    1  
   4:  AK     3  45  55   0   0  
   4:  AZ    11  49  51  49  50    0   -1  
   4:  AR     6  36  64  34  64   -2    0  
   4:  CA    54  63  37  60  37   -3    0  
   4:  CO    10  56  44  55  43   -1   -1  
   4:  CT     7  59  41  54  44   -5    3  
   4:  DC     3  92   7  90   7   -2    0  
   4:  DE     3  58  42  56  42   -2    0  
   4:  FL    30  47  53  43  56   -4    3  
   4:  GA    16  49  51  48  51   -1    0  
   4:  HI     4  64  36   0   0  
   4:  ID     4  33  67  33  64    0   -3  
   4:  IL    19  57  43  52  47   -5    4  
   4:  IN    11  41  57  39  59   -2    2  
   4:  IA     6  46  54  42  56   -4    2  
   4:  KS     6  42  51  41  57   -1    6  
   4:  KY     8  36  64  34  64   -2    0  
   4:  LA     8  40  60  38  60   -2    0  
   4:  ME     2  54  46   0   0  
   4:  ME-1   1  61  39   0   0  
   4:  ME-2   1  47  53   0   0  
   4:  MD    10  64  36  60  37   -4    1  
   4:  MA    11  64  36  62  35   -2   -1  
   4:  MI    15  50  49   0   0  
   4:  MN    10  53  47   0   0  
   4:  MS     6  40  60  37  62   -3    2  
   4:  MO    10  43  57  42  56   -1   -1  
   4:  MT     4  41  59  33  64   -8    5  
   4:  NE     4  41  59  42  56    1   -3  
   4:  NE-2   1  54  46   0   0  
   4:  NM     5  54  46  51  47   -3    1  
   4:  NV     6  50  50   0   0  
   4:  NH     4  53  47  52  47   -1    0  
   4:  NJ    14  57  43  51  46   -6    3  
   4:  NY    28  59  41  55  44   -4    3  
   4:  NC    16  49  51  48  51   -1    0  
   4:  ND     3  33  67  31  67   -2    0  
   4:  OH    17  46  54  44  55   -2    1  
   4:  OK     7  33  67  32  66   -1   -1  
   4:  OR     8  56  44  55  43   -1   -1  
   4:  PA    19  50  50   0   0  
   4:  RI     4  58  42  55  42   -3    0  
   4:  SC     9  44  56  40  58   -4    2  
   4:  SD     3  36  64  29  69   -7    5  
   4:  TN    11  38  62  34  64   -4    2  
   4:  TX    40  46  54  42  57   -4    3  
   4:  UT     6  39  61  43  54    4   -7  
   4:  VT     3  67  34  64  32   -3   -2  
   4:  VA    13  53  47  51  47   -2    0  
   4:  WA    12  59  41  58  39   -1   -2  
   4:  WV     4  30  70  28  70   -2    0  
   4:  WI    10  50  49   0   0  
   4:  WY     3  73  27  70  28   -3    1  
  
  
  Blue votes: 43
  Red votes: 43
  
  Blue delta:  -2.49
  Red delta:    0.63
Key:

- QC: A parsing QC value (number of raw fields) - State: 2-char state code, dash-number indicates individual EVs for NE and ME. - EV: Electoral votes - BP: Blue polling - RP: Red polling - BV: Blue vote return - RV: Red vote return - Bd: Blue delta (vote - poll) - Rd: Red delta (vote - poll)

The last two results are the cumulative average deltas. Blue consistently performed ~2.5 points below polls, red performed ~0.6 points above polls.

Data are rounded to nearest whole percent (I'd like to re-enter data to 0.1% precision and re-run, though overall effect should be similar). Deltas are computed only where voting returns are >0.

Data are hand-entered from 538 and ABC returns pages.

Blue consistently polled slightly higher than performance. Polls don't seem to include third parties (mostly Green, some state returns include RFK or others).

There are all but certainly coding/data entry errors here, though for illustration the point should hold.

trynumber9 2 hours ago [-]
I checked 538 before the election and they had Trump winning more often than not, but very close.
atoav 2 hours ago [-]
One experience I had (coming from an Austrian right wing province) is that a significant share of polled people will not reveal to the pollster they are voting for the xenophobic candidate, because they don't want to be seen as a bigot.

It is like when your doctor is asking you if you eat fast food — some people will downplay it because they know it is wrong, but do it anyways in a "weak" moment when nobody is looking.

So suddenly in my village where I know everybody 56% voted for the right wing candidate, yet everybody¹ claimed not to do that when asked before or after.

¹: except one or two open Nazis

lmz 1 hours ago [-]
agumonkey 20 minutes ago [-]
Even outside the polls. Trump rallies really started to empty out in the last weeks.
red_admiral 2 hours ago [-]
It seems prediction markets did better on this one: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/prediction-markets-suggest-...

(and this was while Biden was still in the race)

tomohawk 1 hours ago [-]
People no longer feel comfortable telling the truth about their votes.

https://www.axios.com/2024/10/30/election-gen-z-voting-lies

2 hours ago [-]
DiscourseFan 2 hours ago [-]
Yes, polls often tend to privilege the privileged, Harris voters skewed greatly towards higher average incomes and college education. And also, according to an exit poll, that the majority of Trump's voters decided to vote for him within the past week. It's generally been the case that populist politicians are underestimated by polling because they can't control for these factors.
refurb 1 hours ago [-]
They weren't that far off. Most were hovering around a tie with a margin of error of +/- 2-3%.

Trump won many of those states by 2-3%.

getnormality 2 hours ago [-]
Polling has fundamental issues that can't be solved with statistics. The biggest one is the unknown difference between who responds to the poll and who votes. And poll response areas are very low these days - I've heard well under 1% is common (that is, less than 1 out of 100 individuals contacted by the pollster answer the questions).

Nate Silver nailed this in the 2016 election. He said Trump's victory there was consistent with historically normal polling errors.

What may have been less widely appreciated is these errors are not related to causes like limited sample size that are straightforwardly amenable to statistical analysis. They come from the deeper problems with polling and the way those problems shift under our feet a little bit with each election.

aaron695 2 hours ago [-]
[dead]
Rinzler89 2 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
Woeps 2 hours ago [-]
Regardless of the "manipulate public opinion" claim ... , Didn't Clinton win the populair vote?
astrange 2 hours ago [-]
That obviously doesn't work; how do you know which direction discourages voters? Most campaigns' whole marketing approach relies on texting voters 2000 times a day saying they're about to lose.
t-3 2 hours ago [-]
Did anyone else feel like the incessant texts from political spammers made you not want to vote the candidate spamming you? Having to block 5 new numbers every time I picked up my phone for the past month was really frustrating.
dgfitz 1 hours ago [-]
I didn’t get a single text.

I guess I’m doing something right. I hate spam texts.

everdrive 2 hours ago [-]
That's probably not accurate. A false sense of confidence is just as likely to discourage voters (eg: "I don't need to go vote, candidate ABC is already winning!") as anything else.
sixothree 2 hours ago [-]
What’s your evidence for that claim?
dkdbejwi383 2 hours ago [-]
I don't think there is some kind of grand conspiracy where nefarious groups are out to "get" everyone.

More likely, it's what you see with any data set that produces incorrect results: the wrong data in.

yalogin 43 minutes ago [-]
Today we learned that immigration is more important for Americans than even abortion, so much that 3 states didn’t even codify it.
40 minutes ago [-]
karles 1 minutes ago [-]
Anyone trying to sanewash the fanatical fascist movement in here are in the wrong. Objectively and factually, Trump and his minions are in the wrong. They even admit to being in the wrong.

"Oh, but you don't understand the PEOPLE". Sure I do. and 54% of every voting adult cant read beyond a 6th grade level. They are illinformed/uninformed. They are hateful and resentful. And they have been democratically weaponized by people without values or morals.

The American people have shown their true face. Good luck with Project 2025. I'm sure most of the crowd here on HN will be directly affected in a negative way, as facts, science and the will to do whats right for the common good is gone. Trump is for sale for the highest bidder, and will always declare victory no matter how severe the loss.

I hope America gets their full-on fascist government. Then we can TRULY see just how much "winning" it will bring them. Hopefully enough for this kind of nonsense to be made history for the next 100 years again.

giantg2 23 minutes ago [-]
The big thing to remember is the election isn't over. I'm not talking about the president, but the house. Most of the things on the list of actions in the article, or list of concerns in the comments, will require congress to enact. We could still end up with a split congress. Even narrow majorities should imped the most extreme items. In my opinion, narrow majorities or a split is beneficial. It helps keep stuff from being rammed though without real thought or debate.
BadHumans 2 minutes ago [-]
I genuinely hope every non-racist that voted for Trump gets exactly what they want because I genuinely believe they will rig future elections so that Dems don't get the chance to take office again.
DiscourseFan 2 hours ago [-]
There might be a cultural issue here for the Dems. Many of the canvassers I met who were not retirees tended to be young women, often college-aged or a bit older, very liberal and very much benefitting directly from the economic status quo. To them, voting for anyone besides Harris was just completely insensible and they did not even bother to try and understand the views of anyone they spoke with (from what I could tell), they were just pushing "get out the vote" but no substantial reasons as to why. I suspect that many of these young women are fairly out of touch with the sentiments of most americans and the daily hardships of those without college degrees, especially young men. I suspect that many of these young women will be forced out of the party for that reason, and if they aren't, then they will have to learn to actually talk to people with opposing viewpoints and figure out how to get along with the so-called "deplorables." But most likely they will just end up working somewhere else; not all at once, but the dems will be forced to change their platforms, new candidates will get elected who will change their staffs, and an entire cohort of well-to-do liberal poly sci majors will be gradually shifted out of Washington.
sofixa 2 hours ago [-]
Well, can you think of any reason why those young women didn't want to consider and understand the "opposing view"?

Their rights are literally being stripped away, with threats of more. Even without that, the "opposing view" is voting for a convicted rapist, known pedophile, weirdly incestuous with his daughter, incapable of forming a coherent sentence, complete lack of understanding about any complex topic such as economy, admitted to spreading lies on many ocassions, started an insurrection, and on and on and on.

For literally anyone sane, any of those reasons individually would be totally disqualifying in a candidate. Let alone for people such as young women who have a lot to personally lose from a misogynist rapist promising to strip their rights. (If you haven't being paying attention, abortion restrictions have resulted in women dying of preventable reasons because doctors are afraid to do anything which might be interpreted as an abortion, even if the pregnant woman is dying in front of them from sepsis due to an unviable pregnancy; add in the threat of removing non-fault divorces, and it's genuinely scary).

wvh 1 hours ago [-]
Most men care. We have wives, mothers, daughters, friends. But it becomes very hard to vote for a party (mind you, I'm not American, but this is showing up everywhere) that airs too many radical sentiments that men are shit and useless. You lose your support. You can't build a majority that way. Keep the sensible people in the middle in the loop.
manquer 48 minutes ago [-]
> Most men care.

I don't think so, caring means doing something about it, if men weren't deeply misogynistic there would have been a woman president decades before. The behavior of men is not surprising however and is expected.

What is shocking is half the women in this country also don't care about their own interests either.

It is one thing for immigrants or working class to be voting against their own interests, economic and border policies are abstract and people historically have failed to attribute links to the administration responsible. Abortion is not abstract however, the linkage to right-wing policy is straightforward.

ethagnawl 48 minutes ago [-]
> ... that airs too many radical sentiments that men are shit and useless.

Are some people on TikTok saying things like this? Sure. Was this part of the campaign's messaging or the party's platform? No. Not in the least.

thrance 34 minutes ago [-]
Give me a single instance of a Democrat criticizing men in general, I'll give you 10 of Trump/Vance justifying rape or abuse or pedophilia
siffin 47 minutes ago [-]
Did that really happen though? or did the right just amplify those messages because they're very effective to campaign on? and now everyone just repeats them. Maybe even making a lot of young men feel even more despondent and useless in the process.

Kinda funny how the moment real progress is made on trying to give anyone other than males a hand up, they start crying like babies about how they're not getting enough attention. Meanwhile, those same men are literally stripping away women's rights to their own body.

stogot 38 minutes ago [-]
Have you not been paying attention? The left has been telling every white male they should be ashamed of themselves for the past 5 years, and on and on, and then started prioritizing pronouns

The Dobbs case made a compelling point that Roe was not accurate interpretation, such “rights” should never have been there. It’s the states decision, and now the states are giving it to voters

siffin 10 minutes ago [-]
I have never had anyone tell me as a white male that I should be ashamed of myself, not least from the left.

What I have been recently is very impressed by female talent in all sorts of industries, which makes me ponder how much we've lost holding them back all this time.

mastersummoner 33 minutes ago [-]
I'm an informed, white, male Democrat and I have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.
c22 2 hours ago [-]
The idea that there are only two "opposing views" and we must choose one of them is kind of the entire issue here imho.
sofixa 43 minutes ago [-]
That's what you get when you stick with a voting system that has been obsolete for a century.
c22 15 minutes ago [-]
Well, this is why I've voted third party for every election I've ever participated in.
macspoofing 2 hours ago [-]
>Well, can you think of any reason why those young women didn't want to consider and understand the "opposing view"?

Sure - but we're talking about pragmatic considerations. In hindsight, preservation or expansion of abortion rights was not enough to get men to turn out to vote for Harris in sufficient numbers to swing the election, so another kind of message should have been crafted for that voting block.

DoingIsLearning 43 minutes ago [-]
> Sure - but we're talking about pragmatic considerations. In hindsight, preservation or expansion of abortion rights was not enough to get men to turn out to vote for Harris in sufficient numbers to swing the election, so another kind of message should have been crafted for that voting block.

My stomach dropped when I heard a young men claim that Trump would be better because of his economic policies. To which I reply which ones? Followed by stumbling silence.

This is a young university educated 25 year old men raised in a Social Democrat European developed nation, claiming that Donald Trump would serve American interest and a world economy the best. We are absolutely underestimating the effect of people's world view being shaped by information wars on social media.

Adam Curtis 'Hypernormalisation' now feels like a Nostradamus level prediction of the decades to come.

konart 1 hours ago [-]
>For literally anyone sane, any of those reasons individually would be totally disqualifying in a candidate

Sorry, but this is not how it works.

People have fear, prejudice and many other things that worry them. Their fear may or may not be baseless but it is there and if you are sane and more or less logical you have to take it into account.

When people fear or do not understand something they tend to turn to someone who offers them a solution.

Some times it's a doctor, some times it's a drug dealer. Why? Well, many reasons (I'll excuse myself and won't start listing those because you can write a few books about each of them)

You want people to stop turning to mafia\drug dealers or some kind of charlatans for help? You have to do something about their fears.

This is sane and logical and any therapist will tell you something similar.

Yes, it might be hard to accept, but it is quite possible you have to fix this shit to be able to fix the "their rights are literally being stripped away" part.

edit: misprints

kypro 2 hours ago [-]
> abortion restrictions have resulted in women dying of preventable reasons because doctors are afraid to do anything which might be interpreted as an abortion, even if the pregnant woman is dying in front of them from sepsis due to an unviable pregnancy; add in the threat of removing non-fault divorces, and it's genuinely scary

I'm pro-choice, but this idea that pro-life opinions are not equally popular with women is just wrong and not support by polling on the subject. I'm more pro-choice than my GF.

gcau 2 hours ago [-]
Can you clarify what rights are being stripped away from women?
pavlov 2 hours ago [-]
It’s right there in the last paragraph of the comment you’re replying to.
sofixa 2 hours ago [-]
I did in my comment already.

Abortion restrictions are being implemented, which result in women being forced to carry feti which can be unviable (literally killing them), from rape or incest. Even if you don't believe women have the right to choose for themselves if they want to carry to term (I do, it's about bodily autonomy way before there's any other life in the consideration), this is egregious. Again, women are literally dying in hospitals because doctors don't want to save them out of fear of performing something which might be an abortion. This has happened in Poland, and in the US, and it will happen again.

The Supreme Court, majority appointed by Trump and similarly minded individuals, has already questioned no fault divorces and interracial marriage too.

Project 2025, sponsored by a big conservative think thank which is supporting Trump, and on whose support Trump relies (he has appointed lots of judges vetted by them, so to think they're not related is naive and delusional ), is against no fault divorces.

Most divorces are initiated by women. Most victims of domestic violence are women.

If that's not enough for you as stripping of rights, I don't know what will be. And I'm not a woman, nor American - I care because I'm capable of empathy, which seems to be a foreign concept to many Americans.

miningape 1 hours ago [-]
> Most divorces are initiated by women.

No having non-fault divorce doesn't stop divorces if you have an actual reason for it, a "fault" that caused the divorce if you will: Domestic abuse, cheating, abandonment, etc. Considering that men often lose the most in a divorce but don't initiate divorces indicates that women have a privilege here.

Marriage rates aren't only decreasing because of anti-social people: many men are starting to view marriage as a legal institution which benefits women exclusively - allowing them to extract resources from a man with the backing of the state and very little effort.

> Most victims of domestic violence are women.

Most reported victims of domestic violence are women. If you take into account unreported domestic violence, emotional abuse, and non-deadly domestic violence men are actually ahead of women in this particular stage of the oppression olympics.

Maybe if you could share some of that empathy with the men affected by these laws you'd see why they get pushed through, and why women also support them.

sofixa 37 minutes ago [-]
> Considering that men often lose the most in a divorce but don't initiate divorces indicates that women have a privilege here.

Or men don't initiate divorces because they have the most to lose?

> Most reported victims of domestic violence are women. If you take into account unreported domestic violence, emotional abuse, and non-deadly domestic violence men are actually ahead of women in this particular stage of the oppression olympics.

You can't make a claim like that without even a hint of a source. Yes, most female on male domestic violence and abuse goes unreported and hell, many men get mocked for "letting a woman do that to them". It's of course horrific. Is there any indication this is happening at a rate similar to or higher than domestic violence against women? I have never seen any, but feel free to share.

> Maybe if you could share some of that empathy with the men affected by these laws you'd see why they get pushed through,

Which laws?!

DiscourseFan 1 hours ago [-]
>I care because I'm capable of empathy

Women are a reactionary element for a reason. Now they've finally been pushed to radical extremes and you see this as a bad thing?

quink 2 hours ago [-]
I mean take your pick: https://www.americanprogress.org/article/women-paid-price-tr... or just listen to his words... "I'm going to do it, whether the women like it or not".
1 hours ago [-]
DiscourseFan 2 hours ago [-]
I like that anger! Now that you can't postpone the inevitable, maybe you'll actually have to do something about it instead of wasting your time and energy whining about it.
sofixa 2 hours ago [-]
I, thankfully, don't live in the US. I know women who do, and they're terrified. What do you want them to do, mount an armed insurrection? Murder Trump? Firebomb the Republican-majority Capitol?
DiscourseFan 1 hours ago [-]
What do you want them to do, have a panic attack and kill themselves? It seems that I have more hope in women's collective power than you do.
DeliriousDog 2 hours ago [-]
This comment is disgusting. Voting is what they did about it, and they still have their rights at risk.
DiscourseFan 1 hours ago [-]
Turns out voting is not enough! Damn, if only those Black Panthers got out to vote, we would've fixed racism in America. Shame.
LunaSea 45 minutes ago [-]
Maybe they should simply refuse to give up power like your candidate did the last time no?
miningape 1 hours ago [-]
The myopia here is crazy. As though the dems and their candidates aren't equally bad - except all of their actions are against young men rather than women.

Also what rights are on the line here exactly? Free speech? no, thats what the dems have been attacking. Suffrage? Nope no one is trying to remove this. Even if you want to say "Roe v Wade": it's not a right to get an abortion, and its not even banned just not regulated at a federal level.

audunw 2 hours ago [-]
You're on to something. I think Scott Galloway got it right in this interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzLmznS91kM

The Democratic party has a problem communicating to young white men why they should vote democrat. The party doesn't speak to them at all. I don't think there's much wrong with the policies. It could perhaps use some more policies targeting men's rights. But it's mostly a communication problem. Young men don't feel seen by the democratic party, and the democrats need to realize this and fix it for the next election.

127 2 hours ago [-]
Looking from afar, the dominating far left elements of the DNC have been actively hostile to unmarried white men, and completely disconnected from young men (who don't fit into a very narrow mold of acceptability) in general.
guerrilla 2 hours ago [-]
The sad thing is that there isn't anything "left" in that "far left". It's just misandry without the socialism.
orwin 1 hours ago [-]
The sad thing is calling anything in the Democrat party 'left'. Historically, right means pro-power, pro status quo, and left pro reform and pro-distribution of power. At first it was political, then it was more generalized (far right is getting back to full monarchy/empire/whatever, basically going back in time).

Do the Democrat seems left to you?

threeseed 2 hours ago [-]
> actively hostile to unmarried white men

Feel free to name these policies you think are specifically hostile to white men.

siffin 44 minutes ago [-]
You'll be waiting a long while, unmarried white women are too busy having their body autonomy taken away. Poor men.
threeseed 2 hours ago [-]
It actually mirrors what is happening in South Korea.

Women are becoming more liberal as they push for equality and bodily autonomy. Men are becoming more conservative because they feel that women's rights are coming at the expense of theirs and that no one is addressing their concerns.

And so there is a large cultural and political divide.

Which then has all sorts of side effects e.g. men becoming more 'incel' in their behaviour because women aren't interested in dating them, birth rate dropping because woman don't want to be stay at home moms etc.

llm_trw 36 minutes ago [-]
What's missing is that men in South Korea are expected to spend 2 to 3 years of their life in the army. This was a reasonable tradeoff when women would spend as much time being pregnant - I risk my life to protect you, you risk yours to give me something to protect.

At this point with how quickly South Korea is falling apart socially the young men may well welcome an invasion by the North since they have nothing to fight for - what happens if we have a war and we don't show up?

threeseed 20 minutes ago [-]
That is a horrific and dystopian trade-off.

Pretty sure most women would just prefer to fight than be forced to carry a pregnancy.

llm_trw 15 minutes ago [-]
>Pretty sure most women would just prefer to fight than be forced to carry a pregnancy.

And people get upset when liberals are called a death cult.

davedx 13 minutes ago [-]
When she deliberately chose not to go on Joe Rogan was where I started to seriously doubt her chances.

It was all Beyonce, Michelle Obama and Taylor Swift.

You can say everything you want about Rogan, but I still really, really wish she'd done one interview with him.

matwood 2 hours ago [-]
Galloway has been harping on this for awhile. Check the Democrats website and it lists who they are for. All groups are there including women, but nothing about men or young men. I heard a blurb on the news last night that college aged men broke heavily towards Trump.
kragen 8 minutes ago [-]
As I understand it, in the US, "get out the vote" efforts don't count as campaigning, so they aren't subject to campaign finance laws. Attempting to persuade voters to vote for something or someone in particular, or even trying to understand their views, would likely put them in a different organizational category.
justin66 2 hours ago [-]
> they were just pushing "get out the vote" but no substantial reasons as to why.

That's the focus of any canvasser, not just the young women you did not like.

wvh 1 hours ago [-]
The "tolerant" left has become the intolerant blind block I've been raised to fear the far right for. As a typical European middle-aged (I guess) male, mostly apolitical, I don't really feel anybody speaks for me anymore. The failure of the left is what is driving the growth of the right, by losing those people who very much were reaching out to minorities, female and other "left" interests. Tune out the radicals and work with the "sensible" people in the middle, and that goes for both left and right...

Why are we letting pure simplistic tribal emotion take over in this age of science and rationality?...

matthewmorgan 2 hours ago [-]
Curious what you mean by benefitting directly from the economic status quo? Non-American here
mike_hearn 2 hours ago [-]
Roughly half of Gen Z men believe men face anti-male discrimination at the hands of feminists, and a quarter say they experienced it directly themselves. That's a huge number and the latter number can only go upwards by the nature of the question. The numbers are also rising very fast. The primary place they experience that discrimination is their workplace or university, i.e. places that affect their economic wellbeing.

https://www.americansurveycenter.org/newsletter/why-young-me...

Nearly one in four Gen Z men say they have experienced discrimination or were subject to mistreatment simply because they were men, a rate far greater than older men.

In 2019, less than one-third of young men reported that men experienced some or a lot of discrimination in American society. Only four years later, close to half (45 percent) of young men now believe men are facing gender-based discrimination. For some young men, feminism has morphed from a commitment to gender equality to an ideology aimed at punishing men. That leads to predictable results, like half of men agreeing with the statement, “These days society seems to punish men just for acting like men.”

Trompair 49 minutes ago [-]
It has morphed. Or at least the algorithms are pushing militant feminism far more prominently nowadays.

All these guys see on their social feeds, day-in, day-out, is 'feminists' stating that all men are just rapists-in-waiting and how they should have their rights and/or autonomy restricted, or from the most extreme examples, be physically mutilated or outright murdered.

You don't have to look hard to find this stuff on social media, and once you do find it, that's all you'll ever be served.

amarcheschi 2 hours ago [-]
I wonder what they perceive as "acting like man". I'm a 22yo guy and living in a sketchy area in italy I always have a friend who's a woman living near me that asks to walk her at home to feel more safe. That's something very manly indeed, and God if it's nice. Hell, one day I drove some burlesque performers home and when I saw one of them was scared I proposed to come at the door of her stay if she would have felt safer with me. That's again quite good for my perception of being a decent man, doing something that's tipically relegated to men.

I wonder what discrimination they face day to day, whether it is phisical or online

Foreignborn 1 hours ago [-]
There are so many layers to your comment.

Aren’t you now asking yourself, “who are they scared of?”

Let the answer sink in.

amarcheschi 58 minutes ago [-]
I know what women are scared of in that area, God damn I'm autistic but not stupid. I'm slightly on the edge as well, that's understandable. What I'm trying to grasp, is how men perceive they're being discriminated against. If you feel like you're being discriminated because women are scared of men at night in a bad lit sketchy area, that's not discrimination, that's just survival instinct, and I have it too, be it some guy walking his dog on a leash or a woman in her fifties walking alone
skinkestek 46 minutes ago [-]
> I wonder what they perceive as "acting like man".

As late as yesterday a woman I need to listen to had opinions on something as basic as how men are supposed to pee, telling that how most men feel comfortable peeing is wrong.

That is just one.

But I think it goes all the way from kindergarten up in some places.

amarcheschi 35 minutes ago [-]
All the opinions I've ever heard on how to do something we're mostly said by another men. I feel truly sorry for the men that have to endure this shit, many more times I was deemed gay (jokingly, of course, but still it happened) because I dressed with silk clothes or eclectic outfits (that aren't even so electing) or the way I behaved, and all this was said by friend who were guys as me (the type of guys that would joke about gays and trans and say they have no issues with them but then have to argue about the bathroom trans people use), yet it's silly to berate the entire man-slice of society for this. Stupid people are everywhere
36 minutes ago [-]
DiscourseFan 2 hours ago [-]
Just the way it is. Most of the "growth" in the last 4 years went to top-wage earners; the bottom (that is, the majority of people) did not see their wages grow faster than inflation. The US has a very particular class of highly educated professionals who live in very specific neighbourhoods that tend to be fairly closed off socially from the rest of society; they have all benefitted tremendously from the Biden/Harris presidency and are her strongest supporters. On the other hand, many Americans who never went to college or never got a Bachelor's at least make much less money on average and have seen food prices and rents skyrocket over the last four years and if they had any savings they've essentially evaporated. These two groups of people don't generally talk to each other.
goosedragons 2 hours ago [-]
And those top-wage earners are college aged liberal women and not old rich conservative white dudes?
bloqs 2 hours ago [-]
The old rich conservative dudes are the top brass and the incumbent but they often dont earn high wages, they exist outside the earning a living categories. Their income is gaining from their capital in ways that arent classed as income. The top of the upper middle classes are who he is talking about. The difference between the top middle classes and the bottom is larger than it has been for a while
DiscourseFan 2 hours ago [-]
They're both? But the upper-middle class is far larger than the legitimate bourgeoisie, so they're class interests count for a lot more in politics.
EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 1 hours ago [-]
College aged women often benefit financially from old rich dudes.
beeboobaa3 2 hours ago [-]
They got to have some control over their bodies. So much for that.
goosedragons 2 hours ago [-]
Well see, once the Project 2025 folks get finished it'll be illegal for women to work and do anything besides birth babies, so currently they benefit by being able to participate in the economy.
DiscourseFan 2 hours ago [-]
If that happens then the economy will collapse since a large amount of the growth in 20th century was due to integrating women into the work force. All I see from the Trump campaign is a policy so chock full of contradictions it won't lead to anything but a political explosion. And then they'll be an opportunity for some real change.
threeseed 1 hours ago [-]
If Musk runs the government the way he is running X, a political explosion is all but certain.
lobsterthief 39 minutes ago [-]
Yeah, what he doesn’t understand is that the government bureaucracy that’s been created is the only reason many of the departments of government work as _quickly_ as they do.

While we as engineers see what appear to be obvious slow inefficiencies (like: “I could build a system to replace all that the DMV does so people won’t need to sit in that waiting room!”) the reality is we don’t even understand all that the DMV does.

I feel that’s the trap Musk falls into, and it became blatantly obvious when he took over X.

DiscourseFan 1 hours ago [-]
Excellent
CalRobert 2 hours ago [-]
My mom canvassed for Harris in PA and she’s 64…
DiscourseFan 2 hours ago [-]
Nobody who has time to travel from all over the country to canvass needs to work everyday to support themselves and/or their families.
verywellsaidsir 2 hours ago [-]
Very well said sir. They also don't understand the regular American. Who has to put food on the table without a college degree.
innocentdang 2 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
matsemann 1 hours ago [-]
Do you see the irony of complaining about them not "understanding your views" while you generalize a huge swath of young women? And why the hold-up on them being women at all?
chiefalchemist 2 hours ago [-]
> they were just pushing "get out the vote" but no substantial reasons as to why

Perhaps. But that's not their fault. Anecdotally, 100% of my left leaning friends and colleagues were pro-Harris but with no reason other than "not Trump." That's not a "message" the undecided independents can believe in. Imagine Pepsi's key msg to be "not Coke".

Frank Luntz just said on ABC News that Harris began to lose ground ~6 wks ago when she resorted to name calling. Didn't HRC make the same mistake? How do undecided independents build trust in someone who was so guarded (e.g., zero press conferences)? And wastes time with name calling instead of hammering home her vision?

It's gonna be another four yrs of left-hate for Trump. The DNC leadership won't own their failure (again). The Harris campaign won't own their bad decisions. It'll all be Trump's fault.

Their incompetence is Trump's fault? That's lack of accountability isn't working. Again.

johnny22 2 hours ago [-]
I dunno, seemed pretty obvious to me. I wanted Harris because I wanted her to finish what biden was doing, and keep people like Lina Khan in. I wanted to see more investment in infrastructure and all that jazz. Seems like a nobrainer.
chiefalchemist 10 minutes ago [-]
You saw what you wanted to see, which is fine. However, for others her set of benefits wasn't as clear. For most, her closeness to Biden was a negative. For me her adverts were too abstract. "I'm going to stop the price gouging" but never said how.

I get it, her campaign didn't have a lot of time. That said, the DNC should have a pulse on what voters are looking for, etc. As it is, this is the third candidate handpicked by the DNC and 2 of 3 lost to an inexperienced politician. That's not the victor's fault. Tho I'm confident there will be little to no accountability owned by the DNC. It's going to be four more years of blame the winner.

locopati 2 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
mbg721 2 hours ago [-]
The impeachments and conviction were perceived by his voters, rightly or wrongly, as cheap political acts done by a corrupt administration. And his opponent, elected in the primaries, was pulled away for actual dementia. If you want to win people over, this is the exact opposite of the way to do it.
amarcheschi 2 hours ago [-]
So you don't have a way to win if you play by the rules, as long as you can make voters think that whatever you're doing is right and whatever the others are doing is wrong, am I right?
satvikpendem 1 hours ago [-]
Like it or not, that's how politics works, stretching back millennia across many cultures.
sidcool 2 hours ago [-]
That's like insulting millions of people. I don't think it's that. Trump has to have some appeal that rest of the world is missing. It's not possible to win otherwise.
amarcheschi 2 hours ago [-]
True, he's skilled as well in doing shady business with enemy states such as Russia
t-3 1 hours ago [-]
From the (preliminary) numbers I'm seeing it looks like Democrat turnout dropped back to normal levels, while Republican and independents were higher.
column 2 hours ago [-]
It's not insulting millions, it's absolutely factual. All the comment you replied to was describing is Trump himself, and millions still voted for the guy. As to WHY they voted for him, I'm sure journalists/analysts/pundits will overflow us with reasons.
2 hours ago [-]
lupusreal 2 hours ago [-]
Dems won't change their strategy and probably won't have to, because after Trump is past his term limit the Republican party will be back to offering up wet noodles like Jeb and Romney, who won't be able to persuade the working class to vote. Against weaker less charismatic opponents, the poor strategy of the DNC will matter far less.

And everything will continue to suck for the working class. Trump won't actually succeed in fixing much of anything for them, even if he tries, and nobody else is even going to pretend to care. The DNC will continue to be the party for yuppies that sneers at uneducated working men while the RNC takes off the mask stops pretending to care about anything besides the managerial class and Christian/Zionism issues.

linguae 2 hours ago [-]
What makes you sure the GOP will revert to the pre-2016 era? I believe that unless MAGA-style politics somehow gets repudiated before the general election in 2028, the future of the GOP is MAGA. The next presidential nominee will be in the mold of Trump, maybe less bombastic, but will follow similar policies on social and economic issues.

I think a fatal strategy for never-Trumpers is to assume that Trump and MAGA will go away. Every gaffe and every scandal seems to strengthen Trump. It hasn’t gone away, and we will have to live with the consequences. Perhaps a better strategy is to accept that the GOP these days is the MAGA party, and we need new strategies for competing in future elections.

lupusreal 2 hours ago [-]
Trump politics without a Trump personality doesn't work. The closest they'll get to emulating Trump is getting somebody like Jeb to awkwardly cuss a few times.
DiscourseFan 2 hours ago [-]
Yes, wet noodles like JD Vance who completely wrecked Tim Walz in the debate.
redeux 2 hours ago [-]
That seems like a partisan take rather than an objective one.
nervousvarun 2 hours ago [-]
I wouldn't say the BBC is partisan...They called it for Vance: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5y0863ry88o

Overall though do agree it was a fairly close debate not particularly one-sided.

Will say if guys like Vance & DeSantis are the future of the GOP that a significant upgrade over Trump.

I still don't quite understand why DeSantis fared so poorly w/ the GOP for this election. He appears to be far more competent/palatable than Trump but here are.

eth0up 1 hours ago [-]
DeSantis has made a few mistakes that have shaken previous supporters and infuriated others. I've mostly scratched my head at most if it, but one that I couldn't ignore was the adorable plot to turn our State Parks into sports facilities. I simply cannot trust or support anyone who views our priceless preserves as untapped resources in need of strip malls and golf courses. Florida is already at or past a sustainable threshold with the diseased variety of "progress" that prevails here.

For me, once we altogether lose the quintessence of this state (this isn't Disneyland or Lennar), it'll be little more than a Skinner Box with perennial cyclones, bad traffic and pestilence, surrounded by cement embellished views of red tide.

lupusreal 2 hours ago [-]
Nobody voted for Vance (or for vice presidents generally.) I've seen nothing to suggest he has the kind of popularity or RNC establishment support that would make him a viable presidential candidate. The only way he gets there is if Trump dies, which is possible but not relevant to the DNC's strategy for the next election.
eastabrooka 1 hours ago [-]
Vance was pretty good at talking on Rogan.
throwaway314155 2 hours ago [-]
This is satire right?
2 hours ago [-]
matsemann 2 hours ago [-]
> then they will have to learn to actually talk to people with opposing viewpoints

Why is there a different standard applied to one of the sides?

halgir 2 hours ago [-]
It's an observation on what it takes to win for this particular "side", not a moral comparison of the two.
zpeti 2 hours ago [-]
Because OP is talking about the side that lost. If you want to win, you probably need to change. This isn't about standards, it's about what works.
yapyap 2 hours ago [-]
I mean from an outsiders POV it really was a no brainer on who you’d want as president, hint: it’s not the pedophile, you never want a pedophile as president
ffsm8 2 hours ago [-]
Pedophile means to be attracted to girls that are pre puberty - not girls that are 50 yrs younger but still over 18.
lobsterthief 36 minutes ago [-]
Yeah, I don’t support Trump but calling him a pedophile is disingenuous. Calling him a name that hasn’t been proven just alienates people further. What we should be calling him is a convicted rapist, because he is literally a convicted rapist.
master-lincoln 2 hours ago [-]
Why not? I'd argue a racist or misogynist would make it worse for society than a pedophile (mainly because I think there is a very strong notion of protecting kids in society, but a less stronger notion when it comes to minority groups or women).

