I participated as a subject in a research study at Stanford involving race and stereotype threat in the early 2000s. The details are hazy, but the final readout was the distance I put my chair to a group of chairs that students of a particular racial group were supposed to sit. Evidently I put them in a position that was contrary to the effect the researcher was seeking. She intensely asked me a ton of questions about my background and eventually tossed my data point for having lived in a racially diverse area growing up. This wasn't a pre-inclusion criteria, but a possible act of scientific fraud. Huge bummer since there are honest people in every profession, and I imagine a lot of them didn't succeed the way that the fraudsters thrived.
ndileas 1 days ago [-]
I've had a similar experience in a long running survey. When I gave the "wrong" answers, the interviewer asked a bunch of questions and eventually told me to skip certain questions.
mitthrowaway2 22 hours ago [-]
I had an experience like that where an education researcher was attempting to prove that a certain style of teaching was more effective. It involved a test measuring how much students remembered from a conventionally-taught course taken the year before; the researchers hoped to show that these scores were low, and therefore that conventional teaching methods were ineffective. I and another classmate aced the test so the researcher accused us of cheating, even though there was no incentive to cheat (the test wasn't used for any grade, so if anything, the incentive was to save time by leaving answers blank). We denied cheating, explained that the course instruction had been very memorable, and proved it by correctly answering followup questions on the spot. Ultimately our high-scoring test results were discarded as outliers and the hypothesis was successfully validated.
bjourne 5 hours ago [-]
Usually psychology studies are conducted by field workers or assistants. I don't think the person you interacted with was the actual author of the study.
freehorse 3 hours ago [-]
Grad students and post-docs are often running studies.
freehorse 6 hours ago [-]
> a possible act of scientific fraud
It sounds more like another day in vegas for the psychology field of that era. This was not an exception, and often researchers were not even aware they were doing something wrong. Even nowadays psychology researchers are clueless as to what really p-hacking and bad statistical practices mean. And because they consider themselves honest researchers, while these practices are obviously dishonest, they do not consider themselves actually doing anything like that - but somebody else may! it is always somebody else. Now it is not as bad as that period, and there is more awareness about the most blunt violations of statistical rigour, but the actual understanding is still low for the median researcher so many grey-to-black zones exist still.
peterfirefly 2 hours ago [-]
> and often researchers were not even aware they were doing something wrong.
Unfortunately true. In other words: "often researchers were too stupid to ever have been let into university as freshmen".
greentxt 5 hours ago [-]
Incentives determine outcomes. Most grad students are grad students because they are responding to incentives. It's competitive so cheating is ubiquituous. Reduce competition in academia and problems would lessen.
armoredkitten 2 days ago [-]
As someone who went through grad studies in the field, and who has met Dr. Inzlicht in person before, I have to say I deeply appreciate his perspective. He has consistently been humble when facing the issues in the field, in ways that call even his own previous research (following the typical practices of the day) into question. The field as a whole has been undergoing a reckoning, but Mickey has been one of the people who has encouraged his fellow researchers not just to wag their fingers at others, but also to look inward and reflect on their own research practices. He has done so by showing humility and acknowledging where his research has fallen short, and that indicates to me a great deal of integrity.
It is sad to see stereotype threat being one of those findings that seems less and less credible. I once worked as a research assistant on a project related to stereotype threat, and I recall the study going through several iterations because it all needed to be just so -- we were testing stereotypes related to women and math, but the effect was expected to be strongest for women who were actually good at math, so it had to be a test that would be difficult enough to challenge them, but not so challenging that we would end up with a floor effect where no one succeeds. In hindsight, it's so easy to see the rationale of "oh, well we didn't find an effect because the test wasn't hard enough, so let's throw it out and try again" being a tool for p-hacking, file drawer effects, etc. But at the time...it seemed completely normal. Because it was.
I'm no longer in the field, but it is genuinely heartening that the field is heading toward more rigour, more attempts to correct the statistical and methodological mistakes, rather than digging in one's heels and prioritizing theory over evidence. But it's a long road, especially when trying to go back and validate past findings in the literature.
simpaticoder 23 hours ago [-]
>It is sad to see stereotype threat being one of those findings that seems less and less credible.
While I'm sure it is an honest statement, this sentiment is itself concerning. Science is ideally done at a remove - you cannot let yourself want any particular outcome. Desire for an outcome is the beginning of the path to academic dishonesty. The self-restraint required to accept an unwanted answer is perhaps THE most important selection criteria for minting new academics, apart from basic competency. (Acadmeia also has a special, and difficult, responsibility to resist broader cultural trends that seep into a field demanding certain outcomes.)
disgruntledphd2 8 hours ago [-]
> While I'm sure it is an honest statement, this sentiment is itself concerning. Science is ideally done at a remove - you cannot let yourself want any particular outcome.
This basically never happens. I worked in academia for many years, and in psychology for some of that, and I have never met a disinterested scientist.
Like, you need to pick your topics, and the research designs within that etc, and people don't pick things that they don't care about.
This is why (particularly in social/medical/people sciences) blinding is incredibly important to produce better results.
> The self-restraint required to accept an unwanted answer is perhaps THE most important selection criteria for minting new academics,
I agree with this, but the trouble is that this is not what is currently selected for.
I once replicated (four times!) a finding seriously contrary to accepted wisdom and I basically couldn't get it published honestly. I was told to pretend that I had looked for this effect on purpose, and provide some theory around why it could be true. I think that was the point where I realised academia wasn't for me.
