The differences are blurring between gambling, stock speculation, and investing. If Kalshi is gambling, how does it differ from trading traditional financial instruments that are affected by unknown future events like Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, inflation data, and stock market indices?
xmprt 13 minutes ago [-]
One is betting on downstream outcomes whereas another is betting on specific events.
miltonlost 5 minutes ago [-]
The differences between "gambling on sports" and "a contract on the end results of a sports game" is the same as the difference between "driving a car" and a sovereign citizen's "traveling in a conveyance". You are playing semantic games for what are the same substance. You are conflating the issue of sports gambling (which is what the law suit is about) with interest rates and saying that it's all gambling/stock market. It's not cute or logical.
rolosa 16 minutes ago [-]
Don't be obtuse. Kalshi and Polymarket are 100% gambling. You don't need a PhD to see that.
ericyd 5 minutes ago [-]
Yes, but I interpret the comment to mean that stock trading isn't that much different
kube-system 2 minutes ago [-]
Financial assets, and especially stocks, are instruments to trade something of financial value.
viccis 15 seconds ago [-]
Stock trading isn't gambling. It's just owning assets that can change in value. Options trading is much closer to gambling, and I would say the biggest difference between it and Kalshi and similar gambling companies is that it's much more rigorously (if nowhere near perfectly) regulated.
DivingForGold 39 minutes ago [-]
The Supreme Court of The US has the final say on this.
ares623 35 minutes ago [-]
The ultimate bet
hnav 19 minutes ago [-]
Ironically couldn't find a market for it on either kalshi or polymarket
paxy 18 minutes ago [-]
The Supreme Court has no say over a state choosing to ban gambling.
15155 9 minutes ago [-]
What is the Supremacy Clause?
kube-system 15 minutes ago [-]
I do agree that prediction markets are BS gambling pretending to be something else.
But factually, SCOTUS does have authority over the application of the supremacy clause.
VanTheBrand 15 minutes ago [-]
Except that the Supreme Court does have a say over whether or not the Supreme Court has a say over a state choosing to ban gambling.
greeneggs 10 minutes ago [-]
According to the article, Kalshi paid Trump a $3 million bribe. Do we have any idea what bribes the Republican Supreme Court Justices have taken from Kalshi?
mcmcmc 20 minutes ago [-]
Great, the most corrupt court ever.
yieldcrv 27 minutes ago [-]
Ninth circuit case, second circuit case, and third circuit case are all different outcomes because they are judging state laws in federal courts, different states within their respective circuit
I think Nevada’s and Arkansas was also mentioned - I guess Arkansas is in the fifth circuit - those are more comprehensive and broad than New Jersey’s in the third circuit
Ultimately I expect Kalshi will have the swaps treatment reaffirmed, and the supremacy clause will override most of the state laws
But for Nevada and Arkansas residents it will be unworkable, and they will just block some forms of bets for residents in those states
kube-system 18 minutes ago [-]
Unless Congress now acts
yieldcrv 11 minutes ago [-]
perhaps, enough people are annoyed at the distortion to sports advertising and their friend’s behaviors that they could get some republican senators support for the 60 vote threshold
otherwise Democrats are still without power to unilaterally pass laws
have their been any proposals to deal with this? bills that didnt make it out of committee?
something as simple as adding some contracts to the ban in the onion futures act I think is a mistake
kube-system 4 minutes ago [-]
Some of the states that have issues with Kalshi are red, e.g Utah. There’s a serious states rights issue here as well.
redanddead 33 minutes ago [-]
Trump fucked them and their investors
nazgulsenpai 32 minutes ago [-]
I'm against government regulation of gambling in principle but in reality, they have an uphill battle trying to convince any reasonable person that 'its platform offers “swaps” that can only be regulated by the US Commodity Futures Exchange (CFTC)'.
bgun 19 minutes ago [-]
How do you feel about government regulation of heroin? Do your principles apply equally across all forms of “personal responsibility”?
KerrAvon 6 minutes ago [-]
How do you feel about government regulation of abortion? We could play this game all day.
gazpachotron 10 minutes ago [-]
[dead]
cestith 34 minutes ago [-]
These betting marketplaces that take any proposition are either dealing in gambling or futures and derivatives trading. So if they don't fall under gambling laws and regulations, they can deal with the SEC digging into their businesses instead. They might want to pick their battles.
yieldcrv 31 minutes ago [-]
CFTC, which isn’t as heavy handed as the SEC even under democrats
SEC is down for whatever right now too by the way
Analemma_ 27 minutes ago [-]
> CFTC, which isn’t as heavy handed as the SEC even under democrats
In ordinary times when the CFTC is just regulating things like pork belly futures, sure. But crypto and sports gambling are extremely politicized and red-coded now; Kalshi shouldn't expect the same sleepy regulation for them as for ordinary commodities.
Honestly I don't see their endgame. Even if they win these cases in court and fall under CFTC jurisdiction, that only matters if they have friendlies in the White House and the next administration will have knives out for them.
joshheitzman 14 minutes ago [-]
There is a bitcoin futures contract on the CME and its been there since 2017.
do business as long as possible and adapt to the next strongman, like in every other country?
nobody in business cares that the people are married to “due process” to respect the edicts, versus some other governance structure. just delay and adapt is the whole game. the corporation is a conduit to flow revenue to board, executives and functionally shareholders (but dividends are now uncommon). The corporation can become a husk if it fails to adapt and that wont be the current people’s problem if they have extracted substantial wealth out before then
Rendered at 19:16:58 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) with Vercel.
But factually, SCOTUS does have authority over the application of the supremacy clause.
I think Nevada’s and Arkansas was also mentioned - I guess Arkansas is in the fifth circuit - those are more comprehensive and broad than New Jersey’s in the third circuit
Ultimately I expect Kalshi will have the swaps treatment reaffirmed, and the supremacy clause will override most of the state laws
But for Nevada and Arkansas residents it will be unworkable, and they will just block some forms of bets for residents in those states
otherwise Democrats are still without power to unilaterally pass laws
have their been any proposals to deal with this? bills that didnt make it out of committee?
something as simple as adding some contracts to the ban in the onion futures act I think is a mistake
SEC is down for whatever right now too by the way
In ordinary times when the CFTC is just regulating things like pork belly futures, sure. But crypto and sports gambling are extremely politicized and red-coded now; Kalshi shouldn't expect the same sleepy regulation for them as for ordinary commodities.
Honestly I don't see their endgame. Even if they win these cases in court and fall under CFTC jurisdiction, that only matters if they have friendlies in the White House and the next administration will have knives out for them.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin/bi...
https://www.fxcm.com/markets/insights/bitcoin-futures-produc...
nobody in business cares that the people are married to “due process” to respect the edicts, versus some other governance structure. just delay and adapt is the whole game. the corporation is a conduit to flow revenue to board, executives and functionally shareholders (but dividends are now uncommon). The corporation can become a husk if it fails to adapt and that wont be the current people’s problem if they have extracted substantial wealth out before then