Do you think a president would make bad policy choices because they are secretly attracted to minors?

sigh_again 1 hours ago [-]
In this case, the pedophile is _also_ a racist, misogynistic, violent, person, but pop off.
throwaway314155 1 hours ago [-]
wtf?
raldi 1 hours ago [-]
It’s a waste of time for canvassers to try to change anyone’s position; people’s political positions come from their lived experiences.

Canvassing is all about ensuring that the people who already agree with your position know how to express that on the ballot, and do.

amelius 5 minutes ago [-]
Made possible by the internet.
48 minutes ago [-]
rkhassen9 39 minutes ago [-]
With all of the hacking and newfangled ai tools out there, perhaps hand counting removes some of that element.
dotancohen 33 minutes ago [-]
And when electronic voting was first introduced, it was seen as a step towards reducing fraud in the hand counted voting process.

I suppose that one could conclude that electronic voting simply moved the fraud from local fraud to remote fraud.

smallstepforman 30 minutes ago [-]
Casino slot machines are highly regulated and certified by accredited agencies. They give accurate results. Vote counting machines, not so much.
data_maan 46 minutes ago [-]
Voters everywhere are stupid but in the country of exceptionalism, they lately seem to have become exceptionally stu... tolerant!
sleepydog 4 minutes ago [-]
Thanks HN! I was feeling lost, but it looks like every single one of you know exactly why Trump won and Harris lost! I had no idea there were so many top-notch political strategists here. Maybe you should all get into politics instead of rewriting left-pad in Rust or whatever it is you all do. You could totally disrupt the democratic party!

> the great experiment of mass migration has failed to work for the average person

> you won't win by claiming to be 0.1% less bad.

> the Democrats should win every election, especially against Trump. But, they can't get out of their own way.

> I hate to break it to you but actually you are literally a major reason Trump won. People are tired of your bullshit rhetoric.

This is a gold mine here. Seriously, why aren't you all in politics? Maybe openAI can scrape these comments and get the first GenAI candidate elected into office!

maxglute 1 hours ago [-]
House and senate sweep? Interesting times intensifies.
pubby 56 minutes ago [-]
Something I've been wondering lately is how big of a blind spot I have from being habitually online. Like, I'll read the news, and I'll read political discussions on HN and r/politics and r/conservative and Twitter, and I'll try to get a sense of what everyone is thinking, but unfortunately I don't think that's possible. The posters on these sites all have one thing in common: they're into politics and current events.

Having a chance to talk to more people in meatspace this year, it was a surprise to find out how many people have only a passing interest in politics, but still vote. Like, the average user here probably reads 5+ news articles a day, but there are plenty of people IRL that will read one a month, or maybe just skim a headline. They don't really keep up-to-date with the race. They mostly vote by feel and pragmaticism.

People always talk about "shy" Trump voters, but what makes me more curious are voters that match the description above. If you put someone in a voting booth who isn't interested by news, who do they vote for? I mean, Trump has a lot of surface-level qualities - he's a tall, confident white man who's a successful boss of business and an anti-establishment outsider - and maybe that's enough to capture this demographic.

theonething 4 minutes ago [-]
> he's a tall, confident white man who's a successful boss of business and an anti-establishment outsider - and maybe that's enough to capture this demographic.

How nauseatingly condescending. How about issues like illegal immigrants coming in raping/killing women, taking over apartment complexes and living off struggling Americans' taxpayer dime? How about all time high inflation or massive layoffs?

cynicalpeace 15 minutes ago [-]
You were respectably drifting away from your elitism in the first two paragraphs.

Then the last paragraph shows you have a long way to go.

> If you put someone in a voting booth who isn't interested by news, who do they vote for? I mean, Trump has a lot of surface-level qualities - he's a tall, confident white man who's a successful boss of business and an anti-establishment outsider - and maybe that's enough to capture this demographic.

I live in a rural working class region. I have beers with these guys all the time. They're my best friends and I'm the odd coder guy that works from home.

They do not care about the surface level qualities, besides the fact that he's hilarious. They might not read articles but they listen to podcasts a lot on their commutes at 4AM in the morning.

They don't want war with Russia, they're pissed about the COVID stuff, and they aren't happy with the price of gas.

They don't care that he's tall.

pavlov 1 hours ago [-]
There’s lots of blame and anger directed at Democrats, but ultimately it’s the Republicans who picked Trump.

They could have won against the unpopular Biden/Harris with practically any other candidate. Nikki Haley polled well against all possible Democrats.

The party was already done with Trump in February 2021, but then they explicitly decided that they prefer one more try with an old man who doesn’t spare much thought to actual policies but does brag about sexual assault, tried to orchestrate a coup last time he lost an election, etc. etc.

It’s not inflation or Biden’s unpopularity or some other external factor. Lots of Americans really want what Trump is selling.

lgvln 1 hours ago [-]
Yeap. Basically, a majority of American voters prefers a narcissistic misogynistic racist billionaire rapist. If someone like him can win the popular vote and the election then there is probably a huge problem in the society.
casenmgreen 57 minutes ago [-]
Yes. Trump lies through his teeth, constantly, and about half the voting electorate believe him. That's a failure of education.

Trump polls well with those who lack higher education, and it's for a reason; they're less able to tell truth from fiction, and he has successfully deceived them.

They will cheer him on, honestly believing they're doing the right thing, while he cares not one jot about them and will happily take full advantage of them, while blaming others for their suffering - which they will believe.

smallstepforman 29 minutes ago [-]
Some would say that Trump won 3 times
WiSaGaN 47 minutes ago [-]
Apparently claiming the other side is worse in Gaza issue is not enough. Democratic voters simply refuse to turn out in swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin.
nirav72 51 minutes ago [-]
Looks like he also might win the popular vote. First republican to win the popular vote since 2004. If this is true, then this was a clear mandate that the a majority of voters prefer Trump's policies over the other side. We might not like it, but this is how democracy works.

There is certainly going to be domestic and international chaos in the coming years. But a realignment of the world order and domestic politics was inevitable. It's not going to be end of the world like some are making out to be. Nor is it going to be the end of the United States. There will be opportunities. Buckle up and find opportunities where you can.

ethagnawl 34 minutes ago [-]
> Nor is it going to be the end of the United States.

We're looking at the possibility of a 7-2 Supreme Court stacked with activist judges (the new ones will be even more so). Now, it depends on your definition of "the United States" but whatever comes out the rear end of this is going to look different to the point of potentially being unrecognizable. They already have the playbook.

A few bleary-eyed, scatterbrained possibilities: mass deportations, end of the free press/open internet, end of the Department of Education (public school?), end of birth control, bans on vaccines, etc., etc.

nemo44x 9 minutes ago [-]
Republicans did a great job mobilizing voters. They’ve learned from the tactics the Democrats pioneered and it worked well. Things like early voting, etc. This election will be a landslide but looks like and I believe in large part because of how they exploited the early voting opportunity.
major505 3 hours ago [-]
Well, we gonna have 4 years of amazing memes.
pyrale 2 hours ago [-]
For some people, the consequences won't be as benign.
bigodbiel 25 minutes ago [-]
For the world the consequences will be horrible
major505 2 hours ago [-]
yeah, they will now scream for 4 years and have sore throats.
catlifeonmars 3 minutes ago [-]
[delayed]
jajko 2 hours ago [-]
I wonder how mr musk will handle and use his (unfortunately correct) bet.
soco 2 hours ago [-]
If you invest millions and your entire time it's not a "bet" it's a business plan.
bagels 3 minutes ago [-]
Gut sec and fcc. That is his motivation.
agent86 2 hours ago [-]
The more interesting thing to consider is that Trump has said Elon will have an active role in his administration. How is he going to do that on top of everything else? How are Tesla investors going to feel about this?
conradfr 1 hours ago [-]
It will cut into his Diablo playing time.
major505 2 hours ago [-]
I think for most of his business he already have other peiple he trust in charge of them. Its impossible to manage so many companies and he seens to spend more effort in Space X than Tesla, starking, etc...
rkagerer 39 minutes ago [-]
It'll be interesting to see if he's able to become an effective beurocrat.
badpun 1 hours ago [-]
The CEO of a company being one of most powerful people in government is excellent for Tesla investors. Much less so for the general population, as the conflict of interests is obvious.
corpMaverick 34 minutes ago [-]
Perhaps, but a lot of potencial customers will be pissed at him.
jajko 1 minutes ago [-]
Especially outside US - if next government will ignore world or start doing some serious harm (ie by being too friendly with putin), tesla drivers will be frowned upon universally and very few new sales can be expected, more like a lot of vandalism on cars.

I guess China is a gone market for tesla at this point.

iLoveOncall 2 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
dataengineer56 2 hours ago [-]
He's quite old and no other Republican figure comes close to his popularity or cult-like following (assuming Americans aren't crazy enough to actually support RFK Jr). I'd imagine he'll do one term and then the next Republican candidate will be a more conventional politician.
iainmerrick 2 hours ago [-]
You don’t imagine the next candidate will be an anointed successor, or at least somebody doubling down on the same approach? Why wouldn’t it be?
major505 2 hours ago [-]
I dont know, 4 years are hard to predict. I can see the current crisis in the world deepening and people search for a more traditional politician for that reason, like somoone more predictable in times of uncertain?

Not that I think the next 4 years of Trump will be bad for the avarage american. I think I will be troubled for the whole world because things are already walking in this direction.

major505 2 hours ago [-]
I think he chose Vance for a reason. I think he wnats him to be his sucessor. I dont know much about Vance, but I saw his interview in the Joe Rogan, and he went very well there. Seens to have a good head above the shoulds and can be this more conventional politician you are talking about
seanp2k2 2 hours ago [-]
This. Do people honestly think that Mike Johnson, who was planning to attempt to not certify the election and have the House try to overturn the result if Harris won, will really cede control EVER? Who’s going to force them now that they’ve captured the judiciary, Congress, and the White House? He’ll pardon himself on day one and never face his classified documents / espionage / treason charges, and die in office, however long they can prop him up for. I’m not even joking when I say that I doubt we’ll have federal elections in the future, as he’s said as much already.
cmrdporcupine 2 hours ago [-]
The template these autocratic personalities follow is not to abolish elections, but to make them pointless exercises full of blatant corruption, coercion (violent or otherwise), and manipulation.

It's counterproductive to make claims like what you're claiming, because their supporters and people on the fence will turn around and point out how you're wrong in 4 years, or whatever.

There's still elections in Russia, Turkey, etc. And those leaders are very popular.

But they're not democracies. Opposition is not really permitted. Where legal repression isn't in place, mob violence and the like is employed.

That's the template you can expect to see followed.

Cthulhu_ 2 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
pavlov 2 hours ago [-]
The scariest thing is the Peter Thiel connection.

Thiel paid for Vance’s successful Senate campaign. Now his made man is next in line for the presidency (behind an overweight 78-year-old with memory issues). An amazing ROI for his money.

Both Thiel and Vance have expressed their admiration for Curtis Yarvin, an extreme reactionary who advocates for a monarchy. Thiel has publicly said that democracy was a mistake and it all went wrong when women got the vote.

Musk’s Tesla job title is “Techno-King” which is also a Yarvin reference. These people have a plan, and old Donald is a tool for them.

code_biologist 2 hours ago [-]
If readers of this thread aren't familiar with the Thiel connection, you need to hear the journalist Whitney Webb's work. She's brilliant.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMYdu-vTuPI - "The REAL Reason Behind J.D. Vance’s VP Pick; Marty sits down with Whitney Webb and Mark Goodwin to discuss the partnership of the private tech sector with the surveillance state."

It's a two hour interview. Discussion of JD Vance and Palantir connection is at 12:30ish. A lot of "tin-foil hat" things seem pretty real.

dools 55 minutes ago [-]
> A lot of "tin-foil hat" things seem pretty real.

Yes it's tragically ironic that the people who believe most in outlandish conspiracy theories vote for the people who are openly involved in the most outlandish conspiracies, none of which said conspiracy theorists care about.

major505 2 hours ago [-]
Demos rulled 4 years with total support o the sillicon valley and you did not get nervous? Facebook and google have way more reach than Thiel and gave full access to govermnet to their tech and data.
DiscourseFan 1 hours ago [-]
Nick Land!!!!
major505 2 hours ago [-]
Interisngs. Now benig old and have memorues issues is a problem to being a president?
pavlov 2 hours ago [-]
Yes - you may have noticed that the current president didn’t seek re-election for those reasons. His successor is just as old and not significantly better equipped mentally (judging by the way he talks and conducts himself).

Vance may become president much sooner than 2029, and Thiel and Musk will be the greatest beneficiaries.

major505 2 hours ago [-]
The current president was ousterd by the part because it was becoming hard to pretend he even have a clue of where the hell he is. Last election he talked all type of absurd shit during campaing, and democrats didnt even bat an eye. Actually he was the perfect puppet for them. Do you really think it was not Kamala and the resto fo the people in charge of the democrat party thhat really rulled in place of Biden?
LunaSea 40 minutes ago [-]
Didn't your candidate refuse to publish his medical bill of health?

He must've gotten confused with his tax records which he also never published.

Dylan16807 1 hours ago [-]
> Last election he talked all type of absurd shit during campaing, and democrats didnt even bat an eye.

Both of them had issues. And both of them got much worse since.

Eyes were batted, but there's no reason to change your vote because of a problem that both choices have.

And then it became an problem that only one choice had, but it feels like almost all the Trump supporters that were being loud about age issues were disingenuous...

theshrike79 2 hours ago [-]
Vance is even more dangerous since he won't go off script, he'll stay ON SCRIPT to the point of absurdity (just see any of his interviews).

Donald is harder to control, he doesn't like homework and will ad-lib and improvise at all times.

lobsterthief 34 minutes ago [-]
I dunno, pretty sure he tops the donor list and would be getting a transplant in less than an hour.
major505 2 hours ago [-]
and people say americans that followed Q where paranoids...
jeffhuys 2 hours ago [-]
Yeah, sure. This is no better than all the "left is deep state" bs. This is what caused the loss.
major505 2 hours ago [-]
Yeah, the conspiracy theories about this assassination atempt alone, gave a lot of votes to Trump.
fullstackchris 2 hours ago [-]
I think its a crazy assumption to assume that over 200 years of political precident (4 year presidential terms) will be overturned by someone who got less votes than biden.

Every 4 years the same stuff happens, and yet every 4 years there is a so called "paradigm shift" or "rubicon crossed", when actually, nothing has really changed. It's getting really cringe and predictable.

major505 2 hours ago [-]
US is the old democracy in the world. I live in brazil and there a bunch of reporters histeric people here assuming US will be a dictatorshio soon. Bitch, we where a dictatorship like 35 years ago, Time to worry about our own problems here.
major505 2 hours ago [-]
yeah man, us is not Brazil. This shit dont fly there. You americans are to worried when your institutions are way more solid than the resto of other democracies around the world. If he wanted to performe a coup, he had 4 years for that already,

Just stop being stuborn, start thinking about solving us real problems, and not demonizing the other party, and maybe the democrats will have a chance in the next election.

realusername 2 hours ago [-]
> If he wanted to performe a coup, he had 4 years for that already

He already tried to perform a coup and failed, I don't see why he wouldn't try again

major505 2 hours ago [-]
mandm that capitol thing is a weekend where I live. That was a case of mass histeria.

Just a bunch of morons who went too hard on the joke.

realusername 2 hours ago [-]
They didn't look to come for fun during that coup, they looked pretty serious.
major505 2 hours ago [-]
> They didn't look to come for fun during that coup, they looked pretty serious.

They wherent even armed... what a shit coup.

realusername 2 hours ago [-]
"They were not really clever" isn't a good moral defense against a coup isn't it, even if it's true.
miningape 2 hours ago [-]
He literally didn't, it was a minority of his supporters who he specifically told to be peaceful and respectful. I'm so sick of seeing this lie shat out by everyone who's been manipulated by dem propaganda.

I don't support Trump. I can't vote in any country. I have no horses in this race, but seeing the lies and propaganda (from both sides) actually working is insane - the propaganda isn't even that good guys.

realusername 2 hours ago [-]
He claimed that the election was stolen and provoked the event, he knew his supporter base.

I also don't have a horse in the race, I'm not american and this is me exposing some of the lies around his presidency. He did it once and he will do it again. I don't see why I should belive that he somehow changed.

The media coverage around this guy is so insane that he can do whatever he wants and you'll still have people who will deny it.

major505 2 hours ago [-]
Well, be assured, the rest the world see the fact that americans vote via mail and dont demand id cards to vote as a joke.
TrackerFF 2 hours ago [-]
He tried, but Mike Pence wasn't onboard with his plans. Mike Pence was literally the safeguard to democracy.

Trump has learned from his previous presidency, though. This time there will only be yes-men that show absolute loyalty.

bilvar 2 hours ago [-]
And another 4 years of mass hysteria begins with this post
major505 2 hours ago [-]
I sure will watch MSNBC news today.
major505 2 hours ago [-]
REmember the lady screaming the sky in Trump inauguration? That gave us 8 years of amazing memes.
antback 36 minutes ago [-]
As a European, I’m trying to see the positive side of this situation. Here are a few thoughts:

- It appears that Democrats are often seen as part of an "elite," which makes it difficult for people at home to relate to or understand their message. A full reset might be needed to bridge this gap.

- Europe has long been under the shadow of the United States. Perhaps this could be a good start toward greater independence for Europe.

ossobuco 28 minutes ago [-]
The end of the war in Ukraine suddenly got much closer. What's more positive than that for any European? I know it's positive for me.
tralarpa 17 minutes ago [-]
Ossobuco, the Italien defender of (checking their comment history) Russia, the Cuban government, the Iranian government,... (probably something else but I stopped checking)
ossobuco 15 minutes ago [-]
Yes, the proud Italian defender of world peace and cooperation. What do you defend?
preisschild 13 minutes ago [-]
Wanting "World peace" alone is dumb. Imagine if everybody just let the Nazis win WW2 to avoid wars.
ossobuco 9 minutes ago [-]
That's a false analogy. We're not fighting the Nazis, and Russia has no intention of dominating the world. If waging war was enough to be like the Nazis, I believe the USA got there a long time ago.
rob_c 6 minutes ago [-]
and wanting to fight over nothing is worse unfortunately, it's not even principled it's just arrogance
bagels 7 minutes ago [-]
End of war in Ukraine, start of war in Poland?
piiritaja 21 minutes ago [-]
The end of the war on Russia's terms is not positive for any European.
ossobuco 18 minutes ago [-]
I disagree. Hopefully we're still in time to resume relations with Russia. The only way to European safety is to bring Russia into the EU, not to make them an enemy.
tekkk 8 minutes ago [-]
Lol. Yeah well if we are willing to trade our last shreds of integrity and capitulate that dictatorship is the winning strategy then sure. I mean, not to bring WW2 in the discussion, but back in that time people thought giving them what they want would lead to peace.

These things also span decades or centuries so I think there will be time when Russia and the West will be closer again. It's just they have to stop their imperialism and grabbing land. Think they have enough already.

spiderfarmer 17 minutes ago [-]
Yeah right, no sane person in the EU wants to be in any union with those thugs.
ossobuco 14 minutes ago [-]
I do! I'd much rather see that than a general war with Russia, thank you.

Only the insane believe this war could end in anything but extinction or decades of misery and conflict.

Tade0 1 minutes ago [-]
They're large by territory, but small in terms of economy. Russians put a lot of weight on the former, but it's not very relevant in this day and age, especially considering how uninhabitable a huge chunk of it is.

In any case, I'm surprised this is an issue for you, considering this war revealed how inept Russia's military actually is.

spiderfarmer 2 minutes ago [-]
I never felt the need to become friends with the biggest bully in high school. Why start now?
rob_c 8 minutes ago [-]
OK, so we fight until there's nobody left alive for what exactly?

Most of the Russian proposed peace plans are basically. "Leave it alone and stop fighting".

Hardly the demand of Kiev on a silver platter and would save a lot of resoruces/lives.

Is Ukranian pride worth it's economic destruction, worth lining the pockets of the war merchants or worth the continued spiraling death toll?

It's a little less David vs Goliath and more aknin to Davids little cousin tommy with a waterpistol vs a flame thrower...

spiderfarmer 18 minutes ago [-]
We simply don’t believe there’s a positive scenario for Ukraine in sight.
rob_c 17 minutes ago [-]
I can't understand how someone can downvote war ending as a bad thing, but hey...

On a humanitarian angle, Harris would have almost certainly meant the end of another war in another region that has a higher humanitarian cost.

My question at this point being very strongly, if America has the power to end these wars... Why are they then still going on?

agumonkey 22 minutes ago [-]
Are there actual efforts or will to make a stronger Europe? Honest question
bigodbiel 30 minutes ago [-]
There is no positive for Europe. Only bad to worse. Globalization is dead. In Africa hunger and mass migration to Europe. Europe needs to militarize: Defense budget >5%, deportations, conscription, nukes and a fully functional independent army against expansionist Russia who now will have Trump's acquiesence. America must be seen as possible enemy. I am not being hyperbolic. It's parabellum.
antback 16 minutes ago [-]
But that’s precisely the point. If there are new adversaries, new obstacles, it’s essential to work toward becoming stronger, more independent, more prepared and building greater unity among states.

I agree with you, things are looking bad... Today, I'm just trying to be positive. Tomorrow, maybe not ...

preisschild 14 minutes ago [-]
> Europe has long been under the shadow of the United States. Perhaps this could be a good start toward greater independence for Europe.

I wish this were true for so long, but so far we have seen nothing. Not even Draghis recommendations were really introduced.

pjerem 20 minutes ago [-]
Europe did (mostly) nothing during and after the previous Trump presidency. I don’t see how it could be different.

And it’s not like Europe was currently in a good state politically speaking.

spiderfarmer 15 minutes ago [-]
There were a couple of moderately sane people around him during his first term. There will be less of them this time around.
sAbakumoff 27 minutes ago [-]
For me, the most positive outcome is the EUR to USD exchange rate. It's gonna be at least 1:1 pretty soon.
maxehmookau 31 minutes ago [-]
Right-wing demagogues have been playing this game for years. Imagine being the party of billionaires and pointing to the other side and shouting "elites!"

I've never understood it, but it's an impressive party trick.

bigodbiel 30 minutes ago [-]
It worked. Putin now is on top. And Europe must prepare. America now will be hostile.
krypgeen 1 hours ago [-]
Not my circus, not my monkeys.
apexalpha 1 hours ago [-]
Not super worried from a European perspective, it might even spur on some cooperation in our own union, which I support.

Just a bit nervous for Ukraine... I wish Europe could step up on that front but we just don't have the capacity for it. Which is entirely our own fault, Trump is right to call us out on our reliance on the US. It's our continent we should be the one spearheading this.

Hopefully that will change in the near future. But that doesn't help Ukraine now.

The democrats need to do some serious introspection on their policies and priorities. And perhaps just return to running a white male as candidate...

Oh well at least it's a very clear victory, so no weeks or months of anxiety over the results.

dgellow 35 minutes ago [-]
The US leaving NATO would be terrible for Europe. Ukraine is very likely fucked with that result. I’m European and extremely worried.
piiritaja 9 minutes ago [-]
Should not have to worry about US pulling out of NATO. Trump is stupid, but even he realizes that it would not benefit US in a any way. Significantly reducing funding might happen, but hopefully that will make EU countries increase their defense spendings as a reaction.
jltsiren 38 minutes ago [-]
Trump is wrong in that. Europe relies on the US, because the American world order is built that way. That's what the US has traditionally wanted. They are the hegemon that maintains the world order and pays for it. Europe usually supports the US, both for ideological reasons and because it benefits from the American world order.

But if the US is no longer committed to their world order, I can see the return of a more selfish Europe. One that is willing to work with both the US and BRICS and does not automatically favor either.

ossobuco 24 minutes ago [-]
> Just a bit nervous for Ukraine...

> The democrats need to do some serious introspection on their policies and priorities. And perhaps just return to running a white male as candidate...

Considering that one of the main points of Trump's campaign was a swift end to Ukraine's war, and considering the large vote margin by which he won, I believe the lesson the democrats should learn is that most USAers don't want the USA to be involved in foreign wars.

By definition the democratic party should be able to read the population, right?

doublerabbit 1 hours ago [-]
From the British side of things, we are now a ballistics rag doll.

We had Brexit, a catastrophe in itself. And with that we've sold ourselves to the US for "alliance" means; meaning that we will be dragged through everything the US wants.

When we were tied to the EU, at least we had a some sort solidarity.

Yaina 1 hours ago [-]
I'd be nice if the EU would step up and become more self sufficient with Trump in the White House.

Though I am nervous. I think Trump could still do us a lot of harm.

doublerabbit 39 minutes ago [-]
The EU was holding world peace. This destabilisation is in part caused by America.

Iraq, war on oil. Isreal funded by US arms

Russia owns Trump and Russia wants the EU dead.

By no means should the EU get cosy with the US.

Why shouldn't the US get cosy with the EU?

gg82 12 minutes ago [-]
Why would Russia want the EU dead. They were selling 10's of billions of dollars of oil and gas to it each year. Russia is however a bit paranoid about its own security, having being invaded numerous times over the centuries and wants to keep control of its own economic destiny.

Provide a way where security of both Europe and Russia can be provided for and peace will quickly follow.

akmarinov 1 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
joelthelion 1 hours ago [-]
Taiwan being abandoned to its mainland neighbor, maybe?
skandinaff 1 hours ago [-]
But what about all the semiconductor industry that US companies, esp now with AI advancement rely on so heavily?
archagon 1 hours ago [-]
Trump will make a deal with Xi to give him access to the industry post-takeover.
kragen 1 hours ago [-]
He won't need one, because Taiwan's semiconductor industry will be destroyed during the takeover and require a decade or more to rebuild.
polotics 1 hours ago [-]
"make" => "try to and fail", as some people are harder to maneuver than, it seems, the American public
michaelt 1 hours ago [-]
The UK thought they had a 50 year agreement with China to guaratee Hong Kong's democracy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-British_Joint_Declaration

Turns out if the other country decides they are altering the deal, and you don't have any leverage - the bit of paper isn't worth all that much in practice.

Would you repeat the same feat with Taiwan, if you were in Trump's place?

pineaux 1 hours ago [-]
Nah
arethuza 1 hours ago [-]
If Ukraine falls then the Baltics will be next - I can see Poland, France and the UK attempting to help but I suspect this would ultimately fail leading to the breakup of NATO. EU either breaks up or becomes much stronger...
snickerbockers 50 minutes ago [-]
There's a huge difference between invading a NATO member and invading a non-NATO member. And ultimately I don't think Russia has the capability to continue invading more countries with or without the US' opposition, this war has been a nonstop embarrassment for them.

If Poland France and the UK are more invested in opposing Russia then one would think that the Ukraine wouldn't be entirely reliant on the US to support it. This is the fundamental problem with the proxy war in the Ukraine, the people pushing for it talk about it as if the fate of the European continent rests on the fulcrum of the Ukraine and yet the other European countries hardly seem to care.

arethuza 14 minutes ago [-]
"There's a huge difference between invading a NATO member and invading a non-NATO member."

In practise, doesn't that depend on what the US decides?

kitd 1 hours ago [-]
Moldova first. The Kremlin have already refused to recognise the new pro-EU leader, and they've been making noises about Transnistria for a while (a similar situation to Crimea and East Ukraine).
akmarinov 1 hours ago [-]
It'll take multiple years for Russia to recover and have the means to target the Baltics, by then Putin will likely kick the bucket, as he's getting up there in years and who knows what the succession would look like.
FridgeSeal 1 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
1 hours ago [-]
drexlspivey 1 hours ago [-]
- Anti abortion law possibly being implemented on a federal level

Curious what do you base that on?

akmarinov 1 hours ago [-]
Isn't this a tentpole Republican/MAGA desire?

Why overturn Roe otherwise?

Why not implement it now when they'll control all branches of government and have a 6-3 favor in the supreme court?

miningape 1 hours ago [-]
> Isn't this a tentpole Republican/MAGA desire?

No, it's not.

> Why overturn Roe otherwise?

To let states decide how it should be handled, rather than a federal mandate. Allowing different possibilities to be tested - maybe in some states it will become completely illegal, maybe in others mothers will face pressure to terminate a pregnancy.

amarcheschi 1 hours ago [-]
I hope you don't really think that being pro choice is about pressuring woman to terminate pregnancies.

Why do I think that's much more probable for abortion to become illegal than for women to be pressured to terminate pregnancies?

Your comment feels so innocent, but different possibilities to be tested just ends up in women being denied abortion

miningape 59 minutes ago [-]
I think it's about as likely as it becoming illegal. There's too many good reasons to keep abortions even in a restricted state - even though it does open up a very messy moral can of worms.
amarcheschi 57 minutes ago [-]
There already are states where abortion is very restricted or illegal. There aren't states where terminating pregnancies is forced
miningape 51 minutes ago [-]
Forgive my ignorance but I didn't realise there were states it was illegal in.

> There aren't states where terminating pregnancies is forced.

I personally don't think this could ever come from a mandated level (same as outright bans), I think instead we see it in the form of social pressure: and we can already see it across the US. An estimated 65% of abortions in the US are unwanted but the mother was heavily pressured by peers, family, work, etc. You can also see this in the downstream effects: getting an abortion raises your chances of suicide by 6x and depression by 4x.

Clinics also do not screen for coersion, the same way organ donations, adoptions, loans are all screened.

Again, should abortion be illegal because of the above? No. But it does indicate it's not as innocent as making sure women are ready/able/willing to have a child.

amarcheschi 40 minutes ago [-]
The only sources I can find about what you're saying is gutter something and lozier Institute, and by searching for them a bit it looks like they're catholic founded research. I'm gonna take what they say with a huge pinch of salt

I'm gonna trust more a study by the university of San Francisco which finds that most women don't regret having an abortion or are happy about it https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/01/416421/five-years-after-ab...

akmarinov 56 minutes ago [-]
> To let states decide how it should be handled

If that's the case - why are states criminalizing getting an abortion in another state?

Some states decide for all states, that's the sort of thing that has to be decided on a federal level

indigo0086 59 minutes ago [-]
Ballots across the country voted on various degrees of abortion and passed.
miningape 1 hours ago [-]
Fear, rage, and entitlement. Trump has been very clear he just doesn't want it regulated at a federal level.
boesboes 1 hours ago [-]
He has also been very clear he wants to imprison his opponents and violently deal with immigrants. What should we believe?
miningape 1 hours ago [-]
> He has also been very clear he wants to imprison his opponents

When? He's gone out of his way to *not* imprison his opponents. Why do you think Hillary is still running around?

> violently deal with immigrants

*Illegal Immigrants

Not so sure about the violent part either, but let's just say that that's true.

treyd 1 hours ago [-]
Yet all the people he associates with do. I wonder what the most likely outcome from that might involve...
whoitwas 1 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
maratc 1 hours ago [-]
I’m old enough to remember 2016 elections and the “rip usa we are doomed” predictions then. The fact is, we were ok that time, it’s gonna be ok this time too.
gwd 56 minutes ago [-]
> The fact is, we were ok that time, it’s gonna be ok this time too.

Trump has always wanted to be a tyrant; he has always wanted to run the country like he runs his businesses -- he says something and it's done, he makes decisions for his own personal benefit, he rewards his friends and punishes his enemies.

In 2016 he wasn't expecting to win and didn't really know what he wanted, so he appointed well-respected people from the Republican establishment. Those people believed in the constitution, the rule of law, the rules-based international order, and so on, and pushed back and refused to obey him when he wanted to act like a tyrant.

This time is different. He knows what he wants: People who will be personally loyal to him. The Republican establishment has been destroyed. The Supreme Court has officially decreed that nearly anything he does is immune from prosecution. He will have a much easier time getting his way this time than he did in 2016.

vundercind 1 hours ago [-]
We ratcheted several notches farther toward high-level corruption being normal—multiple family members in high level positions, no divestment from direct control of business interests—Carter gave up control of a peanut farm to be president because to do otherwise would have been unacceptable, that’s how much has changed. Even on just that front it was extremely damaging, and that’s one thing.
toombowoombo 1 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
whoitwas 1 hours ago [-]
Complete chaos. Retribution. Whatever the goon encounters. RIP USA
mondrian 30 minutes ago [-]
The US is currently in proxy war with Russia on two fronts: Ukraine and Israel/Iran. Conceding Ukraine would help Iran, which is probably not what Israel wants. The idea that Trump would be friendly to Putin -- lift sanctions, give him Ukraine -- seems like a strategical contradiction.
akmarinov 9 minutes ago [-]
Sadly, he's never indicated anything to the contrary
BigToach 1 hours ago [-]
RFK Jr. in charge of or heavily influencing FDA and other health related policy. Dismantling the Department of Education Mass deportations Tariffs
ra7 59 minutes ago [-]
Quite possibly the most devastating thing for the country, if he follows through on the crazy health policies. It will be felt for decades.
mlnj 1 hours ago [-]
Ooooh, that's gonna be real interesting to see. An anti-vaxxer in charge of healthcare.

Taking fluoride away from drinking water. Weakening vaccine research and development.

Looks like most Americans will be in for a long suffering in the coming decades. Combine that with privatisation of health insurance and weakening Medicaid, this heavily points towards a Brexit moment for the USA.

acje 1 hours ago [-]
My biggest fear is that Trumps deterrence of CRINK countries will cause XI to miscalculate. Other than that I think this is manageable. EU will get a boost as the internal awakening materializes. As an European I had difficulty understanding why Trump was even an alternative, but I have come to realize that the Plutocratic nature of the US was causing more suffering for the people than was easily observed from here.
guerrilla 1 hours ago [-]
You forgot trade war against Europe and China. Also, if economists and investors are right, massive inflation. I also personally predict total war with Iran, directly or indirectly.
vdvsvwvwvwvwv 1 hours ago [-]
Sadly neither candidate was going to substantively stick up for Gazan citizens. I just hope Trump's wildcardness spins the geopolitical roulette wheel to land on peace.
1 hours ago [-]
_ink_ 1 hours ago [-]
If the US drops support of Ukraine Putin might try to take Kyjiw again.
Aeolun 1 hours ago [-]
I kinda expect the EU to go collective defense if the US pulls out, to see if the US can still be trusted to honor its words, of if they have to write it off entirely (honestly, they should have done that before, but…)
akmarinov 1 hours ago [-]
I don't see that.

Netherlands, Austria predominantly leaning right now, joining Hungary, Slovakia.

Germany and France are both with very unstable governments.

Pretty much leaves Poland and the Baltics

rightbyte 1 hours ago [-]
I don't think they see an unilateral suicide as more tempting than a bilateral suicide.
konart 1 hours ago [-]
>pull out of Kursk

This is happening any week now with or without Trump.

iamben 1 hours ago [-]
Mainstream (safe!) vaccine scepticism?
1 hours ago [-]
archagon 1 hours ago [-]
[dead]
ray023 43 minutes ago [-]
[dead]
YetAnotherNick 1 hours ago [-]
Is there any reason or source to anything you said, or just saying because you hate him. Specially regarding the last one, he clearly mentioned that he is against that.

I am as much against Trump as the next guy, but let's don't degrade HN conversations to this level.

georgeplusplus 1 hours ago [-]
You’re missing a lot. War is not good and signing peace deals is not a bad thing.

Dems lost this election because they’ve become the party of warmongerers. You need to understand that played a big role.

lobsterthief 1 hours ago [-]
Signing peace deals to give over lands stolen by Russia is a good thing?
munksbeer 1 hours ago [-]
> War is not good and signing peace deals is not a bad thing.

If Russia invades Alaska, do you think the average Republican will take the same sentiment? Just give him that land because otherwise lots of people will die.

gwd 1 hours ago [-]
> War is not good and signing peace deals is not a bad thing.

The logical conclusion of this is that we should always just surrender whenever some other army comes knocking at our door. Let Putin walk all the way to Portugal, let Kim Jong Un walk to the south tip of the Korean peninsula, because any peace deal, no matter how bad, is always better than firing a single shot.