Now, the same thing happens in the private sector, but ironically enough, it's much less common.
parpfish 23 hours ago [-]
I don’t think there’s anything wrong with wanting a particular outcome. It wasn’t wrong that people were excited about the prospect of a room temp superconductor a few months back because people knew that if it were true good things were possible. Insisting that you can’t be excited by one potential outcome from a study means that you’ll only study things that don’t have the potential to help
simpaticoder 22 hours ago [-]
There is a useful distinction between "wanting" and "attachment", but one usually turns into the other. Your mention of room temp superconductors is ironic since they have all been precisely attachment-driven frauds that start with wanting.
freehorse 6 hours ago [-]
These are the exceptions imo. Most of it is funding-driven (or sometimes wanting-status-driven) than pure wanting-driven. Most researchers do not even care that much about their actual field and would change the field to do what they really want to do, albeit funding keeps there where they are.
foxbarrington 23 hours ago [-]
I was a psych major in undergrad, and did an experiment as a riff on stereotype threat and got a small effect. I had the participants solve brain teaser puzzles and the only difference was introducing them as coming from 11th grade or graduate level math. Undergrads did worse when they thought it was graduate level.
rozab 10 hours ago [-]
I think that result would ring true for anyone who's worked in education, but it doesn't sound very similar to stereotype threat
peterldowns 2 days ago [-]
Unsurprising. Although this is the first time I can recall reading a psychologist accept culpability for the field’s bad “science” over the last twenty years. Have any of the “anthropology of science” researchers published an explanation of that yet?
aprilthird2021 2 days ago [-]
Everyone says "unsurprising" after the replication fails. Idk, this was a really popular theory that lots of people believed. I doubt you were all so confident back in the heyday of this social science phenomenon.
If tomorrow, they say "growth mindset" is also a non-replicable phenomenon, will HN be full of smug people saying "I knew it all along, lol!"
jdietrich 2 days ago [-]
It might have been surprising at the time, but it's certainly unsurprising in light of the replication crisis. We now know that most findings don't replicate. Anyone who continues to be surprised by the most likely outcome needs to update their priors.
>Biostatisticians Jager and Leek criticized the model as being based on justifiable but arbitrary assumptions rather than empirical data, and did an investigation of their own which calculated that the false positive rate in biomedical studies was estimated to be around 14%, not over 50% as Ioannidis asserted.
renewiltord 2 days ago [-]
That’s just a heterogeneous population with selection bias. Everyone is always convinced because when they’re disproven they stay silent. These days prediction markets allow people to convert beliefs to money so it becomes not very convincing when everyone manages to be perfect at predicting things and is always complaining they aren’t making enough money while simultaneously giving up the chance at doubling their bet on a sure shot.
Combine that with people upgrading uncertainty to certainty post-hoc when debunking comes out and you have these entertaining things. Overall, I’m glad you called it out. Once I wished I had a profile for people’s past guesses to see how actually good they are and now I have Manifold, Kalshi, and Polymarket.
Hasu 2 days ago [-]
I'm not a research psychologist, but my understanding is that growth mindset is already non-replicating.
saurik 2 days ago [-]
FWIW, to me it is "unsurprising" as I can't remember the last time a major psych study actually did replicate, and it seems frankly like the entire field is in shambles. Does that mean that I knew before that this study in specific was false? No. But, that isn't what anyone means when they say "unsurprising"! If you get to the end of a movie and all of the major characters end up alive, and someone else seemed shocked by that fact, you might still explain to them that that's "unsurprising", even if you yourself got to feel the thrill of uncertainty -- or even were concerned for a bit -- while you were watching.
zahlman 1 days ago [-]
My understanding is that "growth mindset" represents a personal philosophy, not a testable hypothesis, so it would be irrelevant here.
It was entirely reasonable to be skeptical of stereotype thread when the concept was new, a priori, An "unsurprising" result is not necessarily one that someone confidently believed. If I flip a coin, I'm not "surprised" when the result is heads, nor when the result is tails.
eslaught 1 days ago [-]
I could be wrong but I believe the idea is that the growth mindset has measurable consequences. I.e., if you believe you can grow, you will learn/adapt more effectively to new situations and ultimately achieve more. It's an empirically verifiable claim that is either true or false, and comes with a pretty straightforward intervention (i.e., teaching people that they can grow) if true.
Of course people may also adopt it as a personal philosophy, but that's separate.
philwelch 2 days ago [-]
Stereotype threat was a “popular theory” because it fit the social and political presuppositions that were fashionable at the time. It’s almost always wise to be skeptical of political fashions or new social science findings even on their own; new social science findings that match political fashions are doubly questionable.
2 days ago [-]
bluGill 2 days ago [-]
Even if you did suspect something was wrong you were careful because science said otherwise. Calling this wrong in public would feel like saying a big rock falls faster than a small rock - something else that seems obvious but science has disproved. And so the only one loudly saying this was bunk where the right wing crackpots (the reasonable people on the right side were much quieter about it because they don't like to argue with science even though it went against their bias) - the right wing crackpots were on this only because the left wing embraced it as a science that confirmed their bias. Unfortunately in this cast the conspiracy was true and so the crackpots won (even though they have no understanding of the real reasons it is false and it doesn't seem to have been a conspiracy).
Let this be a lesson: even if something seems like science and it confirms you bias - that doesn't mean it is true. You should look closer at things you embrace than things you reject lest you embrace a lie.
mistermann 2 days ago [-]
I'm a rather reasonable "on the right" person and arguing about science is literally my hobby, there are few funner things in the world imho.
lupusreal 8 hours ago [-]
The way you've put it, the "crackpot" and "reasonable" right wingers seem to have the same beliefs, but differ in their willingness to speak their mind or the ease with which they're bullied into silence.
philwelch 20 hours ago [-]
> Even if you did suspect something was wrong you were careful because science said otherwise.… And so the only one loudly saying this was bunk where the right wing crackpots (the reasonable people on the right side were much quieter about it because they don't like to argue with science even though it went against their bias) - the right wing crackpots were on this only because the left wing embraced it as a science that confirmed their bias.