Putin invaded Crimea and then said "I'm done". Then by proxy he invaded the Donbas, and said "I'm done". Then he invaded Ukraine. Why do you think that if we sign a peace deal with him, that he just won't build up his forces in another year or two and invade again -- either Ukraine, or one of the other Baltic countries?

At some point you have to say, "It stops here".

EDIT: Furthermore, you have to think of the knock-on effects. If we settle now in Ukraine, that won't stop war with Russia: Putin has learned that invading your neighbor is fine, and he'll do it again and again. Xi and Kim will learn the same thing, and there will be wars in Taiwan and Korea.

On the other hand, Russia is almost defeated -- another 2 years and they'll be completely out of materiel. They're already resorting to pulling in North Korean troops. Support Ukraine for another year or two, and the war will end for good -- and Xi and Kim will learn that invading your neighbor is a losing proposition, and war in Taiwan and Korea will be avoided.

> You need to understand that played a big role.

Do you have any support for this statement? I haven't heard many people bring up Ukraine as a major reason for voting Trump or not voting Harris.

Ironically, there were Arabs and progressives who failed to support Harris because she supported Israel too much, and there are Zionist Jews and Christians who support Trump because they think Kamala didn't support Israel enough. On that particular conflict I don't think there's any winning position for the Democrats.

georgeplusplus 38 minutes ago [-]
>>>Do you have any support for this statement? I haven't heard many people bring up Ukraine as a major reason for voting Trump or not voting Harris.

Its a bad look when many citizens are hurting economically and you send billions and billions to a foreign government and then gaslight them the economy is indeed fine.

iinnPP 1 hours ago [-]
This doesn't get enough mention.
wezdog1 1 hours ago [-]
Assuming you are not dealing with despots who will strike again.
a_dabbler 1 hours ago [-]
You need to read the basic outline of WW2.
uxp100 1 hours ago [-]
I don’t completely disagree with you (I mean, I mostly do, just not completely) but do you have reason to think the hawkishness of the Biden administration (a lot of which was inherited from the hawkish first trump administration) really influenced people? Like polls, or even surprising anecdotes?

Americans mostly don’t seem to care about foreign policy at all.

georgeplusplus 52 minutes ago [-]
No we do get it. It’s these modern democrats that are so disconnected from the reality of the American people which is why they lost huge in this election across all racial and demographic lines. Look at NY how does it get that close?

The American people cried that the economy was bad for them and the democrat message was no it’s better than ever.

The American people said why are we sending billions to Ukraine when we need the money here. They were told we were supporting dictatorships. Just look at some of the responses to my comment here.

The American voter was concerned about the huge crime waves in the cities and the biden admin told us crime was good and made up.

The Democrat response to COVId was to shut up and take the vaccine or lose your job.

I’m surprised she didn’t lose more with all the pain biden Harris caused.

mib32 1 hours ago [-]
So you would prefer a couple of hundreds more soldiers dead, rather than signing lands over to Russia with zero casualties? You're weird.
amarcheschi 1 hours ago [-]
Us is not involved with boots on the ground. Now, try to imagine what you just said, but shift it to your country being invaded and imagine being told you're weird because you want soldiers to defend your motherland rather than giving away land
Yizahi 16 minutes ago [-]
We would prefer less soldiers dying today than more soldiers and civilians dying in a year, after ruzzia recovers, restocks and attacks again.
trymas 1 hours ago [-]
How naive of you to think that native Ukrainians stuck under ruzzian occupation won’t become casualties after such “deal”.
lobsterthief 1 hours ago [-]
Would you be okay signing over your country’s lands to Russia right now? Assuming you aren’t in Russia already.
dghughes 1 hours ago [-]
Would the US give up Alaska if Russia attacked from Siberia? I'd say the US wouldn't. Ukraine has more support from EU countries who I think will step up more now that the US has become a Nazi theocratic state.
lawn 1 hours ago [-]
If you stop and think a little longer you should realize that if you give after to Russia you prove that aggression works.

And now they'll get to rebuild their military to attack Ukraine again, or maybe another country, leading to many more civilian deaths.

Russian apologists are not just weird, they're dangerous.

miroljub 1 hours ago [-]
> If you stop and think a little longer you should realize that if you give after to Russia you prove that aggression works.

It's already proven that it works for the USA. Why shouldn't it work for Russia? Except, at least in this case it's not aggression.

> And now they'll get to rebuild their military to attack Ukraine again, or maybe another country, leading to many more civilian deaths.

You mean like USA does all the time.

> Russian apologists are not just weird, they're dangerous.

USA apologists are even weirder.

Paradigma11 5 minutes ago [-]
Russia is waging a war of conquest to annex its former colonies and restore its empire. There is zero reason to believe this will stop unless it is stopped.
haunter 3 hours ago [-]
How did polls go so wrong? “gold standard” Ann Selzer predicted +3 Harris in Iowa and it became +14 Trump. That’s an incredible miss from a pollster.
sexy_seedbox 55 minutes ago [-]
Congrats Melania!
gtvwill 1 hours ago [-]
Rip America. China and russia are gonna love this.

Astounding they have elected a literal criminal as a president. Bonkers even.

Spacemolte 51 minutes ago [-]
"America first" (read: "Trump first"). It is going to be interesting to see all the different ways that guy is going to enrich himself and businesses, again..
aucisson_masque 3 hours ago [-]
Is there some statistical analysis on the reason people vote trump ? I refuse to believe the narrative that Americans are just a bunch of redneck retarded bigots.

Tried to Google it but all I find is a bunch of American news website like CNN and website like https://www.voterstudygroup.org/publication/the-five-types-t...

I'm trying to look beyond the propaganda, any idea if there has been scientific studies or anything remotely credible ?

sensanaty 3 hours ago [-]
You ever stop to think that maybe calling ~50% of the population of your country "a bunch of redneck retarded bigots" could perhaps have some part in it? The media pushing that narrative everywhere certainly doesn't help either.

I'm not a Yank nor do I vote or care to ever vote, but if I were and all I ever saw was every mainstream source of news and media, including sites like Reddit and apparently even HN, calling me a retard (which funnily enough is a pretty bigoted insult coming from the supposed moral & good side) and a bigot non-stop I'd probably say "fuck it" and vote for the guy too.

From where I'm sitting across the pond, the Republicans want stricter border control, smaller government, lower taxes, free speech (which itself is a loaded term that means different things depending on who's saying/hearing it), which is basically what the populist parties across the EU are promising as well.

miningape 3 hours ago [-]
Yep exactly, this is what won him the 2016 election and the meltdowns were amazing. This time around the dems have also had the economy making them look bad, not to mention the illegal immigration issue finally making it to "big blue" cities like New York.

So it's not really surprising he won, and the margin isn't surprising either.

josephg 2 hours ago [-]
The us economy has grown at an unprecedented rate over the last few years. I wish my home of Australia had such a dynamic economy.

(I suspect the problem, of course, is that the newfound prosperity is not shared evenly amongst the population.)

DiscourseFan 2 hours ago [-]
You suspect correctly. Its been a great economy for yuppies with college degrees, not so much for everyone else. And everyone else is the majority.
Spivak 6 minutes ago [-]
I suppose but I'm not really sure if the GOP has anything on offer that will actually help. I hope they do because we're gonna be living in it but nothing thus far proposed has been said to be good for the economy.
jeffhuys 1 hours ago [-]
It's also the (trying to be) misleading mainstream media. Stuff like "he wants to deport all immigrants" being uttered until the last day - without specifying it's just the illegal ones, which is a very important distinction.

And there are many examples like these, where he's quoted WAY out of context, and that kind of stuff. If you believe that for years and at one point learn that it's actually bs and he didn't say that or the context reveals he was quoting someone else, or negates the comment the next sentence, etc, you start to question ALL your beliefs.

They pushed too far, fabricated just a BIT too much, and people caught on.

dartharva 3 hours ago [-]
> You ever stop to think that maybe calling ~50% of the population of your country "a bunch of redneck retarded bigots" could perhaps have some part in it? The media pushing that narrative everywhere certainly doesn't help either.

Yep, it's an own goal. Similar shit has led to the rise of right-wing populism all across the world, time and again. Yet they never learn. They never realize that shitting on the average Joe is not how you get power in a democratic setup.

j-krieger 2 hours ago [-]
Turns out, the average Joe is a poor, working dude. He is not a sexist colonialist or any other -ism. Yet the Democratic Party will not stop alienating men.
GaryNumanVevo 2 hours ago [-]
those people don't care, in fact they embrace the identity
ziml77 2 hours ago [-]
Namecalling and shit slinging is exactly what Trump and his supporters do and it seems to work out well for them. They love thinking about people crying over their insults and whatnot. But they also complain loudly if anyone turns the same against them.
baq 3 hours ago [-]
the redneck bigots have no issues calling the other side communists, liars, traitors etc., it's just expected of redneck bigots, so nobody cares.

this is regardless of whether the redneck bigots are in rural Kentucky or rural Bulgaria.

zpeti 2 hours ago [-]
> the redneck bigots have no issues calling the other side communists, liars, traitors etc

The other side calls themselves socialists, some of them are proudly communists. This isn't a slur, this is literally what many on the left call themselves. The right don't think of themselves as bigots, they just want less immigration. (You might think that's bigoted)

schwartzworld 2 hours ago [-]
The democrats are not socialist and they don’t call themselves that. Socialists may or may not cast a D vote, but if they do it’s a monumental compromise.

The Dems are terrified of accidentally seeming too left. Republicans have no problem embracing the more extreme right, whereas Dems would rather cowtow to the imaginary swing voter and lose than get called the S word.

baq 2 hours ago [-]
Every far left extremist (which have no clue what communism even means) has an analogous far right extremist (who also have no clue what it actually means), both are idiots and shouldn't be let anywhere near government.

Admittedly the US had a choice between someone unfit for office and a lawfully convicted felon, I don't envy this situation.

Spivak 2 minutes ago [-]
What? Kamala would have done great, where is this coming from? Trump for better or worse is about to get Weekend at Bernie'd by his cabinet just like Biden did.
lewispollard 2 hours ago [-]
Some on the left are proudly socialist or communist, and some on the right are proudly bigoted.
Cthulhu_ 2 hours ago [-]
It's not 50% though; in 2020, only ~240 million people were eligible to vote (out of 330 million, so about 72% of people); only ~158 million people actualy voted (48%). Oversimplifying, only 25% of the population of the US voted for Trump, and it's probably even less due to the system of electors.

This is why democracy is broken, because not everyone gets a voice.

s0fa37 1 hours ago [-]
I've never understood this argument. When performing scientific studies, there is a sample size of n = x hundred/thousand, and we then generalise the result across the entire population. Having 48% of the population participate in this "study" is likely to be very indicative of the likely voting choice for the remainder of the population, right? You really think that the proportion of votes for each party for those people that haven't voted would be any significant difference from those that did?
wezdog1 15 minutes ago [-]
You're assuming the population is homogeneous
fastasucan 3 hours ago [-]
After seeing this guy become elected for the second time I have come to the opposite conclusion. This is what America wants, and this is what America is. The rest of the world should acknowledge this and act accordingly, and the people of the US, especially the Democrats, should as well.

Pretending like "this isn't us", "this isnt real america" is just keeping them from doing any real introspection.

adamors 3 hours ago [-]
No, urban areas voted Democrat once again. If anything, 2024 has really showed the widening divide between urban and rural areas, both in the US and in Europe. Probably everywhere else as well.
agent86 2 hours ago [-]
While it is true that democrats carried urban centers it is worth noting that their support appears to have eroded somewhat in these areas. Republicans picked up a statistically relevant number of votes there.
ziml77 2 hours ago [-]
If I were a betting man I'd wager that switches like that are purely due to inflation. Shit's too expensive and people think that changing the party they vote into the seat of the presidency is going to change that.
e40 32 minutes ago [-]
Which is incredibly stupid given Elon just said in the last month that Trump’s policies would cause inflation.
ravroid 3 hours ago [-]
Important to note that it's not what all of us Americans want, it's just what a little over half of the voting population voted for.
tomrod 3 hours ago [-]
Half the voting population who chose to vote voted for.
dartharva 3 hours ago [-]
"A little over half of the voting population" is literally all that matters here! The levels of cope here are astounding.
josephg 2 hours ago [-]
It’s all that matters in the presidential race. But barely over half of the population wanted him as president. The other side doesn’t disappear just because they lost an election.
dennis_jeeves2 42 minutes ago [-]
Talk about really problems with 'democracy' where 51% decides decides to thrust their views on the rest 49% . The concept is fundamentally flawed.
justin66 2 hours ago [-]
> all that matters!

Some perspective is called for.

johndunne 3 hours ago [-]
I'm in the UK and I was just listening to Andrew Neil, a political commentator over here, and he mentioned something interesting. There was apparently a 3 to 2 ratio of Hispanic/Black voters voting FOR Trump. A possible explanation is that the border policies have had an impact on minimum wage workers, of which Hispanic and Black voters are disproportionately a category of. The Democratic Party will have to do a post mortem, but there's likely to be many issues found where the Democrats failed their voters.
TrackerFF 3 hours ago [-]
This is what rural USA wants.
trynumber9 3 hours ago [-]
What makes rural America so numerous?
gwd 3 hours ago [-]
They're not so numerous; due to the way the system is set up, they have outsized impact. Wyoming with 500k people has the same amount of influence in the Senate as California with 38 million people.

That said, so far she hasn't won the popular vote either, so that's not what we should be blaming in this election.

user90131313 2 hours ago [-]
My question is, why can't democrats see how bad and average intell. their candidate is? Trump can at least talk, give interviews and all. But other one???
throwaway314155 2 hours ago [-]
> But other one???

is not a sentence.

user90131313 2 hours ago [-]
OK.
ptman 3 hours ago [-]
It's not that it's numerous (it's not). It's that they have a lot weight because of how the electoral college works.
iainmerrick 2 hours ago [-]
I think you’re confusing the electoral college with the Senate.

There are two senators per state regardless of population, so low-population rural states have an outsized influence in the Senate.

In the electoral college, each state is weighted by population. It’s unavoidably biased (just by the nature of chunking votes into seats and states) but it doesn’t consistently favor either side.

geoffpado 1 hours ago [-]
Each state gets a number of electors equal to their Congressional delegation: Representatives *and* Senators. So the overweighting of small states in the Senate does, to a smaller degree, affect the Electoral College as well (as every state gets two "free" electors).
iainmerrick 48 minutes ago [-]
Good point! I overlooked that. On the other hand, the larger states having large bloc votes plays in their favor.
mportela 3 hours ago [-]
For one, the population is way more spread out in the US than in other countries. There are only 9 cities with more than 1 million people in a country of 350 million inhabitants.
jltsiren 2 hours ago [-]
Those are local administrative areas, not cities. Using any reasonable functional definition of a city, the number of cities with a population >1 million is around 50.
hughesjj 3 hours ago [-]
I think they just have a higher reproduction rate. Shorter generations and wider ones too.

Hell I'm from a rural family that voted majority trump. I'm a bud not a stem. I'm also 33 with no kids.

tstrimple 3 hours ago [-]
The electoral college for one. Massively oversized benefit, especially since the house size has been frozen. Basically every level of our government is designed to give small rural areas the advantage. It’s no wonder we are the only prosperous nation without universal healthcare and post secondary education. We give the people who contribute the least to our society free rein to run it.
Lanolderen 34 minutes ago [-]
I wouldn't say people in rural areas do the least for society.
bigstrat2003 2 hours ago [-]
No, basically every level of our country is designed to balance the voices of heavily populated areas with rural areas. It's completely ignorant of the history of our nation to claim it's intended to give rural areas an advantage, when in fact it is an attempt at compromise. And let's not forget: without that compromise our nation literally would not exist, as the large and small states wouldn't have come to an agreement otherwise.
truckerbill 3 hours ago [-]
electoral college
karmakurtisaani 3 hours ago [-]
In particular, I believe the economic rhetoric Trump used worked very well with many lower income people. I don't remember Harris taking any strong stances there, or maybe what she had I store was not communicated well.
bruxis 3 hours ago [-]
I think this is accurate, a big chunk of the vote seems to be "my bills/food/rent went up when Blue in office, Red says they _will_ fix it, so let's try Red"

Of course not statistical, but seems to be a large trend in discussion

iainmerrick 2 hours ago [-]
Yeah, I think that's it, or at least a large part of it. People were unhappy and when you're unhappy you vote out the incumbent (and in a two-party system there's only one other choice).

I also think that's the same reason the exact same guy was voted out four years ago. Pretty bizarre if true, so it's probably not the whole story.

Cthulhu_ 2 hours ago [-]
This is the challenge that the Democrats have; the Republicans have a policy that appeals to a significant enough percentage of the population, while the Democrats have to try and appeal to "everyone else". A two-party system is not a democracy, it's a compromise, and only a political revolution will fix it.

Of course, that's also what the Republicans / Heritage Foundation are aiming for, if they have their way they will do away with democracy. Which isn't exactly what I was thinking of.

j-krieger 2 hours ago [-]
Harris had no strong stances. At all. Her only one was "I'm not Trump". Which is kind of a loosing strategy when people seem to like him.
slater 59 minutes ago [-]
*losing
gebruikersnaam 3 hours ago [-]
Harris promised raising the minimum wage and down payment support for first-time buyers.

Americans (with the help of the media) are just plain stupid and vote against their own interests.

mrkeen 3 hours ago [-]
Promises from an incumbent can hit differently. If Democrats were willing and able, they should have done it in the last 4 years. If not, then why promise?
gebruikersnaam 2 hours ago [-]
The Biden administration did a lot of student debt relief.

But in the end that doesn't matter is the media isn't willing to talk about that. And people keep listening to those media.

Remember age didn't matter anymore once Biden dropped out? If the NYT hammered Trump the same way they did Biden, the outcome would be different.

LeChuck 3 hours ago [-]
See also this article from 2004:

http://exiledonline.com/we-the-spiteful/

>The left won’t accept this awful truth about the American soul, a beast that they believe they can fix “if only the people knew the Truth.”

>But what if the Truth is that Americans don’t want to know the Truth? What if Americans consciously choose lies over truth when given the chance–and not even very interesting lies, but rather the blandest, dumbest and meanest lies? What if Americans are not a likeable people? The left’s wires short-circuit when confronted with this terrible possibility; the right, on the other hand, warmly embraces Middle America’s rank soul and exploits it to their full advantage. The Republicans know Americans better than the left. They know that it’s not so much Goering’s famous “bigger lie” that works here, but the dumber and meaner the lie, the more the public wants to hear it repeated.

ziml77 2 hours ago [-]
Holy cow, 20 years later and it's all still accurate. You could swap some names and post it today.
Maken 2 hours ago [-]
This is quite bleak.
black_13 3 hours ago [-]
That us how i feel as well the US will finally get what it deserves.
benjaminwootton 3 hours ago [-]
Everyone is throwing ideas, excuses and explanations into the mix, but maybe people just want what he’s proposing - strict border control, low regulation, small government, low taxes, free speech etc.

Im not American and barely engaged with politics at all but all of that sounds like a pretty good idea to me without looking at any stats or trying to find out why my fellow citizens were confused into making the wrong choice.

anon22981 3 hours ago [-]
It isn’t about why his promises appeal to some people. The question is why people buy the ”free ice cream for all every day if I’m elected class president!” from a pedophile-rapist criminal. And instead of class presidency it’s real presidency.

I wouldn’t trust literally anything in this guys hands’ and even less a country.

Cthulhu_ 2 hours ago [-]
Except they're lies or false promises; low regulation is only for companies, allowing them to infringe on workers' rights, increase poverty, etc, which goes towards oligarchy. Small government means more power to less people, which goes towards autocracy. Low taxes means less money to social programs, which means people will literally die from being unable to afford health care, which is eugenics. Free speech for me but not for thee, it's Musk's flavour of free speech where words like "cis" are banned.

But sure, on the surface they sound good I suppose.

willvarfar 3 hours ago [-]
My take is that the democrats are being blamed for the ever higher cost of living.

There are people who vote because they want the insular America and to bring jobs back from China/Mexico/etc, those who vote to burn down 'the establishment' because they feel no hope, and those who just hope that any change means cost of living drops.

seb1204 3 hours ago [-]
Maybe I would like this too but there are still more steps to go to then believe that a proven liar will give it to them.
melodyogonna 3 hours ago [-]
If you use Twitter you would know. People hate the lackadaisical attitude to illegal immigration, the inflation in the economy, and the idealogy-centered government (yes, this has been a popular sore point).
tzs 2 hours ago [-]
Yet the Senate passed a bipartisan immigration bill earlier this year that basically had nearly everything Republicans asked for, and the House wouldn't even take it up because Trump didn't want to lose immigration as an issue.

And inflation is almost down to normal levels, and Trump is promising wide ranging and massive tariffs that it is hard to see not causing a significant rise in inflation.

So its hard to see how people who are concerned about those issues would vote for Trump.

Even if they don't like Democrat approaches to those issues, or really dislike Democrat ideology which might explain voting for Trump now when the only real choices were Trump and Harris, what about during the Republican primaries?

Republicans used to have many reasonably competent people in the primaries. How the heck could they not find anyone better than Trump?

x3ro 3 hours ago [-]
I find it hilarious when people say democrats are "idealogy-centered government" [sic], but Trump isn't. What do those words mean to you? Are you saying that Trump has no ideology?..
chaos_emergent 3 hours ago [-]
As someone who voted for Harris, I’d say trump is less ideologically driven than democratic candidates. He’s insane and erratic, which don’t follow ideology.
amarcheschi 3 hours ago [-]
Oh, he definitely has an ideology if you've ever read about project 2025
j-krieger 2 hours ago [-]
But he doesn't openly argue for that. And that's all politics is. Optics.
amarcheschi 2 hours ago [-]
Then Idk, he openly says that government agencies should have less power (epa, fda...). I mean, he doesn't sponsor this view, but he openly said he'll make musk give less and less agency to gov. Companies that aren't deemed worth of it, whatever it means
dartharva 2 hours ago [-]
> Are you saying that Trump has no ideology?..

It.. unironically seems so? Not long ago Trump used to be a Democrat. He has often backtracked and tweaked his public ideology to whatever gets the most populist support, e.g. Abortions.

lelanthran 3 hours ago [-]
> Are you saying that Trump has no ideology?..

Well, maybe he has, but he aligns his campaign to match the voters' will instead of trying to change the will of the voters' to match his campaign.

Dems: "Listen up: these are the issues that are important to you."

Trump: "That's important to you? Well, in that case it's important to me too!"

You can't expect to win if you are out of touch with what the voters want.

melodyogonna 2 hours ago [-]
I think this is it. Trump knows how to repeat what people say to themselves
zmgsabst 3 hours ago [-]
Generally, they mean promoting DIE rather than merit and national interest.
jyounker 3 hours ago [-]
Which of course actually means nothing. Being against DEI is just a coded way of saying, "we don't want to compete with women and non-white people".
medvezhenok 59 minutes ago [-]
Bullshit.

It’s framed as an equality movement whereas it takes as an axiom that society is built on systemic oppression - that’s the unquestionable tenet. And then the prescription is using governments power to impose “preferred” outcomes, no matter the cost.

Thanks, but no thanks - I prefer to live in a meritocracy.

Also my personal pet peeve - having a cultural preference is not racism, god damn it! Not all cultures are the same, and we should be allowed to state and fight for our preferences! (Unlike discriminating on the basis of physical appearance or features, which is actual racism).

The fact that America equates the two is asinine to me (as an immigrant)

stuaxo 3 hours ago [-]
Oligarchs owning most of the media has to be a factor in voting in all this.

(Why else would they own such "lossmaking" businesses).

sumo89 3 hours ago [-]
Not just generic oligarchs but specifically Fox.
cogman10 3 hours ago [-]
It really isn't just fox.

You especially see it if you pay attention to framing. On every mainstream platform, social issues are always first and foremost framed as "how can we afford this expensive social program!?!". It's always business friendly and worker hostile.

lawn 3 hours ago [-]
Have you read the New York Times, CNN, or Washington Post for instance?

It was a major deal that Biden's health was declining and he showed signs of dementia. But when Trump displays similar symptoms there's dead silence.

There's a consistent "sane washing" of the crazy things Trump says across nearly all media and the double standard is unreal.

amarcheschi 2 hours ago [-]
I swear that has been something that, as an European person, left me quite speechless. We've heard a lot about Biden mental situation, but nothing about the other guy struggling as well
pseudo0 2 hours ago [-]
He's nowhere near as bad as Biden. The media downplayed Biden's senility until the disastrous debate made it impossible. Americans got to see both candidates talk without a teleprompter for a couple hours, and Trump was able to handle it easily, while Biden exhibited clear signs of mental decline.

Trump has a rambling oratory style, but that is more of a stylistic affection.

lawn 1 hours ago [-]
Why deflect towards Biden?

The question isn't if he's better or worse than Biden, the question is if he's well enough for the presidency. And he's shown very clear signs of mental decline the last months.

Neither Trump nor Biden should have been chosen as candidates, yet all the focus has been on Biden.

imoverclocked 3 hours ago [-]
... and the network formerly known as Twitter.
hughesjj 2 hours ago [-]
You know, nothing gives me competence in my incompetence than seeing just how fucking successful Trump and Elon have been despite their lack of competence
southernplaces7 2 hours ago [-]
You mean the same majority of the major media outlets of all types that has been consistently hostile to Trump for many years?

If it's the oligarchs in the media who were a factor in this second victory, then it was through one truly spectacular mass-scale reverse psychology of getting exactly the opposite of the narrative they almost consistently pushed. That would be one very interesting story if it were at all true.

More realistically: to a very big (and apparently growing) swathe of the American voting public, the kind of shit that mattered most was what much of the media and their progressive political supporters in the major cities derided enough for all those millions of voters to dig in their heels and ignore them. Trump symbolically and often also literally, vocally represents this resistance to that media narrative, and thus he won again.

andrewinardeer 3 hours ago [-]
Musk, Bezos and Murdoch are three that come to mind. Two are legacy media. Between Fox and Washington Post that surely is not even half of the 'mainstream media'. What other oligarchs are there that I'm overlooking?
svara 3 hours ago [-]
If you have access to the Economist this selection of reader's letters in response to their endorsement of Harris is quite enlightening.

https://www.economist.com/letters/2024/11/04/letters-to-the-...

nosianu 3 hours ago [-]
I just did. Unfortunately I did not learn much. The first few letters were pro-Trump, but with for me unconvincing reasoning, I think OP asked for something better - and I read it because I too wanted to hear something with more substance. Most letters were even against Trump.

Most pro Trump arguments seem to be some vague statements about freedom of speech and "weaponizing of the Justice Department", which I find unconvincing given the things Trump said several times during the last few months, indicating he would do exactly that and worse.

The letters are as vague as this example:

> My concern is that Ms Harris will at a minimum continue the leftist direction of America that has been pursued, or at least tolerated, by Joe Biden. Not to mention the violation of basic constitutional rights that the president tried to introduce with his vaccine mandate during the pandemic.

or

> Mr Trump will cut bureaucracy and regulations to unleash creativity and productivity in the American economy, especially manufacturing. Ms Harris will inflict taxes and spending that will spur higher deficits and inflation.

or

> You overlooked the unacceptable risks posed by the Democratic Party and Vice-President Harris. These include support for censorship, political correctness, selective prosecution and soft totalitarianism. The Republicans spend more, impose tariffs, and obsess on immigration whereas the Democrats tax more, regulate more and censor. Neither party confronts the hard choices required to limit monetary expansion, deficits and entitlements that gnaw at the dollar. I choose the Republicans because I value freedom of speech and oppose the totalitarianism implied in weaponising the Justice Department.

and that's most of the pro-Trump statements already.

I have no doubt the arguments exist, and those I wanted to hear, because I too share OPs question.

svara 2 hours ago [-]
I think you're dismissing their points too easily.

You may think they're wrong, but I find it entirely plausible and convincing that that is just exactly what they believe.

nosianu 1 hours ago [-]
Wrong? I made no such statement! I was talking about the quality of the argument, not about the direction.

I'm not "dismissing" anything either. I have no opinion on Trump vs. Harris, as strange as that sounds to those with strong believes.

I merely observe that OP asked for arguments, and that link points to opinion letters that don't even attempt to make one. Which is fine for them - this is about this sub-thread's context. OP asked for arguments and the link does not provide them, this is not a dismissal of whatever is going on in that linked page itself, only whether it serves to satisfy OPs request here.

gwd 2 hours ago [-]
> My concern is that Ms Harris will at a minimum continue the leftist direction of America that has been pursued, or at least tolerated, by Joe Biden.

Well there's this sort of thing:

https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/colorado-baker-lose...

If you think there are plenty of places out there to get a wedding cake or a gender transition cake, and people should just leave people alone whom they disagree with, who do you vote for?

MaKey 3 hours ago [-]
Non-paywalled link: https://archive.is/QRAyX
n2d4 3 hours ago [-]
It's anecdotal, but the easiest way to understand them is to just travel to a conservative state and talk to them. Even if you won't agree, you'll see that they exist
rightbyte 3 hours ago [-]
Even in Harlem you'd probably don't have to walk more than 50 yards to talk to someone.

It is strange how there is this superficial notion that areas are 'Blu' or 'Red'.

delichon 3 hours ago [-]
In the bluest district of the bluest state you still don't have to leave the neighborhood to find them. And visa versa.
karmakurtisaani 3 hours ago [-]
To be fair, that is not easy in any practical sense of the word for most of us.
imoverclocked 3 hours ago [-]
I live outside the SF Bay Area in the hills. I'll vouch for the thought here.

Several of my neighbors wear Trump's mark.

lazyeye 3 hours ago [-]
lol...
bigstrat2003 2 hours ago [-]
And I would add, listen. Don't immediately check out mentally because you disagree with what they are saying, don't argue, simply listen and try to understand. It's really hard for humans to do, but it's important. You cannot hope to change minds or appeal to voters if you don't understand what motivates them in the first place.

And when I say you have to understand people I mean truly understand, not intellectually lazy crap like "oh they're just stupid" or "they're racist" like you already see in this thread. Stupid/racist/etc people do exist, but that isn't most people and it isn't most Trump voters either. They are normal people with real concerns and needs, not caricatures of evil.

gwd 2 hours ago [-]
I do try. The problem is, a lot of times what they're saying is just nonsense.

"The economy is terrible" -- well, no it's not. We had some inflation a few years ago, but so did every other country in the world, and the US has had far lower than most other places. The Biden administration has been doing a great job with the economy. And you know those business people who want Trump to win because they want lower regulations? Yeah, they're not on your side -- they're trying to screw you over. You feel economic pressure, and so you're going to vote someone who's going to make it worse?

"Libs are weaponizing the justice department" -- People who have flagrantly tried to flout laws and undermine our democracy need to be held accountable. I mean yeah, "Always prosecute the outgoing party" is something we want to avoid, but "Never prosecute anything any politician does" is just as bad, if not worse. And at any rate, if that's something you're actually concerned about, why is your solution to vote for "LOCK HER UP!" Trump?

"Biden / Harris are just as bad" -- I mean, no? Trump literally sent an armed mob to attack his own vice president. Nothing you think the alleged "Biden crime family" comes anywhere close (and BTW there is no "Biden crime family").

"Immigrant gangs are invading our country" -- I mean, just no.

Not everyone is like this, but a lot of people are just living in a fictional reality constructed by Fox, Newsmax, and now Musk.

thinkingemote 1 hours ago [-]
Try to listen to why they are saying these things. Find where you are similar not where you differ.

Often I have found the same fears, desires and hopes in my opponents as myself. For example: "I want my children to grow up happy"

From that level of similarity we can reach people. It takes effort.

justin66 2 hours ago [-]
Well that's all wrong. You don't need to travel to find a Trump voter. And merely talking to them is not going to be sufficient to truly "understand" them. If only.
thinkingemote 2 hours ago [-]
Talking to a person should be at least one thing to try to do to understand another person.

It's not wrong to try to understand another.

TrackerFF 3 hours ago [-]
Time and time again, polls have showed that "economy and inflation" was the leading cause. After that immigration.
seb1204 3 hours ago [-]
In school back then I learned about the American melting pot of people from everywhere. Is this no longer the case?
atoav 3 hours ago [-]
Yeah, but you have to be somewhat deranged to trust a multiple bancrupt and proven grifter with that — especially since the economic record of his last administration hasn't been stellar at all.

But if you are lucky he will allow you vote for the other side in 4 years again and then you will vote republicans after and back and forth we go.

loehnsberg 3 hours ago [-]
What‘s most striking is that a sober dialogue on opposing views/ideas has been replaced by partisanship and hatred of the othet side, whatever the subject. What do we need to do to get out of this mess?
mrweasel 3 hours ago [-]
A friend of mine just sent me an article from a Danish newspaper where they cover the reasons as to why people would want to vote for someone like Trump. They interview Arlie Russell Hochschild who has written two books on the topic: "Strangers in Their Own Land" and "Stolen Pride".

One explanation from Hochschild is that you have a group of disenfranchised votes, who see "everyone else" get to "jump the line" for help. Not only do they get to jump the line, they see the president (Obama back then) help these other people (immigrants, women, people of color, LGBTQ, an so on) move ahead of the line, while they are left behind to fend for themselves.

I haven't read the books yet, but I definitely plan to. From the article it certainly sound like it would help me understand why some Americans vote the way they do.

zmgsabst 3 hours ago [-]
Bigotry is unpopular with Americans.

Even if you claim it’s noble bigotry because you’re discriminating against people with evil ancestors or who happen to share a sex with bad people.

rendall 3 hours ago [-]
> "A friend of mine just sent me an article from a Danish newspaper where they cover the reasons as to why people would want to vote for someone like Trump...."

And this illustrates the problem. Hochschild is a professor emeritus of sociology at Berkeley. Why in heaven's name would you think that good insights will be garnered by reading a Danish article about a book written by a Blue professor about another group of Red people... when you can go on x dot com and read for yourself why people voted as they did?

I can say for certain - from reading and listening to what Trump voters have said themselves - that Trump voters are absolutely done with this kind of framing.

mrweasel 2 hours ago [-]
If your own political conviction influence your works as a professor, then you're perhaps not that great a professor, but if you do good work, then maybe you have the tools to write about that work and target it to a group of like minded people, communicating in a why that they/I better understand.

Personally I'm not interested in going on Twitter, or Facebook, because those are going to be the most extreme people, at both ends. I'm also no prepared to do the filtering required to identify trolls or propaganda. My interest is in the vast majority of people who don't really have a voice online. I can't go out and talk to them, I'm on the other side of the planet. I'd still like to know why they vote the way they do, because I'm directly affected by how rural America votes. I wish I weren't, so I guess that's one opinion I share with Trump.

rendall 2 hours ago [-]
As someone who has listened to both (or many, since there are not just two) sides, I can say for certain there is a severe disconnect between what Team Red says and what Team Blue writes about what Team Red says. If you are really interested in what Team Red says, do not listen to Team Blue at all about it. Not CNN, not Harris, not Blue politicians, not Blue journalists.

> If your own political conviction influence your works as a professor, then you're perhaps not that great a professor

Indeed. This is a major ongoing crisis in academe. And journalism.

As a self check, if you think that Trump's "very fine people on both sides" remark referred to white supremacists as "very fine people", then you need to upgrade your sources. Find the extended original video. It is hard to do! If you give up, let me know and I will send you a link. The search is instructive, however.

fny 3 hours ago [-]
Housing prices and rent.
daniel_iversen 3 hours ago [-]
I don't think there's a great mystery - what could possibly be the secret for why people voted for Trump you say? Probably the same reason why people vote for any other political candidate, right? Surely the simplest explanation is the most likely; they preferred him to the other candidate in some combination of what he brings vs. the other candidate? Some people are lifelong affiliates of a political party, sure, and that's less interesting and fruitful TBH, but for the "undecided" or "open-minded" voters I don't see how it's more complex Than they decided it based on the information at hand. Question is whether they were misinformed and how much the positive messages ("This is what we'll do") draws vs. "The other person will end the world" rhetoric. Thoughts?
csomar 1 hours ago [-]
> Tried to Google it but all I find is a bunch of American news website like CNN and website like https://www.voterstudygroup.org/publication/the-five-types-t...

> I'm trying to look beyond the propaganda, any idea if there has been scientific studies or anything remotely credible ?

Exactly, they "propaganded" so hard that they created a narrative that they are the definitive winners. So you bought into their propaganda and now you are surprised. The reality is that the democrats are not that good and the people voted.

dools 43 minutes ago [-]
The only reason people vote for conservatives is because they're selfish or ignorant. This is obvious because there are 2 things in the economy: labour and capital. It is no coindence then that democracies invariably develop 2 parties. One of those parties ostensibly represents the intrests of labour. As such the other must represent the interests of capital. But how could a party that benefits so few, ever win a majority? Well, a combination of selfish people (those who benefit directly from the policies) and ignorant people (those who have been convinced by any number of falsehoods to vote against their own economic interests).
39 minutes ago [-]
mellosouls 3 hours ago [-]
'm trying to look beyond the propaganda, any idea if there has been scientific studies or anything remotely credible ?

I'm afraid this is the problem - your implication is that Trump voters need explaining using scientific analysis as some sort of aberration.

One day, there will hopefully be an analysis - but it will be of how among huge parts of the media and establishment this ideological view became the null hypothesis to the extent that people - in good faith - thought they were looking beyond the propoganda while asking questions like yours.

beltsazar 2 hours ago [-]
You're asking as if the other candidate is a no-brainer choice. If the other candidate were Kennedy, then sure—but they were not. In this case, many would be undecided and would vote not the best candidate, but the least bad one.
3 hours ago [-]
throw2343223434 3 hours ago [-]
Maybe you're just stuck in your own echo chamber mate.
senda 3 hours ago [-]
It's almost definitely the Bidens administration perceived failings to deal with inflation.
andrewinardeer 3 hours ago [-]
Also add illegal immigration. People are seriously pissed off about it. My working theory is that this all stems from fear of foreigners/ xenophobia.
mbg721 3 hours ago [-]
Jason Pargin (author of John Dies at the End et al.) is pretty insightful on the perspective of Americans in dying small towns.
theshrike79 2 hours ago [-]
My theory is that a good portion of people didn't vote for "Trump", they voted for their party. That's the end of their thought process.

Party affiliation is a huge part of people's culture and personality in the US, "We are a Republican family" is something people outside of the US wouldn't say out loud. They have always voted Republican and will always vote Republican even if it's against their interests.

lelanthran 3 hours ago [-]
> I refuse to believe the narrative that Americans are just a bunch of redneck retarded bigots.

They aren't, really. That's just what a vocal minority calls them, said minority actually deluding themselves into thinking that they are the majority.

keiferski 3 hours ago [-]
Basically it's this:

- The economy is what ultimately matters to many people, and the impression is that the economy has been bad for the last 4 years under Biden but was better under Trump. The actual data is more unclear and confusing, but the average person has this impression.

- Harris wasn't likable/charismatic enough to many people, and was largely supported for her policies first and her personality second. Trump, on the other hand, went on a lot of longform podcasts, worked at McDonalds for a few hours, and generally seems more "human" to the average person.

- A general sense of rage/dislike/push-back at "elites" in Washington DC, the coasts, the mainstream media organizations, etc. If you google "trust in government" or "trust in media", they will elaborate on this issue. Trump, although a billionaire from NYC, is generally disliked there and is perceived as being an outsider and rebel vs. the elite group mentioned.

- Some protectionist policies Trump claims to support will benefit people in key battleground states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, etc

Ultimately it comes down to two things, IMO: personal charisma and the economy. Everything else is only relevant in close elections.

notadoomer236 2 hours ago [-]
Harris wasn’t just unlikeable. She came across as downright incompetent, a mediocrity elevated to the highest positions by the exact sort of identify focused criteria voters don’t want.
j-krieger 2 hours ago [-]
> under Biden but was better under Trump.

Rich people getting richer doesn't matter if your rent goes up.

> Trump, on the other hand, went on a lot of longform podcasts,

Harris sure does have the time to go on Rogan now...

jemmyw 2 hours ago [-]
> Harris wasn't likable/charismatic enough to many people, and was largely supported for her policies first and her personality second. Trump, on the other hand, went on a lot of longform podcasts, worked at McDonalds for a few hours, and generally seems more "human" to the average person.

I would argue it was the other way round. They both went on podcasts etc and I'm debate and in rallies Trump was verging on incoherent and boring his own supporters. But on policy he was far stronger. I'm not American and I'm left wing but the trade and tax policies he's proposing do speak to traditional left wing, trade union workers: put up barriers to lower cost countries undercutting American workers. I don't know what Harris vision is, it seems she has trouble articulating it clearly.

keiferski 2 hours ago [-]
Trump went on quite a few very popular podcasts like Joe Rogan and Theo Von, but Harris didn't.

IMO the average voter is quite in-line with Rogan and Theo Von culturally (more than they are with Trump or Harris, for that matter) and so for Harris to skip those was a major misstep that just further made her seem like an aloof member of the DC/Coastal elite.

Biden didn't have this problem because he was more of a blue collar/middle class guy from Scranton and despite his gaffes, was more likable by the average person.

j-krieger 2 hours ago [-]
Rogan alone has more daily listeners than left leaning news shows have people watching in a week. I think it was something like 11 million per day. Big mistake to not show up there.
keiferski 2 hours ago [-]
Absolutely - if you look on YouTube alone, the view counts on interviews/podcasts between Trump/Vance and Harris/Walz are dramatically different. For better or worse, people increasingly get their information and news from videos, and to skip that was a major misunderstanding of the cultural landscape.
ctchocula 2 hours ago [-]
Idk about Theo Von, but Rogan put his thumb on the scale when he refused to interview Harris even though he interviewed Trump.
keiferski 1 hours ago [-]
From what I have read/watched, Rogan didn't refuse to interview Harris and offered to do the same multi-hour interview he does with every guest.

Harris just wanted him to fly to another city and do a 1-hour interview in their studio. To make an exception for a single guest seems unfair and I don't blame Rogan for not agreeing.

https://youtu.be/_aT2grMe1I4?si=jMtsUggT2eaOZdpo

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/29/joe-rogan-ka...

ctchocula 1 hours ago [-]
The truth will come out eventually, but this article suggests Rogan stiffed her on purpose.

https://newrepublic.com/post/187601/fox-news-joe-rogan-donal...

keiferski 56 minutes ago [-]
Did you read that link? It has no information other than a vague speculation.
laurels-marts 53 minutes ago [-]
> refused to interview Harris

Why spread misinformation?

gregwebs 2 hours ago [-]
Get out of your bubble and listen to people. Hacker News is part of your bubble.

The majority of people have picked a side long ago and are sticking to it. You want to talk to independents or people that have changed sides recently.

The interesting thing for me was seeing the blowback from the woke movement. People I know that were raised Democrats and supported gay rights could no longer identify with the party supporting a movement that appeared to be telling them that they are racist (and BTW be careful or you might get cancelled) and that it would be great if their kids changed genders. This led them away from legacy media and towards opposite points of view.

I am not claiming this was the decisive reason- just pointing out something that I don’t see talked about much. Listen to people and you will find other reasons.

sakopov 3 hours ago [-]
This kind of commentary just boggles my mind. I voted for both Republicans and Democrats in my lifetime and I have never had any problems identifying the reasons why anyone would vote either way. And I consider myself a very casual political observer. The fact that people believe that Trump won because people are retarded bigoted rednecks just tells me you live in a fucking bubble under a rock in a deep forest. How do you go through life living so isolated from anyone who doesn't think like you?
2 hours ago [-]
thegabriele 2 hours ago [-]
Becauase Trump is the champion of the name-calling politics and here we are in your comment, still playing his game.
vixen99 2 hours ago [-]
Why not ask some of the distinguished conservative academics who support the likely (as I write) next President? By the way, how about turning the question round? I hope you do not think that's unthinkable.
ookblah 3 hours ago [-]
I mean, I grew up in a conservative state and a small/medium sized city that has always been red. Not every one is a "redneck retarded bigot". I don't think most of them aren't as openly racist as made out to be. Outside of politics you wouldn't even think anything was too out of the ordinary.

That said, I'm not sure stuff like "He's annointed by God", "He tells it like it is/Isn't afraid to speak his mind", "Liberals are evil/devil/<insert literally any reason to hate them> " is stuff you want to hear, but it does represent a somewhat overall sentiment (generalized of course).

More centered around ignorance and perceived old "conservative values". I find very few people actually able to articulate their points.

throwaway65432 3 hours ago [-]
"The thing that baffles me is that good and serious people have seen versions of what happened tonight in the US for eight years and are still surprised that people don’t see the world as they do.

1) Voters think “the economy” is “can I afford to live” NOT “we are doing better nationally than others”. Inflation is politically more important than GDP

2) Immigration matters, both the sense of control/uncontrolled and the raw numbers, particularly when money is tight. See 1

3) Don’t take voters for fools: in this case don’t insist a clearly gaga leader is up to the job

4) Don’t try to fight a charismatic opponent with someone who can’t answer basic questions about why they want to be in charge. The ability to communicate is not an optional extra for politicians, it is a core part of the job description

5) Go woke, go politically broke

6) What the metro elites regard as an illogical vote is not necessarily illogical for people who are struggling and angry - see 1,2,3,4,5 Personally I think democracy matters very much and some/much of what Trump says is appalling but until his opponents learn the lessons above, voters will keep voting for someone who manages to encapsulate what they feel"

https://x.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1854055061925560448

j-krieger 2 hours ago [-]
> Voters think “the economy” is “can I afford to live” NOT “we are doing better nationally than others”.

They think correct, in the only sense that matters.

light_hue_1 3 hours ago [-]
This is the best that I've seen https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/03/opinion/election-focus-gr...

Biden is wildly unpopular, Harris is his right hand, she didn't get put up by any competitive process, and she never promised change to a country that very much wants it. The nyt always considered her the worst possible option from day 1, aside from Biden. This shouldn't be a surprise.

hughesjj 2 hours ago [-]
DNC really channeling that "don't get fired" energy
Gasp0de 3 hours ago [-]
Unfortunately, it seems the article can't be viewed without signing up.
mportela 3 hours ago [-]
ctchocula 3 hours ago [-]
You have to understand American politics behind the rise of Trump. Since the 1980s and Reagan, Democrats had broken with their New Deal era coalition composed of union workers. Instead, Democrats have aligned with middle class knowledge workers, and pushed for neoliberal policy that have offshored many manufacturing jobs. This was seen as a betrayal to the working class. That has left many working class whites with high school degrees with low-paying service jobs, that gave them a lower standard of living compared to the union jobs their parents worked.

This continued from Clinton to the Obama era. While Obamacare was a step in the right direction, it was seen as too little too late. It also had unintended consequences. For example, some of my part-time service job colleagues reported that pre-Obamacare, the employer could have them work 40 hours a week, because they weren't forced to provide them health insurance that met some minimum standard. However post-Obamacare, their hours were limited at 29 hours, which made it much harder to make a living.

By 2016, there was an opioid addiction crisis composing largely of working whites with only a high school degree, and the economy was still suffering from the slower-than-possible recovery from the Great Recession. (Economists say it would've been faster with more stimulus, but Obama was cowed by his neoliberal econ advisors). Due to gridlock in the political system, immigration system reform was impossible, and Presidents could only use Executive Orders to try to mitigate (but not solve) the problem of an increasing number of illegal immigrants from the Southern border.

All the pieces were in place:

- Scapegoat: illegal immigrants

- Weak economy: check

- Disgruntled populace: check

Feeling abandoned by both parties, the electorate went with an anti-establishment strongman demagogue who preyed on their hopes and fears. It's almost identical to the political environment that gave rise to Hitler and Mussolini.

The saving grace for the US during Trump's first term has been her strong democratic institutions. Pray they hold up during his second and hopefully final term.

j-krieger 2 hours ago [-]
The american academic elite is a tiny minority who think they know best. They received a reality check today.
hughesjj 2 hours ago [-]
Biden has been the most pro union president since the new deal though

Totally agreed that neoliberalism is a cancer though

dyauspitr 3 hours ago [-]
Honestly, Americans don’t like modern feminism and anything related to trans ideologies. High inflation played a role too. It was pretty effectively curtailed but not fast enough to directly affect people’s lives before the election.
lelanthran 3 hours ago [-]
> Honestly, Americans don’t like modern feminism and anything related to trans ideologies.

I doubt most people like those two things. The difference is, they get insulted, shamed and targeted for social ostracisation if they let on what they don't like.

Which results in the election results that you see - just because you've successfully silenced someone from expressing their opinion, that doesn't mean that you changed their vote.

j-krieger 2 hours ago [-]
> Honestly, Americans don’t like modern feminism and anything related to trans ideologies

Americans (and people in general) do not care about social issues when they are hurting financially.

major505 3 hours ago [-]
Is not only americans. Is most people, but they are afraid to tell and being labeled as biggots.

Is a lot a things, economy for sure, but the demiocrafts passed 4 years calling half the country nazis and facists, and denying things that everyone could see like Biden health issues. This comes with a price.

m2024 3 hours ago [-]
[dead]
panick21_ 3 hours ago [-]
In tons of the non-Trump races the anti-trans and anti-feminist ads have not worked well.
zmgsabst 3 hours ago [-]
This interview between Elon Musk and Joe Rogan explains — though I’m not sure the timestamp.

Joe Rogan found it convincing enough to endorse Trump afterwards.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qZl_5xHoBw

You could also watch the episode interviewing Trump.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hBMoPUAeLnY

Or his VP, Vance.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRyyTAs1XY8

Presumably the majority are people who agree with the message conveyed during such interviews.

clumsysmurf 3 hours ago [-]
You might find some insight here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2024/11/trump-voters-li...

They discuss a paper "The Authentic Appeal of the Lying Demagogue: Proclaiming the Deeper Truth About Political Illegitimacy.”

Which asks the Q:

"H]ow can a constituency of voters find a candidate ‘authentically appealing’ (i.e., view him positively as authentic) even though he is a ‘lying demagogue’ (someone who deliberately tells lies and appeals to non-normative private prejudices)?”

one A is:

"Trump’s boldly false proclamations—about himself, about his rivals and critics, about the world—are not a bug. They’re a feature. They demonstrate he is sticking it to the other side. To the elites, the media, the establishment, the government, academia, Hollywood, the libs, the woke crowd, the minorities, the…whoever it is his supporters resent, despise, or disregard."

FeepingCreature 3 hours ago [-]
That's also why in 2016, a year's worth of "Trump is terrible" articles only helped him - because the actual received message was "we, the people you despise, really would hate if Trump was elected". It's a sign of authenticity. Trump couldn't betray them, because he very evidently had nowhere else to go.
djtango 3 hours ago [-]
Aka polarisation. When Trump first won I conceptualised it as him arbitraging humanity/democracy's lack of preparedness for social media and the internet upending established flows of information.

The solution at its heart is to reduce conflict and bridge the gap. I have enjoyed Zachary Elwoods most recent podcast episode showing how Trump is misquoted by traditional media outlets which has the negative effect of furthering the perception of bias.

runarberg 3 hours ago [-]
Your refusal to believe that is apt. People are not nearly as dumb as this narrative puts them out to be. This mindset is at best elitism, and ignores human agency.

In reality every Trump voter has their own reason to behave this way. And their behavior is perfectly rational according to their own beliefs. My personal theory is that we have been grossly underestimating the potency of misinformation and disinformation propaganda on social media. Especially those which weaponizes peoples actual grievances with authority, and directs them in this way. Anybody can be a victim of misinformation (we see this in action with people that fall victims to scam), the misinformation you personally don’t fall victim to was probably not directed at you (see e.g. the Nigerian Prince filter for wire fraud scams).

I think that even though humans are smart, and we have our own agency, there are also number of ways which our intelligence can be exploited. This is the case for scams, but also for misinformation propaganda. I think the real lesson here is in the failures of our democratic institutions to protect us from this exploitation.

lazyeye 3 hours ago [-]
You start off by saying these people arent stupid, then go on to suggest they are easily manipulated by (what you think is) misinformation. Just not smart, like you I guess? Honestly, I think the kind of people you are sneering at are actually smarter than you as they would never make the kind of stupid, ignorant comment you've made here.
runarberg 2 hours ago [-]
Being susceptible to propaganda (or a scam for that matter) isn’t stupidity. We are all susceptible to it. It just varies which propaganda and to what degree.

I never called Trump voters stupid. I think there may be a misunderstanding here because traditional discourse has people believe that only stupid people fall for misinformation propaganda (or a scam). I was explicitly rejecting that.

lazyeye 1 hours ago [-]
Is it possible that you are the one that has been manipulated by misinformation? Is it possible that people can disagree with you without "misinformation" being involved?
runarberg 36 minutes ago [-]
Oh, there is no doubt in my mind that I’m susceptible to propaganda, including misinformation campaigns.

However misinformation campaigns are a fact of social media. There are several documented cases of misinformation spreading. It is possible that I have just been lied to about that the media et.all lied about the scale and severity of misinformation and I believed it (although, wouldn’t that be a misinformation campaign which proofs their existence?)

briandear 3 hours ago [-]
I can give you my anecdote:

I worked for Best Buy. They fired us and hired an Indian offshore team. They had H1B representatives in the U.S. that I had to spend three months training to do my job.

H1B is supposed to be to fill critical shortages. There wasn’t a critical shortage because I existed and my entire team existed.

Best Buy’s CEO preaches “inclusivity” and “the value of each employee” — while simultaneously firing Americans (and permanent residents) to lower costs — while making the vast majority of their profit selling products to Americans.

The other reason I voted Trump was the Covid lockdowns and the attempted vaccine mandates. Blue states such as California had schools closed for over a year, while red states such as Texas and Florida quickly reopened. The type of government that would arrest a person surfing off of Santa Cruz is a government that has lost their mind. And anyone Dr Sarah Cody of Santa Clara county would support, I’m going to support the opposite.

On a more subjective level — anyone that the establishment tries so hard to oppose-arrest-bankrupt-kill is worthy of my vote. When Dick Cheney endorsed Harris, the decision got really easy to support Trump. Also, see the Abraham Accords for why many support Trump on a foreign policy level.

I don’t care about engaging in a debate and plenty will downvote simply because I’m not in their tribe — but while you asked for a scientific study, there isn’t one yet, but there are tens of millions of anecdotes like mine which should give you a good start.

Not that it matters — my wife is an immigrant from Mexico and her entire family in the U.S. (who are all first generation citizens) — all voted Trump as well. Some make the mistake of assuming “immigrants” are all “undocumented.” There’s a huge difference in being anti-immigrant and anti-illegal-immigrant. The left-wing media fails to make the distinction. Also have a look at the so-called “Black” vote — they have a lot more nuance than the media would have you believe.

j-krieger 2 hours ago [-]
I agree fully with your points. Covid restrictions were insane and will change my voting habits forever. What happened to "personal responsibility" in that time??
notadoomer236 2 hours ago [-]
This is a great example, and you’re downvoted because liberals don’t like to hear the criticisms of their tribe. They ask why people would vote for Trump, you explain your anecdote, and they downvote you. Classic blue tribe behavior.
cryptozeus 3 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
bagels 3 hours ago [-]
Twitter is a biased sample
lazyeye 3 hours ago [-]
The reason people vote for Trump is because of people like you...really, exactly like you.
vdqtp3 3 hours ago [-]
You have two options. If you listen to the American left and most media outlets, it's because Trump voters hate women, gays, foreigners, blacks, trans people, and progress - and to be fair, some do. If you listen to the people actually voting for Trump, it's because they fundamentally disagree with the basis for Harris' policies (and Clinton's before her) or the outcomes thereof.
atoav 2 hours ago [-]
Not from the US, but I really wonder: Do you guys got not feel shame if a person with that character and that track record runs your country?

I mean sure: depending on your media diet you might find all his flaws acceptable, but ask yourself if Obama (or any other candidate) displayed the very same flaws if that would cause you outrage. If yes, you might need some introspection.

bigstrat2003 2 hours ago [-]
> Do you guys got not feel shame if a person with that character and that track record runs your country?

You don't get to be president without being a pathological liar who only cares about themselves and not the people. I'm not saying this to excuse Trump, far from it. I am ashamed to have him as a president (to the extent I'm ashamed of anything outside my control anyways). But I've been just as ashamed to have Biden, Obama, and Bush as the president too.

tmountain 3 hours ago [-]
Many have a very shallow understanding of policy and have also had their perspectives heavily influenced by propaganda from Fox News, etc. Ask the average Trump supporter how tarrifs work for a good example of what I’m describing.
bagels 2 hours ago [-]
The few policies that were campaigned on are going to be harmful and counterproductive. I'm inclined to agree with the propaganda angle.
dartharva 2 hours ago [-]
Are you implying that the average Harris supporter will fare better against such questions?
hughesjj 2 hours ago [-]
I think they're rebutting that an actual understanding of policy enters the equation at all
tmountain 2 hours ago [-]
Correct, most voters are making decisions based on emotions, and those emotions are heavily influenced by their information sources.
guerrilla 3 hours ago [-]
> I refuse to believe the narrative that Americans are just a bunch of redneck retarded bigots.

Why would you refuse to believe that? Have you ever been to America or even watched American TV?

fastasucan 3 hours ago [-]
This is my conclusion as well. In many other western countries Donald Trump is a badly written movie charagter. In the US he is their best option for a president. "What about those that didnt vote for him" people may ask, but the fact that the democrats isnt able to provide an alternative better than Trump, and haven't been able to provide better politics than Trump says everything.

50% of the voting mass look at Trump and say "that is my president!", and millions cant even be bothered to show up to vote for someone else. This is America.

zmgsabst 3 hours ago [-]
Trying to apply that stereotype to Elon Musk and Tulsi Gabbard seems awkward — both of whom endorsed Trump.
Tainnor 3 hours ago [-]
I honestly think that Elon Musk is just on a personal vendetta against anyone who bruised his ego. He can't stand that he was called out for his Thai diver "pedophile" comment or that his trans daughter openly disavows him. He specifically blames the "woke mindset" for the latter. So for him, it's probably just a "stick it to the libs" kind of thing.
melodyogonna 2 hours ago [-]
I don't think it was any of those, Elon and his mother have regularly referenced Tesla being snubbed at an EV Summit, and GM being praised as leading the EV transition in a quarter they (GM) delivered 42 electric cars to Tesla's 300,000. It is still a matter of bruised ego though, I think Elon Musk takes things like this very seriously.
m2024 3 hours ago [-]
Two enormous retards? Why exactly is it not exceedingly easy to apply the stereotype to those two?
j-krieger 2 hours ago [-]
> I refuse to believe the narrative that Americans are just a bunch of redneck retarded bigots

You were so close.

melodyogonna 3 hours ago [-]
Ah, so Twitter had the more quality real-world signal; who would have thought? It seems "hate and disinformation" are just what people were feeling, and what they were thinking.
TheAlchemist 3 hours ago [-]
How so ? This is Brexit all over again.
melodyogonna 3 hours ago [-]
I wouldn't know about that, I was not on Twitter when Brexit was being campaigned. What I do know is that, unlike possibly every other platform, on Twitter, it always felt like Trump would win.
bdcp 3 hours ago [-]
I'm convinced Twitter single-handedly won the election. Everyone that are pro Trump seems to be coming from Twitter, with the same talking points as Musk. Elon sure got it's money's worth.
TheAlchemist 3 hours ago [-]
Is it surprising ? Twitter is owned by a guy* who fully backed Trump and thrown a ton of money behind.

*Which also happen to be a guy that needs a 'get out of jail free' card, that Trump can offer

melodyogonna 2 hours ago [-]
In 2020 it also looked like Biden would win after Trump botched America's Covid response.

Due to how Twitter works I think it generally better reflects how people are feeling, especially these days with many filters removed.

manquer 3 hours ago [-]
Don't think so, the Tory leadership at the time did not really want to leave, but it was a useful rabble rousing position to energize their base. Ideally just falling short was the best scenario they wished, so they could keep blaming Europe for everything but not really face the consequences of the exit they are facing now.

Trump voters are not casting a protest vote, how much ever now it is going to be retconned as disinformation, stupidity or anti Gaza vote, the reality is they fully expected to win if not democratically then by force.

data_maan 39 minutes ago [-]
America now stands in line with various developing nations and sports a convicted felon as head of state. Bravo!
romellem 2 hours ago [-]
I genuinely don’t understand. I really hope I am wrong, but I believe we are about to enter a post-truth state.
OldMatey 2 hours ago [-]
We have been in a period of post-truth. We are entering a period of epistemological breakdown
user3939382 43 minutes ago [-]
The terrifying state we’ve been entering for several years now is where people in power believe they both know and get to dictate what the truth is. Unfortunately despite the rhetoric I don’t see that reversing since it’s coming from the uniparty.
dgellow 42 minutes ago [-]
Already there since a decade
Clubber 33 minutes ago [-]
>I believe we are about to enter a post-truth state.

Who was the last president that didn't lie?

Quothling 3 hours ago [-]
It'll be interesting to see what this will mean for European dependence on US tech companies. I'm not personally against companies like Microsoft as such, in fact I think they are one of the better IT business partners for non-tech Enterprise. Often what they sell is vastly underestimated by their critics within the EU, not that I disagree with the problematic nature of depending on foreign tech companies either. With the proposed deregulation of US tech and their "freeing", however, I wonder if a lot of organisations will be capable of continuing using US tech services or it'll move in the direction of how Chinese (and other) services aren't legally available for a lot of things.
physicsguy 3 hours ago [-]
I work for a European company and we already have strict rules about what data we’re allowed to remit into the US. Typically we’re only allowed to use cloud products hosted within UK + EU. It’s actually causing problems for us now with some of the generative AI stuff since the Azure offering doesn’t match fully the APIs of OpenAI for e.g.
Quothling 3 hours ago [-]
It's similar for us. Since I work in the energy industry we're required to have plans for how to exit Microsoft if the EU deems it too dangerous for too much of the energy industry to be reliant on Microsoft. Which is part of why I worry, because we honestly can't. We can leave Azure, but we can't easily leave the 365 platform. By easily I mean that we may not survive as a company if we have to do it. It can obviously be done, we just don't have the resources required to do it.
GTP 3 hours ago [-]
I'm genuinely curious to hear why it would be so hard to leave the Office 365 platform, to the point that it could mean have to shut down the company. I know it isn't something that can be done overnight, but this is on a whole different level than what I assumed the case to be. To make my question more concrete, let's say the EU gives you two years to move away from Office 365, why would this jeopardize your company?
casey2 2 minutes ago [-]
They just mean that they would have to do real work and not just sit on their ass goofing off on the internet all day. Real work is something the last few generations are "allergic" to, it gives them the "ick". They somehow got it into their head that doing work is bad and that you should only rely on other peoples work, I blame Gates and public education.
Quothling 1 hours ago [-]
> Office 365 platform

Moving away from that would be a massive change management undertaking, but it's not the "Office" part which is our primary challenge. To be fair, I'm not sure we could actually survive the change management required to leave the Office and Windows part, as it would be completely unfamiliar territory for like 95% of our employees, but the collective we at least think that we can. We have quite a lot of Business Central 365 instances, the realistic alternative to those would be Excel (but not Excel). SharePoint is also a semi-massive part of our business as it's basically our "Document Warehouse".

I guess maybe I'm using the 365 term wrong?

GTP 26 minutes ago [-]
I didn't know about business central, a quick Google search tells me it's an ERP. There are alternatives, but migrating an ERP is definitely more problematic than changing document storage and the applications you use to read and write documents. But if it's an ERP, I wouldn't say an electronic sheet like Excel would be an alternative. Or am I missing something?
margorczynski 2 hours ago [-]
Most corpos and banks are basically built on Excel, Outlook, Teams, Sharepoint, etc.

If you pluck that out it completely freezes 50%+ of their operations, people really don't get how much stuff in modern companies is reliant on MS stuff (and thus why they are one of the richest companies on the globe)

GTP 2 hours ago [-]
Yes, but there are comparable alternatives. Sure, the transition requires resources and effort, but to the point of making a company bankrupt?
margorczynski 2 hours ago [-]
In some cases I would say yes if there was a hard limit (even few years) to migrate. Again, most people that didn't work in many really big corpos and banks don't comprehend how reliant those businesses are on the MS office stack.
the5avage 2 hours ago [-]
One very mundane reason a company I had worked for switched to Office365, was that emails from our own domain would often end up in the spam filter. It can cost a lot when that happens.
GTP 2 hours ago [-]
I see this being a problem in the current situation, where most businesses use either Google or Microsoft for their emails. But in the case of an EU-wide change, I think the situation would be different. Plus, there are other providers that could be used that aren't blocked by MS' and Google's spam filters.
amai 2 hours ago [-]
My experience is that most companies in Europe just don‘t care about data privacy and continue to use whatever Microsoft sells them. Vendor-Lockin is a huge issue.
onli 3 hours ago [-]
Which is a nonsensical policy of course, since the US made clear in the past that regardless of where the server is located, US companies have to give access to data. See the CLOUD act.
RickarySanchez 3 hours ago [-]
European wise I think we're really failing to build significant homegrown tech companies. I'm not sure of the exact reason although I've heard that startup support it low and too much regulation / diversity of regulation are issues.
vineyardmike 3 hours ago [-]
America is a single massive low-regulation market. And a wealthy one. Tech products require high fixed cost to write the code/build the product, but then low ongoing cost to provide a service. Less regulation means lower complexity in building a product. A big market without a lot of regulation is a great way to amortize the high cost across a lot of people, while a wealthy market can support a lot of products. And of course a lot of investor cash to push around. Even using a single language and having mostly overlapping customs means that one product works for millions of people.

There are plenty of European customs and views that make developing these companies unpopular (eg data collection and privacy) but the single-massive-market is the economic reason why the US is so powerful.

darkstar_16 2 hours ago [-]
That's not the only reason in my opinion. It's way easier for European graduates to find a job and cruise on to retirement. The govt takes care of them for life and so the do or die attitude needed to start a company just isn't there in most countries. This is a consequence of the welfare state most of Europe has become.
user90131313 2 hours ago [-]
Also USA gets best of the talent from entire world, USA is almost always the first choice. But rest of the world gets what's behind mostly. So a lot bigger talent pool.
nvegater 2 hours ago [-]
I see this as oversimplification. US Tech faces hard regulations too (fintech, healthcare etc...). Also Regulation is not that big of a bump in EU. GDPR simplified rules across 27 different national laws and forced new innovations in privacy. Also Spotify, SAP, Adyen all started in small markets, as counterexamples. The main reasons why USA is ahead I think are the historical advantages (internet, personal computer), the network effects created by the historical advantages and the VC ecosystem. Also the culture for risk tolerance.
Tainnor 3 hours ago [-]
Diversity of regulation and different languages/cultures. The US is a single, huge market with a largely shared culture and the same language. By contrast, an app that takes off in Germany has no guarantee of doing so in Italy or Slovakia.
lrip13 2 hours ago [-]
It's quite simple actually: - many different regulatory policies to follow in order to sell accross the EU - different languages / culture - risk averse culture in investments and business (Americans go all-in and do not fear to fail fast) - lot of lobbying from already established compagnies (which are often state-backed which doesn't help) - no start-up culture basically. Contrary to the US, regulatory entities expect the same from a 10 000 people org and a 15 people start-up. It completely kills most startups.

In the end all these regulations allow Europeans to have access to "safe" products but it kills most of our innovations in favor of the US or China.

maccard 3 hours ago [-]
My experience is that it's much simpler than that - all the money is in the Bay Area. Follow the money.
goethes_kind 3 hours ago [-]
There is just no upside to founding your tech startup in the EU. You'll just be at a disadvantage. And as long as we have a unified US/EU market, this is not something that can be fixed. This has always been the downside of any kind of trade agreement that opened up the markets to foreign competition. Typically, the two parties pick winners and losers. Europeans export cheese and wine and Americans export Google and Facebook.
maccard 2 hours ago [-]
Other than the fact that I don't want to move to the US, I completely agree with you.
jopsen 3 hours ago [-]
Yeah, many successful startups regardless of where they start become Bay Area startups as they scale :)

And for the most part it doesn't matter, nor should it.

j-krieger 2 hours ago [-]
Overregulation and taxation is the major issue. I can only speak for Germany. Low worker rights in the US make for healthy companies that can grow and shrink as needed. You can't just fire people in Germany, even though you pay horrendous amouns for social security.
xnorswap 3 hours ago [-]
It's a like a paradox of tolerance issue.

You have countries that are willing to turn a blind eye toward their tech companies when those companies ignore laws to grow.

In some ways it's "obvious" they'll outgrow companies from countries which have a culture of corporate adherence to laws.

DeathArrow 3 hours ago [-]
>I'm not sure of the exact reason

Left wing politics doesn't promote economic growth.

maccard 3 hours ago [-]
What European country would you describe as having a left wing party in power over the last decade?
j-krieger 2 hours ago [-]
Germany just suffered 3 years of a left-leaning coalition that is just now imploding.
maccard 2 hours ago [-]
Germany was who I had in mind - you can't blame the lack of eu tech boom over the last 16 years on the last 3 years of a centre-left coalition.
j-krieger 1 hours ago [-]
Yeah, I agree. However, I can blame them on making things worse when I specifically elected them to make things better. Instead of solving Germany's issues, they are infighting and spending money on social programs and on illegal migrants. Next year, every single tax, healthcare, and social security rate is going up.

Furthermore, the Greens are blocking real progress in the name of NIMBY-ism. The current government is actively killing markets by introducing harmful policies.

Tainnor 2 hours ago [-]
Spain has had a left-wing government for a while, and the current German one could maybe be described as centre-left.

Agreeing with you though that the EU as a whole isn't really "left-wing".

nicce 3 hours ago [-]
GDPR et. al. does not fit for the US big tech since you need to respect the user.
TrackerFF 3 hours ago [-]
If Trump goes through with his wide-sweeping tariffs, there will be trade wars. That goes for tech, too.

And keep in mind, if he installs nothing but loyalists and sycophants, who's to stop him from these half-baked ideas?

briandear 2 hours ago [-]
Are you aware of the tariffs other countries have?

Try importing California wine into France or Spain as an example. Try importing American cars into China or South Korea.

There is also the de facto tariffs from Chinese currency manipulation.

Hard to be intellectually honest about tariffs without looking what much of the rest of the world already does.

TrackerFF 2 hours ago [-]
Tariffs can work well. Sometimes you want to have tariffs, depending on the functionalities and industries you want to keep domestic.

But imposing all-encompassing tariffs is just plain nonsense. It is dangerous nonsense. Replacing federal taxes with those tariffs is even worse.

Again, Trump is fixated with tariffs. At least his idea of it. The last time he tried, ask farmers how that went.

mrtksn 2 hours ago [-]
Europe is still very much pro-American: https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2023/06/27/overall-opinio...

However, the numbers are much worse than before and on the previous Trump presidency they crashed(recovered with Biden but crashed again): https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2024/06/11/appendix-a-fav...

The anti-establishment movements in EU are also predominantly anti-US, leftists are often anti-US too.

I got the impression of many Americans online believing that Europeans are tech and progress loving, bureaucracy hating people under tyranny of EU which is a building in Brussels that churns rules and regulations.

However that's not true, most Europeans love the big government hate new tech and prefer the slow and worry free life over the daily hustling.

If Trump follows up with its promises, I only imagine EU parting with US on more stuff. I also see many Americans apparently believing that EU is mostly museums and there's no technology. Also not true, EU is made of countries that are traditionally tool-makers and Europeans are anti-tech and anti-change only when it comes to adoption of tech into their daily lives, not when creating tools and machines. ASML is not a coincidence, all kind of precision tooling and machinery is the bread and butter of European industry.

So, if EU parts with US, I imagine that American stuff will be quickly replaced with European made stuff. The dominance of American tech in the daily lives is mostly due to network effect, a forced change will result in what resulted in Russia and China: local alternatives.

Europe is worse off than the US only in Energy and demographics. Two massive issues but there are no quick-fixes for those, so they are European realities with or without the US.

ttepasse 2 minutes ago [-]
> I imagine that American stuff will be quickly replaced with European made stuff.

I am in the process of (very slowly) decluttering my life. One weird observation that I had, is that I have very few hardware from the USA, even when I think liberally about "from" as designed and not just manufactured. I found a (crappy) HP printer, (wonderful) Apple hardware and two Zippos. There may be more, but it's not obvious labelled.

Software and some online services on the other hand are different.

From this European perspective the USA is very much a service export and not a stuff export economy.

elminjo 2 hours ago [-]
The first time Trump was elected was a shock, but now we understand. It wasn't a simple mistake. I have only few customers who use Google Workspace for their emails and only one who uses Dropbox for files. Initially (about 2002) companies moved away from U.S.-based cloud services. However, now I have an increasing number of customers who want to cancel cloud services entirely. But for my customers, there is no alternative to Windows.
DeathArrow 3 hours ago [-]
The EU beaurocracy is into self sabotage.