If “crackpots” turn out to be right when “reasonable people” and “science” were wrong—and this is far from the only instance of this happening—maybe we should reevaluate some things.
Just because a peer reviewed paper published in a prestigious journal says something doesn’t mean it’s true. Even a survey of multiple peer reviewed papers published over time isn’t necessarily determinative if there are common methodological issues or publishing biases. Yes, a lot of times actual crackpots will make stupid criticisms, but not every criticism is stupid even if it comes from outside the ivory tower.
In particular, whether or not a big rock falls faster than a small rock [1] is a fairly basic question in physics, which has one of the most certain answers. Virtually nothing in psychology, let alone human social psychology, is at that level of certainty, and any psychologist worth their salt will agree with that. Basically any finding in psychology should have a level of certainty somewhere between “yeah, that’s probably mostly true” and “hmm, interesting hypothesis that’s not entirely crazy, I wonder if it holds up”.
[1] Also, the literal question of whether a big rock or a small rock falls faster is trickier than you might assume if you only know the middle school version of the question. If we’re doing this on the moon, so as to dispose with the tricky aerodynamic questions, and we are answering the question from the frame of reference of an astronaut standing on the surface of the moon, the bigger rock actually does fall faster. Both rocks accelerate towards the center of the moon at the same rate, yes, but gravity works both ways. Both rocks pull on the moon but the bigger rock pulls harder, resulting in an extremely small torque on the lunar surface, drawing the side of the moon closer to it very slightly upwards. Which, from the surface frame of reference, is equivalent to the bigger rock falling faster.
mistermann 2 days ago [-]
Be careful to not mistake "theory doesn't replicate" with "theory is not true [in whole or in part]".
trhway 2 days ago [-]
Would you expect the theory of non replicative theories to be replicative or not?
mistermann 2 days ago [-]
Expectations may be part of the problem.
2 days ago [-]
verteu 2 days ago [-]
Also interesting: p28 (labeled p470) of https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/251524591881022... ("Many Labs 2: Investigating Variation in Replicability Across Samples and Settings") shows the results of attempting to replicate 28 published psych results across many different samples.
Unfortunately, "Stereotype Threat" is not one of the effects they attempted to replicate.
whimsicalism 2 days ago [-]
> Let’s be honest: that last sentence was far too generous. Many of us engaged in practices that, in hindsight, were borderline dishonest. We abused experimenter degrees of freedom, engaged in questionable research practices, p-hacked, massaged our data—you pick the euphemism. In contrast, this new replication study followed the most up-to-date best practices in psychological science, eliminating room for flexibility in analysis or results interpretation.
Exploiting researcher degrees of freedom remains unfortunately extremely common. There needs to be some sort of statistical vanguard in the ivory towers enforcing real preregistration and good analysis practices. Strict epistemic discipline is necessary to do real science.
bluGill 2 days ago [-]
The real problem is we have a lot of data. So it is easy to shove it all into a computer and then see what comes out. This is not a bad thing, but it isn't alone a result to publish it is instead justification to do a real study on whatever thing statistics turns up as a significant result to make sure it really is when you properly isolate for that data.
parpfish 23 hours ago [-]
There’s also the issue that in psych, everything is measured through indirect proxies and most of the predictions will be directional. That gives experimenters a LOT of wiggle room.
In physical science you can often directly measure a phenomenon and have a theory that makes very specific predictions
parpfish 1 days ago [-]
early in my psych career, i was actively encouraged to do things that would be considered p-hacking or abusing degrees of freedom. it was seen as a way to not let any data go to waste and potentially 'show off' your cleverness/mathematical chops in the methods section (anybody can just run an ANOVA like they teach in the text book, but look what I can do).
jrmg 2 days ago [-]
I have seen stereotype threat mentioned in educational contexts - justifying the idea that, for example, it’s important not to make (deliberately or inadvertently) things like coding or engineering seem stereotypically masculine. Usually the recommendations are to ensure that if pictures of participants in classes or extracurricular programs are shown in advertising, diverse groups of people are pictured - or that if connections to popular culture are made in educational materials they’re diverse - for example, don’t make all your example coding projects about Star Wars or football.
Anecdotally, I’ve seen with my own eyes, for example, girls getting really into coding only after seeing it demonstrated by enthusiastic women that they can see as role models in ways they would not see men.
I guess this is a far broader thing than stereotype threat - but I’m sure this larger thing is real. I fear that people who themselves have stereotypes in mind about who ‘should’ be into certain topics will use the demise or deemphasis of stereotype threat to justify not making attempts to attract or be friendly to kids who really could flourish in non-stereotypical fields - to their and society’s detriment.
vacuity 3 hours ago [-]
Yep, I agree that this kind of descriptive representation, role model thing is very real and can have significant effects. It's the best kind of evidence that someone of the same demographic likely can/can't achieve similar things.
parpfish 1 days ago [-]
one of my stances has been that psychology comes up with wacky unreplicable findings because there's no central organizing theories for how 'the mind' works and everything is just very black-box.
there are so many studies showing "X manipulation affects Y outcome", but there's not even a hint of an attempt to explain the mechanisms in a meaningful way (cognitive experiments are usually better, but often still guilty of this).
disgruntledphd2 8 hours ago [-]
I actually disagree entirely. The amount of forcing theories that are well ahead of the facts that occurs in academic psychology is off the charts.
We could do with a shut up and experiment movement, to be honest.
In order to build useful theories, we need lots more data, and forcing theories onto data actively holds us back from running the wide variety of experiments necessary for a real theory to emerge.
parpfish 6 hours ago [-]
I agree that there isn’t as much raw experimentation and just observing/documenting psychological phenomena that there should be. I’ve ranted about that here in the past.