They don't promote a climate where European tech companies can grow and they hamper the usage of US tech companies products.

vixen99 2 hours ago [-]
Absolutely undeniable. I wish those 'not liking' your comment would say why they do not agree.

I'm not innocent of knee-jerk down-voting but I would like to cure myself of the habit. I wonder to what extent the extreme political and cultural polarization that prevails in the West results from a general reluctance on the part of adherents to engage in debate. At least that's my impression.

andy_ppp 3 hours ago [-]
My theory: people are just hacked off that life is getting worse for most people while billionaires get richer and richer. Every disaster the wealthy get handouts while the poor have to pay for them. Government can no longer afford anything because all of its assets have been sold and rented back at a profit.

I don’t think either campaign made any difference to the outcome of this election at all.

In conclusion it might be an amazing economy on the high level averages but when inflation caused by COVID handouts (I’m reading $16 TRILLION, but that can’t be real surely?) is always going to lose you an election badly.

roca 2 hours ago [-]
Life is not getting worse for most people, at least not economically. See for example https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N --- median real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) household income in the USA is at an all-time high, even though we had a pandemic.

I don't know why people believe otherwise. Maybe it's just rising expectations, fueled by rising inequality?

left-struck 14 minutes ago [-]
I think there’s this massive negative bias in a lot of our media, by our I mean globally. Social media and news. So I think you’re right, life is generally getting better for most people, COVID was a temporary blip in that trend. However… Inequality is growing rapidly between the middle class and the ultra rich, and the middle class in many developed countries is being squeezed due to cost of living issues, I think that’s a a part of the reason for this result. Also median income alone is useless, it has to be compared against cost of living. A measure of a middle class family’s ability to grow wealth is the difference between their income and their essential expenses. That is what matters.
pbmonster 41 minutes ago [-]
> Maybe it's just rising expectations, fueled by rising inequality?

Rising inequality is entirely enough to explain the whole thing. The bottom two quintiles saw their cost of living absolutely explode, and their salaries not keeping up. Median real income will never reflect something like that.

And that's a lot of people.

humanrebar 17 minutes ago [-]
Housing isn't any cheaper. Basics like groceries aren't either. If someone is struggling to own a clean and safe home, pointing at averages isn't convincing.

Many people don't trust that math.

maratc 1 hours ago [-]
Aka “let them eat inflation adjusted household income reports”
ftlio 46 minutes ago [-]
Yeah this trope won’t die. You can win an internet thread with data that tells people they don’t know they’re better off, but you can’t win an election when they don’t believe it.

“Nobody likes my product because they are stupid”.

andy_ppp 59 minutes ago [-]
Again this is averages, tell me what happened to the bottom 40% inflation adjusted?
Cthulhu_ 2 hours ago [-]
How did the COVID handouts cause inflation? It was only a small amount. Isn't inflation caused by macro-economic forces, e.g. interest, international policy / stability, and free market somethings?
andy_ppp 16 minutes ago [-]
If you print money to pay for things generally that causes inflation, it’s one of the few clear facts economists will tell you they 100% know.
aeyes 1 hours ago [-]
5 Trillion added to the Fed balance sheet is not a small handout. They didn't o ly hand out money to individuals but also gave to businesses and propped up the bond market.
dgfitz 1 hours ago [-]
Yes as a person you got a modest check. You don’t remember all the fraudulent “loans” than have been prosecuted? Most of the money went to !individual people.
seanp2k2 2 hours ago [-]
And don’t forget all those PPP loans that Congress persons didn’t have to pay back https://fortune.com/2020/07/08/ppp-loan-recipients-members-o...
yodsanklai 2 hours ago [-]
> people are just hacked off that life is getting worse for most people while billionaires get richer and richer.

So their answer is to vote precisely for a representative of that class (supported by richest guy in the world). And at the same time, the same electors have a strong disdain for anything remotely socialistic such as free health care and education for all.

seanp2k2 2 hours ago [-]
Cockroaches for Raid®
John23832 1 hours ago [-]
> My theory: people are just hacked off that life is getting worse for most people while billionaires get richer and richer. Every disaster the wealthy get handouts while the poor have to pay for them. Government can no longer afford anything because all of its assets have been sold and rented back at a profit.

So they support the candidate with the billionares bankrolling him and and doing "million dollar sweepstakes". Give me a break.

tessierashpool9 1 hours ago [-]
the dems don't have billionaires bankrolling them? if two assholes compete, the asshole who's honest about being an asshole is going to be more popular than the asshole who pretends to be such a nice guy.
intellix 2 hours ago [-]
I know you're not advocating for it but it doesn't make sense to essentially vote in 2x billionaires into office.

I'm just disappointed we may never know what Russia has on Musk. He went from being an avid atheist Democrat to pretending to be a Christian and pushing for Republican like his life depended on it. What is he hiding? Why was he so afraid?

You might as well empty Arkham Asylum whilst all the pardons for crimes are being dished out.

svara 2 hours ago [-]
And yet the US economy is doing great, much better than most developed countries, and most of those countries are not going off the rails to quite the same extent.

Inflation is probably relevant, since even though it's down by a lot, the sticker shock so to speak lingers for a while.

porbelm 3 hours ago [-]
But... but... Trump's policies are even more tax breaks for the rich and tariffs on everything, do people not understand this?
lynndotpy 2 hours ago [-]
I'm not sure if you're being rhetorical, but people in the United States generally do not understand this. Even among those who are pro-Democrat, the differences in tax and tariff policy are usually not the top three issues.
andy_ppp 3 hours ago [-]
I think they just assume things can’t get worse so f** it. Most people only vaguely know policies and are voting based on feelings.
justin66 3 hours ago [-]
Narrator: people did not understand this
mbg721 3 hours ago [-]
It's pretty hard to run a campaign on "change" when you're the incumbent and nobody voted for you.
Veen 3 hours ago [-]
Yes, but voters are forced to choose between the fuckers who screwed them yesterday and the fuckers who will screw them tomorrow.
jampekka 2 hours ago [-]
Plenty of people have good reasons to support tariffs. Free trade destroyed a lot of industries and adjanced communities and the free trade fans didn't give a damn about them.
seanp2k2 2 hours ago [-]
Do…people really think that prices will go down when cheap foreign labor is off the table? Do they think we can establish replacement infrastructure at comparable costs in months or a couple of years? Will they want to work those jobs for comparable pay to keep the costs of goods stable?
jampekka 50 minutes ago [-]
Probably more like wages will go up when cheap foreign labor is off the table. Higher income offsets higher prices for industries where wages rise. For the currently well paid the purchasing power may drop.

Silicon Valley didn't care about the rust belt, so why should the rust belt care about SV?

ruthmarx 2 hours ago [-]
No, they really don't, and they shouldn't be allowed to vote IMO.
Urahandystar 2 hours ago [-]
He gave out money during covid that reasonates.
theshrike79 2 hours ago [-]
You mean: "He put his name on checks sent out" - it wasn't his money and it would've gone out anyway.
tjpnz 2 hours ago [-]
We'll have to wait and see re: tariffs, but the democrats are no different on tax breaks for the rich.
a1j9o94 1 hours ago [-]
Harris' plan lowered taxes for everyone making less than 900K per year

https://itep.org/kamala-harris-donald-trump-tax-plans/

EricDeb 2 hours ago [-]
Didnt Biden want to raise taxes on those making more than 400k a year or something?
jampekka 2 hours ago [-]
Biden was all in on tariffs too.
fny 2 hours ago [-]
Go look at a chart of income inequality. It hasn’t improved under any administration. So why do they still feel Trump is the answer? Inflation.
astrange 2 hours ago [-]
Income inequality hasn't increased in the US since 2014, and sharply /decreased/ since 2019. The current administration did an amazing job at improving it!

https://recruitonomics.com/the-unexpected-wage-compression/

(Note this is about wage inequality, which strictly speaking isn't income inequality. The best policy for income inequality would be bringing back the expanded CTC.)

But the median voter doesn't actually like this, because they have above-median income due to being older, and this means service workers got more expensive.

j-krieger 2 hours ago [-]
"America first" includes economic policies that drive up commerce, even at the cost of our allies. German news is full of VW and other auto executives wanting to leave for production in the US. Trump's tariffs mean companies will just want to produce in the US and export outside it. And it's working.

Do people not understand this?

tomrod 2 hours ago [-]
Tariffs are an unnecessary price increase. To use your example, there will be some modest net growth of manufacturing at the expense of higher prices for everyone, typically dominating any net growth in jobs.
j-krieger 2 hours ago [-]
There are no tariff price increases for cars/ other goods produced in the US. Companies will build a manufacturing plant in the US to access the market. They will in turn benefit from low regulation and less strict worker rights.
tomrod 2 hours ago [-]
Correct. Tariffs increase the prices needed to purchase cars generally, not just those produced in the US. Perhaps that is what you're missing in your analysis. If the market rate for a car is P, which is below what America can produce the cars for, P_America, then the only way for domestic production to be competitive at an equivalent quality is for a tariff to balance P_America <= P+Tariff. So while folks prefer to purchase at price P, which a free and non-tariffed market would prefer and would give consumers a better price overall, we instead rely on a distortionary tariff and pay P_America, ultimately hurting consumers. In this Econ 201, this results in dead weight loss. Hacker News would benefit from image inserts here, so indirect you to wiki instead to understand the topic better. This is an inefficiency, meaning that tariffs in imported autos are driving a jobs program without real economic benefit to all (but a minor benefit to folks that are working in an industry doomed to fail after the tariff is removed by a more savvy political party who understands you can't infant-industry your way out of offshored industry).
j-krieger 2 hours ago [-]
It's not my analysis. I'm quoting car manufacturing CEO's, as per German national TV.
tomrod 2 hours ago [-]
Ah. Yes. They are kissing the ring and making plans on how to survive.
j-krieger 1 hours ago [-]
They are actively leaving and my home state's economy is in real danger of collapsing. I think I'm correct in being afraid.
andy_ppp 2 hours ago [-]
The idea that you’re going to be producing iPhones or other mobile phones in the US (for example) is extremely unlikely in the next decade. It will be interesting to see the chaos he causes if he goes through with this and the plan to deport 20 million people.
seanp2k2 2 hours ago [-]
I’m sure there will be masses of folks moving to rural areas to pick up those sweet, sweet agricultural jobs that pay $5/hr under the table, or do repetitive precision PCB assembly all day for $1.25/hr and 80hr 6-day work weeks.
44 minutes ago [-]
Maken 2 hours ago [-]
While I'm also skeptical, production could be moved from the US and other Western countries into Asia thanks to the "correct" economical incentives. There is no reason it can be moved again. But we all know it will be moved to Africa and Southeast Asia, but still.
wil421 1 hours ago [-]
Who said anything about iPhones? Last time a president spoke about it was Obama and he said those jobs are never coming back.
andy_ppp 45 minutes ago [-]
I thought Trump said putting tariffs on everything imported from China would lead to jobs coming back to the US? So Trump said it not me. It’s just an example of where this policy is unworkable is my point.
j-krieger 2 hours ago [-]
I'm not talking iPhones, I'm talking "luxury" commodities like cars and other expensive equipment where quality counts.
astrange 2 hours ago [-]
Tariffs will make this much worse for two reasons:

1. importing your inputs becomes more expensive.

2. other countries will impose retaliatory tariffs on your exports.

This is not how to do economic development; Asian countries instead used export promotion. (…And wage suppression and currency weakening.)

redeux 2 hours ago [-]
We lack the critical infrastructure and skills to produce a lot of these things, so it won’t just magically restore jobs but it will increase taxes for the foreseeable future.
sebastianconcpt 3 hours ago [-]
Thank you american people for not letting the religion on envy to take power and regulate population's behavior to the last detail.

Make Orwell Fiction Again.

https://youtu.be/X_AUQ-nfifk?si=m-hmvVfxNgHygOtU

lancebeet 3 hours ago [-]
It's interesting how bad the democrats seem to be at the game of winning elections. They continuously seem to pick bad candidates and poor strategies resulting in them losing the election when they seem to have had the general conditions for winning. This time, the elephant in the room is of course the late ousting of Joe Biden, but there were similar issues that (in hindsight at least) were obvious in the Clinton 2016 campaign. This pattern can be seen in other countries as well, where it's clear that one group knows how to play the game while other groups don't, but it's surprising to me that a massive organization like the democratic party wouldn't have streamlined this process.

It would be interesting to hear from someone more familiar with the inner workings of the democratic party why this is. I.e., if it's a cultural issue in the party, if it's economical, or if my view on this is completely off.

Prbeek 3 hours ago [-]
"interesting how bad the democrats seem to be at the game of winning elections" Since 1992, haven't democrats had power for over 20 years as opposed to GOP's 12 ?
j-krieger 2 hours ago [-]
Yea, but the game's changed. The Republican Party has figured out how to rally millions behind charismatic candidates. I wouldn't be surprised if we were in for a couple more years of Republican leadership.
vdvsvwvwvwvwv 35 minutes ago [-]
A charismatic candidate figured out how to hijack the Republican party more like. Who is the other charismatic candidate up their sleeve?
StrauXX 16 minutes ago [-]
Ron DeSantis comes to mind
EricDeb 2 hours ago [-]
it remains to be seen whether they can find the next trump hes unique
theshrike79 2 hours ago [-]
Trump literally said "you won't have to vote again".

And if the Project 2025 plan works as they planned it, that's the truth. America will become a single party state and that won't change without a civil war.

They will stack the courts and every appointable position with pro-Trump (not Republican) people who will make sure every election goes their way in the future.

Cthulhu_ 2 hours ago [-]
Charismatic or populist? Same thing in effect, but the latter has a bit more weight / context to politics.

Also if they're having their way, they will break the current system; Trump has said people would never need to vote again if he wins, and Project 2025 aims to give much more power to the president (autocracy): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025

Prbeek 2 hours ago [-]
Given what democrats stand for, you don't even have to be charismatic to push them into a corner. Any candidate who will shout anti trans anti illegal immigrantion talking points will always carry the day
xyzsparetimexyz 3 hours ago [-]
My view since 2016 has been that winning elections in the US is about telling a good story. Whether you're trueful or not doesn't really matter as long as people believe it.

Trump's story is pretty ridiculous, there's no way that his plans on how to fix the economy or the border or the whole department of efficiency thing work anywhere close to as well as he says. Regardless, his demographic believes it.

Kamala's story was a lot weaker, involved a ton of hard truths and concessions about things that people in her base care about such as Gaza. Additionally her story on the border was mostly the same thing as Trump's. If you like the border story, why not go for the guy pushing it harder?

Obama had a pretty good story in 2008 (the whole hope thing). Dems need to get back to that.

bertjk 2 hours ago [-]
It would have been pretty silly for Harris to campaign on a Hope and Change™ platform, since that would imply she is doing a very poor job as incumbent.
xyzsparetimexyz 1 hours ago [-]
Well she lost anyway. Bidens policies were generally unpopular, it would have made sense for her to distance herself from them.
EricDeb 2 hours ago [-]
great point I agree
walthamstow 2 hours ago [-]
They regularly win presidential elections by the most obvious definition, the popular vote, but lose them on the EC, which is what actually counts.

The fact remains that more Americans vote Democratic than vote Republican, those votes are just badly distributed for the EC system.

svara 2 hours ago [-]
It remains to be seen whether that will be true this time around.
walthamstow 2 hours ago [-]
Sure, but it's true of 7 of the last 8 elections.
itomato 2 hours ago [-]
There is no Democratic Power Play.

There is not the same opportunity to exploit human weaknesses for Gain.

That’s the issue. When Dems control the amygdala they might have a shot.

bantunes 1 hours ago [-]
The Dems exist to give you an illusion of choice. This had gone down exactly as planned, or why do you think rich donors play both sides? Do you really think the Dems are this naive and keep messing up without it being on purpose?

The opinion makers know if it wasn't this close there'd be visible backlash.

23B1 2 hours ago [-]
Impossible to get a group of people that large to behave strategically.

So you're asking the wrong questions.

What about the democrats ideology is unpopular? Because that is what people are voting on, not strategy.

corpMaverick 27 minutes ago [-]
There is the LGBT. Specially the T part. The right thing is to do is support their rights, and it is very hard not to do the right thing when you know what the right thing is. However, the republicans have weaponized it against the democrats. They call them radical left and they campaign saying things like the want to convert your sons in girls and other awful things. It is an imposible choice because it can cost you the election.
neuralzen 2 hours ago [-]
I think it is because people who think or say "what about me?" hear "what about me?" from others as if it's support of their own view, when really their core issues could be totally different. "Yeah, what about us?"

As opposed to "we need to help everyone, especially highly victimized groups". And then people infight over which groups require more attention vs everyone else.

zimpenfish 3 hours ago [-]
The Democrats are somewhat hampered by their focus on facts and rationality ("play fair") rather than spouting bullshit, conspiracy theories, and whatever bigotry is currently hot ("win at all costs").
SpicyLemonZest 2 hours ago [-]
Unironically yes. You have to meet the median voter where they're at, even if you find some of their positions dumb or bigoted. That's why Obama spent the 2008 election cycle pretending to be opposed to gay marriage.

The party has evolved an idea that you can do away with those kind of dirty political shenanigans, and construct a rational fact-based proof that will leave voters no choice but to support you, and I think that pretty clearly doesn't work.

j-krieger 2 hours ago [-]
> ("play fair")

Which is why they forced an unpopular, unelected candidate? I don't see it.

ejstronge 2 hours ago [-]
Within the contexts of their written rules…

And maybe you’ve forgotten how the RNC rules were changed to support their candidate?

j-krieger 2 hours ago [-]
> Within the contexts of their written rules…

Well these rules surely benefitted them.

Cthulhu_ 2 hours ago [-]
They planned poorly with their candidacy; Biden and Harris were the obvious candidates being president and vice-president, respectively, but Biden was too old and they couldn't find a different candidate that wasn't as well known as Harris quick enough.

That said, the Republicans would have the same problem if Trump dropped out or if that bullet didn't miss.

rightbyte 2 hours ago [-]
It is some sort of tribalism. Believers can't see it. E.g. we gotta remember that people were gaslighting eachother into pretending Biden is not what could charitably be described as about to be senile.

Refusing to see one self as part of the problem, fundamentally.

komali2 3 hours ago [-]
Also by the fact that their unwillingness to turn on their capital sponsors, who don't really care whose in power and whose needs are ostensibly better met by republicans (so long as republicans don't start a trade war...)

Dems will continue to make the mistake of coasting deeper into the right wing, picking up 0 voters in doing so (why would I vote for a "tough on immigration" candidate when I can vote for the one who gleefully promises to deport all the browns?), meanwhile disenfranchising any left wing voters left in the USA and creating no new left wing voter bloc by presenting a coherent alternative to the reactionaries.

The same mistake is being made by neo liberal parties across the world.

poincaredisk 2 hours ago [-]
>why would I vote for a "tough on immigration" candidate when I can vote for the one who gleefully promises to deport all the browns?

I'm always surprised by how bipolar US politics is. There's no place for nuance or third options, it's always one or second extreme. In this case, to answer your question, maybe you want to limit an influx of new people into your country (for ideological, or economical, or whatever reasons) but don't want a full on ethnic cleansing. That's OK, people don't have to only hold extreme opinions.

a1j9o94 1 hours ago [-]
How is ideological not wanting some level ethnic cleansing?
komali2 2 hours ago [-]
> In this case, to answer your question, maybe you want to limit an influx of new people into your country (for ideological, or economical, or whatever reasons) but don't want a full on ethnic cleansing.

As this election shows, then, you would vote for Trump, who is "better on immigration." You would tell yourself, as many Trump supporters demonstrate in interviews, that "he wouldn't actually do that."

lifty 2 hours ago [-]
Did Trump say that he will "deport all brown people"? Or that he will do a "full ethnic cleansing"?
a1j9o94 1 hours ago [-]
If you're looking for a quote of him saying that word for word, no. But it is not an unreasonable interpretation of the things he has said he wants to do. Especially when he's used language saying immigrants are "poisoning the blood of our country" and makes up lies about immigrants eating pets.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/inside-trumps-plan-mass-dep...

lifty 11 minutes ago [-]
It sounds to me that this is crass exaggeration and one of the many reasons why there is such a big divide between supporters of both factions. The whole exaggerated narrative and associations to nazism is definitely off putting.
DiscourseFan 2 hours ago [-]
Good thing they'll all cease to exist very soon.
throw_m239339 2 hours ago [-]
> The Democrats are somewhat hampered by their focus on facts and rationality ("play fair") rather than spouting bullshit, conspiracy theories, and whatever bigotry is currently hot ("win at all costs").

"play fair"? the democrats used every legal trick they could to get rid of Trump. The dems barely had a primary...

"Project 2025" or whatever it is called? a fucking unhinged conspiracy theory.

spouting bullshit? who's calling the other camp fascist and nazi on cable TV?

zimpenfish 2 hours ago [-]
> "Project 2025" or whatever it is called? a fucking unhinged conspiracy theory.

How is that a conspiracy theory? It literally exists and was created by Trump loyalists.

> who's calling the other camp fascist and nazi on cable TV?

But that's not bullshit. Trump is following the fascist playbook fairly closely (as agreed by experts in fascist history).

_ink_ 1 hours ago [-]
The argument of the GOP was, Trump is better because the inflation was lower during his term. How are you supposed to counter this?
andrewclunn 2 hours ago [-]
What I always find interesting is how Democrats insist their failure is due to a lack of sound strategy. That is of course a strategy in and of itself to NEVER admit that it might be a refutation of their policies or (gasp) their values. Telling yourself you just lost because you didn't "play the game" is a cope. It serves its purpose though, as it allows ardent followers to avoid actual self reflection.
a1j9o94 1 hours ago [-]
Agree. American's hate out groups and want to punish them. This just shows who people really are.
dyauspitr 3 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
2 hours ago [-]
_ink_ 2 hours ago [-]
> In four years, you don't have to vote again, we'll have it fixed so good you're not going to have to vote.

Donald J. Trump, 07/28/24

Unbelievable.

bArray 2 hours ago [-]
AP News at this time are reporting 224 (Harris) vs 267 (Trump) [1].

A lot of political thoughts in these comments. I think the important thing going forwards is to figure out how to maximise the opportunity that you find in your environment.

For our team we were looking to relocate our manufacturing from China and get additional investment. One of our objectives today is to figure out how the recent result in the US will affect this planning.

[1] https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024

vintnes 2 hours ago [-]
The AP refusing to call Alaska all night is deeply embarrassing. I respect their right to present an angle but come on, Jack
yodsanklai 2 hours ago [-]
This really sucks and is making me incredibly worried. I know we don't discuss politics on HN, and there's not much point in debating this. But seriously... this clown? what's wrong with the US.
33 minutes ago [-]
tomrod 2 hours ago [-]
Citizens United allows for money to speak. Recent SCOTUS case allows for paths towards legalized bribery.

Neither party offers a real solution, so folks go with the person promising to break everything, even if he has already proven he won't follow the law, enriches himself, and destablizes global politics.

Yeah, it might break a logjam. But don't expect things to be better after a flood.

seanp2k2 2 hours ago [-]
Bubububutttt he’s totally going to bring back those 6-figure factory jobs in the Midwest and make houses cost $150k again by….deporting large portions of the underpaid manual labor force, taxing foreign goods at 100%, and ending all government programs including public education.
defrost 2 hours ago [-]
I'm still staggered by the thought of brain-worm being charge of all things health related and potentially (although that appeared to be a joke) in charge of everything save oil profits.
tomrod 2 hours ago [-]
The US is going to be transactional instead of principled for a long time.

What a shame.

hello_computer 58 minutes ago [-]
People are tired of competing with 3rd-world wages while having to meet 1st-world expenses—especially in a ChatGPT world. It’s no surprise that shutting the borders and capping the visas is a mildly popular platform—especially when the Democrats (with a few exceptions, like Sanders) abandoned their labor constituencies back in the 90s.
paulluuk 3 minutes ago [-]
So then what do you make of the fact that the republicans keep blocking a minimum wage increase? I don't think this is about wages, this is about guns, feminism and immigration.
gedy 2 hours ago [-]
The DNC reminds me of the board a formerly successful company with good people - but has terrible management and keeps promoting unpopular leaders.
kaon_ 3 hours ago [-]
Here's a European perspective that is somewhat pro-Trump, surprising as it may sound. I am Dutch and if someone would come along and promise the following:

"We're gonna lower your taxes so you have more money to spend" "We're gonna take a sledge hammer to bloated policies so everything will run smoothly. Then we will build a million houses per year"

I would very much consider voting for that person. That said, Trump is a madman, he lies all the time, is a danger to institutions etc. At the same time, I am so disgruntled by the current system and by not a single politician tackling or even speaking about relevant issues that I am easily swayed.

skwee357 3 hours ago [-]
And this is the problem we have with democracy, and why it's doomed to, eventually, die. People tend to believe words. I guess it fine when words are the only thing you can rely on, but in this case, we have history and past performance. And as someone who is not that interested in US politics, from my understanding, his past performance is terrible by all measures.

But I guess this is something that will never change. The older I become, the more apparently I see that it does not matter WHAT you do, it only matters how you SPEAK about what you (will) do, whether it be in politics or in a corporate environment. I'm not the kind of person who regrets things in life, but if I could travel back in time and give my younger self one advice, it would be "focus on becoming a great orator", as this opens any door regardless of the level of experience.

Edit: to clarify, in order to not reply to each comment individually, I might have used the word "terrible" harshly. The thing with politics is that as a complete outsider to the US, I don't have a reliable way to know what policies were proposed and what were adopted/rejected, nor the long term effect of them on the country. The only thing I can rely on, is information available online. His track record is not covered in a good light online.

Sure, you can say that information online is skewed in one direction, but this is true to an insider, as some comments have demonstrated. The results of a particular policy and its application are subjective rather than objective. My entire premise was to demonstrate that actions are meaningless in the eye of the public.

Theoretically, this means that you get a "get out of jail" card no matter what you do in life, as longs as you can articulate your words properly.

e40 12 minutes ago [-]
This is precisely why the word stupid is thrown around. It never helps to call a stupid person stupid, because they invariably double down.
Tainnor 2 hours ago [-]
> his past performance is terrible by all measures.

Which was partially a good thing, since he failed to dismantle Obamacare or build a wall at the Mexican border, even though those were two very explicit campaign promises.

Who knows what he'll do or not do this time around.

seanp2k2 2 hours ago [-]
Hopefully more golf that taxpayers pay hundreds of millions for just like last time: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/10/31/fac...
e40 11 minutes ago [-]
Remember when he campaigned on criticizing Obama for playing so much golf?
dgellow 27 minutes ago [-]
We do know what he will do. It’s pretty much guaranteed he will pick even more Supreme Court justices, making it even more right wing than it currently is. That will have a lasting multi-decades impact. He will nominate more federal judges. He will cancel any investigation in his own crimes.

Remember that Obamacare was saved by a single vote from McCain, who is now dead.

mettamage 2 hours ago [-]
This is what the election is teaching me: people don't care a lot about what you do, they care much more about what you say. You just have to make people feel good.
notadoomer236 2 hours ago [-]
Abraham accords. Isis. Tax cuts. Booming economy of 2018-2020. Remain in Mexico. Far lower illegal immigration. People remember the actions too.

“From my understanding, his past performance was terrible too”

Depends on what you focus on. If you listen to soundbites it sounds like a circus. There’s a lot of drama displacing and stepping on toes of the entrenched players in the system.

redeux 2 hours ago [-]
Trump raised taxes on the middle class. The economy was substantially worse under Trump - he spoiled the opportunity Obama gave him. He killed a lot of people with his COVID response. Our debt and deficits spiked under Trump as he drained tax dollars into the wealthy’s pockets.

It’s not so much that people remember the actions, it’s that they remember the right’s white washing of those actions.

ejstronge 2 hours ago [-]
> ISIS

Are we remembering the same 2010s?

Also, all of what you’re quoting stemmed from the Obama era (except the moving of the US embassy)

zpeti 2 hours ago [-]
> his past performance is terrible by all measures.

What was terrible for you? He didn't start new wars, he did the abraham accords. He put in a policy of -2 regulations for every new regulation. He was much better on spending UP UNTIL COVID than Biden was.

What was so bad? He might speak like a crazy person, but his policies weren't that bad.

Mechanical9 2 hours ago [-]
His policies were terrible. He broke off several key international treaties. He instituted the family separation policy. He broke down federal institutions that could have helped fight COVID.

In what way was he better on spending? He managed to increase the deficit every single year, even before COVID.

> He might speak like a crazy person.

He does speak like a crazy person. He advocates for crazy policies. People from his administration are crazy people and advocate for crazy policies.

theshrike79 2 hours ago [-]
He spoke simple slogans at a 3rd grade speaking level to a crowd of people with similar intelligence.

It's simple marketing and if there's something he's good at is that.

Harris was trying to appeal to people's intelligence with complex answers and arguments, they just tuned out and went "lol, weird laugh".

CalRobert 2 hours ago [-]
I do think catering to nimbys was the democrat’s original sin in some respects. Housing unaffordability makes everything else worse and blue areas are especially bad.
seanp2k2 2 hours ago [-]
Especially in CA where the Reagan Tax Revolt lives on in CA Prop 13, where boomers sitting on $2m+ properties that they bought in 1978 for $40k pay <$1k/year in prop taxes while their new neighbors pay $40k/yr in addition to their 8% mortgage while the boomers vote down any new housing developments or zoning changes.
seanp2k2 2 hours ago [-]
“ I wanna do infrastructure. I wanna do it more than you want to do it. I’d be really good at that, that’s what I do.”

And then his party reminded him that that is specifically NOT what they do. They like to let the private sector handle everything, because that’s who funds them and how they get rich too.

Etheryte 3 hours ago [-]
I think this is highly relatable, especially in the Netherlands where the housing situation is beyond bonkers. The protest vote is strong and/or gaining strength in many countries across the world to reflect this fact: the quality of life for the average person has either stagnated or fallen in many places, and that's a very strong rally point on election day.
Cthulhu_ 2 hours ago [-]
Yeah but whose fault is that? A vote for the right is a vote for the rich, the very same that hovered up and concentrated all the newly gained wealth because any taxation has been dropped or they found ways to avoid paying taxes altogether, thus preventing the redistribution of generated wealth.

But this is the doublethink that the right-wing is somehow able to pull off. They aren't promising that people will be better off, that wealth will be distributed. Instead they're pointing at even poorer people like immigrants and saying "they're taking your jobs".

Yeah the quality of life for the average person is stagnating, but that's down to politicians and the rich, not to whatever boogeyman they're pushing.

Etheryte 1 hours ago [-]
I think this misses the point entirely. It's not about blame, or promises of this or that, it's about hope for change. Whether that will be a positive change or not remains to be seen, but if your life is shit, any change can feel better than no change, because at least there's hope that it might be better.
astrange 2 hours ago [-]
> Then we will build a million houses per year

He actually promised the opposite of this last time, because suburbanites don't want any new housing built. I haven't checked what he said this time around.

ptman 3 hours ago [-]
Actions, not words. He has shown what he does as a president.
redeux 2 hours ago [-]
Watch TV, drink diet cokes, eat hamburgers, rage at minorities, foment insurrections, raise taxes, and just generally crap all over the place? Those are the actions I saw.
diffeomorphism 10 minutes ago [-]
Turn the supreme court partisan and overturn principles that had been valid for decades.

I remember an interview at a large evangelical event about how they could vote for the decidedly un-Christian liar, fraudster, etc.. Their answer was that a "deal with the devil" is okay as long he delivers on supreme court justices. That was their literal phrasing.

TrackerFF 2 hours ago [-]
He's had a "concept of a plan" for over 8 years regarding health-care reform.

What makes you think he'll have anything ready this time?

3 hours ago [-]
Cthulhu_ 2 hours ago [-]
Yeah but you're speaking as someone who actually pays taxes (I presume) and feels like you're not getting any benefits from it. But when you (or I) were growing up and enjoying an education paid for by the government, or when you lose your job, or when you retire, or when you need a doctor / the hospital, etc, you'll be grateful that there is a system in place to keep it affordable.

But this is another example of a string of selfishness in modern politics; it's a "got mine, fuck you" line of thinking. Whereas post-WW2 there was much more of a cooperative mindset, collective national or european-wide trauma, and a drive to cooperate to help each other out, regardless of their employment status. But WW2 has been forgotten and both Europe and the US are shifting back to the right-wing, because there's immigrants after your jobs, benefits and women apparently.

2 hours ago [-]
TinkersW 3 hours ago [-]
Not a Trump voter so can't say exactly why they vote for him, but my guess would be the rather toxic race/sexism obsessed narrative the far left pushes. Every article nowadays rambles on about it, ever book/tv show also, it is tiresome and self defeating. Also so much negativity directed at males, especially white ones. The trans stuff is also a factor I'd guess, even as someone who voted for Harris I don't care for this level of anti science belief that a guy is now a women just because they say so.

Harris didn't really push this narrative as far as I can tell, but unfortunately some of her supporters do(and the media outlets they run).

Or perhaps the Trump voters actually believe he can somehow lower grocery store costs, though to me this seems like it would require some real mental gymnastics to believe, or deep ignorance.

blashyrk 2 hours ago [-]
On the right you mostly have "proper" religion, mainly Christianity (in the western world at least), while on the left you have the church of identity politics.

Everyone seems to be laughing at centrists nowadays, ya know the "enlightened centrist" meme, but it's the only truly secular position today.

The left remains stubborn in persecuting even an ounce of independent thought (or any thought that goes against the established dogma) on topics related to gender/race/identity and dismissing people with different opinions as "bigots". And then they wonder why people simply stop expressing their opinions loudly and opt to express them via voting instead.

And then when the voting results come in, they double down: "I can't believe 50+% of the population is RACIST, SEXIST, BIGOTED, UNEDUCATED, STUPID!"

It's a self-fulfilling prophecy, really.

cmrdporcupine 2 hours ago [-]
There is no "far left" in the United States electoral system, get a grip.
rightbyte 1 hours ago [-]
There is no left either. At least in any meaningful definition of the term. Maybe you could say there always is a 'more left' party. But that is not very usefull.
pferde 1 hours ago [-]
So you're saying "be nice to people different from you, otherwise you're a scum" is too unacceptable for half of the USA? Not anything to be proud of.
3 hours ago [-]
grecy 3 hours ago [-]
Love him or hate him, it will be fascinating to see if the democratic institutions of the United States can endure this. He has made it very clear he wants to dismantle as much as he can, including term limits.

Time will tell if the US really is the greatest democracy and can withstand a wannabe dictator, or if he really can subvert it all. It’s going to be a wild four years, and I fear more wall building.

defrost 3 hours ago [-]
It's had a good run to date, perhaps even longer than expected.

    and I believe farther that this is likely to be well administred for a Course of Years, and can only end in Despotism as other Forms have done before it, when the People shall become so corrupted as to need Despotic Government, being incapable of any other.
~ Benjamin Franklin, Closing Speech at the Constitutional Convention (1787)
bagels 3 hours ago [-]
The pieces are all in place. Supreme Court granted immunity, control of Senate and a willingness to recklessly wield power.
TomK32 3 hours ago [-]
Worst-case we finally find out what Gödel's loophole is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G%C3%B6del%27s_Loophole
rkagerer 2 hours ago [-]
So this guy supposedly found a loophole in the Constitution that would facilitate a legal transformation of the US into a dictatorship, and talked to Einstein about it, but the specific loophole/concern has never actually been published?

Sounds like clickbait was already alive and well in the 1940's.

cardboard9926 1 hours ago [-]
“This guy” revolutionized mathematics and logic by proving Incompleteness Theorems
Blammar 2 hours ago [-]
Jesus fucking christ don't give them ideas.
ghssds 3 hours ago [-]
USA's clear separation of powers is a liability in this case. In parliamentary system, where executive and legislative branches are not that well separated, if the executive branch misbehave, a simple vote from the parliament can disband the government. In USA, the impeachment process is lengthy and hard to apply.
m11a 2 hours ago [-]
In a typical British parliamentary system, the executive also has majority in Parliament. If the executive doesn’t have parliament, they lose the executive.

‘Impeachment’ in Parliament systems only works when MPs are willing to think for themselves.

ghssds 2 hours ago [-]
> If the executive doesn’t have parliament, they lose the executive.