I guess my peeve is that nobody really collaborates on theories. Every PI is off working on their own set of pet theories (because that’s how you establish a career), but there’s really no centralizing force to get people to collaborate and work on a shared theory. Physics has the standard model that everyone can use as a common reference point and it’s helpful.
Animats 1 days ago [-]
This is partly the "psychology is the study of college undergrads" problem. The original study was on Stanford students, all of whom have already passed through a very selective filter. That's not a group to extrapolate to the general population. Too many psych studies are done on this convenient population.
It's great seeing the original author admit the problem.
istjohn 22 hours ago [-]
No it's not. This is a completely different thing.
ckemere 2 days ago [-]
I also have a high degree of skepticism about most psychology research. I find it frustrating that the author of this piece raises the issue of the imbalance of gender in STEM jobs as a reason to doubt this particular study. There is nothing about this failure-to-replicate that should allow us to conclude that innate differences in math ability underly that imbalance.
I’d love others to read the replication report and explain why I might be wrong?
anthuswilliams 2 days ago [-]
The author doesn't claim that the imbalance is a reason to doubt the study. His claim is that the imbalance is a reason to doubt the claim that an underlying shift in cultural norms explains why the results might have been valid in 2005 but failed to replicate in 2024.
The author rightly observes that despite the undeniable shift, women are still significantly underrepresented in STEM and therefore that cannot explain the lack of replication. There are still many other reasons besides innate differences that might explain it.
ckemere 2 days ago [-]
I mean come on - if there is a pervasive cultural insinuation of gender differences in ability that leads to women experiencing more test anxiety (I’m not saying there is, but conditioning on that hypothesis) why would we expect a 20 minute PowerPoint to counteract 20 years of people’s life experience!?!?
taeric 2 days ago [-]
I'm curious what the impact for most people's mindsets will be here? I'm imagining that it relates to what many people consider "talent" with kids? I know that has been an odd trend in some states trying to get rid of "gifted" programs and such. I have largely remained hopeful that that was not nearly as prevalent as online represents.
akoboldfrying 2 days ago [-]
>this study (still a preprint) was preregistered (meaning all methods and analyses were specified before the data were collected)
This is the way forward -- preregistered studies. That, together with a promise from the publisher to publish the result regardless of whether the effect is found to be significant.
When you think about it, the incentives for publishing in science have been wrong all along. The future will be different: It will be full of null results, of ideas people had that didn't pan out. But we'll be able to trust those results.
gotoeleven 24 hours ago [-]
When I first heard about this stuff 20 years ago, it was being presented as "The differences between groups A and B go away when stereotype threat is removed" which is not what the original paper says. The original paper claims that whatever difference there is between groups A and B, it will be larger when measured under the condition of stereotype threat which I guess is plausible but much less interesting.
Part of the context of that time was that _The Bell Curve_ had been published fairly recently and there was great desire to disprove it and anyone doing that could count on lots of attention and speaking fees. So the grift was to present stereotype threat as this grand solution that could resolve all racial differences.
> When Black students at Stanford University were told that a test was diagnostic of intellectual ability, they performed worse than their white counterparts. However, when this stereotype threat was ostensibly removed—by simply framing the test as a measure of problem-solving rather than intelligence—the performance gap Black and white students nearly vanished.
Just reading this description motivates me to reject the study out of hand. It's not plausible that university-level students responded meaningfully differently to being told "this is a test of problem-solving skill" versus "this is a test of intelligence" because it is commonly understood that problem-solving skill is a major component of intelligence.
>it also became the darling of the political left who now had an answer to prevailing views of group differences held by the political right. This is partly because shortly before stereotype threat took its turn in the spotlight, Charles Murray and Richard Herrnstein published The Bell Curve... the octogenarian Murray is still considered a pariah, shouted down and deplatformed from talks he tries to deliver at respectable colleges to this day.
The characterization of Murray's views in the last several years has been grossly uncharitable and seems entirely disconnected from his actual arguments. It's strange that the book is 30 years old, but has seemed politically relevant for much less time than that.
kens 24 hours ago [-]
Many years ago, long before "The Bell Curve", I spent way, way too much time reading Murray's book "Losing Ground" (1984) and going to the library to read the papers he referenced and reading the papers those papers referenced and then the papers those papers referenced. My conclusion was that his book is junk. My second conclusion was that citations are like a game of telephone and every time someone cites something, it changes slightly, so don't trust anything until you get to a primary source, and maybe don't even trust that. (This second conclusion applies in general, not just to Murray.) My third conclusion was that arguing online is a waste of time and approximately nobody cares about actual facts.
peterfirefly 2 hours ago [-]
> My second conclusion was that citations are like a game of telephone and every time someone cites something, it changes slightly, so don't trust anything until you get to a primary source, and maybe don't even trust that. (This second conclusion applies in general, not just to Murray.)
This part is definitely true. It has also been my experience -- but more so within academic areas with sloppy "researchers" and political problems. Linguistics is pretty good, gender "research" is awful. Intelligence research is pretty damn good, social "science" and psychology (outside of psychometrics) is awful. Economics is awful, apart from the basic ideas of competition, capitalism, and low taxes. Keynesianism is largely a fraud.
> My conclusion was that his book is junk.
This is unlikely to be true.
intalentive 19 hours ago [-]
Your interlocutor might not care about facts but the audience might. I’ve learned interesting new things from reading the back-and-forth of others going at it online.
aprilthird2021 2 days ago [-]
Eh, I mean the stereotype being "activated" is that Black people are less intelligent / have lower IQs, not that they lack problem-solving skills.
Even the replication attempt had two scenarios:
1 where women were told the test was to establish performance levels on the test between men and women
1 where they were told the test was a test of problem-solving skill (or primed to disregard negative stereotypes before the test).
So even the replication has the incorrect framing you worried about. I tend to believe the problem wasn't this, but the way the field was lax about sampling, methodology, etc. After all, there were many stereotype threat studies, not just this one, boasting similar results. And they didn't all use that framing.
andrewflnr 1 days ago [-]
Not to necessarily defend the study here, but I don't think that's a good reason to dismiss the study out of hand. Words themselves, the actual sounds independent of their technical meaning, still have very strong, deep-rooted associations that are hard to fight even if you've been educated. The subtext and day-to-day use of "intelligence" and "problem solving skill" are different, and color the way you think of them even if you know they're technically synonymous (which, do note, they're not quite). That association operates at the same deep level at which the supposed effect works.
2 days ago [-]
rat87 2 days ago [-]
[flagged]
gotoeleven 22 hours ago [-]
This is a bizarre canard that is always presented whenever this book comes up. How does it help anyone to pretend group differences don't exist? We tried to turbo charge this make believe with DEI for the past ten years and its been a disaster for everyone except people selling DEI books and seminars.
BriggyDwiggs42 17 hours ago [-]
That book was not very good science or science interpretation and didn’t do a great job of proving that meaningful race-iq differences exist. I also don’t know where the disaster is, could you elucidate some of the cataclysmic results of DEI?
gotoeleven 16 hours ago [-]
I dont think you're very familiar with the literature on this. IQ as a metric is pretty much the most robust psychometric that exists. It's repeatable in that it is varies little for an individual over the course of their life, and predictive, in a statistical sense, of many poor life outcomes. Differences in this metric between various groups are statistically significant. None of this is controversial among anyone who studies this stuff. But it's politically embarrassing and attracts angry know-nothings when its discussed so people don't talk about it.
Your contention "That book...didn’t do a great job of proving that meaningful race-iq differences exist" makes me think you haven't even skimmed it and probably just read some article from The Nation about it. These differences exist and they are well known and that they exist is not even controversial. The book itself is hardly even about that, it's mostly about what IQ correlates with and is predictive of and tries to grapple with the question of how society can be organized fairly given these facts.
BriggyDwiggs42 13 hours ago [-]
I’ve seen and read extensive reviews, but yeah I have not read it. I agree that’s a blind spot, so I’ll go ahead and read the book then get back to you after. Give me like a week.
peterfirefly 2 hours ago [-]
I read it in 2000 (or early 2001) and I was shocked to see how different it was from what it was purported to be by those who had the megaphone.
If you want a newer (and shorter) book about intelligence, I can recommend Ian Deary's "Intelligence: A Very Short Introduction" from 2001. If you can read between the lines you can see how careful he has to be to avoid provoking the "anti" racists and those who have Bad Things about The Bell Curve.
I can also recommend the status reports from a long-term study Deary founded called the Lothian Birth Cohort Studies. They found old 11+ exams in Scotland and studied the people who had taken those exams decades earlier. Turns out IQ scores are really, really stable (until people are so old they suddenly aren't) and really, really predictive. Their status reports are more accessible than most academic papers so you should be able to read (or at least skim) them without prior study of the subject. The project has also resulted in lots of proper papers (many of them really interesting) if you are more curious.
The overall results of more than a century of intelligence studies are:
- intelligence is real
- it is mostly a single, universal thing
- it is the same single, universal thing in all population groups (upper class, lower class, educated, uneducated, religion, skill colour, etc)
- it has huge (but not total) predictive power
- of all the things we can measure, it is the one that has the most predictive power
- it even predicts lifespan and health!
- IQ is a decent (but not perfect) measure of intelligence
- IQ can be measured quickly, cheaply, and fairly reliably
- some IQ tests are better than others
- intelligence can't be taught
- schooling does affect scores in some IQ tests (and the effect fades away after people leave school)
- it is inheritable
- it is *biologically* inheritable
- it is essentially not *socially* inheritable
- it *is* affected by the environment but not (directly) by socioeconomic status or reading or schooling
- it really, truly can't be taught
- the environmental effects are things like food quality, water quality, parasites, diseases, avoiding poisons
- the correlations with genes are so clear that it would be fraudulent to claim it wasn't genetically inheritable
- there are extremely many genes involved
- many of them come in many, many variants
- it is therefore still quite hard to predict people's IQ from their genes
- we are steadily becoming better at it the more people we test and the better we get at cheaply looking at genes
- most of our info about this comes from studies that use cheap SNP detection chips instead of whole genome sequencing
- most of the income differences (and life quality differences) in modern societies are mediated by IQ differences
- yes, some population groups really are more intelligent than others (East Asians versus Northern Europeans, Ashkhenazim versus other Europeans -- plus the truly taboo comparisons)
- lots of places have high-IQ subpopulations who look a lot like their background populations
rat87 13 hours ago [-]
Differences in IQ currently exist, they're not based on racial genetics.
The Bell Curve isn't about organizing society fairly it's about justifying what is clearly an unfair and unjust society as natural and impossible to improve and therefore good
Executive Summary of Article: "new data now reveal what many of us suspected for at least ten years: stereotype threat does not replicate, and it does not undermine academic performance in the ways we thought."
The Stereotype Threat: "individuals who are part of a negatively stereotyped group can, in certain situations, experience anxiety about confirming those stereotypes, leading paradoxically to underperformance, thus confirming the disparaging stereotype." for example, if you remind a woman of the "Women are bad at math" stereotype, they will perform worse on a math test than if they are not reminded of that stereotype.
2 days ago [-]
trhway 2 days ago [-]
[flagged]
armoredkitten 2 days ago [-]
This has been an ongoing situation since around 2010. The field has been undergoing a huge shift in terms of re-evaluating research practices and past findings. It genuinely has nothing to do with national politics.