Not automatically. A minority government of course more at risk of losing the confidence of parliament but it's also a powerful incentive for such a government that want to survive to use cooperation and compromise with the opposition.

mbg721 2 hours ago [-]
In a British system, isn't the head of state hereditary, and in theory has no majority or minority because they have a divine right to be there?
scbrg 3 hours ago [-]
For someone who doesn't follow US politics that closely (yes, we exist), in what way has he made it clear that he wants to dismantle democratic institutions? Any concrete examples?
bagels 3 hours ago [-]
He tried to lead an insurrection four years ago. Has stated that if elected, you won't have to vote again. Has called for removal of broadcast licenses for the press. Has said he'd be pleased if the press were murdered.
richard___ 3 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
innocentoldguy 3 hours ago [-]
bagels 3 hours ago [-]
That is a narrow finding.
manquer 3 hours ago [-]
> Trump-hating FBI disagrees

I think citation needed here that FBI or any law enforcement agency for that matter is anti-trump.

If anything given their deep racial history not that long ago, I would characterize them as very pro trump.

innocentoldguy 2 hours ago [-]
Schmidt, M. S. (2018, June 14). Top Agent Said F.B.I. Would Stop Trump From Becoming President. The New York Times.

Also, whistleblowers within the FBI have come forward in recent years to:

• Accuse Timothy Thibault of running cover on Hunter Biden's laptop.

• Accuse the FBI of manipulating case files to inflate the domestic threat perception towards conservatives.

• Accuse leaders within the FBI of "weaponizing" the agency against conservatives.

• Complain about retaliation when raising concerns about these and other instances of bias and misconduct.

Isn't this common knowledge?

drusepth 3 hours ago [-]
What makes you think the FBI hates Trump?
cpursley 3 hours ago [-]
This is exactly what Elon was talking about how so many people still believe the multitude of hoaxes which have been thoroughly and objectively disproved. It’s as if people were OK with just going with the original drive-by media headline and never looking into the details or following up.
Paradigma11 11 minutes ago [-]
So explain to me how it would have played out if Pence would have gone along with the fake elector plot?

Aside from Trump not many people deny Biden won 2020. How would Biden have become president?

bagels 3 hours ago [-]
None of these are hoaxes. Did you look in to the fake elector plot, which people have pled guilty to?

I think a lot of people give Trump benefit of doubt when he says these things, but he literally said them.

dragonwriter 3 hours ago [-]
What he has actually been mroe explicit about wanting to dismantle (and what his faction has made considerable progress dismantling in his favor already) is not as much “democratic institutions” as “the rule of law”, though his most dramatic failed attempt to dismantle that was also directed at democratic institutions (the set of schemes including the false electors gambit, attempte to get the VP to reject proper electoral votes, and instigating the mob attack on the capitol when it was clear the VP would not do so.)
EdwardDiego 3 hours ago [-]
Can the President commit crimes with impunity is pretty anti-democratic.

Unless you think Robert Mugabe was democratic?

mbg721 3 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
bagels 3 hours ago [-]
Those are only the crimes that have been committed and charged so far. Asking for and being granted immunity, retroactively, is pretty undemocratic. There are more crimes on their way.
sumo89 3 hours ago [-]
Are you forgetting the whole removing classified documents and storing them in your club house thing?
mbg721 3 hours ago [-]
You mean his sports car?
junon 3 hours ago [-]
You mean the valid prosecution of crimes Trump committed, for which he was tried and convicted?
Tainnor 3 hours ago [-]
In 2020, he told his then vice president Mike Pence not to certify the electoral vote count which gave Joe Biden the victory in the presidential race. Pence ignored this order. Had he not done so, it would have meant a constitutional crisis at the very least.
bdcp 3 hours ago [-]
thefounder 3 hours ago [-]
He could try to do something like Putin and extend the limit of 2 terms (just to keep America Great a bit more)and later declare himself dictator for life like Xi Jinping. You could look at Hitler as example how to become absolute dictator. “ news is that at the end of 6 years, after America has been made GREAT again and I leave the beautiful White House (do you think the people would demand that I stay longer? KEEP AMERICA GREAT), both of these horrible papers will quickly go out of business & be forever gone!

https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1140252528304631808

TrackerFF 3 hours ago [-]
On the positive side, Americans are nowhere near as politically apathetic as Russians are, nor have they grown up under a single-party rule their whole loves, as the Chinese have.

Not saying that this won't stop MAGA from trying - but at least there's a cultural element to this, that will stop the American people from just folding over and accepting dictatorship.

50208 3 hours ago [-]
And they'll do ... what? Keep watching football, scroll their phones? Pick up a burrito at Chipotle? The new Russian model of disaffection can (and is) working just fine in the US.
nmeagent 1 hours ago [-]
They'll write several angry comments to social media, then retire to the couch after a job well done.
50208 3 hours ago [-]
SCBRG ... you should seriously be ashamed of yourself.
bloomingkales 3 hours ago [-]
None really. He’s pissed about his court cases and wants to investigate or appoint new judges. People that believe in the dictator narrative don’t appreciate the limits of the Executive branch.

Every executive order can get erased wholesale by the next President, and Trump only has 4 years.

We’ll live.

bagels 3 hours ago [-]
That's best case scenario. He's a criminal with newly granted immunity. It's going to be worse than last time.
bloomingkales 3 hours ago [-]
I don’t know, I guess? If you want to, you can hold just about any president under some criminal wrong doing. For whatever reason (certainly not political) we really needed to go after his overvaluing of real estate, and asking of recounts in a close election (why would he ever think a recount is worth it, it’s not like he could win the popular vote and all swing states). In retrospect, one could actually now make the argument that his hunch was right in questioning such a narrow election with an unprecedented voting pattern (Covid era mail in, it was quite new). I do sit here in awe and find myself saying “hmm, maybe he did have 25,000 votes somewhere this whole time, sure as hell found them tonight”. Makes you wonder.

He’s gonna do his tit for tat because he’s a simple man, not a great one, and certainly not an epic dictator.

I’m not defending him, I just think the grand dictator spin has always been nutty.

selimthegrim 3 hours ago [-]
Kindly review the new definition of “official acts”
mbg721 3 hours ago [-]
The things he says he wants to dismantle are bloated executive-branch bureaucracies. If he actually manages to do it (which he didn't during his first term), it would be traumatic for a lot of federal employees, but not exactly the death of democracy.
defrost 3 hours ago [-]
He's also clearly stated he wants to remove the licences from media companies that have been critical of him.

There's a check list of similar statements he's on record making.

mbg721 3 hours ago [-]
If he removed licenses from media companies that were critical of him, there would be approximately 0 media companies, and yet he's on track to win. One of the biggest takeaways from this election is that the populace largely doesn't trust the media.
defrost 3 hours ago [-]
Do you support the dismantling of a free press?
mbg721 3 hours ago [-]
Of course not. He was president for four years and yet the press remains what it is. Why do you think he would destroy the free press?
50208 3 hours ago [-]
Hey man ... just asking questions, right?
johngladtj 2 hours ago [-]
If you need a license to operate you're not free.
lazyeye 3 hours ago [-]
Nobody cares about the free press, their content is, for the most part, garbage. I think this election has signalled the death of the mainstream media, and the rise of independent media. I find this absolutely wonderful.
sixothree 3 hours ago [-]
They definitely trust the media. Otherwise he would have been elected.
j-krieger 2 hours ago [-]
Perhaps a sanity check at those media companies would help. They've been broadcasting propaganda non-stop and you've witnessed a colony collapse just today.
briandear 2 hours ago [-]
False. Did you see what CBS did to the Harris interview? That behavior is explicitly what he was talking about. CBS edited an interview under the guise of their news department to switch answers to questions with other answers. It wasn’t that CBS was critical of Trump, it’s that they engaged in outright fraud using publicly licensed airwaves. That’s against FCC rules. What CBS did wasn’t disinformation — it was fraud.
anabab 3 hours ago [-]
Like that pandemic responce unit dismantled in 2018?
innocentoldguy 3 hours ago [-]
watwut 3 hours ago [-]
He wants to destroy democracy itself. It is literal explicit goal.
mbg721 3 hours ago [-]
What? I would love to hear how that's true (although voting is over), but I suspect it's not.
mlnj 3 hours ago [-]
@mbg721, you seem to be willfully ignorant of anything this man has said and the dangers everyone is talking about. You seem to be completely missing any ideas on his policy and the changes he wants to being to the government and the democratic process.

Please stop commenting "Where?", "What?", "How?" to everyone in the comments here. They do not add any value to the conversation.

mbg721 3 hours ago [-]
I don't see any clear articulation of the dangers, other than that he's a convicted criminal, which I argue is for purely political reasons. Republican candidates have been labeled "HITLER 2" since Goldwater. I'm not cheerleading, but rather am trying to make policy arguments that add as much value as possible.
50208 3 hours ago [-]
Oh no, not cheerleading ... just wanting to talk "policy", for purely political reasons. No doubt.
mbg721 2 hours ago [-]
Can you explain why his conviction is relevant? As it stands, the facts are that it was for hush-money paid to Stormy Daniels, but it's clearly viewed as political by voters. I would agree that it was a grave matter if his felony were an unrelated murder or something, but that's not the situation, and again, voters are not stupid.
mlnj 1 hours ago [-]
I believe you'd make the same excuses in his defense even if the conviction was for 'murder or something'.

Everything from quoting Mein Kampf to praising Hitler's generals to using Nazi rhetoric has been done in the last few months.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-says-im... https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/27/trump-madiso...

But I've come to believe that folks like you will continue to make excuses no matter how low he stoops.

"and again, voters are not stupid." Isn't it?

gushogg-blake 2 hours ago [-]
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1817007890496102490

According to Snopes[0] he claims he was urging Christians specifically (who don't usually vote in high numbers) to vote "just this time", then they wouldn't have to vote anymore for four more years, or something (which they wouldn't anyway...)

He was definitely addressing Christians (he repeats it several times) but at the end of the video he says "[...] we'll have it fixed so good you're not gonna have to vote", which does sound a bit suspect to me, even in context and taking into account the fact that he's often loose with his choice of words and phrasing.

[0]: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/vote-four-years/

nwienert 2 hours ago [-]
Classic example of how the media and the uninformed combine to take him out of context / in bad faith.

The absolutely true fact is that that statement had nothing, even so much as a hint of a dog whistle, to do with that you’re saying. Like not even a shred.

He was speaking to a populace that doesn’t typically vote. So he’s saying that they can just vote this one election, because it’s important for them to for their own good. Then, he’s saying “just this once” because, again, they typically don’t vote. And again - after that he says “I’ll fix it so good you won’t have to again” - this is in reference to him fixing the government so well that they won’t need to vote again since it will be so well-functioning.

By the way, this was my take originally, on first listen. It was reinforced further my listening to it again. It’s completely clearly the true take, and I think if you have trouble accepting that it’s because you’re disturbingly mislead by bias, probably not your own fault entirely, but undeniably so.

50208 3 hours ago [-]
Just asking questions ... questions questions questions.
watwut 3 hours ago [-]
He literally said that. He said that if he wins, these are the last elections. He said that he wants to remove license to media that are critical of him. Trump said quite a lot. All it takes is to listen to what he is saying.

And the other thing to listen to what his primary voters - conservative evangelical Christians were saying they want for years. It is literally ridiculous how these people are saying exactly what they want, then they literally do what they said they will do, again and again. But somehow, I am supposed to assume they don't mean it, this time for a change.

lawn 3 hours ago [-]
> Time will tell if the US really is the greatest democracy

The US voting scheme is far from being the most democratic.

aucisson_masque 3 hours ago [-]
I think when they say USA is the greatest democracy they re speaking of its size, land size.

It's always been a kind of mix between an oligarchy and democracy, just look at the 2 party voting system, extreme wealth required to candidate and the lobbies expenditures.

That's very close to the antiquity democracy, they just need to remove woman right to vote (next one after abortion).

At least with trump we will have a good laugh once again.

postingawayonhn 3 hours ago [-]
> I think when they say USA is the greatest democracy they re speaking of its size, land size.

I would say it's the greatest based on how long it has endured for and the impact it has had on the world.

xenospn 3 hours ago [-]
America as we know it had a good run. But nothing lasts forever.
dingdingdang 3 hours ago [-]
"and I fear more wall building." - more wall building was instigated under Biden, this is practical reality rearing it's head not the political left/right.

*https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67015137

vote4felon 3 hours ago [-]
We’ve had four years of this man as President. This seems like FUD?
gadders 3 hours ago [-]
You think congressional term limits would be a bad thing?
bagels 3 hours ago [-]
Op is saying that presidential term limits will be removed/ignored, following Russia's example.
gadders 21 minutes ago [-]
OP is inventing things. Got it.
kzrdude 3 hours ago [-]
The same thing was done in China a few years back
sixothree 2 hours ago [-]
He’s 78. Trump isn’t the real threat too democracy. It might be what he sets in motion that is.
gadders 19 minutes ago [-]
JD Vance?
readthenotes1 3 hours ago [-]
Histrionic, but understandable given how many people have stridently compared Trump to Hitler.

He's not that powerful

miningape 3 hours ago [-]
Literally, what are these people on about? He'll be out in 4 years chill
leke 2 hours ago [-]
This is weird because the information I was getting was that Harris was leading the opinion polls and the Trump supporters were dropping him at the last minute. Now this feels like a rigged election.
nikodotio 2 hours ago [-]
Or the information you were getting was not comprehensive.
e40 19 minutes ago [-]
Maybe you forgot to include the /s, but I had my first laugh while reading this thread.

Seriously, the people who voted for him probably didn’t want to defend it to people asking their opinion.

throwaway314155 2 hours ago [-]
> Now this feels like a rigged election.

As a fellow democrat, lose with some grace.

manquer 2 minutes ago [-]
[delayed]
rhdunn 2 hours ago [-]
There was a lot of rallying on the republican side to go vote online. I didn't see a lot of that on the democrat side. Pundits mentioned a lack of Trump's ground game, but I think online networking effects of republicans urging others to vote helped him whereas the ground game helped Harris.

It was a close election. Possibly driven by the echo chambers people are in -- like seeing "I voted for Hilary" in left leaning sources and "I voted for Trump" in right leaning sources. Like when Anna Seltzer's poll came out the left ran with that but largely ignored the +10 poll for Trump that came out shortly after.

I personally try to vary my sources to counter the echo chamber effects. I don't always agree with everything that is said, I just want to try and understand what is going on.

I was seeing commentators on the left decrying the Puerto Recan joke, saying that it would hurt the Trump campaign. Then Biden made his comment about Trump supporters being garbage which the left dismissed. After that the right took it as a symbol, making memes about bins going to vote, Trump arriving to rallies in a garbage truck, people wearing bin bags to vote, etc. The left didn't see that going on, or dismissed things like the garbage truck as a stunt.

A similar thing with Trump's McDonald's stint. Both of these helped connect with regular workers, something that Harris didn't have. Something that the commentators on the left failed to see or understand.

I don't follow things like TikTok, but I heard a commentator mention how that helped women turn against Trump, especially amongst new voters. I suspect that due to the ranking algorithm and bubbles that this predominantly targetted democratic or left leaning voters as there were many women that voted for Trump.

johnny22 54 minutes ago [-]
> Like when Anna Seltzer's poll came out the left ran with that but largely ignored the +10 poll for Trump that came out shortly after.

My understanding is that they were a less trusted pollster in the first place especially vs Ann's poll.

rhdunn 9 minutes ago [-]
Fair enough. Interestingly, that +10% poll was closer to the current +14% that Trump is leading by in Iowa [1].

It would be interesting to see the sampling data between the different polls to see how they adjust for potential biases.

[1] https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/iowa

hyperdunc 2 hours ago [-]
> the information I was getting

What does this tell you?

3 hours ago [-]
helgee 2 hours ago [-]
Shower thought: People vote for Trump because he is actually predictable. You never have to guess whose interests he is protecting. It's always his own. You never have to guess whether he is lying. He sure as hell is but there is also no hidden agenda. It's unfiltered mental diarrhea but it's raw and authentic.

I think a lot of the unease and disdain for the Western political class stems from their attempts to be inoffensive and appeal to everybody. Whatever policy you enact there is always going to be a trade-off, winners and losers, and if you do now acknowledge that, how can I be sure that you are acting in my interest?

“Me? I'm dishonest, and a dishonest man you can always trust to be dishonest. Honestly. It's the honest ones you want to watch out for, because you can never predict when they're going to do something incredibly... stupid.” ― Captain Jack Sparrow

bakugo 3 hours ago [-]
Don't really care much about this election since I'm not a US citizen, but I decided to check out Bluesky as the results were coming in and it confirmed my long-time suspicion that roughly 99% of its users are far left American political activists.

Literally the entire discovery feed was post after post of said activists apparently suffering from legitimate mental breakdowns as if the entire world was crumbling around them.

arp242 2 hours ago [-]
Which is not really very strange, or unreasonable. I felt this was a fairly good article on that: https://thedispatch.com/newsletter/boilingfrogs/liberal-tear...
bogle 3 hours ago [-]
Hold that thought. HN Commentators, feel free to correct me if I've mis-read the room, but I think there are very few here who do not realise that Trump's presidency will go poorly for the USA and the rest of the world's democracies.
cmrdporcupine 2 hours ago [-]
I think in fact you'll find there's been a huge rightward shift in the tech sector in the US and HN reflects that.
maxehmookau 1 hours ago [-]
The rightward shift in the tech sector seems to only apply to executives. ICs seem to be as lefty as they always have been.
Tainnor 2 hours ago [-]
800 VCs backed Kamala Harris. There has been some rightward shift, yes, but probably not enough to offset the general vibe.
cmrdporcupine 2 hours ago [-]
Should be interesting to see how those folks are treated by the Musk-Vance-Thiel axis that just took power in the Whitehouse.
bakugo 2 hours ago [-]
Yes, yes, we know. Democracy is over, America is doomed, he's going to start a nuclear war and kill us all, etc.

That's what you all said the last time he was elected.

bogle 2 hours ago [-]
Your hyperbole aside, you imply that his last term was good, rather than poor. I'm asking about HN's collective opinion, which you've contributed to, thank you, but not, perhaps, in the way you thought you were.
Pigalowda 27 minutes ago [-]
I guess they let all the Russian bots vote this time. Oh wait, they weren’t actually bots..
StefanBatory 3 hours ago [-]
As a Pole I'm very afraid what this will mean for my region.

With Trump wanting to support Russia over Ukraine and his talk about leaving NATO, yeah.

Maken 2 hours ago [-]
Sadly, it is time for the EU to develop its own coordinated army. I think in the long term it will be better if we are able to have our own geopolitical interests, instead of having to follow the USA in everything because they are our bodyguard.
StefanBatory 2 hours ago [-]
Absolutely.

That being said I don't see EU being able to develop a consensus on this - even if just because of Orban and Fico being Trump allies.

Can't mess with them or Trump will raise hell.

jpmoral 3 hours ago [-]
The West's drip-feeding of support and arbitrary restrictions on the use of weapons was a disaster.
Maken 2 hours ago [-]
Restrictions on the use of weapons are reasonable. The non-nuclear proliferation efforts were the real disaster. They clearly failed.
jpmoral 2 hours ago [-]
I don't agree it was reasonable that Ukraine couldn't strike airbases when it had the chance. Meanwhile it's Russia that is escalating: targeting civilians on a mass and individual scale, torturing and murdering POWs, using gas. They know there will only be condemnation and hand-wringing but no action.
cpursley 3 hours ago [-]
Avoiding nuclear holocaust was a disaster?
jpmoral 2 hours ago [-]
Were nukes launched after the Kursk offensive? That eas a bright red line if Russia ever had one.
cpursley 1 hours ago [-]
Kursk, while embarrassing as hell, is not an actual threat to Russian statehood in the military sense.
konart 51 minutes ago [-]
It is not even as embarrassing as some people think.

Ukraine send well trained troops there while they were needed in the east. Now they are loosing the ground there but cant really pull out. While loosing trained soldiers as well.

If anything this played quite well for Russia.

bogle 2 hours ago [-]
MAD. It actually works. Putin has had his bluff called on this.
nmeagent 1 hours ago [-]
We have been very lucky[1]. Do you really want to push that luck?

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_close_calls

cpursley 2 hours ago [-]
Nonsense, there was no call.

Blowing some shit up in the grey zone (or even Kursk) is one thing - his state hasn’t been threatened in any real way (which is their nuke threshold policy).

However, lobbing western made (and make no mistake, western operated) weapons into their internationally recognized territory is an entirely different ballgame.

bogle 1 hours ago [-]
cpursley 42 minutes ago [-]
That’s a typical drive-by headline. Did you even read the article? Or the first hand sources? Putin never once threatened using nukes out of the blue like some kind of madman - only reinstated their pretty bog standard nuclear defense policy when asked about it. Context is important, don’t be an idiot.
tankenmate 2 hours ago [-]
The EU will most likely move towards developing a nuclear force of their own (as opposed to France only (the UK no longer being a member of the EU)).

If the EU declines to do this then the Polish government and possibly the Swedes will do it. It's a toss up whether Germany will in my estimation.

Nuclear proliferation incoming.

throw_m239339 59 minutes ago [-]
> The EU will most likely move towards developing a nuclear force of their own (as opposed to France only (the UK no longer being a member of the EU)).

The EU has no army. NATO (which UK is part of) is still in effect and it is not going to change.

tankenmate 50 minutes ago [-]
Trump has pushed to extricate the US from NATO, and as De Niro said in Ronin; "if there's doubt then there is no doubt".

If you want security can you really rely on someone who may or may not have your back, especially if they have a policy of transactionalism?

So, the EU needs to look to their own security, and the ultimate deterrence is nuclear weapons. And if the EU doesn't take up the mantle then the Poles will definitely do it, and probably Sweden, and possibly Finland / Germany. And so the EU needs to figure out if they are happy with a fragmented nuclear policy or not.

throw_m239339 28 minutes ago [-]
> Trump has pushed to extricate the US from NATO, and as De Niro said in Ronin; "if there's doubt then there is no doubt".

Nothing is going to happen to NATO.

Hollywood's opinion has been proven worthless and have no influence on elections.

elorant 3 hours ago [-]
We Europeans have to start developing our own defense strategy independently of US influence.
StefanBatory 2 hours ago [-]
It should have been done eight years ago, alas... :|
verisimi 2 hours ago [-]
What are your thoughts?
TrackerFF 3 hours ago [-]
Trump will try to strong-arm more NATO countries, but the 2% GDP spending goal is well within reach for most NATO members.

With that said, NATO members (France, UK) have nukes. That's a line Putin can't cross.

pferde 1 hours ago [-]
I guess that's the best case scenario right now. The worst case scenario is Trump pulling out of NATO completely, and (effectively or officially) allying with Russia.

I really hope I'm just not seeing all the pieces, and that such option is not even remotely viable, but it would be bad.

TrackerFF 1 hours ago [-]
Regarding the last point:

I'm quite sure the US will see a military coup, in the event that Trump tries to ally with Russia and become enemies with NATO countries. I mean, I don't think it is possible for Trump to pull out of NATO. Worst case is he simply decides to shut off all funding.

Politicians are short term, military officers are life-long and ideological.

manquer 3 hours ago [-]
He is not attacking them directly though, UK is pretty internally focused and won't really do much if the Ukraine operations expand and include to say other former soviet block countries.

In mainland Europe, France with La-Penne and Germany with AfD and now Sarah Wagenknecht[1] have far-right problems of their own and don't have political will for anti Russia stance so they won't be able do much either, rest of Europe are minor players or far-right governments like in Hungary under Orbàn.

[1] I refuse to call her party far left, now matter how she is described in media.

waihtis 3 hours ago [-]
As an european how about we take responsibility for our own countries instead of outsourcing it to america?
tankenmate 2 hours ago [-]
Indeed an EU nuclear weapons program is now a strong possibility.
Maken 2 hours ago [-]
Or just everyone joining the French one. They already have supersonic ICBMs.
galfarragem 3 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
rob74 1 hours ago [-]
The world's real problems are the climate crisis and global instability and inequality which lead to mass migration. I haven't really heard anything convincing from Trump on how he plans to tackle these (I don't mean the migration itself, but how the reasons for it might be eliminated).
StefanBatory 2 hours ago [-]
To be clear, from American perspective - surely. I'm not saying that in a positive manner or negative, just as a statement of fact. Ultimately besides aliances USA has no real need to care about Europe.

And from a local perspective - a grumpy neighbour that helped kickstart World War II, that enslaved my entire region for ages and raped their way through.

galfarragem 2 hours ago [-]
The real enemy is trying to trespass your frontiers with Belarus. That's where we (Polish or Europeans like me) should focus. Platforma is a step in the wrong direction. The rest is just a distraction; fear makes the wolf bigger than it really is.
bagels 3 hours ago [-]
Europe is going to have to meet the challenge alone.
stavros 3 hours ago [-]
Can you guys please stop starting world wars? It's not funny any more!
StefanBatory 2 hours ago [-]
Sure, mind telling that to Russia?
moralestapia 3 hours ago [-]
The "no war" candidate is/was Trump.
V__ 3 hours ago [-]
He wants Netanjahu to go hard on Gaza and give half of Ukraine to Russia... easy to be a no-war candidate that way.
stavros 3 hours ago [-]
Is this "no war anywhere", or "no war for us until it comes to our doorstep, other than that I don't care"?
ArtTimeInvestor 3 hours ago [-]
From my perspective, Harris mostly failed to convey what her agenda is.

The way I inform myself about politicians is by typing "<name> interview" into YouTube and listen to a few hours of interviews with them.

With Harris, nothing stuck except that she is pro taxing the rich.

With Trump, what stuck is that he is pro border, pro Bitcoin, pro tariffs and pro Tesla.

lom 38 minutes ago [-]
If you had actually done this you would’ve realized that Trump has “concepts of a plan” for childcare and healthcare. Despite promising us his plans for 8 years now.
John23832 2 hours ago [-]
There is a lot of "Don't believe that Republican voters are stupid" in the comments, but why is that true?

Why can't it be true that many people voted stupidly? As a third party to Brexit, it was apparent that many people voted stupidly.

--

edit:

In my opinion, it's very simple. I became a one issue voter after one of the candidates tried to obstruct the process (violently), the last time. That's antithetical to America. It's ironic because it's the type of thing that happens in the "shithole countries" that we're so focused on keeping out (I say this as a person who thinks immigration reform with strong structure is long needed).

Rewarding Trump by giving him the keys is stupid if you can even muster the courage to say you believe in anything America stands for.

dspillett 1 hours ago [-]
I find it hard to believe that the majority of ~70,000,000 people are that stupid and/or mislead, the only other option is that the majority actually want what is now coming and I do not feel obliged to refrain from passing judgement on that. My feelings on brexit, which far more directly affects myself, are similar.

People who were naive enough to be misled do undoubtably exist (I know a couple of otherwise intelligent people who massively regret the brexit thing) but I don't think they are the majority.

dmichulke 2 hours ago [-]
I suppose your definition of stupidity doesn't fit their definition of stupidity
elric 2 hours ago [-]
Brexit was a special case of stupid. There should never have been a referendum with such a stupid question, devoid of any context or potential impact.

Democracy only works when voters are informed.

diggan 2 hours ago [-]
> Democracy only works when voters are informed.

Since most people in the world aren't informed nor wants to be informed, are you saying democracy doesn't work in the real world?

michaelt 1 hours ago [-]
There's actually some interesting context there.

Shortly before the Brexit referendum, Scotland had an independence referendum, where the Westminster government was in favour of the status quo - and they had a great deal of success by deliberately not figuring out what independence would mean.

What currency would an independent Scotland use? What will happen to their military? What about healthcare, and education? EU membership? What share of the UK's national debt would they take on? Who will get citizenship? What will the border look like? Nobody knows! So a yes vote was a scary leap into the unknown with many unsolved problems, while a no vote was safe and predictable.

After the strategy succeeded in the Scottish independence vote, Cameron decided to repeat that success with Brexit - not figuring out what Brexit means was a deliberate strategy intended to boost the remain campaign.

2 hours ago [-]
audunw 2 hours ago [-]
I think there's something to be said about the value of a calculated protest vote.

For young men, who doesn't feel that the Democrats are offering them a world view where they are valued at all, why should they vote Democrat? Maybe at some level they realize that Trumps policies are worse for them in some ways than Harris'. But when Harris loses despite Trump being such an awful candidate it sends a very powerful message to the Democrats: you can't just keep ignoring a huge portion of the population and make them feel like they're not valued in society.

People put self-worth above almost anything else except self-preservation.

yapyap 2 hours ago [-]
> There is a lot of "Don't believe that Republican voters are stupid" in the comments, but why is that true?

I’m taking a shot in the dark here but I’m guessing they voted R themselves, we can all portray ourselves to be objective in comments when we really aren’t. This happens a lot on social media, especially the faux-smart part.

joseppudev 2 hours ago [-]
Are you really going on and calling people that have different opinions stupid with that word salad?
lynndotpy 2 hours ago [-]
They used common english words arranged in simple sentence structures.
John23832 2 hours ago [-]
Yes.

In my opinion, it's very simple. I became a one issue voter after one of the candidates tried to obstruct the process (violently), the last time. That's antithetical to America. It's ironic because it's the type of thing that happens in the "shithole countries" that we're so focused on keeping out (I say this as a person who thinks immigration reform with strong structure is long needed).

Rewarding Trump by giving him the keys is stupid if you can even muster the courage to say you believe in anything America stands for.

Tainnor 2 hours ago [-]
My point precisely. We seem to forget Churchill's famous dictum that "no one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time".

I am for democracy because everything else is worse, but that doesn't mean I need to delude myself that "the majority is always" right or some nonsense like that. Yet the latter seems to be an increasingly common talking point, I've noticed.

defrost 2 hours ago [-]
Democracy isn't homogeneous.

There are many democratic nations on earth, many variations on theme.

Churchill today might note that US democracy is the worst form of democratic Government being structurally doomed to spiral into a two party K-hole despite being setup by people largely vehemently opposed to party politics.

Perhaps worst is overstating "old", "tired", "dated", "failed to scale", "doesn't encourage representative government".

It's not a choice between one form of democracy and authoritarian Stalinism. There's a far broader chice between many forms of democracy - some of those that embrace plurity of choice and reject unlimited legal bribery by very small very rich vested interests might be worth a look.

Tainnor 1 hours ago [-]
While I agree with you that there are different ways of structuring democracies and that parts of US democracy seem... in need of an update, even "better" democracies can't fully prevent a slide into authoritarianism. It has happened countless times before.
mbg721 2 hours ago [-]
Mostly because "they're stupid" is a lazy argument that ignores why you think they're stupid. You can say "Well, they voted against their best economic interests," assuming they're all net recipients of government cash, but they say they don't want to be, and they want to dismantle executive departments they perceive as wasteful. You can say "They're violent," but Trump campaigned on being the peace-negotiator who didn't start any wars, and Harris had no real response to that. You can say "He hates women," but there are apparently enough women who are either pro-life or didn't see abortion as the main campaign issue. Harris's commercials said "We want change," but she's the incumbent! If change didn't happen by now, why would it four years from now?
kn0where 2 hours ago [-]
Because any choice in a two party system is stupid to some degree, for most people. Most people’s beliefs don’t all line up exactly with one political party or the other. So every election is a compromise: which of your values must you prioritize? A whole lot of Americans aren’t doing well economically, they haven’t been doing well for decades, and under Biden they saw everything get more expensive. So they don’t like either side, and if you can convince them to vote, it’s only going to be for change. Kamala didn’t portray any change from Biden, so she lost.
2 hours ago [-]
amarcheschi 2 hours ago [-]
Well, half of the population is more stupid than the other half (not saying republicans are, just saying that yeah, hackernews is definitely a subset not representative of the total population)
lgvln 2 hours ago [-]
I think calling it mere stupidity is a little too reductive. There are genuine grievances among his supporters, such as rising inequality, loss of opportunities/jobs and an economic system which is not working out for them. But expecting a narcissistic misogynistic racist billionaire rapist to actually help them is…the definition of stupidity.
DiabloD3 28 minutes ago [-]
Everyone is ignoring the obvious problem: Georgia is a state with 16 EV, and was targeted in 2020 with a scheme that resulted in multiple convictions across multiple states, with members of a conspiracy now serving prison time.

This scheme was in at least 7 states, but focused on Georgia. Although the government was already out looking for a repeat of it, Trump's illegal dealings seem to have been actually effective this time (at least for now, legal challenges in some states are apparently already being filed).

Trump repeatedly discussed via Truth Social and via multiple speeches and interviews that he was planning on doing it again, and had things in place to do it again. Trump also has multiple legal hurdles (a convicted 34 time felon, and facing another 54) that he still has to deal with.

We have no clue if he's been elected President, we don't know if he can serve (the issue with the disqualification clause of the 14th Amendment was never handled; the Supreme Court merely ruled that they can't keep him off the ballot, a very narrow ruling), and we don't know if he is going to be serving from a prison cell (since he cannot pardon himself).

What I don't get is why there are so many pro-Trump/anti-American puppet accounts on HN, especially ones that essentially claim Harris lost because shes a woman and/or because her message was one of facts, inclusion, and moving forwards instead of feelings, exclusion, and moving backwards.

She "lost" because people are bigoted, racist, and self-sabotaging and Trump resonates with them. She also "lost" because some states seem to have been lost by merely thousands of votes, and I know for a fucking fact some Democrats did not vote this year because she wasn't a 100% perfect ticks-all-the-boxes candidate for them; somehow Trump being convicted of being a rapist and also the ongoing issue with him having had sex with a 13 year old in 1994 wasn't enough for them.

If Trump becomes the revenge quest protagonist he claims he wants to be, every single Democrat that didn't vote this year, you may not deserve this, but you certainly did this to yourself (and by extension, to all of us).

I'd also like to thank dang for his hard work, I've been seeing a lot of the outright insane comments become dead, and I appreciate that.

lousken 2 hours ago [-]
where is "stop the count", "rigged elections" and other messaging like this? it's disappointing that democrats can't call that out
LeoPanthera 2 hours ago [-]
It's clear that this is actually what the American voters want. It's not a glitch or a fluke or a quirk of the system.

I've never been more ashamed to be American.

mattmanser 1 hours ago [-]
I never get this sort of rhetoric.

Its literally 50/50 split.

50% of Americans DON'T want this.

Ita a quirk of democracy, but talking about 'Americans' wanting this, when the result is entirely a coin toss.

And one weighted towards repiblicans by the way their state system works, giving the smaller states a dispropotinate say.

Same thing happens in the UK. A fairly small percentage of the UK voted for Labour and yet it was 'a landslide'. More people voted for Jeremey Corbyn than Kier starmer, but one is apparently 'out of touch' and the less popular politician is somehow a 'genius'.

It's such a bizarre rhetoric that has no basis in reality, just electoral technicalities.

senectus1 19 minutes ago [-]
its more than half so far... not quite as close a split as I would have expected 66,181,515 votes (47.5%) 71,113,511 votes (51%)

But yeah.. roughly half the country doesnt want him

jacknews 2 hours ago [-]
I'm not so sure.

The democrats keep throwing up these lame/hated candidates (Harris this time, Clinton in 2016) whom they appear to assume will prevail, because, Trump.

And so faced with a choice of bad vs bad, the result ends up being quite close and unpredictable. As my daughter says, the first female US president should be someone actually good.

Blame the system, not the voters, maybe.

dangsux 2 hours ago [-]
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cmrdporcupine 2 hours ago [-]
Doesn't seem to be much commentary here on what an axis of Musk/Vance/Thiel (and Andreesen, etc.) influence and power in the US federal administration now means for the technology sector.

Remember it is Musk who began the wave of layoffs a bit over two years ago.

Bezos evidently saw the way the wind was blowing already.

I also see almost zero discussion about climate change policy. For many of us non-Americans, this (the disengagement of the US from even the pathetic half-measures it moved towards under Obama) is one of the key things that was horrifying to watch.

bdcp 3 hours ago [-]
I think people underestimate the impact of misinformation platforms like Twitter and TikTok.
blashyrk 23 minutes ago [-]
But not Reddit, Bluesky or the MSM? Huh.
conradfr 52 minutes ago [-]
It's true for Twitter (I don't use TikTok so I'll take your word for it) but what about Reddit that was very anti-Trump?
j-krieger 2 hours ago [-]
There is no way "misinformation" caused 80 million people to vote as they did.
Xortl 1 hours ago [-]
70% of Republicans think Trump was the real winner of the 2020 election and that's hardly the only misinformation they have. It's hard to imagine that that wasn't a huge factor in the election.
bdcp 2 hours ago [-]
Obviously not 80m of them lmao. But sure has an impact
seivan 3 hours ago [-]
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cryptozeus 3 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
bdcp 3 hours ago [-]
Really I'm in a bubble because i don't use Twitter? Damn
cpursley 3 hours ago [-]
You don’t use Twitter, but you’re absolutely convinced with religious convention that Twitter is a misinformation platform?

I don’t know about you, but I quite like the first amendment right that guarantees safe spaces to speak our minds.

bdcp 2 hours ago [-]
I did use it a lot. Have you considered Twitter might be an information bubble?

Musk says sensible stuff. But his actions are completely opposite.

"Free speech is essential to democracy" OF COURSE

No one is taking that away. They said the same thing before Biden won. It's just fear mongering and people eat it up.

He talks free speech and then buys Twitter and removes community notes from his account just to push his agenda. It's free speech but it's all fabricated propaganda.

Trump on jan 6th commanded his goons in the bubble to try to steal the election with the fake electoral plot. Look it up. No mention of that on free Twitter. They are literally trying to install Trump as dictator under your nose. While you fight here about free speech. It's ridiculous, and people eat it up.

cpursley 2 hours ago [-]
Speaking of bubbles…
rad_gruchalski 55 minutes ago [-]
Congratulations to Elon Musk. Best $44b spent.
locallost 2 hours ago [-]
It's dissatisfying that he could win, but it's not the first time, so I've already accepted a long time ago that the world is not what I wish it to be.

In that context, I am more curious what his policies will be because even though he rides different waves of general discontent in society, ultimately he doesn't care about anything except the economy and money. So I think he will double down on tariffs, but some things are irreversible - saving the e.g. coal mining industry is a lost cause and he'll throw those people down the drain because it doesn't make economic sense anymore. What I am most curious about is how he'll handle Biden's policies with regards to blocking acquisitions on monopoly prevention grounds.

Also the markets are not open in the US, but over here in Europe they're already skyrocketing. So "Wallstreet" is expecting massive growth in what is already quite an inflated market.

Signor65 3 hours ago [-]
Either way it goes, all I can say is "Good Luck everybody"
dandanua 2 hours ago [-]
"Kill and eat the others" ideology has won
Aeolun 1 hours ago [-]
It’s absolutely insane to me that someone that literally incited their followers to storm the capitol, has been charged with so many counts of fuck knows what, and has (somehow) survived multiple assassination attempts can come back to win the presidency.

It’s just a “only in the US” kind of thing.

siffin 60 minutes ago [-]
No kidding, I was saying to my partner earlier how friggin crazy the timeline is getting. That 15 years ago, I couldn't have even imagined writing a fictional timeline like this.

The most striking aspect to me is how blatent and brazen trump is with his lies, how fake he is, and how so many can't see it or just don't care for some reason.

He pretends to be religious of all things, he so obviously isn't and couldn't give a damn, but pious people of all people should care about honesty and respect, at least in the public sphere.

monstertank 52 minutes ago [-]
Perhaps it's time for you to reflect on the legitimacy of those claims?
vdvsvwvwvwvwv 1 hours ago [-]
Time to gaterade the crops.
nashashmi 60 minutes ago [-]
Or maybe the competition is that pathetic
TrackerFF 3 hours ago [-]
This election has been a testament to the complete and utter obliviousness of the American voter, as far as economics goes.

All polls have indicated that economy and inflation was the number 1 issue that voters on the right cared about, and yet they haven't flinched at the proposals that Trump have laid out. Musk even said it in clear language, that there will be "austerity" moving forward.

The greatest grift in modern times - and the people that stood most to lose walked straight into it, cheering.

I guess the only hope is that the economy is fine, and improving - which makes any radical changes much more visible and risky. If Trump and Musk want to set off the bomb and likely crater it, then they'll own that mess. But hopefully they'll just do nothing, and try to take credit for the trajectory they've inherited - for the sake of your average citizen.

But the courts will be screwed for decades.

mbg721 3 hours ago [-]
Harris proposed peacetime price controls, an idea that hasn't been tried since Nixon, and for good reason. I don't think Democrats have the high ground on economics.
TrackerFF 3 hours ago [-]
Let's see how the trade war of all trade wars will play out for average Joe down in Mississippi. All while social safety nets are disintegrating underneath his feet.

What's dangerous about this is not the plan itself, but that there won't be anyone to confront Trump about his half-baked, or downright disastrous plans.

mbg721 3 hours ago [-]
Maybe? Democrats had the chance to propose something better, but they decided to prop up a geriatric puppet until they couldn't, and then were forced to prop up his widely unpopular VP. I'll take trade war over domestic goods shortages, which is what price caps inevitably create.
TrackerFF 3 hours ago [-]
This is the core problem:

The economy isn't shit. The economy is booming. Job growth has been good, summer consumer spending was good. Real wage growth has outpaced inflation the past 18 months.

Inflation is going down. Interest rates are going down.

America came out of this victorious, compared to other countries that faced the exact same post-COVID woes.

The problem is that democrats couldn't convey this stronger. Republicans managed to spread the doom and gloom more than facts.

Now it's going to be trade wars, tax cuts for the wealthy, more crony capitalism. Trump is fixated with tariffs, because in his mind, deal-making comes down to strong-arming the other party. Trump seems to be oblivious of the soft power the US has wielded for decades. That's also about to get flushed down the toilet - all countries in the world are embracing for Trump-style "negotiations".

I know it is not good to engage in victim blaming...but maybe the voters do get what they deserve?

Clubber 14 minutes ago [-]
The economy is great for about 20% of the population, maybe 30%. Take a drive down no-where town anywhere in the US and you'll see the economy doesn't work for most people. All of middle America (geographically) has been absolutely gutted by globalism, among other things.

Peter Santenello has a good YouTube channel where he goes around the country (and world) and interviews regular people. It will give you some insight on the economy for the remaining 70%.

https://www.youtube.com/@PeterSantenello

vdqtp3 2 hours ago [-]
Perhaps the economy as a whole is doing great, but the facets that impact the individuals across the nation are not. Many/most people feel that they have less in their pocket AND their refrigerator at the end of the month than ever before.
2 hours ago [-]
mbg721 2 hours ago [-]
What you call victim-blaming may be mixing up cause and effect. Voters aren't stupid. They hear "the economy is doing great!" but they see their grocery bills. Maybe the victims are just tired of being victims and voted accordingly?
2 hours ago [-]
mbg721 2 hours ago [-]
Maybe another perspective on this is that Democrats were preaching to the upper arm of the K-shaped recovery that everything is fine with their bureaucracy in charge (because nobody actually cares about Biden or Kamala personally), and the people on the lower arm voted on "Hell no, it's not!" This was the Springfield, OH thing, where the media tried to laugh it off as a few racists claiming pet-eating, but a small town was truly stretched beyond its limits through illegal immigration.
cpursley 3 hours ago [-]
For one, hopefully the good folks of Mississippi will get some of their cotton growing and ship building jobs back.
j-krieger 2 hours ago [-]
You are severely underestimating the American ability to strong-arm other nations in their economic favor.
TrackerFF 2 hours ago [-]
Last time Trump tried, it ended up costing farmers tens of billions. That time (2018) the tariffs were under 30%, this time around, he's promised 60%.
MisterBastahrd 56 minutes ago [-]
You are quite plainly lying.

She proposed controls on gouging, which is already codified in even the reddest of red states.

lelanthran 2 hours ago [-]
> This election has been a testament to the complete and utter obliviousness of the American voter,

My reading is "This election has been a testament to the complete and utter obliviousness of the Dems to the American voter".

Seriously, politicians who are out of touch with their constituencies should not really be expecting to win.

light_hue_1 3 hours ago [-]
This is the attitude that leads to Democrats losing. People were not obvious.

Biden is wildly unpopular. People are extremely unhappy with his management of the economy, immigration, etc.

Democrats could have changed directions. Instead they doubled down on Biden. Harris said she would do nothing different. So people didn't vote for her. That's very logical.

That's not to say that Trump will do a good job or that his policies are better. They're worse and he's a crook. But voters everywhere made this sentiment clear for an entire year and were totally ignored by the Democratic party.

TrackerFF 2 hours ago [-]
They tried to get a border deal, which was stopped / blocked at the behest of Trump.

The economy has been on a up-swing for a good year now, and things have improved all-over. People can't live under a rock and think that a global pandemic wasn't a huge part of this - most countries experienced the very same economic effects.

But, again, Trump laying out his disastrous tariff plans is the canary in the coalmine - that his voters either don't understand economics, or simply chose to live in a make-believe world where they imagine Trump will just "fix" things.

light_hue_1 55 minutes ago [-]
The border deal was a hail mary 3 years into a presidency. They should have done something about the border years earlier when voters started to complain about it if they wanted to.

It doesn't matter what some economist says the economy is doing. Most people are be unhappy with the economy. That's what matters. Democrats listened to economists instead of voters.

Of course Trump's votes don't understand economics. Why do you think overwhelmingly we see educated people now vote Democrats and non educated people vote for Trump?

Trust us some economist says we're doing a good job was a crappy message. This was an own goal.

drumhead 58 minutes ago [-]
Trump is transactional. He'll do something for you if you don't something for him. Want an abortion law nationally? Give him corporate tax cuts. Want to fund Ukraine? Give him more deregulation. He's got no political principles. He's anyone's if the price is right. 8 more years of Trump then
vdvsvwvwvwvwv 21 minutes ago [-]
4 you mean
phs318u 2 hours ago [-]
To all the people wondering why Trump has been elected, the answer is very simple and has been true in all countries that have had elections. When a large section of the voting public is chronically missing out on the benefits of what they're told is a "growing economy", only to observe continued "unfair" extremes of wealth distribution, they become disenchanted with the system that has generated this situation. By definition almost, they become very willing prey for any demagogue that threatens to upend the system, turn over the money-changers tables. It's irrelevant whether the demagogue's policies will work or not. It's irrelevant whether the demagogue is provably lying or not. It's all about repressed anger being unleashed and finding a target. Even if the target is not the cause of their misery. And so every latent form of bigotry finds expression and is easily exploited by the demagogue.

It's worth re-reading Goebells primarily because his understanding of this psychology is what made Nazi demagoguery so devastatingly successful. Any attempt by a party to attack the demagogue without directly addressing the elephant in the room (the growing class of working poor) is not only destined to fail, but destined to fail badly. If I hate you - really hate you - I don't mind copping a few painful blows if it means I get to see you bludgeoned to near death. Vengeance is an incredibly powerful motivator. People trying to lump all of Trump's supporters as Nazi's are making a grave mistake and refusing to see the forest for the trees. Just as most Germans in WWII were not Nazis yet supported Hitler, so too with Trump. Latinos, blacks, gays and women all voted for Trump. Don't assume they're all stupid. When I hate you, I'm happy to burn in hell if you're there with me.

Of course, this is a simple generalisation and there are lots of "sub-reasons" (the bro-vote, the foot-gun Democrat advertising - "he doesn't have to know!", etc). If the Democrats had chosen Bernie Sanders as their candidate back in 2016, they would've had eight years in power. It's no coincidence that Bernie had a lot of support from those that otherwise voted Trump. They felt that he was real and was really concerned about them and would really do something to assuage their pain. Now? Now they're just mad - "enough is enough".

However, anger is not sustainable for too long and all demagogues eventually come undone because once the heat of anger is gone and you look around and realise things are worse than ever - well, that's when things can REALLY get dangerous.

DavidPiper 2 hours ago [-]
Just to clarify: you're talking about the book "Goebells" by Peter Longerich?
svara 2 hours ago [-]
I get this line of reasoning, but the US economy is thriving, unemployment is low and wages are growing rapidly at the low end too.

Nazi ideology doesn't work well as a comparison in my opinion, because Weimar Germany was crippled by reparations, hyperinflation, mass unemployment, an acute world economic crisis and traumatized from a devastating war.

The US is nowhere close to any of that, it's doing pretty well all in all.

rincebrain 52 minutes ago [-]
This disconnect is, I think, the point.

There are a number of people who feel they're doing pretty shittily right now, no matter what people's metrics say, and "no you're not" is not a particularly constructive response.

I'm not an economist, I have no detailed explanation to offer for this disconnect, but I personally know a number of people outside of tech who are not fiscally irresponsible, but are struggling to reliably keep food on the table without consuming their savings - most frequently because they have some health condition that necessitates costly things, and their pay at work has not kept pace as cost of living increases have happened.

So I have little trouble believing people in similar straits could vote for someone who made bigger swings about "I know you're hurting".

phs318u 24 minutes ago [-]
The US economy is not thriving for a very large swathe of the population. The extreme disparities in wealth, the non-reporting of under-employment (as opposed to unemployment) all skew statistics.

https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/low-unemployment-stati...

jajko 2 hours ago [-]
Hmm, as someone from Europe I've never heard labeling of trump's supporters as nazis, that's quite a strong claim I haven't seen much evidence of.

Not that you are not correct in many aspects, but wasn't inequality sort of part of whole US setup and 'american dream'? Back to good ol' days when poor were poor and a largely invisible part of society.

For an european eye US is setup on inequality by principle, which does a lot of good and bad. When looking at resilience and strength of economy that Europe can never ever dream of reaching, I'd say bigger good trumps (eh) those evils but I have only very limited view. In Europe even big success is mild compared to how far in US things can grow into. Complex topic this is.

dandellion 1 hours ago [-]
I'm from Europe too. There was a republican rally at the Madison Square Garden a few weeks back, and there were a lot of comparisons with the nazis, with people in social media calling them nazis and so on. This article [1] for example mentions "Several prominent Democrats have drawn comparisons between Trump's Madison Square Garden rally this weekend to a 1939 Nazi event held there.". I don't know if the comparisons were justified or not, because I haven't even read the article, just wanted to add it as reference since I remembered that happening and comments calling republicans nazis on places like reddit.

1: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-allies-...

squigz 2 hours ago [-]
Thank you for putting this into words. I have been struggling to articulate the 'why' myself.
3 hours ago [-]
manquer 3 hours ago [-]
Republicans perhaps have got value, Trump has got enormous real world value/benefit because of Musk's ownership. However unless Musk is actually able to capitalize using the Trump presidency enough to recoup the $44Billion cash he spent he hasn't got his money's worth it.
archagon 2 hours ago [-]
Well, my hope for humanity is permanently eroded. Half the populace elected a blubbering rapist, felon, and fascist to lead them. Again.

I'm making rapid plans to get the fuck out of this shithole country, and as far as business goes, no known Trump supporter will ever get my handshake.

JodieBenitez 2 hours ago [-]
> I'm making rapid plans to get the fuck out of this shithole country.

I keep hearing people say that sort of thing in my country in similar situations and yet they never do it.

archagon 2 hours ago [-]
Good for them. My Australian application is presently sitting in the queue, and I've already had extensive conversations with a number of lawyers about UK and Dutch immigration.
33 minutes ago [-]
mettamage 1 hours ago [-]
Netherlands: can't you just do Dutch/US friendship treaty, live here for a number of years and then apply for citizenship?
archagon 1 hours ago [-]
Yes. The downside is the wealth tax, and it can also be very difficult to socially integrate into a country where English is not the first language. (I can learn Dutch of course, but it would take many years.)
JodieBenitez 2 hours ago [-]
You're seriously considering UK over US ? Seems odd to me, that's like choosing only downsides.
archagon 2 hours ago [-]
Even Boris Johnson can't hold a candle to the imbecility of Trump. And a parliamentary system generally acts as a better safeguard of sensible governance. UK might not be doing great right now, but I feel tentatively positive about the next 5-10 years.

Plus, as a self-employed business owner, I need health care, and I'm not confident that Obamacare will survive the next administration.

JodieBenitez 2 hours ago [-]
Good luck to you then. You might need it.
hyperdunc 1 hours ago [-]
> Half the populace elected a blubbering rapist, felon, and fascist to lead them. Again.

Your kind of ignorance is so tiresome. It's one of the best arguments for doing away with democracy altogether.

archagon 1 hours ago [-]
I have no idea what you’re trying to say here.
3 hours ago [-]
cococococ 2 hours ago [-]
An unsurprising result. There is a worrying global rise in right-wing popularism and this is part of it.

We can look forward to more war, more crime, more suffering, more scapegoating of minorities. This is the start of a long decline that ends in death and destruction.

That Harris and Trump were apparently the best that the US political machine could spew up as choices to run one of the most powerful countries in the world is concerning in itself. Just shows how severely politics is broken in the US.

Dalewyn 2 hours ago [-]
Between a clean sweep win of the Electoral College, the popular vote (by a Republican president for the first time in 20 years!), the Senate, and very likely the House this is an epic, bottom of the ninth comeback victory for the history books. And I thought the World Series Dodgers comeback in game 5 was incredible, I guess we just keep on winning.

I am also absolutely vindicated in my opinion that "journalism" (the mainstream media) are cancers upon society. The polls fucking lied and the "journalism" was the real garbage.

And yes, I voted for Trump and the Republicans as an Oregonian. No, my vote didn't count for his EC win, but I don't care: My vote still helped deliver a mandate that the Democrats and their policies are not acceptable.

smrtinsert 2 hours ago [-]
Welcome to the world social media gave us
hyperdunc 2 hours ago [-]
Trump may not have deserved to win, but the Democrats deserved to lose - and I'm relieved they did.

Maybe after this rematch the blue team will finally understand the loss was their fault, so they can start moving away from the abominable ideology and spiteful elitism that handed them this result.

svara 3 hours ago [-]
This European travels to the US all the time, having probably spent an average of 1-2 months or so there yearly over the past couple years.

With very few exceptions I've never met people there who outwardly seemed like they'd like someone as a leader who habitually lies and tries to usurp democratic institutions for personal gain.

What the hell is going on there guys? Are you just voting for the person who promises the most "interesting" times, for better or for worse?

lelanthran 3 hours ago [-]
> What the hell is going on there guys? Are you just voting for the person who promises the most "interesting" times, for better or for worse?

I think the name-calling really hurt them.

Calling half the voting population bigots of some type just makes that half dig their heels in to give you a bloody nose.

If your main priorities, when running in a political race, does not match the main priorities of the voting masses, it's easier to change your main priorities than to change the main priorities of the voting masses.

For a long time now, the Dems have been trying to change the priorities of the voting masses instead of aligning with them.

They are so used to preaching at their voter base ("This is what a real man is, not what you think it is") that they forgot what the aim of running is - to win.

alt227 3 hours ago [-]
Good on the Dems for trying to change the world instead of accepting the hateful and unfair place it is. Hopefully they will get somewhere eventually.
lelanthran 2 hours ago [-]
> Good on the Dems for trying to change the world instead of accepting the hateful and unfair place it is.

You can't change the world by losing.

Their primary goal should have been to win. The primary way to do that is to (ugh) pander to the voters' will.

It's because they are so out of touch that we are seeing the result that we see. Politicians that are disconnected and disengaged from the voting masses deserve to lose.

atoav 3 hours ago [-]
Dictator on day one in the land of the free with the biggest military of the world — but on the other hand the libs were really mad, so that was worth it, right?
richrichardsson 3 hours ago [-]
> I think the name-calling really hurt them.

This was also the biggest problem of the Remain camp pre-Brexit.

It was too easy to label Leavers as stupid/racist/xenophobic, and that was a huge mistake.

bogle 2 hours ago [-]
Not everyone who voted for Brexit was a racist, but every racist voted for Brexit. - Bill Bragg

Pretty sure this would work with "Trump" instead of "Brexit".

lelanthran 2 hours ago [-]
> Pretty sure this would work with "Trump" instead of "Brexit".

What do you want racists to do? Not vote? They're gonna vote for somebody after all.

bogle 2 hours ago [-]
No, they get a vote, obviously. You've focussed on the vote part of the quote when the important information was in the racism. It's racism that must be constantly pointed out, that people must be educated about, and racism should be rooted out when found. I'm not saying you support racism in any way, of course, I really don't think that. I just think you misunderstood what needs doing to prevent these unforced errors (Brexit was an unforced error of the UK government).
lelanthran 2 hours ago [-]
> It's racism that must be constantly pointed out, that people must be educated about, and racism should be rooted out when found.

As I pointed out in a different post, trying to shame people into silence doesn't magically change their vote.

Unfortunately, when you are going to call every Rep supporter a racist with no evidence other than who they voted for, they are going to stop answering your polls honestly.

Still not gonna change their vote though...

bogle 2 hours ago [-]
Racists don't need shaming into silence. They need to understand what's wrong with their beliefs.

Going back to the original quote, you need to see that it's not calling all voters a particular thing. There's a simple Venn diagram, one circle of racists inside a larger circle of a particular block of voters.

Educating people out of racism, and removing racism from your society, will change votes as racism is only one aspect of a person's beliefs.

lelanthran 1 hours ago [-]
> Racists don't need shaming into silence. They need to understand what's wrong with their beliefs.

They already know, they don't care, because that specific belief is not rooted in reason or rationality.

> Going back to the original quote, you need to see that it's not calling all voters a particular thing. There's a simple Venn diagram, one circle of racists inside a larger circle of a particular block of voters.

> Educating people out of racism, and removing racism from your society, will change votes as racism is only one aspect of a person's beliefs.

I somewhat agree with the first part[1], but vehemently disagree with the second: I don't think that eradicating racist thoughts will move the needle on who gets elected, as there are, IMO, simply too few racists around to influence an election.[2]

[1] IOW, I don't believe that education will change a racist's belief, but I do see value to society in eradicating discriminatory stereotypes and discriminatory actions, of which racism is merely one.

[2] There aren't even enough racists to form a party of their own, so I doubt that them moving from red to blue is going to be any difference from statistical noise.

j-krieger 2 hours ago [-]
Turns out people don't like it when the sitting American president calls them "garbage" or when they are called deplorable.
plasticeagle 3 hours ago [-]
I've also spent plenty of time there over the years, and while most people I interacted with did seem perfectly fine, there were glimpses of something quite wrong.

A woman who worked at the hotel I was staying at had never visited the centre of the city the lived in, because she was afraid of being "knifed". This was Dayton, Ohio. Downtown Dayton is lovely.

A colleague who appeared reasonably intelligent and competent absolutely did not believe that Evolution occurred. I explained that this while this view might be common in the US - and it is - the rest of the world mostly considers this settled science.

Religion is absolutely far too influential a force in people's lives. This is decreasing, but it's still problematic I believe.

The Armed Forces are idolised. Airports have special lines for service personnel. You get to board early if you're in uniform. This is almost unique in the world, to the best of my knowledge.

disgruntledphd2 3 hours ago [-]
He's promising reindustrialisation to a bunch of the Midwest and less competition for jobs to a bunch of poorer people. It's sort of rational, even though I disagree.
kzrdude 3 hours ago [-]
He is not trustworthy with either facts or consistent opinions, so voting for him for something he's /said/ he would do is the stupidest thing anyone could do.
disgruntledphd2 2 hours ago [-]
I didn't say I thought it was a good idea, but clearly a lot of American voters think this is worth trying.
selimthegrim 3 hours ago [-]
Biden delivered and he’ll take the credit
Shawnj2 3 hours ago [-]
The people in cities vote blue, and people in rural areas vote red. I doubt you’re meeting the latter on trips
TomK32 3 hours ago [-]
"who habitually lies"

More like a Fortunate Son who's an adulterer, felon and burried his ex wife somewhere in the backyard.

hoten 3 hours ago [-]
do you have reason to believe you are socializing with a representative slice of Americans?
svara 3 hours ago [-]
No, of course not. But my sample seems to be so starkly different from the election results that that in itself is puzzling. He's picking up a sizable fraction of the votes even in blue states, after all.
stavros 3 hours ago [-]
Representative enough to elect Trump for president, looks like.
innocentdang 3 hours ago [-]
No, just a massive failure by the Democrats who decided too late to run Harris. Any candidate who won a party primary would have beaten Trump today. Harris lost because she wasn't popular enough with her own party's voters to win.
bagels 3 hours ago [-]
Definitely some merit to this. Biden was obviously too old in 2020 and didn't have the good sense to pass the torch last year.
dragontamer 3 hours ago [-]
Trump is older than 2020 Biden.
j-krieger 2 hours ago [-]
Yet Trump went on multi-hour podcasts while the current sitting president of the US hasn't been seen in weeks.
bagels 3 hours ago [-]
Yes. Trump was too old in 2016 too.
notadoomer236 2 hours ago [-]
Trump says things people directionally agree with, and they forgive the details.

When your border is wide open allowing millions of people in each year, you don’t care as much about the political circus.

When your grocery bills 3x, you don’t care as much about the loose speech.

3 hours ago [-]
bantunes 3 hours ago [-]
You're not meeting the people hurt really bad by the system who stopped giving a shit, and a lot of people that vote for Trump had Harris/Waltz signs on their lawns but really want to pay less in taxes and don't like transgender people.
lelanthran 3 hours ago [-]
> but really want to pay less in taxes and don't like transgender people.

I think that this election almost definitively demonstrates that trans issues are not important to the voters.

Or abortion, or misogyny, or social justice, etc.

There was a big turnout, after all.

justin66 3 hours ago [-]
This is really counterfactual.

> I think that this election almost definitively demonstrates that trans issues are not important to the voters.

I don't know about the politics of your state, but in mine over half the ad campaign of the Republican senator who just won was focused on transgender issues. His losing Democratic opponent did not touch that issue.

> Or abortion

Statewide ballot measures aimed at abortion rights succeeded even in many states where Democrats lost.

lelanthran 3 hours ago [-]
> Statewide ballot measures aimed at abortion rights succeeded even in many states where Democrats lost.

Then maybe the Dems shouldn't have run on that as their major platform?

I mean, the message "Elect Me Because $ABORTION_RIGHTS" is pointless if the states are going to get their abortion rights anyway.

justin66 2 hours ago [-]
Running on the portions of one's platform which are not popular is a thing a politician could do, yes.
2 hours ago [-]
fzeroracer 3 hours ago [-]
I think the ultimate answer as an American is that policy simply does not matter. For reference, here's a couple conflicting data points:

* Voters approved measures that would protect abortion in their state (with the exception of Florida, which only got 58% out of the 60%) needed. Said voters did not consistently vote for Kamala Harris.

* Another set of voters thought Kamala Harris was too progressive, and had no opinion on Donald Trump

* But at the same time, in local elections democratic candidates generally sweeped the ballots

I think ultimately the presidency is just an election purely on the basis of 'vibes' and whatever is directly in front of you. It doesn't matter if you can achieve your promises nor do said promises even really matter. And people vibe more with the reality TV president because they've already forgotten 2016-2020. Maybe Trump directly crashing the economy will be the thing to snap people out of it, maybe not.

verisimi 2 hours ago [-]
"habitually lies and tries to usurp democratic institutions"

Fact check: TRUE!

PS I'm not really a fact checker. I don't really have the truth either. I also don't think CNN/Google/Facebook have it. Fact checking is really just another part of the show. It's a prop to confirm a bias/opinion as it it is actually 'true' or 'false', when no such assessment can be made.

sixothree 2 hours ago [-]
It can be explained by Fox News. Whatever issue is spouted there is the issue of the day for republicans.
dtquad 20 minutes ago [-]
Keep in mind that "Union Joe" holding a pro-union EV summit in August 2021 arranged by anti-Tesla unions is what radicalized Elon Musk and a lot of the Silicon Valley billionaires to openly come out as right-wing.

The union members ended up voting for Trump.

American unions are a joke and should never be pandered to.

gred 1 hours ago [-]
As a conservative American, I'm...

Cautiously optimistic about: curbing government spending, reducing illegal immigration, protecting unborn lives, restraining Iran + proxies, continuing economic growth

Nervous about: Ukraine, additional inflation caused by tariffs, ongoing political polarization

siffin 58 minutes ago [-]
How do you figure that not providing life-saving medical treatment to a pregnant mother and letting her and her baby die is going to protect that unborn life?
account42 53 minutes ago [-]
Well for one, strawmen are very flammable and fire is bad for unborn life.
gred 49 minutes ago [-]
I think you're putting words in my mouth. IMO in this scenario the medical decision-making process should weigh both lives equally. Doctors make life-and-death decisions all the time, and I'm OK with that as long as one life is not considered "lesser". I understand that reasonable people can disagree on when life truly starts, though.
siffin 2 minutes ago [-]
Doctors aren't doing that though, they're saying they won't touch people in case they are seen to be breaking laws, and people are already dying, how can you not understand the nuance?
cbeach 9 minutes ago [-]
Firstly, Roe vs Wade was overturned in 2022 during the BIDEN term.

Secondly, Trump has never called for a federal abortion ban, nor, in fact, a state abortion ban.

Thirdly, there are currently exemptions in ALL states that protect abortion if it is a life-saving necessity for the mother. Trump has never proposed removing these exemptions.

gr__or 48 minutes ago [-]
Economists, a conservatively skewed bunch, are not optimistic about his plans: https://qz.com/donald-turmp-taxes-tariffs-economy-simon-john...

The majority of women are not enthusiastic about his plans on that front either

sAbakumoff 29 minutes ago [-]
I can't wait for MAGA to experience the 'hardship' that Musk has already promised. If they keep voting red after that, it's beyond stupidity.
gred 24 minutes ago [-]
Keep in mind that the left has been saying that the right has been voting against their own best interests for decades. I doubt that will change, especially if the apparent realignment along "class" lines turns out to be sustained.
tapoxi 53 minutes ago [-]
The only way to curb government spending is to completely eliminate Medicaid and Medicare at this point. If you look at the data there's simply not enough tax revenue to cover those programs with an aging population, and the Republicans were against allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices so I'm not sure they'll give the program any teeth.
gred 46 minutes ago [-]
Yeah that one has more emphasis on the "cautiously" than the "optimistic" :-) Both parties have largely ignored this issue since the Tea Party movement, but it has been mentioned somewhat prominently in this campaign.
Bost 57 minutes ago [-]
What about "If things don't go my way, I don't mind starting civil war?"
gred 44 minutes ago [-]
I haven't seen that in Trump, myself. It seems to me that a lot of the Jan 6 discussion comes down to "what was he thinking when he did X?", and the tribes either give him the benefit of the doubt or assume the worst intentions, according to their various inclinations.
agumonkey 55 minutes ago [-]
what are the most probable policies regarding russia ? since russia and iran are in the same bed i wonder how things are going
sAbakumoff 47 minutes ago [-]
Lifting all sanctions against Russia. Putin helped Trump to win this election in the end.
gred 40 minutes ago [-]
Past performance is mixed: Trump 45 used mostly the carrot with the North Koreans, but mostly the stick with the Iranians and Chinese. I think it's pretty clear that Ukraine aid will decrease, but I'm not sure how much carrot vs stick will be applied to Russia.
doublerabbit 55 minutes ago [-]
curbing government spending:

increased taxes, as per evident of the UK government switch to labour

reduce illegal immigration:

shortage of labour for mundane jobs, as evidenced by the UK brexit. We now don't have farmers to do the jobs that we all hate

protection of unborn lives

abortion aided to the protection, so now expect a baby boom crisis. Your daughter gets pregnant, now what? You have to fork the bill of either supporting or child care of others.

economic growth:

You rely on china for everything, when was the last product you looked at that had "made in the usa?

What is there to grow upon? AI/ML? CyberSecurity?

gred 36 minutes ago [-]
> curbing government spending: increased taxes, as per evident of the UK government switch to labour

Can you elaborate on this one? I don't agree with most of your takes, but this one I just didn't understand.

doublerabbit 23 minutes ago [-]
The Conservative government, right wing-- caused a "black hole" in spending. Where by for the eight years they were in power the conservatives took any income, money for the country for themselves and their bed buddies.

This includes scrapping budgets for Scotland, Wales leading a dominance in the London tax haven and sabotaging anything else progressive.

So, we've finally extinguished the conservative party with a left wing party, labour who are suppose to fight for the people but in return have just released the budget report where by instead of cutting spending they're going to increase national insurance, work taxes from next April, cut public services of schools, healthcare and pensions all in the name to get us out of this "black hole" and drain further Scotland and Wales because and increase spending.

So instead of actually tackling the issue they want the same pie that conservatives had and their slice too.

There is no recovery from this motion. I'm higher class, i'm earning over £100k a year outside of London which many could dream of. I'm lucky in evening the equivalent of $1300 I am earning a week but it's not luxury.

My mortgage on a single bedroom apartment which took forever to get is now 4x the amount it was, food quality is at its lowest.

gred 15 minutes ago [-]
Thanks for the explanation. But that sequence sounds more like "corruption -> increase taxes", or perhaps "cut taxes -> increase taxes"... not "cut costs -> increase taxes"?
sAbakumoff 50 minutes ago [-]
* curbing government spending - elon musk said that he plans cutting about $2T. It includes social security.

* reducing illegal immigration - mass deportation is a fantasy. in reality trump will not do much about it.

* protecting unborn lives - yeah, more women will die instead. good job.

* restraining Iran + proxies - yeah, Putin is a best buddy of Iranian leaders and Trump will be in their company too.

* continuing economic growth - trimp policies will lead to recession.

* Ukraine - it's utterly fucked.

* additional inflation caused by tariff - on spot. companies will not hesitate to gauge pricing more than necessary because of tariffs.

* ongoing political polarization - it's not just polarization. It will be on the edge of the civil war when Trump will order shoot protesters.

amanzi 2 hours ago [-]
“The government you elect is the government you deserve.” —Thomas Jefferson
tigroferoce 2 hours ago [-]
OK, but what about the rest of the world that doesn't get to vote for this?
blitzar 2 hours ago [-]
"The rest of the world gets the America they deserve." - Me 2024
card_zero 2 hours ago [-]
Poor Ukraine.
agumonkey 2 hours ago [-]
Ukraine might be a proxy of our future selves.
yapyap 2 hours ago [-]
yeah, literally and figuratively.

We kinda need them to keep Russia from going haywire

noobermin 49 minutes ago [-]
My honest opinion is we need a multipolar world. Then the US can do as much shit as it wants but the rest of the world doesn't have to care.
bretanac93 2 hours ago [-]
Easy, the rest of the world gets to watch, and solve their own problems.
tankenmate 2 hours ago [-]
That's the problem though isn't it. A lot of the problems don't just belong to the US, or just belong to everyone else.

The problem with isolationism is that everyone else gets to do their thing without your input.

benfortuna 2 hours ago [-]
If at all possible, I am perfectly fine with a diminishing role of the US in world politics.
smatija 2 hours ago [-]
Historically main problem of a large part of the world (from Vietnam to Yemen) is USA bombing them ...
tmoravec 2 hours ago [-]
Right now it's Russia bombing them, and Trump threatening to withdraw vital support.
DeathArrow 2 hours ago [-]
It's called "protecting democracy and freedom".
dspillett 2 hours ago [-]
Because none of the rest of the worlds problems are going to be affected at all by this turn of events…

I'm all for sitting back and watching the leopards eat US faces, I do like a little schadenfreude, but other parts of the world are going to be negatively affected too as is well documented.

wrren 2 hours ago [-]
You forget that America is the cause of many countries’ problems, see the Middle East and South America for prime examples.
t43562 2 hours ago [-]
More like the solution - Iraq threatened all of the Middle East. So does Iran. America is a security guarantee to countries who don't make a noise about it all.

As can be seen in Africa now, if America doesn't intervene then Russia or China will - there's no nice safe forum to criticise such actions in Russia. Sri Lanka - poor old Tamils got "sorted" with Chinese help.

Then the US oil price will go up no matter how isolationist it tries to be. That will hit people's pockets.

dspillett 2 hours ago [-]
> More like the solution

… goes on to suggest that the US is getting involved for everyone's good, then…

> Then the US oil price will go up … hit people's pockets.

states one of the few reasons the US political system really cares about these places in the slightest.

smatija 2 hours ago [-]
Tell that to 12 million victims of US in Korea, Iraq, Vietnam, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
crabbone 2 hours ago [-]
US is not the cause of the problems in the Middle East. It has interests in the Middle East. The problems in the region were created by the people inhabiting the region. If anything, US foreign politics sometimes come as detached from the reality of the problems of the area rather than creating those. I don't know what makes Americans take so much credit for the bad things that they hadn't contributed to all that much.
simiones 2 hours ago [-]
The US is directly responsible for millions of deaths in the Middle East.

It's supporting Israel's genocide right now, and would have continued to do so whichever candidate won.

It's arming Saudi Arabia to help its war in Yemen.

It killed hundreds of thousands in Iraq and Afghanistan, and armed the Taliban before that (back when the USSR was also killing Afghans by the hundreds of thousands).