Also, the author is Canadian. So there's that, too.
trhway 1 days ago [-]
>This has been an ongoing situation since around 2010.
Exactly. Yet the time to declare your change of heart is somehow now :)
>Also, the author is Canadian. So there's that, too.
Search for his grants brings grants from US, he studied and did PhD in US and still affiliated with NYU, and the major and most valuable part of his network of academia connections is US, his private foundation in USA, etc. If he isn't in-line with the prevalent winds in US, he will be reduced to nothing, just a professor in some Uni, not a renown researcher with his own Wikipedia page, grants and conferences in US, etc.
buttercraft 22 hours ago [-]
FFS, This is in response to new data from a Registered Replication Report that is still in preprint.
trhway 22 hours ago [-]
Yes, man, for 20+ years you are peddling some politically favored theory, supposedly doing experimental studies (by 2013 already getting at least $3.75M dollars in grants - https://www.apa.org/monitor/2013/09/apf-grant ), and you have no idea that your theory is total BS until suddenly somebody else failed to reproduce yours and/or similar studies, and that is exactly when political climate is changing 180. It isn't a science, it is an ideology department serving whatever political regime is in power at any given moment.
buttercraft 15 hours ago [-]
Once again, that is incorrect. It's all spelled out if you read what he wrote.
pessimizer 2 days ago [-]
[flagged]
systemstops 2 days ago [-]
Inherited wealth was actually pretty rate in the history of this country, and is not as common now as many people think. Generational wealth until recently did not exist for most people.
whimsicalism 1 days ago [-]
Large portions of existing wealth are inherited, most estimates putting it somewhere in the 30-60% range of all private wealth in the US
I don't think that's what people have been taking away from the idea of stereotype threat at all. I think it's been much more likely for people to think, "Oh, instead of unchangeable genetic traits, the difference in outcomes might someday be reduced through deliberate social change.
underlipton 2 days ago [-]
Putting on my contrarian hat: the studies he mentions seem to be concerned with whether testing conditions affect stereotype threat effects. Logically, they can't prove or deny the phenomenon's existence, only whether testing conditions result in changes to test outcomes that could track with interventions to reduce stereotype threat. Much of what we know about how behavioral effects of identity comes with the understanding that the latter is something people carry with them, regardless of local or recent events. If there's a problem with stereotype threat as a concept, it's that it's positioned as a superficial effector that can be manipulated easily, rather than the surface level manifestation of complex interactions between self-identity, personal values, and cultural expectations. Based on the author's disclosure about his PhD thesis, he seems to be someone who capitalized on the former characterization, so of course he throws the baby out with the bathwater when it no longer works for those purposes. We might be looking at an ass-covering write-up.
>Let’s play “Find the Lebowski quotes game” again!
So, yeah, I find this a deeply unserious blog post.
bluGill 2 days ago [-]
He must throw the baby out with the bathwater - so far there is no evidence for anything here. The only alternative is to rerun the study, doing it correctly this time and then do a correct analysis. Until then you need to say "I don't know" when asked about this as that is all science allows. Maybe the rest of the baby they are throwing out will replicate and thus is correct - but nobody knows that and so we cannot say anything with confidence right now.
I'm assuming you are not aware of studies not mentioned here that replicate - I'm not in this field and so I would not know where to look. I'm guessing that you also are not in this field and are looking for some way to allow your bias to become true despite these issues - but of course I might be wrong.
underlipton 2 days ago [-]
Let me analogize. This is a blog post that claims that racism isn't real. As proof, the author explains that none of the studies that show a reduction in racism when you remind people that Michael Jordan and Beyonce exist can be replicated. Well, okay, sure. And the guy who earned a doctorate with the thesis, "Does Playing Jackson 5 Make People Less Racist?" might want to turn this into, "Racism does not exist," as a way to distance himself from his own terrible scholarship. (Also, did you find his Marvel Cinematic Universe Easter Eggs?)
So, thus far, there is actually not enough evidence to throw the, "Racism exists," baby out with the, "Do these interventions affect racist belief?" bathwater. And since we're second-guessing biases, it's super weird that you're always in comment sections of (politically-charged) articles concerning fields you're not in.
buttercraft 22 hours ago [-]
> This is a blog post that claims that racism isn't real.
No, it does not make that claim.
shermantanktop 2 days ago [-]
I think that contrarian hat may include a no-true-scotsman badge.
If stereotype threat is real, we should be able to have a replicatable study result that confirms it, right? We're not just limited to logical inference, I hope.
underlipton 2 days ago [-]
If the studies are concerned with determining that stereotype threat exists, sure.
Rendered at 20:42:41 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) with Vercel.
It sounds more like another day in vegas for the psychology field of that era. This was not an exception, and often researchers were not even aware they were doing something wrong. Even nowadays psychology researchers are clueless as to what really p-hacking and bad statistical practices mean. And because they consider themselves honest researchers, while these practices are obviously dishonest, they do not consider themselves actually doing anything like that - but somebody else may! it is always somebody else. Now it is not as bad as that period, and there is more awareness about the most blunt violations of statistical rigour, but the actual understanding is still low for the median researcher so many grey-to-black zones exist still.
Unfortunately true. In other words: "often researchers were too stupid to ever have been let into university as freshmen".
It is sad to see stereotype threat being one of those findings that seems less and less credible. I once worked as a research assistant on a project related to stereotype threat, and I recall the study going through several iterations because it all needed to be just so -- we were testing stereotypes related to women and math, but the effect was expected to be strongest for women who were actually good at math, so it had to be a test that would be difficult enough to challenge them, but not so challenging that we would end up with a floor effect where no one succeeds. In hindsight, it's so easy to see the rationale of "oh, well we didn't find an effect because the test wasn't hard enough, so let's throw it out and try again" being a tool for p-hacking, file drawer effects, etc. But at the time...it seemed completely normal. Because it was.
I'm no longer in the field, but it is genuinely heartening that the field is heading toward more rigour, more attempts to correct the statistical and methodological mistakes, rather than digging in one's heels and prioritizing theory over evidence. But it's a long road, especially when trying to go back and validate past findings in the literature.
While I'm sure it is an honest statement, this sentiment is itself concerning. Science is ideally done at a remove - you cannot let yourself want any particular outcome. Desire for an outcome is the beginning of the path to academic dishonesty. The self-restraint required to accept an unwanted answer is perhaps THE most important selection criteria for minting new academics, apart from basic competency. (Acadmeia also has a special, and difficult, responsibility to resist broader cultural trends that seep into a field demanding certain outcomes.)
This basically never happens. I worked in academia for many years, and in psychology for some of that, and I have never met a disinterested scientist.
Like, you need to pick your topics, and the research designs within that etc, and people don't pick things that they don't care about.
This is why (particularly in social/medical/people sciences) blinding is incredibly important to produce better results.
> The self-restraint required to accept an unwanted answer is perhaps THE most important selection criteria for minting new academics,
I agree with this, but the trouble is that this is not what is currently selected for.
I once replicated (four times!) a finding seriously contrary to accepted wisdom and I basically couldn't get it published honestly. I was told to pretend that I had looked for this effect on purpose, and provide some theory around why it could be true. I think that was the point where I realised academia wasn't for me.
Now, the same thing happens in the private sector, but ironically enough, it's much less common.
If tomorrow, they say "growth mindset" is also a non-replicable phenomenon, will HN be full of smug people saying "I knew it all along, lol!"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Why_Most_Published_Research_Fi...
>Biostatisticians Jager and Leek criticized the model as being based on justifiable but arbitrary assumptions rather than empirical data, and did an investigation of their own which calculated that the false positive rate in biomedical studies was estimated to be around 14%, not over 50% as Ioannidis asserted.
Combine that with people upgrading uncertainty to certainty post-hoc when debunking comes out and you have these entertaining things. Overall, I’m glad you called it out. Once I wished I had a profile for people’s past guesses to see how actually good they are and now I have Manifold, Kalshi, and Polymarket.
It was entirely reasonable to be skeptical of stereotype thread when the concept was new, a priori, An "unsurprising" result is not necessarily one that someone confidently believed. If I flip a coin, I'm not "surprised" when the result is heads, nor when the result is tails.
Of course people may also adopt it as a personal philosophy, but that's separate.
Let this be a lesson: even if something seems like science and it confirms you bias - that doesn't mean it is true. You should look closer at things you embrace than things you reject lest you embrace a lie.
If “crackpots” turn out to be right when “reasonable people” and “science” were wrong—and this is far from the only instance of this happening—maybe we should reevaluate some things.
Just because a peer reviewed paper published in a prestigious journal says something doesn’t mean it’s true. Even a survey of multiple peer reviewed papers published over time isn’t necessarily determinative if there are common methodological issues or publishing biases. Yes, a lot of times actual crackpots will make stupid criticisms, but not every criticism is stupid even if it comes from outside the ivory tower.
In particular, whether or not a big rock falls faster than a small rock [1] is a fairly basic question in physics, which has one of the most certain answers. Virtually nothing in psychology, let alone human social psychology, is at that level of certainty, and any psychologist worth their salt will agree with that. Basically any finding in psychology should have a level of certainty somewhere between “yeah, that’s probably mostly true” and “hmm, interesting hypothesis that’s not entirely crazy, I wonder if it holds up”.
[1] Also, the literal question of whether a big rock or a small rock falls faster is trickier than you might assume if you only know the middle school version of the question. If we’re doing this on the moon, so as to dispose with the tricky aerodynamic questions, and we are answering the question from the frame of reference of an astronaut standing on the surface of the moon, the bigger rock actually does fall faster. Both rocks accelerate towards the center of the moon at the same rate, yes, but gravity works both ways. Both rocks pull on the moon but the bigger rock pulls harder, resulting in an extremely small torque on the lunar surface, drawing the side of the moon closer to it very slightly upwards. Which, from the surface frame of reference, is equivalent to the bigger rock falling faster.
Unfortunately, "Stereotype Threat" is not one of the effects they attempted to replicate.
Exploiting researcher degrees of freedom remains unfortunately extremely common. There needs to be some sort of statistical vanguard in the ivory towers enforcing real preregistration and good analysis practices. Strict epistemic discipline is necessary to do real science.
In physical science you can often directly measure a phenomenon and have a theory that makes very specific predictions
Anecdotally, I’ve seen with my own eyes, for example, girls getting really into coding only after seeing it demonstrated by enthusiastic women that they can see as role models in ways they would not see men.
I guess this is a far broader thing than stereotype threat - but I’m sure this larger thing is real. I fear that people who themselves have stereotypes in mind about who ‘should’ be into certain topics will use the demise or deemphasis of stereotype threat to justify not making attempts to attract or be friendly to kids who really could flourish in non-stereotypical fields - to their and society’s detriment.
there are so many studies showing "X manipulation affects Y outcome", but there's not even a hint of an attempt to explain the mechanisms in a meaningful way (cognitive experiments are usually better, but often still guilty of this).
We could do with a shut up and experiment movement, to be honest.
In order to build useful theories, we need lots more data, and forcing theories onto data actively holds us back from running the wide variety of experiments necessary for a real theory to emerge.
I guess my peeve is that nobody really collaborates on theories. Every PI is off working on their own set of pet theories (because that’s how you establish a career), but there’s really no centralizing force to get people to collaborate and work on a shared theory. Physics has the standard model that everyone can use as a common reference point and it’s helpful.