It participated in the coup against Iran's last democratic government (together with the UK), re-installing the deposed Shah (he was later deposed yet again, but this time by fundamentalist revolutionaries, instead of the democracy that had replaced him last time). Before the revolution, they the Shah with the start of nuclear tech, which formed the basis of the current Iran nuclear program. They then supported Saddam and had him attack Iran, before later losing control of him as well.

Now, the root cause of many of the worse issues in the Middle East is in fact not the USA, but the British Empire, which drew most of the insane borders of Middle East states that are causing problems to this day. But the USA proudly took on the mantle of main meddler in the region in the last 50-70 years.

crabbone 55 minutes ago [-]
Millions of deaths? Where do you get your numbers from? The bloodiest war in the Middle East, the Syrian Civil War maybe has a million killed... all other conflicts in this area have low two-digit figures. Iraqi campaign, since the very start in 2003 has total killed at around 100k-200k, which, I believe, is the second bloodiest war in that area.

To give this some context: Iran-Iraq war, where US didn't really participate, scored 1m-2m deaths.

And of those killed in the conflicts, overwhelming majority were killed by the locals, in order to further some local ideology, gain some local control etc.

Military, I'd imagine, US may be directly responsible for some couple thousands deaths, maybe dozens of thousands. But that's it. US has absolutely no reason to waste troops and ammo on killing a bunch of nobodies in ME. That furthers no military or political goals. Even if you believe that US is colonial / militaristic or whatever other sticker you like, US is pragmatic in what it's doing. There's just no point in killing many people. It's a waste of resources.

Also, you obviously have never been to ME, and have no clue of what's going on there right now. The idea that Israel is somehow performing genocide is, again, laughable. Yes, they don't care about how many people in Gaza will die. But that's it. They don't care. The Israelis want the deplorables behind the fence to stop launching rockets at them. If that means that the civilians will die behind the fence--so be it. Genocide is when a state kills off everyone belonging to a particular group, no matter what that group does. Israeli military nor police nor any other force has no programs of exterminating Gazans. It's just not useful, there's nothing to be gained from it. And it would've been a huge investment in terms of paying salaries to the force hired to perform the alleged genocide, to organize the logistics around it etc. It's truly bizarre how someone can come up with such b/s ideas and never have a reality check.

The same, I imagine, goes for Saudi Arabia. They don't want the deplorables from Yemen to shoot at their oil drilling installations. They don't care about the lives of the people on the other side of the fence. In fact, they probably don't see them as people at all. But they don't care enough about them to organize a genocide. That's just too expensive, unproductive and wasteful.

As for Iran, you are missing the point: US has interests in the area, that's why they choose to side with this or the other political / social group and support / oppose some groups. They aren't responsible for what those groups want or do. The Iranian revolution happened because people in Iran revolted. Not because US organized it.

simiones 23 minutes ago [-]
The "millions" figure is related to all of the people who died in wars started or cheered on by the USA. I wasn't trying to suggest that the US military has shot millions of people in the ME.

The Iran-Iraq war was supported by the USA, who armed Saddam as long as he promised to attack Iran, to try to take back control of, or at least punish, Iran after the Islamist revolution.

> The idea that Israel is somehow performing genocide is, again, laughable.

This is not just wrong, it's not even debatable today. Every single international organization that has analyzed the situation, from the UN, ICC, ICJ, journalist organizations, NGOs, even medical orgs: they all agree that a genocide is happening there. All senior Israeli officials (president, prime minister, defense minister, finance minister, and others) have said that they intend to punish the people of Gaza for October 7th (collective punishment is a form of genocide). I can find quotes, all from Israeli media or their own Twitter accounts, I had a collection of them once. Plus, they have destroyed every single hospital, university, and high-school in Gaza. They have forced the entire population to move from the North to the South, and then kept attacking them there as well. There is no other name whatsoever for what Israel is doing than genocide.

> They don't want the deplorables from Yemen to shoot at their oil drilling installations. They don't care about the lives of the people on the other side of the fence.

The war is about more than that (those "deplorables" are Iran aligned, a traditional enemy of SA). But it's irrelevant: the problem is that we know they're killing people quasi-indiscriminately (though nowhere near the wanton destruction that Israel unleashed in Gaza, especially in terms of leveling all civilian infrastructure), and yet the USA is still arming Saudi Arabia to facilitate this. So, the USA bears at least some responsibility for the deaths of all of those Yemenis.

> The Iranian revolution happened because people in Iran revolted. Not because US is organized it.

Sure, the Islamist revolution was not caused by the USA. But the coup against Mossadegh, the one that re-installed the US and UK puppet Shah, was indeed organized by the CIA. You had Iran go from a despotic king to a democracy, and then the UK and USA conspired to bring down this democracy and re-install the despotic king. And then proceeded to arm this king, including trying to help him build nuclear weapons. When the people rose again against the despot, the second time they were more radicalized than the first time, which has now made Iran one of the most dangerous countries in the region - including a nuclear weapons program that the USA helped start.

crabbone 51 seconds ago [-]
> Every single international organization that has analyzed the situation, from the UN, ICC, ICJ

Every single hand-picked organization you mean? The organizations that act on identity politics of being Muslim / Arabs and wanting to trample Israel for religious / identity reasons you mean? Yeah... that's about right. The rest can be explained by Israel being a US ally, when it's not for the fact that Muslims just want to slaughter Jews if given a chance. The countries / governments that campaign against Israel do it so that they can stick it up to the US, but in the way they don't directly confront the US, because they are too scared of the repercussions.

> have said that they intend to punish the people of Gaza

And? Where's genocide in that? Where are the concentration camps, the gas chambers, the paramilitary force guarding the camps and executing prisoners? Where's all that? Yes, of course they want to punish people responsible for Israelis' death. Why wouldn't anyone? Do they send them in droves into gas chambers? -- Absolutely not.

> collective punishment is a form of genocide

Really? By whose definition? What about riding in a sled and saying ho-ho-ho? Is that a form of genocide too? Gazans are being collectively punished by denying them work permits in Israel. Is that a genocide? If so, then I have really bad news for you...

Ultimately, Gazans are the culprit of Gazans' problems. They started this war. They had dozens of off-ramps to stop it. They could surrender any time they want, and their beloved infrastructure would've been spared. They have a death wish, and Israel doesn't feel like stopping them from throwing themselves on the bayonets.

nathanaldensr 2 hours ago [-]
If you cared to ask you will discover that a huge cohort of people "on the right" do not want the US involved in foreign entanglements, including with Israel.
cmrdporcupine 2 hours ago [-]
Imagine thinking and saying something this parochial and isolationist in an era of massive, evident climate change.

Wow.

justin66 2 hours ago [-]
Political solutions for the rest of the world would appear to include increasing the amount of money you spend on your national defense and/or the amount of money you spend renting rooms at Trump International Hotel Washington D.C to curry favor.
nathanaldensr 2 hours ago [-]
They have their own countries with candidates to consider. They should mind their own business and US citizens should mind theirs. The US needs to move closer to isolationist policies for that reason.
dewey 2 hours ago [-]
Very naive view of a very globalized and connected world.
nazka 1 hours ago [-]
It was true 2 centuries ago. In the age we are now where each country is interconnected at every level of a society (economy, culture, trade, innovation, research, military…) that’s not possible anymore. WW2 showed it. You can’t play head in the sand and think that everything will be fine. Since then every major economy drawbacks showed the world we live today is all interconnected and interdependent. And that’s the same for any other type of backlash or drawbacks from politics, alliances, society…
poincaredisk 2 hours ago [-]
As the rest of the world, why would I care about elections results on another continent? US should sort their problems themselves. I don't even want a vote, our countries are independent from each other and we both decide for our own.
black_puppydog 2 hours ago [-]
As someone with a german passport (federal elections next year) and living in france (next presidential in 2027) I do care. Europe is next. Make no mistake, the money that bought this election will try to get the european power houses at a discount, now that they have an ally in the white house.
simiones 2 hours ago [-]
The money in this election was mostly on Harris' side. It lost. It's not money that decided this election, it's hubris and bold face lying by a charlatan.
DiscourseFan 2 hours ago [-]
They probably will. The EU is a neoliberal institution; it is not long for this world.
tankenmate 2 hours ago [-]
But most of the truly thorny problems aren't "owned" by any one country.
crabbone 2 hours ago [-]
I'm an Israeli who was born in Ukraine and lives in the Netherlands. And I care a lot about the outcome of the US election because of Israeli military partnership that is going to be affected by the new administration and because of the new US administration trying to break free from NATO, which will put my livelihood and that of those close to me in danger due to the looming war with Russia. Not to mention that I don't expect to see a lot of the male classmates to show up at the next class reunion because of how US foreign policies will affect the war in Ukraine.
verisimi 2 hours ago [-]
Migrants in S. American states care!
vinni2 2 hours ago [-]
Tell that to the Puerto Ricans.
2 hours ago [-]
shafyy 2 hours ago [-]
Sadly, this is not true under neoliberal capitalism. With the correct oversimplified messaging and a lot of money, you can influence a lot of people to behave a certain way.
blitzar 2 hours ago [-]
The quote rings true then - If people are influenced in such a trivial manner then they deserve the outcome.
amarcheschi 2 hours ago [-]
We definitely had microtargeting ads by the trump team to make Harris look bad with conflicting messages, we also define had a musk PAC collect data in an unethical way to eventually do door to door canvas for Trump, and it goes without saying that one of the biggest social network in the US is skewed towards conspiracies (musk posted a video endorsement of Trump yesterday where the Q letter appeared together with Trump and similar bullshit)

Here's something I did about his PAC data collection https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41148139

Here's about Trump targeted ads https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41887642

data_maan 29 minutes ago [-]
[flagged]
22 minutes ago [-]
casenmgreen 1 hours ago [-]
There's a story Winston Churchill tells of, of an old man who lived a long life on his death bed surrounded by his family, where one of his grand-children asks him for the dying man's advice about life.

The man thinks for a moment and then says : "I've seen a lot of trouble in my life, most of which never happened".

We can all now think of a million ways in which Trump will be a disaster.

I predict that bad as he will be, most of what we now worry about will not happen.

36 minutes ago [-]
VonGuard 2 hours ago [-]
Fuck.
mbix77 2 hours ago [-]
Sad day for the world.
bigodbiel 37 minutes ago [-]
Putin, Xi, the New Totalitarian World Order: Won A very dark chapter in human history is about to start and all from "our" own free will.
sanmon3186 1 hours ago [-]
Maybe it's just my echo chamber but people in India seemed more pro-Trump. This is despite Kamala having Indian roots. People usually take pride when anyone with Indian ancestry doing great on the world stage.
manquer 37 minutes ago [-]
> despite Kamala having Indian roots.

She hasn't really embraced that, although being raised by her indian mother and presumably closer to her than her Jamaican father, she hasn't her visited her ancestral village or come in her official capacity or been part of any major India - US initiatives.

Indians like diaspora who actually embrace their identity, there is comparable example with Rishi Sunak, his achievements was celebrated because he made the effort to connect, although Indians(in India) would disapprove of his and Tory policies around immigration.

lm28469 39 minutes ago [-]
> This is despite Kamala having Indian roots

I'd imagine most people can see past origins and skin colors, especially when it's such a shaky argument. You don't support someone just because their mom were born in your country 70 years ago

ImaCake 49 minutes ago [-]
I mean Modi is (was?) the member of a radical nationalist hindu milita from the age of 8. Modi has been popularly elected multiple times so seeing someone similar win the US election is probably what you want to see if you are a BJP voter.
47 minutes ago [-]
lgvln 58 minutes ago [-]
This is sad to hear. I guess Trump’s values (whatever they might be) resonated more with them than Harris’s progressive liberal values.
sidcool 2 hours ago [-]
What? Why? I am genuinely curious. I am not an American, so can't vote or have a strong opinion. Trump is weird, but does it spell doom?
zmmmmm 1 hours ago [-]
It probably does in terms of averting climate change. Of course he might indulge Elon and remove all nuclear restrictions and save the world, who knows. But the chance of persuading the globe towards collective action seems ludicrously out of reach in time to avert pretty severe outcomes.
siffin 39 minutes ago [-]
The world needs to build over 400 nuclear plants starting right now to replace fossil fuel energy needs, even with about a 33% reduction in global energy consumption.

That means a new plant starting up every 3 days. Any slower and it's not enough. This was data from a couple of years ago as well. We're never going to get close, even if Elon himself is modern jesus.

Tainnor 1 hours ago [-]
From a European perspective, many here are very worried that Trump is going to end support for Ukraine and that Putin will be allowed free reign.
corpMaverick 40 minutes ago [-]
Leaving aside what Trump can do. It is sad to realize that a person with so many character faults documented in public can reach the presidency of such powerful country. You loose hope on humanity and wonder if liberal democracies can actually last.
ramchip 1 hours ago [-]
I'm not American either, but I see a war going on between authoritarian states and democratic ones, and Trump supporting the wrong side.

It deeply concerns me from a human rights perspective and also on a personal security level because I live near Taiwan.

I've also felt the impact of disinformation and conspiration theories spreading from the US to my country and I fear it's only going to get worse.

guerrilla 1 hours ago [-]
The entire world will be affected. Trade wars against China and Europe, the loss of Ukraine, the end of Palestine, war with Iran, potential dissolution of NATO and that's only what's likely. Who knows what other shit is coming down the sewer.
haizhung 1 hours ago [-]
Not talk of basically losing all prospective of doing something against climate change.
badpun 56 minutes ago [-]
Most people already believed climate change won't be mitigated.
csomar 1 hours ago [-]
Blue brain washing. I am not holding my hopes high but with Trump we will probably have less wars, less trade wars, less inflation and a better economy.
_ink_ 1 hours ago [-]
How exactly will tariffs lead to less inflation?
amai 2 hours ago [-]
But a good day for USA. With Trump winning a civil war is avoided.
fullstackchris 2 hours ago [-]
Civil war is a bit of an overstatement for what would again be a bunch of clowns trying to storm the capitol
aaron695 5 hours ago [-]
Prediction markets had this a fair few hours ago, which is interesting.

https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-20...

There was a blip with the sweep though which is also interesting - https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2024-election?...

creato 3 hours ago [-]
The prediction markets pretty closely tracked NYT's probability estimate, which seems like the best possible analysis of the available data (partial current results, complete past results, at the precinct level).

Anything else would have been surprising.

rapsey 3 hours ago [-]
And the pollsters were all so wrong. I guess we are in a new era of prediction markets.
JumpCrisscross 3 hours ago [-]
> the pollsters were all so wrong

They were wrong by about 3 points nationally, which is a normal error.

kookamamie 2 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
baq 2 hours ago [-]
Like Europe didn't have issues with democracy and general economy.

Regards, an European.

DeathArrow 2 hours ago [-]
Economically Europe is pretty much doomed.
DavidPiper 2 hours ago [-]
Source(s)?

(Serious question, not a European)

depr 2 hours ago [-]
Fiscally conservative countries (Germany, the Netherlands and others in the Frugal Four) in the EU have for a long time preached countries must "balance their budgets". Now Germany balanced too hard and didn't invest enough, their car companies are experiencing a decline while the Chinese companies are growing, and the rest of their industry got addicted to cheap gas which isn't available anymore. The UK left the EU. And the EU is incapable of creating large tech companies.
RMPR 2 hours ago [-]
One data point is the debt crisis France found itself in.

https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/10/11/frances-emergen...

jansan 2 hours ago [-]
Germany is in a slow death spiral. What you are seeing right now is basically the scene from Animal Farm where Boxer, the working horse, has been injured [1]. The burden on the productively working citizens is growing, because money is required to finance the migration policy, oversized healthcare system, the huge pension payments for the ageing population (there is no pension fund) and government spending. Also, tax revenue is shrinking(!). The current government is asleep at the steering wheel, so industry may continue to leave the country, which will again reduce tax revenue, so the government will have to further increase the burden on the productive sector, which will again result in weakening the economy.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xzklsnBTzc

dmichulke 2 hours ago [-]
- Declining manufacturing

- declining GDP

- higher (st?) energy prices across the board

- dependency on the US for energy and defense

- unelected EU government

jgrahamc 2 hours ago [-]
I'm European and I 100% disagree with the characterization that I'm sitting here thinking "America, what are you doing?".
n4r9 2 hours ago [-]
To be fair, you're not a typical European (or Brit). Out of curiosity what are you thinking?
jgrahamc 2 hours ago [-]
The comment I responded to could be interpreted as "America, I don't understand what you're doing" or "America, I disagree strongly with what you're doing". I was responding to the former.

I am simply unsurprised by the result. It was obvious for a long time that he had a good chance of winning and appealed to a lot of people. The result is likely going to show him winning the electoral college and the popular vote. Sounds like democracy doing its thing.

n4r9 2 hours ago [-]
I understand. After the assassination attempt I was sure Trump would get an easy win, but then Harris replaced Biden and the polls reversed, and I guess I got my hopes up.
tomrod 2 hours ago [-]
I can't speak for OP, but typically "Refugee Bad" is a stance I see regularly among rightwingers.

We really do need a rebuild of the Civilian Conservation Corp, which built out massive infrastructure in the US. Not Potemkim style infra like ghost cities, but infra that is needed and useful. Bridges, dams, solar and wind, dikes, etc. Paired with effective economic and trade policy and you get a golden age for a few decades.

People contributing to the economy and building infrastructure results in a lot of knock on benefits.

VonGuard 2 hours ago [-]
Being incredibly stupid.

Example: I heard the leader of the West Coast Vintage Computer Club remark, recently "Well, the problem is the Department of Education! We need to get rid of that!"

kookamamie 2 hours ago [-]
The entire Project 2025 gives me chills, to be honest. I know Trump has distanced himself from it previously, but who knows what will he actually do when given the keys to the country.
VonGuard 2 hours ago [-]
The dumber the people, the more they love Trump. It's a legit strategy, but I never thought people who'd benefited from American' education would buy into this shit and pull up the ladder!
oytis 2 hours ago [-]
Europe is doing the same though.
ben_w 2 hours ago [-]
I don't claim perfect knowledge of the 30-ish countries in Europe, but I've not heard of any of us reelecting a double-impeached convicted felon where the impeachments were for (1) abuse of power and obstruction of Congress and (2) incitement of insurrection; and the 34 felonies he's been convicted for were related to misreporting finances related to hush money relevant to a potential scandal that could have influenced the 2016 election, while also being on trial for another 54 related to mishandling of classified documents.

Even Boris Johnson didn't mange all that mess.

oytis 2 hours ago [-]
Details might differ, the big picture is pretty much the same. The left-wing are shy and try not to annoy the voter base by being too radical, while the right-wing are getting more aggressive and outspoken. And still the right-wing mostly win the elections. Literal fascists in Italy, right-wing populists in Hungary, Slovakia and Netherlands. And the upcoming elections in Germany is not going to be very good either - we basically get to vote between right-wing traitors and just right-wingers. People en-masse don't value freedom, human rights or rule of law any more, I wouldn't think there are any hurdles to get Europeans to vote convicted felons either.
DeathArrow 2 hours ago [-]
Hopefully.
HipstaJules 2 hours ago [-]
We have a war in Europe right now.
bagels 1 hours ago [-]
Not for long. Some countries now get to be neighbors with Russia instead.
conradfr 2 hours ago [-]
With Trump elected and the Senate changing majority I'm not sure it will go past the three years mark.
manamorphic 2 hours ago [-]
In all fairness, as an EU citizen, if I was American I'd vote Trump. The Harris campaign was very weak and built on identity politics that as we saw is a double edged sword. And why should USA care about Europe? I mean, yes, unfortunate for Ukraine, but it's not necessarily their problem, no matter how much people make it out to be. We in Europe need to grow some balls and not be dependent on who is the next US president.
n4r9 1 hours ago [-]
> unfortunate for Ukraine, but it's not necessarily their problem

It seems like it absolutely is the US's problem, albeit indirectly. If Russia gets the outcome it wants in Ukraine, they'll have access to rich mineral deposits, vast quantities of grain, and nuclear power, boosting their economy and their status as a rival world power to the US. It will signal to Putin that he can be aggressive towards other neighbouring countries with little pushback. The war has resulted in a growing alliance between Russia, Iran and North Korea which is altering global military power dynamics and not in the US's favour. Also, China is watching what's happening with eagle eyes to determine whether to invade Taiwan, which would definitely escalate the US's engagement.

2 hours ago [-]
wvh 2 hours ago [-]
It's coming. Left vs right, rich vs poor, socialism vs capitalism, men vs women, LGBTQ* vs straight, immigrant vs native, religion vs religion (amongst those who still have faith, with the rest as collateral).

As an apolitical person, I've been pretty down and worried about the near future for the last 15-20 years in this post-truth society. The more science and data we have, the more we throw away the rational and retreat into our own emotional blind spots and dark psychological hang-ups. Across the board.

But this too shall pass.

agumonkey 2 hours ago [-]
It seems that the web/2010+ era is not good at creating coherent information / pedagogy. We have access to a lot more data, but most people end up regressing as followers of tiktok celebs. Internet created an anthropoligical wild west.
lupusreal 2 hours ago [-]
The working class is struggling to afford eggs and incumbent party campaigned on social stuff and the opposition's shitty personal history. Things people don't give a fuck about if they can't afford eggs.
wvh 2 hours ago [-]
Not American, not political, but this. What the hell is the left doing but focussing on a few ideological fringe fights?
dialup_sounds 2 hours ago [-]
The price of eggs has gone up primarily due to bird flu, which doesn't care who you voted for.
twixfel 2 hours ago [-]
How much are eggs in the US? I just did some googling and I assume the sources are wrong because all the prices they quote for eggs are really low.
master-lincoln 1 hours ago [-]
> Eggs US increased 2.22 USD/DOZEN [to 4.41USD] or 101.37% since the beginning of 2024, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Historically, Eggs US reached an all time high of 5.29 in December of 2022.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eggs-us

twixfel 1 hours ago [-]
Sounds affordable.
teractiveodular 2 hours ago [-]
Commodities in the US are often cheap by European standards. Gas for $4/gallon is considered outrageously expensive in the US, meanwhile in the Netherlands it's close to €2/L, or $8/gallon.
card_zero 1 hours ago [-]
They more than doubled in price in December, and now they cost the same as in the UK, it's tragic.
twixfel 1 hours ago [-]
Doesn't sounds like they're unaffordable to working class people at all then. They're affordable in the UK and working class Americans are richer than working class Brits.
eecc 2 hours ago [-]
Wait, what’s this meme? Wasn’t the price of eggs something big in Russia? https://podcasts.apple.com/nl/podcast/in-moscows-shadows/id1...
konart 45 minutes ago [-]
Butter. Prices for butter climed so high we have to import it from UAE.
2 hours ago [-]
ryukoposting 2 hours ago [-]
Hell if I know.

- Wisconsin

jeffhuys 2 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
stouset 2 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
throw_m239339 2 hours ago [-]
My Ukrainian friends want the war to stop at all cost, they are on the brink and all help goes to the military effort... my friends in Lvov can't feed themselves and have to go dig mushrooms... they don't care who wins, they just want peace. NATO sustaining that war just to save face isn't peace. Trump is an opportunity to end that war the democrats have sustained.
ben_w 2 hours ago [-]
Ukraine has the motive, means and opportunity to rapidly develop nuclear weapons. From a military analyst I have reason to trust due to long term accuracy and lack of click bait, "months" rather than years.

The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, signed by Belarus, Khazakstan, Ukraine, Russia, the US, and the UK, obliging respect for signatories' borders and sovereignty, territorial integrity, economic security… is also what put Ukraine into the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

dbspin 2 hours ago [-]
Fellow European here - I think we have different Ukranian friends. All mine were bitterly frustrated at Biden's failure to properly support them militarily, and resigned to having to fight to the death if Trump orders they secede to Russia. There is zero popular support in Ukraine for 'giving up', since it would likely mean mass murder, and the end of Ukraine as an independent state.
2 hours ago [-]
sekai 2 hours ago [-]
> they don't care who wins, they just want peace.

And what happens when Russia invades again after a few years with a revitalized military?

kookamamie 2 hours ago [-]
I want the Ukraine war to stop, too. However, I do not want it to stop at any cost, if that means that Ukraine will need to surrender its land to Moscow and to agree to being part of Russia (again).

This will send the wrong signal to Putin, and prove his model of acquiring buffer areas around Russia actually works - next on the list are the Baltics, and Moldova perhaps.

I'm going to be in the trenches as soon as they get ideas about Finland - and you do not want that.

scrollaway 2 hours ago [-]
European here (French, been helping Ukraine since the full scale invasion started).

We have no business relying on the US anymore. They are too far gone. Their political rhethorics are polluted by Russian propaganda. (Just look at the rest of the comments here...)

It's time to get busy defending ourselves. Time for a war effort that doesn't involve merely wearing flag pins or doing cute street protests.

We need to be funding our own defence. We need to be sending actual troops in Ukraine, not just weapons. No more of this sidelines bullshit.

guerrilla 2 hours ago [-]
This account definitely does not represent the Ukrainian community.
whoitwas 58 minutes ago [-]
[flagged]
smackeyacky 1 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
account42 27 minutes ago [-]
Unsurprisingly, "being a woman" is not enough to get elected.
lgvln 1 hours ago [-]
Calling him a fascist would be an understatement
siffin 51 minutes ago [-]
It's true, not all fascists are also necessarily convicted sexual abusers, amongst a host of no doubt other horrible things.
astkaasa 3 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
kazinator 3 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
slau 3 hours ago [-]
Grover Cleveland would like a word. He won the popular vote 3 times in a row, but lost the EC vote in 1888.

Edit: I’m amazed all 3 replies to the parent comment used the phrasing “would like a word”.

imjonse 2 hours ago [-]
same initial prompt, different temperature and max_new_token settings.
Shawnj2 3 hours ago [-]
Grover Cleveland would like a word (also I think that Biden will be harder on Putin than Trump but idk)
luigi23 2 hours ago [-]
Grover Cleveland would like a word
selimthegrim 3 hours ago [-]
Um, a 19th century Democrat philanderer might want a word from the grave.
casenmgreen 56 minutes ago [-]
Do we have any sense of to what extent Russian interference played a part in the outcome?
bigodbiel 36 minutes ago [-]
I don't think it mattered much. It was the will of most Americans to join the Russians.
thrwfox 1 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
throwtts 2 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
innocentdang 3 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
ivvve 2 hours ago [-]
Please don't be histrionic, this is the last place that needs it.
jansan 3 hours ago [-]
I don't think Hackernews should multiply the emotions of some of its users.
throwaway241106 3 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
thedrbrian 2 hours ago [-]
weird how Harris is so in favour of my body my choice but not like that.
truthsocial99 1 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
whoitwas 1 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
thefounder 3 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
jpmoral 3 hours ago [-]
Regardless of your views on DEI, why should that be up to the government?
thefounder 2 hours ago [-]
Because discrimination is bad and I don’t like to be told that I have to use a x race, gender, sexual orientation in the lead role of “my movie”.
zmgsabst 2 hours ago [-]
The government sponsors a number of DIE programs.

Also, it can enforce a ban on the discrimination we saw at Harvard and UNC (and which pervades institutions, both university and business).

01jonny01 1 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
dennis_jeeves2 46 minutes ago [-]
[flagged]
3 hours ago [-]
5 hours ago [-]
icar 2 hours ago [-]
How is this relevant to HackerNews?
_ink_ 1 hours ago [-]
Are you suggesting that politics has no influence on the tech world?
ImaCake 35 minutes ago [-]
Especially considering that Peter Thiel, who was a partner at Y Combinator, was fairly involved in the Republican Ticket. This is very on topic for HN and rightfully so, even if the comments are a mess.
flanked-evergl 1 hours ago [-]
HN is simply following the trend of sacrificing institutional capital for political goals. Trust in media is at an all-time low because they too decided to sacrifice institutional capital for political goals, and now they have neither institutional capital nor their political goals, and that's a good thing.
sidcool 2 hours ago [-]
HN is mainly American audience. So it's something rest of the world has to bear.
siffin 25 minutes ago [-]
As someone in a small but wealthy western nation, the US elections are far more important than our own. We can't destroy the world, they can.
hnfong 2 minutes ago [-]
hear hear
schnitzelstoat 2 hours ago [-]
This affects the whole world though.

The USA is the economic and military hegemon and by a large margin too.

maxehmookau 1 hours ago [-]
How is it not relevant? The US election has wide-reaching effects for technology workers across the US and the world.
jonathanstrange 2 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
3 hours ago [-]
submeta 3 hours ago [-]
The Democrats lost because many voted for Jil Stein, didn‘t vote or voted for Trump! Why? Because Democrats fully supported Israel‘s slaughter in Gaza, done by an ultra fascist government in Israel. That’s why the Dems lost. And Trump won.
Maken 2 hours ago [-]
It is probably one of the factors, but not the only one. Or maybe it's part of the "not a meaningful difference" factor.
hughesjj 3 hours ago [-]
Statistically no. Stein has 0% vote in most swing states.
lynndotpy 2 hours ago [-]
I am also critical of Israel's far-right government and their brutal war, and I was also worried that the protest vote might swing the election. But this narrative is not supported by the numbers we're seeing.

Even in Michigan, Trump has a lead of >100K. Stein is at 36K, and RFK and the Libertarian party have a combined 47K. The Uncommitted Movement mobilized otherwise-unlikely voters.

selimthegrim 3 hours ago [-]
Trump in MI had more of a lead than the 100k gap that went to Stein
rapsey 3 hours ago [-]
Removing Lina Khan and Gary Gensler from their positions will do wonders for the tech industry.
jarbus 56 minutes ago [-]
Lina Khan has been fantastic imo, even for tech. I think she forces companies to compete where we actually want competition, and not let us rely on insane levels of lock in
EdwardDiego 3 hours ago [-]
Won't be great for consumers though, at least Khan.
ramoz 3 hours ago [-]
As an American who grew from nothing, served in the military, and expanded in my career -

I find the concerns for Democracy comical.

Most of you do not understand the type of people that built and fought for democracy. There is no real fear amongst these same type of people in modern America.

aibrahem 2 hours ago [-]
As someone who spent most of his life in a dictatorship, I don’t think you appreciate how easily a society can slide into a totalitarian state and how apathetic most of the population can become.

It’s also interesting that you served in the U.S. military and didn’t recognize how self-serving and institutionally corrupt it is. I come from a country with an oversized military relative to its government, and the parallels I can draw between its behavior and that of the U.S. Army are uncanny.

dalmo3 11 minutes ago [-]
> I don’t think you appreciate how easily a society can slide into a totalitarian state and how apathetic most of the population can become.

We all lived through 2020-22, yes.

ramoz 2 hours ago [-]
I appreciate what you’ve been through.

However, comparing American society with one of the Middle East does not resonate with me. That goes hand in hand with comparing a military of a dictatorship with one of a democracy.

aibrahem 30 minutes ago [-]
There is nothing inherently special about Americans that makes them more democratic. I agree we shouldn't compare the U.S. with Middle Eastern countries; they were never democratic in the first place. A more appropriate comparison would be with the German Weimar Republic, where a charismatic leader managed to overthrow democracy.

Many people raised in democratic societies don't fully understand the intricacies of the relationship between the military and dictatorships; they see the military as a tool in the dictator's hand to wield at will. This couldn't be further from the truth. A (strong) military in a dictatorship is its own institution, largely isolated from the rest of society and granted its own perks and benefits. The dictator can wield the military only to the extent that it aligns with the institution's goals. Competent ones try to align the military's goals with their own; incompetent ones get overthrown.

Because of this isolation from broader society, the officers and soldiers believe that what is good for the institution is good for the country. They're not suppressing their citizens; they believe they are protecting the republic.

The U.S. Army is already operating as an isolated entity from broader U.S. society. Monetary corruption is quite substantial—consider the medium- to high-ranking officers and their relationships and revolving doors with defense contractors.

I'm not saying the U.S. is going to become -insert non-democratic country here-, but if we ignore the usual Western caricature of Stalinist-style dictatorships and realize that there are multiple forms of eroding democracy, you'll start to understand why it's not such a far-fetched idea.

mlnj 34 minutes ago [-]
Trump has already floated

- Imprisoning criticizers

- Removing the broadcast licenses of news network that questions him. He's been calling them fake news for years.

- More power to the rich buddies. Not just more money, now they get more control over government affairs. Musk and Thiel are frothing over this.

- Control over women and minorities.

- More power to the theists.

Looks like "comparing American society with one of the Middle East does not resonate with me." will soon become apparent as the parallels start to be clearer.

ramoz 29 minutes ago [-]
Right, you’d be better off without any media that convinces you of this fear. /s
julkali 2 hours ago [-]
As a non-American, my personal concern for Democracy in regards to the USA is the questionable system of the electoral college which, in my opinion, is one of the worst forms of representative democracy on the planet and certainly not apt for a country so proud of its democratic values.

This also goes hand-in-hand with the black-white thinking of a two-party-system.

seanp2k2 2 hours ago [-]
A good dive into the history of the electoral college can be found at https://www.hks.harvard.edu/more/policycast/if-electoral-col...
briandear 2 hours ago [-]
Is the EU president elected by popular vote?
simonask 39 minutes ago [-]
There is no president of the EU.

There is a President of the European Council (Charles Michel, elected by member countries' heads of state), there is a President of the European Commission (Ursula von der Leyen, elected by the European Parliament), and there is a President of the European Parliament (Roberta Metsola, elected by the members of the parliament).

Seats in the European Parliament are not proportionally allocated (small countries have more seats per capita), and member countries have different systems for allocating their seats among representatives, but nobody uses first-past-the-post, maybe except Hungary (debatably - their system is weird).

So, no, none of the "EU presidents" are elected by popular vote strictly speaking, and none of them have a role that is even remotely similar to the US presidency.

bigodbiel 35 minutes ago [-]
America joined the ranks of Russia and China. If you think Democracy isn't threatened, then you believe it never existed
i_love_limes 2 hours ago [-]
Other high ranking military officers that have worked closely with Trump disagree. I might be inclined to believe them over you, unless you've also worked with Trump? Or are you just someone that he would call a 'sucker'?

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/22/us/politics/john-kelly-tr...

ramoz 2 hours ago [-]
Yes you should listen to an actual grift and live in fear.

People like me won’t. You not being able to resonate is what makes you and I different - and one of us capable of defending freedom and the other not.

TrackerFF 2 hours ago [-]
See, this is a real problem in the US.

People assume that there's going to be some grand take-over event, a third-world coup d'état if you will.

In reality, modern democracies die slowly. Russia was once a democracy, now it's democracy on paper only. What will Americans do, when their courts are infringing their freedom?

Again, it happens slowly. Bit by bit, in the boring court rooms.

e40 40 minutes ago [-]
This is why people don’t fear what is coming, they have no clue about history.
ramoz 31 minutes ago [-]
This is a false history narrative about Russia. Your insight is tarnished.
mlnj 39 minutes ago [-]
Decades of defunding and weakening education does that to you.
ramoz 2 hours ago [-]
What Russia are you talking about?

The brief highly instable 1990s after the Soviet collapse that was followed by Putin’s rapid consolidation of power?

j-krieger 3 hours ago [-]
Hopefully, the economy will recover with him as president.
pavlov 2 hours ago [-]
Recover? It’s better than ever on every actual metric.

But I do look forward to February 2025, when journalists will once again travel to rural Pennsylvania to interview Trump voters in diners who will say that the economy is amazing now that the Great Man has been in power for a whole week. The magic of recovery!

e40 42 minutes ago [-]
This will absolutely happen. Within days of taking office he will take credit for the “great” economy and his followers will eat it up.
TheAlchemist 3 hours ago [-]
Can you explain a bit ?

As somebody not living in US, that's surprising. My opinion is that Democrats did a really shit job - focusing on wrong problems, promoting stuff nobody cares about etc. Trump / Musk did appeal to a lot of people for different reasons, some of which I can understand. But both are grifters and very dangerous in my view.

ThinkBeat 2 hours ago [-]
He has not won yet. Perhaps there may be a last minute change.

If the results remain roughly where they are now, then that is one important positive outcome.. and I would say exactly the same if the election had gone the other way.d

If it had been as close, or closer than last time, then who becomes presient is nearly random, as WP once wrote, and an enormous amount of drama would ensue. Which it might still do depending how tight the swing states are.

As it looks now it will be a solid win.

sidcool 2 hours ago [-]
The odds of a reversal are so low now, it's practically useless.
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