It's great seeing the original author admit the problem.
I’d love others to read the replication report and explain why I might be wrong?
The author rightly observes that despite the undeniable shift, women are still significantly underrepresented in STEM and therefore that cannot explain the lack of replication. There are still many other reasons besides innate differences that might explain it.
This is the way forward -- preregistered studies. That, together with a promise from the publisher to publish the result regardless of whether the effect is found to be significant.
When you think about it, the incentives for publishing in science have been wrong all along. The future will be different: It will be full of null results, of ideas people had that didn't pan out. But we'll be able to trust those results.
Part of the context of that time was that _The Bell Curve_ had been published fairly recently and there was great desire to disprove it and anyone doing that could count on lots of attention and speaking fees. So the grift was to present stereotype threat as this grand solution that could resolve all racial differences.
> When Black students at Stanford University were told that a test was diagnostic of intellectual ability, they performed worse than their white counterparts. However, when this stereotype threat was ostensibly removed—by simply framing the test as a measure of problem-solving rather than intelligence—the performance gap Black and white students nearly vanished.
Just reading this description motivates me to reject the study out of hand. It's not plausible that university-level students responded meaningfully differently to being told "this is a test of problem-solving skill" versus "this is a test of intelligence" because it is commonly understood that problem-solving skill is a major component of intelligence.
>it also became the darling of the political left who now had an answer to prevailing views of group differences held by the political right. This is partly because shortly before stereotype threat took its turn in the spotlight, Charles Murray and Richard Herrnstein published The Bell Curve... the octogenarian Murray is still considered a pariah, shouted down and deplatformed from talks he tries to deliver at respectable colleges to this day.
The characterization of Murray's views in the last several years has been grossly uncharitable and seems entirely disconnected from his actual arguments. It's strange that the book is 30 years old, but has seemed politically relevant for much less time than that.
This part is definitely true. It has also been my experience -- but more so within academic areas with sloppy "researchers" and political problems. Linguistics is pretty good, gender "research" is awful. Intelligence research is pretty damn good, social "science" and psychology (outside of psychometrics) is awful. Economics is awful, apart from the basic ideas of competition, capitalism, and low taxes. Keynesianism is largely a fraud.
> My conclusion was that his book is junk.
This is unlikely to be true.
Even the replication attempt had two scenarios:
1 where women were told the test was to establish performance levels on the test between men and women
1 where they were told the test was a test of problem-solving skill (or primed to disregard negative stereotypes before the test).
So even the replication has the incorrect framing you worried about. I tend to believe the problem wasn't this, but the way the field was lax about sampling, methodology, etc. After all, there were many stereotype threat studies, not just this one, boasting similar results. And they didn't all use that framing.
Your contention "That book...didn’t do a great job of proving that meaningful race-iq differences exist" makes me think you haven't even skimmed it and probably just read some article from The Nation about it. These differences exist and they are well known and that they exist is not even controversial. The book itself is hardly even about that, it's mostly about what IQ correlates with and is predictive of and tries to grapple with the question of how society can be organized fairly given these facts.
If you want a newer (and shorter) book about intelligence, I can recommend Ian Deary's "Intelligence: A Very Short Introduction" from 2001. If you can read between the lines you can see how careful he has to be to avoid provoking the "anti" racists and those who have Bad Things about The Bell Curve.
I can also recommend the status reports from a long-term study Deary founded called the Lothian Birth Cohort Studies. They found old 11+ exams in Scotland and studied the people who had taken those exams decades earlier. Turns out IQ scores are really, really stable (until people are so old they suddenly aren't) and really, really predictive. Their status reports are more accessible than most academic papers so you should be able to read (or at least skim) them without prior study of the subject. The project has also resulted in lots of proper papers (many of them really interesting) if you are more curious.
The overall results of more than a century of intelligence studies are:
The Bell Curve isn't about organizing society fairly it's about justifying what is clearly an unfair and unjust society as natural and impossible to improve and therefore good
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/27/15695060/s...
https://www.vox.com/2018/4/10/17182692/bell-curve-charles-mu...
The Stereotype Threat: "individuals who are part of a negatively stereotyped group can, in certain situations, experience anxiety about confirming those stereotypes, leading paradoxically to underperformance, thus confirming the disparaging stereotype." for example, if you remind a woman of the "Women are bad at math" stereotype, they will perform worse on a math test than if they are not reminded of that stereotype.
Also, the author is Canadian. So there's that, too.
Exactly. Yet the time to declare your change of heart is somehow now :)
>Also, the author is Canadian. So there's that, too.
Search for his grants brings grants from US, he studied and did PhD in US and still affiliated with NYU, and the major and most valuable part of his network of academia connections is US, his private foundation in USA, etc. If he isn't in-line with the prevalent winds in US, he will be reduced to nothing, just a professor in some Uni, not a renown researcher with his own Wikipedia page, grants and conferences in US, etc.
e: not sure why this gets a downvote https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2019/02/06/people-l...
>Let’s play “Find the Lebowski quotes game” again!
So, yeah, I find this a deeply unserious blog post.
I'm assuming you are not aware of studies not mentioned here that replicate - I'm not in this field and so I would not know where to look. I'm guessing that you also are not in this field and are looking for some way to allow your bias to become true despite these issues - but of course I might be wrong.
So, thus far, there is actually not enough evidence to throw the, "Racism exists," baby out with the, "Do these interventions affect racist belief?" bathwater. And since we're second-guessing biases, it's super weird that you're always in comment sections of (politically-charged) articles concerning fields you're not in.
No, it does not make that claim.
If stereotype threat is real, we should be able to have a replicatable study result that confirms it, right? We're not just limited to logical inference, I hope.